COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Jack Parkman]

31 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

Shutting down society for weeks on end would destroy the world economically, causing more poverty, death and destruction.

That's probably going to happen regardless,  either because of billions of people getting sick or because world leaders decide to do it. It's out of control. At this point, might as well be proactive and minimize the damage. 

If the healthcare system becomes overwhelmed, if you have severe symptoms you're a goner. Whatever measures are necessary to prevent the healthcare systems worldwide from being overwhelmed should be taken today(as in the next five seconds). 

Nobody at this point, should we continue on our current trajectory, should be expecting to be able to go to a hospital if they need to do so. 

 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Jenksismyhero]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

No it really isn't. It was a confined space, but once lots of people got sick there was rapid intervention and plenty of available medical supplies. That's why we're coming down on you right now - because there are far worse case scenarios building right now.

You may be right, but you also may be assuming too much here. We know this virus can infect someone and they have no symptoms or just mild cold-like symptoms. It's entirely possibly the entire ship was exposed, so intervention/quarantine did nothing.  What's the timeline of when people became infected, when interventions were put in place and when the deaths came? Are you confident interventions prevented people from being exposed/getting infected?

 

[Jenksismyhero]

21 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

That's probably going to happen regardless,  either because of billions of people getting sick or because world leaders decide to do it. It's out of control. At this point, might as well be proactive and minimize the damage. 

If the healthcare system becomes overwhelmed, if you have severe symptoms you're a goner. Whatever measures are necessary to prevent the healthcare systems worldwide from being overwhelmed should be taken today(as in the next five seconds). 

Nobody at this point, should we continue on our current trajectory, should be expecting to be able to go to a hospital if they need to do so. 

 

So far as I understand it, there is no treatment available here...it's just like the flu. You drink fluids, stay hydrated and power through. People going to hospital is only a good form of controlled quarantine, but is there some other medical benefit I'm missing for the average person? For an old person I could see it, but not for most of the population.

[bmags]

7 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

So far as I understand it, there is no treatment available here...it's just like the flu. You drink fluids, stay hydrated and power through. People going to hospital is only a good form of controlled quarantine, but is there some other medical benefit I'm missing for the average person? For an old person I could see it, but not for most of the population.

Respiration is incredibly important to keeping afflicted people alive. Including for the worst cases oxygenation directly into blood cells.

[Jack Parkman]

25 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

So far as I understand it, there is no treatment available here...it's just like the flu. You drink fluids, stay hydrated and power through. People going to hospital is only a good form of controlled quarantine, but is there some other medical benefit I'm missing for the average person? For an old person I could see it, but not for most of the population.

Not true. Based on what I've heard, anyone over the age of 25 is at risk of developing severe symptoms. Really, the only age groups that are safe are ppl in their teens and early 20s.

In China, they have had deaths in people as young as their late 20s. 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[ptatc]

13 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

So far as I understand it, there is no treatment available here...it's just like the flu. You drink fluids, stay hydrated and power through. People going to hospital is only a good form of controlled quarantine, but is there some other medical benefit I'm missing for the average person? For an old person I could see it, but not for most of the population.

There will be some that will need medical treatment for severe dehydration.  However as you said it's mostly immunocompromised people not just age related.

[ptatc]

17 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Not true. Based on what I've heard, anyone over the age of 25 is at risk of developing severe symptoms. Really, the only age groups that are safe are ppl in their teens and early 20s.

In China, they have had deaths in people as young as their late 20s. 

Deaths in the 20 -50 range are rare and typically are people that have a concomitant issue comprimising their immune system ranging from infections to cardiopulmonary issues. It's rare that any healthy adult would die but they can happen.

[Jack Parkman]

3 hours ago, ptatc said:

Deaths in the 20 -50 range are rare and typically are people that have a concomitant issue comprimising their immune system ranging from infections to cardiopulmonary issues. It's rare that any healthy adult would die but they can happen.

The thing is that there are a lot of people walking around who don't even know they have those issues. Also, especially in the US, a truly "healthy adult" is rare due to obesity and diet. 

People in their 30s are dying of heart disease. My aunt is a cardiac ICU nurse and I hear more and more stories of people in their 30s and 40s just dropping dead. 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[mqr]

The death rate is going to be a LOT higher than 2-3% when no one can get an ICU bed

[Balta1701]

25 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Deaths in the 20 -50 range are rare and typically are people that have a concomitant issue comprimising their immune system ranging from infections to cardiopulmonary issues. It's rare that any healthy adult would die but they can happen.

Just FYI, there is a high likelihood you're having people replying to you right now who are immunocompromised. In fact, I'd say it's virtually certain. So telling people that it's not a big deal when they know their own risk...may get those people replying to you and trying to make you care about why it's a big deal.

[bmags]

I think South Korea and Hong Kong show that Lombardy should not need to happen if you get tests up and running which it is just absurd it has now made such little progress 6 weeks now into this being a distinct threat.

South Korea has now seen a 4-day drop. The test and isolate can scale quite well if you can get to it before the capacity-issues facing Lombardy. 

So, no, I don't think the US should shut itself down, but reasonable restrictions like mass rallies, schools, and sporting events when cities are in a growth phase need to happen. The gov't could counteract quite a bit of that through fiscal measures.

[Balta1701]

28 minutes ago, bmags said:

I think South Korea and Hong Kong show that Lombardy should not need to happen if you get tests up and running which it is just absurd it has now made such little progress 6 weeks now into this being a distinct threat.

South Korea has now seen a 4-day drop. The test and isolate can scale quite well if you can get to it before the capacity-issues facing Lombardy. 

So, no, I don't think the US should shut itself down, but reasonable restrictions like mass rallies, schools, and sporting events when cities are in a growth phase need to happen. The gov't could counteract quite a bit of that through fiscal measures.

Um, Lombardy?

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Um, Lombardy?

Lombardy region in Italy.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

Lombardy region in Italy.

Gotcha, TY.

Now that I understand what you meant...let's note immediately that the "Lombardy" setup in Italy wound up being such a failure that they have now been forced to expand the areal shutdown to half the country.

Edit: apparently make that literally all of Italy now as of only this hour.

[caulfield12]

Reports of Italian hospitals being overrun just like here in the first month...patients in hallways, chaos.  One can only guess how bad Iran is, we know there are stacks of corpses piling up because of the burial rites that are specific to Islam.

If you watch the reporting in Italy, most people there are still on the streets, public buses running, etc.

 

America also doesn’t have the ubiquitous mobile/e-payments apps system like S.Korea, Singapore and HK to force everyone to use QR Health Pass Codes for mass movement...so you have massive lines for manual temperature checks.

Instead, you get the honor system for now, which has already been exploited, like the Missouri case where a family member of someone who returned from Italy and tested positive, the father of patient went to Father/Daughter dance and potentially exposed the entire school.

Edited March 9, 2020 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

The entire country of Italy is now on lockdown. Just a matter of time before it's everybody. 

The only thing keeping things running right now is greed. 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

This is completely false. 7 people died.  Even if all 3700 people on board were infected, the rate would have been 0.18%, and that ship was tested heavily.

I think he means the rate was 21 out of 45, with one conclusive.

The reality is that after EVERYONE is tested....a few hundred passengers and roughly half the 1100+ crew members will have contracted it if it’s anything like what we saw in Yokohama. 

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The entire country of Italy is now on lockdown. Just a matter of time before it's everybody. 

The only thing keeping things running right now is greed. 

Now the most important calculations are simply hospital capacity and mitigating risk for critical and severe cases (+/- 20%)...and Option B/C/D plans when X percentage of doctors and health care workers inevitably get sick.

Edited March 9, 2020 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Now the most important calculations are simply hospital capacity and mitigating risk for critical and severe cases (+/- 20%)...and Option B/C/D plans when X percentage of doctors and health care workers inevitably get sick.

They really need to get ahead of this shit and shut it down now. If it reaches the Italy point of saturation, it's already too late. 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

They really need to get ahead of this shit and shut it down now. 

They can’t do that yet...simply because outside of NYC, California and Seattle...right now, there’s just no real sense due to lack of testing results where the potential second/third generation of clusters will develop.

That would induce panic that’s unnecessary.  They just to get those in the most endangered areas to start taking this more seriously...and expedite the allocation of resources there like we did here to get two emergency hospitals built in 10-14 days.  That allowed the critical cases to be sequestered from the rest of the moderately ill population.

[Jack Parkman]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

They can’t do that yet...simply because outside of NYC, California and Seattle...right now, there’s just no real sense due to lack of testing results where the potential second/third generation of clusters will develop.

That would induce panic that’s unnecessary.  They just to get those in the most endangered areas to start taking this more seriously...and expedite the allocation of resources there like we did here to get two emergency hospitals built in 10-14 days.  That allowed the critical cases to be sequestered from the rest of the moderately ill population.

It's a proactive measure to stop this in its tracks. It isn't unnecessary panic at this point. It's 100% necessary. There are cases in most major cities already. There are probably thousands of people infected in each major city that are unknown. 

This thing is going to spread like wildfire if they don't just shut it down now. 

Business as usual will just lead to a Lombardy situation in every major city in the country, and eventually the world. 

Obviously everyone can't stay home from work unless it's mandatory, but idk what the hell they're waiting for. 

If they would have done it two weeks ago, it would have been contained by now. 

The only way to stop this thing is to shut it down. 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It's a proactive measure to stop this in its tracks. It isn't unnecessary panic at this point. It's 100% necessary. There are cases in most major cities already. There are probably thousands of people infected in each major city that are unknown. 

This thing is going to spread like wildfire if they don't just shut it down now. 

Business as usual will just lead to a Lombardy situation in every major city in the country, and eventually the world. 

Which is why the assumption that shutting down travel with China was going to be sufficient...proved to be foolhardy.

That and pushing to develop their own unique test in the US instead of quickly adopting ones already in use in China/HK, Korea and Germany, then botching that rollout and setting the entire process back of getting reliable test kits out there by at least two full weeks.

Edited March 9, 2020 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Which is why the assumption that shutting down travel with China was going to be sufficient...proved to be foolhardy.

That and pushing to develop their own unique test in the US instead of quickly adopting ones already in use in China/HK, Korea and Germany, then botching that rollout and setting the entire process back of getting reliable test kits out there by at least two full weeks.

The economic hit is going to be devastating either way, might as well minimize it. This is what it is. 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[ptatc]

4 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

The thing is that there are a lot of people walking around who don't even know they have those issues. Also, especially in the US, a truly "healthy adult" is rare due to obesity and diet. 

People in their 30s are dying of heart disease. My aunt is a cardiac ICU nurse and I hear more and more stories of people in their 30s and 40s just dropping dead. 

Obesity and diet wont qualify as immunosuppressive.  Heart disease will. There will always be some but they are still rare I. the population in general.

[ptatc]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Just FYI, there is a high likelihood you're having people replying to you right now who are immunocompromised. In fact, I'd say it's virtually certain. So telling people that it's not a big deal when they know their own risk...may get those people replying to you and trying to make you care about why it's a big deal.

I never said it wasnt a big deal. It just that those are the ones that are susceptible and most know which is why 80% or so will have only mild symptoms. People should get their yearly physical and they would know.