COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Chisoxfn]

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

I really think Greg mostly enjoys playing Devil’s advocate or contrarian...to an extreme sometimes, because it’s one way to spark a discussion or be acknowledged online.

If you say perfectly sane/reasonable/logical things all the time, nobody notices, right?

Just look at the debate over Dr. Fauci, nationwide.   He or Gov. Cuomo get called out as Dr. Doom or dark clouds for attempting to prepare for the absolute worst case scenario while hoping that doesn’t actually transpire.

It’s the essence of the current national debate.  If Trump can’t even get flyover states like KS, the Dakotas, Wyoming or Montana to go back to work sooner rather than later...well, there’s going to be quite the epic confrontation in the coming weeks.  

Perhaps Texas becomes the first real test in the reopening after Easter (April 12) as one of the biggest, most important economies in the middle (and a GOP governor).  Alabama, too.  Without Congress or the Fed to intervene...we’re looking at daily falls in the stock market back down to 16-18,000 range, but hopefully I’m wrong.  That will be instantly noticed by Trump/Mnuchin, and cause desperation to ramp the economy back up before Q4/Q1 2021 to set the tone of the daily press briefing.

It’s confusing enough with Trump trying to order even more restrictive shelter in place orders in NY, NJ and CT without informing the governors beforehand.  How to enforce?  With many police officers already out sick, around 10%, and now Rhode Island and Florida trying to track every NYC resident and quarantine them by going door to door....martial law?  National Guard and US military including re-enlisted vets occupying every major city?  If we can’t open the economy, then the natural direction is to overreact by transforming into an authoritarian strongman (“only I can solve these problems”) to project an image of being in control.  
 

Scott Gottlieb, MD✔@ScottGottliebMD

I’m worried about emerging situations in New Orleans, Dallas, Atlanta, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, among others. In China no province outside Hubei ever had more than 1,500 cases. In U.S. 11 states already hit that total. Our epidemic is likely to be national in scope.

 

I will make it very clear. I don't believe any of the China numbers. None of them.  There is absolutely no way they didn't get cases all over the country given how many people left Wuhan after the spread had started.  Fundamentally impossible.  People can talk all you want about smart phones...do you know who controls the internet in China.  The GOVT.  

[Soxbadger]

33 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

 

Or we can create a Chinese system for turning on your neighbors, getting rewarded financially for turning those who are sick or not following the rules into the police.  Turn yourself in, get money.  We can round up anyone with a NY license plate and imprison them, too.  But is that really the United States anymore?

Theyll have to put me on the train to the work camp to silence me if we start to go that route.

[Chisoxfn]

8 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

It can survive on surfaces for hours in a full dose, and up to 72 hours total. Any person who touched it in the past 3 days could have transmitted it there. Or, you could pick it up from someone you talk to, then drop it on the table, and 2 days later someone else picks it up from you.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-survives-on-surfaces-how-to-protect-yourself/ 

You make it appear much easier to contract than reality. An individual touching certainly might impact it (if they haven't washed their hands and got actual fluid from their body on their hands). Hands just naturally (on an infected person) aren't just contagious.  I get it...be careful and be smart, but I'd also caveat that people can live in sterile safe rooms either (although I recognize you are higher risk and therefor have to take more extreme

 

9 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Unless you just stay in your home the next month or so, never go out, never order delivery, if you live in an apartment where you don’t have your own washer , never clean your clothes, it is virtually  Impossible not to expose yourself in some way,but it is the people who make no effort that piss me off. Sure, Greg shouldn’t be sitting in the park, at least at a bench. If you must, bring your own chair. But at least he is making an effort on the rest.

 This.  You can't live in a sterile room. Be smart, stay indoors, stay with your family, etc. At the same time, I'm not going to blame someone for sitting at a bench for a few minutes (by themselves) before moving on with their business (say they are going for a walk and need to catch a breath or just sit for a few minutes for their own mental health).  They can wash their hands and wash their clothes and keep their hands from their face. Some of the comments here are so harsh to Greg.  He's just asking some questions and has views that differ from some of you. It doesn't make him some kind of monster. 

And no, I'm not partying on the beach nor have I seen anyone other than my wife & kids plus the occasional stop by to my parents house to bring them stuff they need (and when I see my parents...I stay more than 6 feet away from them at all times...as does my wife with her parents).  We have one designated individual who does the grocery shopping (me) and I've largely minimized the number of trips I take and when I'm at the store I don't mess with anything. When I'm done I clean my credit card, wallet, and phone. The main thing I'd worry about is your phone...you are going to touch a lot worse things and then grab your phone (vs. the risk from getting it sitting on the park bench).

 

 

[Chisoxfn]

5 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Couple things:

When you refer to yourself in the 3rd person, you come off as a turd, an ass, and a POS.

In general, you'll get more empathy if you avoid turd-like language.

The other piece of this is that there are folks out there that ACTUALLY suffer from ACTUAL mental illnesses. Its incredibly tone-deaf and turd-like to complain about your "mental health," particularly in the 3rd person.

 

Lastly (and this is fucking important), you having to stay inside AINT a fucking sacrifice. It's an inconvenience. All those people working in the ER, in the ICU, the Marine out on patrol, the cop on the beat, the social worker in the shitty neighborhood, and MANY OTHERS are actually sacrificing. Not you missing out on your Panera.

 

 

Dude - Get off your schtick. Who cares what he wants to call it. If people feel better by calling what they are doing (staying away from people) a sacrifice, drives more accountability, than so be it.  Nothing wrong with it.  

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I will make it very clear. I don't believe any of the China numbers. None of them.  There is absolutely no way they didn't get cases all over the country given how many people left Wuhan after the spread had started.  Fundamentally impossible.  People can talk all you want about smart phones...do you know who controls the internet in China.  The GOVT.  

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

Best article since this whole thing started.  Worth 22 minutes of time, for sure.

 

As far as China, we can double or even triple the numbers to 10000 dead and 250,000 infected, it still doesn’t change the basic facts on the ground around the world.

Government control and quick decision making can be a huge strength, but the weaknesses in such a system are patently obvious as well now.  Even today, the government would rather go back to coal (cheapest), loosen the money spigots and spend money on dubious infrastructure projects instead of putting it back into peoples’ pockets.   In China, they have never really trusted the people to make their own decisions, and now there’s a painful contradiction when the inefficient state operated industries receive loan supports/guarantees to keep more workers employed and the real drivers of the economy, small and medium sized enterprises, are left dangling in the wind. 

 

[Chisoxfn]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

A few doors down from me a family was outdoors having beer on their front porch, with their kids playing together.

Based on their car, one of them works in a hospice facility. Our county’s first death today was someone who was in a hospice facility. 

Maybe they will be fine today, but do that a few more times and someone will die for that play date.

Are you saying a family (like 1 family) and there kids were on their front porch and the kids were playing together? Are you implying I should have each of my kids locked up in their own rooms, completely isolated from each other?  

[YoYoIsMyHero]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/testing-coronavirus-pandemic.html

A good overview of how we got to where we are now due failures at the top of HHS, CDC, FDA, etc.

But as the deadly virus from China spread with ferocity across the United States between late January and early March, large-scale testing of people who might have been infected did not happen — because of technical flaws, regulatory hurdles, business-as-usual bureaucracies and lack of leadership at multiple levels...

The result was a lost month, when the world’s richest country — armed with some of the most highly trained scientists and infectious disease specialists — squandered its best chance of containing the virus’s spread. Instead, Americans were left largely blind to the scale of a looming public health catastrophe.

The absence of robust screening until it was “far too late” revealed failures across the government, said Dr. Thomas Frieden, the former C.D.C. director. Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins, said the Trump administration had “incredibly limited” views of the pathogen’s potential impact. Dr. Margaret Hamburg, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, said the lapse enabled “exponential growth of cases.”

And Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, a top government scientist involved in the fight against the virus, told members of Congress that the early inability to test was “a failing” of the administration’s response to a deadly, global pandemic. “Why,” he asked later in a magazine interview, “were we not able to mobilize on a broader scale?”

[Chisoxfn]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

A thousand people died in the last 2 days.

For perspective, 1700 people die a day of heart disease and 1670 people die from cancer per day in the US.  And those numbers will be there in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, etc.  I'm not trying to make light of everything, but I truly wonder, what would a $2 trillion stimulus targeted at cancer or heart disease eradication do?  And I recognize billions are spent on those items each year by doctors, medical researches, pharmaceutical companies, etc.    

We are going to beat this, but you are also right, numbers are going to get a bit ugly and it would be nice if we got our schtick together as a country and truly implemented a real lockdown. Annoys the piss out of me that my state can be doing a ton right, yet all that right could be countered by other knucklehead states (same can be said for different people).  But I'm also a big believer in perspective.

You also will not ever see me throw out a stat comparing this to the flu....this is clearly worse than the flu. There isn't a statistic that says otherwise and the flu infects somewhere around 10-40M people each year, despite the fact that we have a vaccine for it (i.e., flu shot).  CoronaVirus is something we have no vaccine for and our bodies thus have minimal built up resistance to it and thus one would suspect the number infected (if you did nothing) would be worse than the CoronaVirus.  

One other data point people might find interesting is that 90%+ of the deaths in Italy were from individuals with comorbidities (meaning had high risk), however, of that population, a high percentage only had one Comoborbidity (hypertension).  Think about that for a second...cause I have to imagine the US has a higher % of hypertension vs. Italy.  

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, Soxbadger said:

Do your best man, thats all anyone can ask. Dark times bring out the darkness in even the best people.

But no matter how bleak it may get, we each need to try and shine as bright as we can. Now more than ever, because darkness is easy.

Well said Badger

[Chisoxfn]

 

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

This is where the “what about” automobile deaths argument comes in, what about the common flu, deaths due to assault guns or pesticides or eating too much junk food/obesity or climate change...why is this life and death when those other issues are never addressed by Congress like they are also clear and present dangers?  

We can’t agree that it is a problem when 25-30% of Americans don’t have health insurance or are underinsured?  After that, well, another large percentage believes illegal immigrants paying taxes should get no assistance, no govnt checks and no COVID tests even if they might be endangering the rest of the country.  What about homeless people?  People in prisons?  The virus is tearing right through these two groups right now with no end in sight. 

What extremes are we willing to go to when there’s no public consensus on anything?  Even when there is, let’s say on limits to assault weapons, we still have no choice but the status quo or what, violent revolution against the govnt?

In the end, we have to deal with the macro picture here at this stage...testing testing testing....innovating to develop creative solutions on the beds and respirator/ventilators, such as splitting to double existing capacity, innovating innovating innovating to find a vaccine ASAP.  The rest is just noise, politicians, statistics. 
 

Or we can create a Chinese system for turning on your neighbors, getting rewarded financially for turning those who are sick or not following the rules into the police.  Turn yourself in, get money.  We can round up anyone with a NY license plate and imprison them, too.  But is that really the United States anymore?

That is the bigger issue. Spend the $1B to get enough respirators and figure out ways to be ready with makeshift hospitals so we can do the best to tackle this while also being focused on curbing the spread.  

[YoYoIsMyHero]

6 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

For perspective, 1700 people die a day of heart disease and 1670 people die from cancer per day in the US.  And those numbers will be there in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, etc.  I'm not trying to make light of everything, but I truly wonder, what would a $2 trillion stimulus targeted at cancer or heart disease eradication do?  And I recognize billions are spent on those items each year by doctors, medical researches, pharmaceutical companies, etc.    

We are going to beat this, but you are also right, numbers are going to get a bit ugly and it would be nice if we got our schtick together as a country and truly implemented a real lockdown. Annoys the piss out of me that my state can be doing a ton right, yet all that right could be countered by other knucklehead states (same can be said for different people).  But I'm also a big believer in perspective.

You also will not ever see me throw out a stat comparing this to the flu....this is clearly worse than the flu. There isn't a statistic that says otherwise and the flu infects somewhere around 10-40M people each year, despite the fact that we have a vaccine for it (i.e., flu shot).  CoronaVirus is something we have no vaccine for and our bodies thus have minimal built up resistance to it and thus one would suspect the number infected (if you did nothing) would be worse than the CoronaVirus.  

One other data point people might find interesting is that 90%+ of the deaths in Italy were from individuals with comorbidities (meaning had high risk), however, of that population, a high percentage only had one Comoborbidity (hypertension).  Think about that for a second...cause I have to imagine the US has a higher % of hypertension vs. Italy.  

I'm sorry, but this whataboutism needs to stop. This is a novel virus. We barely know anything about it. This can come back and absolutely wreck us in the fall/winter a la the 1918 flu. This is the reason we are/should be throwing everything we can to stop it. We literally haven't seen anything like this in a 100 years.

I agree with everything else you said. I'm just tired of people comparing this to other causes of death that we have a much better understanding of because it leads to misinformation. 

[Chisoxfn]

10 minutes ago, YoYoIsMyHero said:

I'm sorry, but this whataboutism needs to stop. This is a novel virus. We barely know anything about it. This can come back and absolutely wreck us in the fall/winter a la the 1918 flu. This is the reason we are/should be throwing everything we can to stop it. We literally haven't seen anything like this in a 100 years.

I agree with everything else you said. I'm just tired of people comparing this to other causes of death that we have a much better understanding of because it leads to misinformation. 

I am not stating anything around not tackling it and taking it seriously, but I also think everyone needs perspective. Nowhere am I stating that we should not be acting and being aggressive on it. I won't compare to certain things but we can't pretend that leaders and people in charge of the world, can't put a price on a life, cause you know what, they do. If they didn't, they wouldn't ever go to war or let us ever eat sugar or drink a beer, etc.  We wouldn't allow people to die of starvation or anything else.  We'd all be forced to eat vegetables and chicken/fish for all our meals.  

We need to take this serious and should, but I also think we need to manage overall panic in the equation. I'm not a believer that mass panic is a good thing. We push this too far in the scale and have everyone terrified for their lives and we will make how we respond to COVID worse than the actual virus. We'll have riots on the street, people robbing each other for things, and far worse I'm sure (especially as people respond to some form of Martial Law.

We should invest in the respirators and have the best, most efficient testing system on the planet.  And we are going to need to aggressively test until this thing has been beat to a bulp (and live with more regional shelter in place scenarios that pop up while they work on getting a treatment). And if we are going to get a treatment, it won't be from that Malaria drug. Everything I've seen indicates that drug is absolute vapor ware. 

[The Beast]

9 hours ago, greg775 said:

 

Basically we are all doomed then until we order people to stay in 100 percent of the time and have people in protective suits drop off food supplies in front of our houses. Until we have forced isolation we have no chance as a society. I wouldn't discount forced quarantine 24 hours a day before this is over. That seems to be what people want. This thread is a good example. Greg is obeying the rules and thus is probably 85 to 95 percent a non risk at this time. But people are appalled at my behavior. So yes we're going to lock us all in before too much more time I predict. Food drops at our doors hopefully.

Why do you speak in third person?

[YoYoIsMyHero]

11 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I am not stating anything around not tackling it and taking it seriously, but I also think everyone needs perspective. Nowhere am I stating that we should not be acting and being aggressive on it. I won't compare to certain things but we can't pretend that leaders and people in charge of the world, can't put a price on a life, cause you know what, they do. If they didn't, they wouldn't ever go to war or let us ever eat sugar or drink a beer, etc.  We wouldn't allow people to die of starvation or anything else.  We'd all be forced to eat vegetables and chicken/fish for all our meals.  

We need to take this serious and should, but I also think we need to manage overall panic in the equation. I'm not a believer that mass panic is a good thing. We push this too far in the scale and have everyone terrified for their lives and we will make how we respond to COVID worse than the actual virus. We'll have riots on the street, people robbing each other for things, and far worse I'm sure (especially as people respond to some form of Martial Law.

We should invest in the respirators and have the best, most efficient testing system on the planet.  And we are going to need to aggressively test until this thing has been beat to a bulp (and live with more regional shelter in place scenarios that pop up while they work on getting a treatment). And if we are going to get a treatment, it won't be from that Malaria drug. Everything I've seen indicates that drug is absolute vapor ware. 

I pretty much agree with you here. Like I said the whataboutism is getting to me. I am upset at how the feds have handled this (not just POTUS, but department heads that failed to act as reported in the NYT article I linked). If we were talking in person, I feel like we would understand each other 100%. 

[caulfield12]

A Singaporean had his passport canceled for breaking quarantine.  And speaking of things we’ll never see in the US:

 

Draconian measures: Singapore has introduced new laws governing social distancing during the coronavirus outbreak that could see offenders serve six months in jail.

Those who do not keep at least 1 meter (3.2 feet) apart, or who meet in groups of more than 10 people outside of work or school, could face a fine of up to 10,000 Singapore dollars ($7,000) and/or up to six months' imprisonment.

source: cnn.com

Edited March 29, 2020 by caulfield12

[bmags]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

A Singaporean had his passport canceled for breaking quarantine.  And speaking of things we’ll never see in the US:

 

Draconian measures: Singapore has introduced new lawsgoverning social distancing during the coronavirus outbreak that could see offenders serve six months in jail.

Those who do not keep at least 1 meter (3.2 feet) apart, or who meet in groups of more than 10 people outside of work or school, could face a fine of up to 10,000 Singapore dollars ($7,000) and/or up to six months' imprisonment.

source: cnn.com

I should hope so.

[pcq]

I am actually more concerned about the second wave when people and business are anxious to return to normalcy. However right now is bad enough and care is required. I should be more thankful that I can dive into my cyber Network and shake a few shekels out to get by.

[bmags]

Chicago May have had a decent test bump but shocked how far behind we are on daily pace. Hoping Abbott comes into play here.

[bmags]

40 minutes ago, pcq said:

I am actually more concerned about the second wave when people and business are anxious to return to normalcy. However right now is bad enough and care is required. I should be more thankful that I can dive into my cyber Network and shake a few shekels out to get by.

Just keep in mind it got so bad due to months of unknown community transmission. In several months we’ll have much more testing capabilities built out as well as infrastructure to handle. Doesn’t mean it won’t be bad but there will be greater opportunity to handle even if behavior is more lax.

This Abbott labs test if it can scale up production quickly is a game changer.

[Big Hurtin]

9 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

I will make it very clear. I don't believe any of the China numbers. None of them.  There is absolutely no way they didn't get cases all over the country given how many people left Wuhan after the spread had started.  Fundamentally impossible.  People can talk all you want about smart phones...do you know who controls the internet in China.  The GOVT.  

Estimates Show Wuhan Death Toll Far Higher Than Official Figure

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

[Quin]

9 hours ago, YoYoIsMyHero said:

I'm sorry, but this whataboutism needs to stop. This is a novel virus. We barely know anything about it. This can come back and absolutely wreck us in the fall/winter a la the 1918 flu. This is the reason we are/should be throwing everything we can to stop it. We literally haven't seen anything like this in a 100 years.

I agree with everything else you said. I'm just tired of people comparing this to other causes of death that we have a much better understanding of because it leads to misinformation. 

+1

Deaths doubled in two days yesterday.

As of this morning, it's well on its way to do that again. That's with massive societal preventative measures.

If it keeps doing that, we're in a bad, bad places.

[Dick Allen]

Fauci has said if you had it, he's absolutely sure you will have immunity from getting it at least for a while  Does that also stop you from spreading it? If you had it on your hands, does it die instantly, or if you touch something, as nice as it is you won't get sick, it might be a huge problem for others.

[bmags]

22 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Fauci has said if you had it, he's absolutely sure you will have immunity from getting it at least for a while  Does that also stop you from spreading it? If you had it on your hands, does it die instantly, or if you touch something, as nice as it is you won't get sick, it might be a huge problem for others.

I would assume the body would be able to prevent it from storing in the throat as it kills it, avoiding the main spread.

even acting as a vessel, no where near as bad since upon hand washing it is then removed.

[Soxbadger]

Good news guys, Trump's press conferences are getting great ratings.

Anyone who voted for him owns this disaster. Ironic that the electoral college was created to prevent someone like him being elected.

[Jerksticks]

32 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

Good news guys, Trump's press conferences are getting great ratings.

Anyone who voted for him owns this disaster. Ironic that the electoral college was created to prevent someone like him being elected.

I disagree.  The electoral college is fine.  I think the whole problem is how we get candidates, Congress all the way to Presidential.  The fact that Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump is going to be America’s competition for leader is ridiculous.  

Really?  These are our two best leaders to pick from? GTFOH.  I work with guys who would run circles around their management styles, especially Trump’s.  Not sure Biden has ever led people in his life so who knows there- but it probably sucks since he has no experience.  I’m sure we all know people who make great presidents, especially over the last 5-10 dolts we’ve had in office.