mqr Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Something I’m struggling with is why the US is lagging so far behind Italy. Yes I know we aren’t adequately testing, but as far as I know there still aren’t jammed up hospitals. I find it hard to believe this would spread to Italy significantly faster than the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, mqr said: Something I’m struggling with is why the US is lagging so far behind Italy. Yes I know we aren’t adequately testing, but as far as I know there still aren’t jammed up hospitals. I find it hard to believe this would spread to Italy significantly faster than the US That's why. Italy had 20 cases 18 days ago. The fact that they aren't adequately testing is a public health risk. Honestly I think the situation here is much, much worse than people are letting on, and the inadequate testing is a political choice to try to stave off the inevitable for as long as possible. BTW Pritzker just declared a State of Emergency in IL, sooo.......... Edited March 9, 2020 by Jack Parkman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 9, 2020 Author Share Posted March 9, 2020 "We have a very strong economy but this came — but this blindsided the world, and I think we've handled it very, very well. I think they've done a great job," he said. Minus the six or seven weeks of advance warning...okay. In fact, you can argue earlier than that, but I guess we can give the government that China was deliberately hiding the truth from Trump for at least one full month. This was on February 6th. President Trump on Thursday spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinpingabout the coronavirus after officials said more than 600 people had died from the disease in China. "President Trump expressed confidence in China’s strength and resilience in confronting the challenge of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak," a White House spokesman said in a statement. "The two leaders agreed to continue extensive communication and cooperation between both sides." The correspondence marked the first publicized call between the two leaders since the outbreak began in the Wuhan province (actually Hubei Province, Wuhan is the city.) https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/481970-trump-discusses-coronavirus-with-chinas-xi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 9, 2020 Author Share Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, mqr said: Something I’m struggling with is why the US is lagging so far behind Italy. Yes I know we aren’t adequately testing, but as far as I know there still aren’t jammed up hospitals. I find it hard to believe this would spread to Italy significantly faster than the US I think it has more to do with extensive travel among Chinese tourists in Europe in late December and the first 2-3 weeks of January before countries started shutting down travel with China. When you see you videos of Rome, Milan...around the touristic areas, even today, the majority of tourists in the background shots are Asian/Chinese. Basically, countries like Italy, Thailand, South Korea and Japan, more dependent on Chinese tourism...waited longer or refused to pull the plug on flights in and out of China. As China’s case load ran from a couple thousand to tens of thousands in a matter of weeks, countries like Italy and South Korea were still zipping flights in and out of China. And now both countries have more cases outside of China than any other country. Italy has become the virus’ hub in Europe, with France and Germany surpassing 1,000 cases this weekend. Two weeks ago, they had maybe 22 cases. source: forbes.com Edited March 9, 2020 by caulfield12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 I’m starting to think that the US will be okay and that the prognostications of overflowing hospitals with no beds and no doctors left by May is bananas-level crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsideirish71 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: It's a proactive measure to stop this in its tracks. It isn't unnecessary panic at this point. It's 100% necessary. There are cases in most major cities already. There are probably thousands of people infected in each major city that are unknown. This thing is going to spread like wildfire if they don't just shut it down now. Business as usual will just lead to a Lombardy situation in every major city in the country, and eventually the world. Obviously everyone can't stay home from work unless it's mandatory, but idk what the hell they're waiting for. If they would have done it two weeks ago, it would have been contained by now. The only way to stop this thing is to shut it down. Shut what down? The United States? For how long? You realize that its months before we get a vaccine that can be produced in the quantities needed to create herd immunity. We have a very infectious disease that will pop up the minute you allow humans to interact with each other. The minute another visitor from another country, cruise ship, or community infected person shows up and interacts with the general public its back in the wild. Unless you are a doomsday prepper you are not ready to go offline from humanity for a few weeks. Toliet paper will be the least of your worries if you think you are going to crawl into a hole in the ground and just wait this out. So do you have enough food to survive for 21 days in your house today? I mean if you get to quarantine and hide, why not the food delivery guy, what about the plant worker, the garbage man, what about the health care professional. I mean they all have family and people they love. The problem with shutting it all down is that no one is there to keep the lights on. Remote access and working from home is cute as a white color worker. I can do my job from my house everyday. I never have to go in. But the rest of humanity cant do that. And some workers need to be out and not at home. Until there is a vaccine that everyone can readily get this is a fools errand to think we can stave off with quarantines here and there. The concept of this just being about greed doesnt take into place how connected our economy is. So unless you are a doomsday prepper you are not ready to sit in at home and wait this out for a month or so. I cant wait for the anti-vaxxers to come out of the woodwork to protest the eventual shot. Edited March 10, 2020 by southsideirish71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said: Shut what down? The United States? For how long? You realize that its months before we get a vaccine that can be produced in the quantities needed to create herd immunity. We have a very infectious disease that will pop up the minute you allow humans to interact with each other. The minute another visitor from another country, cruise ship, or community infected person shows up and interacts with the general public its back in the wild. Unless you are a doomsday prepper you are not ready to go offline from humanity for a few weeks. Toliet paper will be the least of your worries if you think you are going to crawl into a hole in the ground and just wait this out. So do you have enough food to survive for 21 days in your house today? I mean if you get to quarantine and hide, why not the food delivery guy, what about the plant worker, the garbage man, what about the health care professional. I mean they all have family and people they love. The problem with shutting it all down is that no one is there to keep the lights on. Remote access and working from home is cute as a white color worker. I can do my job from my house everyday. I never have to go in. But the rest of humanity cant do that. And some workers need to be out and not at home. Until there is a vaccine that everyone can readily get this is a fools errand to think we can stave off with quarantines here and there. The concept of this just being about greed doesnt take into place how connected our economy is. So unless you are a doomsday prepper you are not ready to sit in at home and wait this out for a month or so. Yes. I know that we're not prepared....but this is the right course of action. I understand the ramifications. It's the right move though, because of exactly what you said. And BTW, I am the food delivery guy so you don't have to lecture me about that. Everyone should stay home and we shouldn't gaf about where(as in what company) the food comes from, how much it costs etc. Send in the national guard /army or something to make food deliveries to people. That's what they're there for. Edited March 10, 2020 by Jack Parkman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said: Shut what down? The United States? For how long? You realize that its months before we get a vaccine that can be produced in the quantities needed to create herd immunity. We have a very infectious disease that will pop up the minute you allow humans to interact with each other. The minute another visitor from another country, cruise ship, or community infected person shows up and interacts with the general public its back in the wild. Unless you are a doomsday prepper you are not ready to go offline from humanity for a few weeks. Toliet paper will be the least of your worries if you think you are going to crawl into a hole in the ground and just wait this out. So do you have enough food to survive for 21 days in your house today? I mean if you get to quarantine and hide, why not the food delivery guy, what about the plant worker, the garbage man, what about the health care professional. I mean they all have family and people they love. The problem with shutting it all down is that no one is there to keep the lights on. Remote access and working from home is cute as a white color worker. I can do my job from my house everyday. I never have to go in. But the rest of humanity cant do that. And some workers need to be out and not at home. Until there is a vaccine that everyone can readily get this is a fools errand to think we can stave off with quarantines here and there. The concept of this just being about greed doesnt take into place how connected our economy is. So unless you are a doomsday prepper you are not ready to sit in at home and wait this out for a month or so. Well said. I was just thinking about something. It seems backwards, but maybe our for-profit health system is our best defense as a herd. If it was the other way you’d have every sniffle at the hospital mixing with the actual virus carriers. When this is over, maybe it’s time we all write a letter to corporate America thanking them for medical and pharmaceutical greed. ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soxfan49 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 https://www.indiatoday.in/trending-news/story/this-book-predicted-2020-coronavirus-outbreak-12-years-ago-trending-now-1652433-2020-03-04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsideirish71 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Just now, Jack Parkman said: Yes. I know that we're not prepared....but this is the right course of action. I understand the ramifications. It's the right move though. No you don't understand the ramifications. Do you think that people have enough food and resources to stay put for a month or so? I mean eventually you will run out of resources. People dont plan that well. I have a stocked freezer and I could probably get away with staying home for a month. As long as my heat stays on, my electricity works and my water runs. What happens if your electricity has a problem, or your gas. No one to come out and fix it. They are at home like you. Maybe you can use your home depot dust mask and go into the back yard and hunt rabbits. Cook them over a fire you cant make on your own. This isntthe hunger games. Most people do not live with infinite resources or plan for long term survival at home. Most of the food in your fridge has an expiration date that probably is before the date you would need to stay in by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 11 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said: No you don't understand the ramifications. Do you think that people have enough food and resources to stay put for a month or so? I mean eventually you will run out of resources. People dont plan that well. I have a stocked freezer and I could probably get away with staying home for a month. As long as my heat stays on, my electricity works and my water runs. What happens if your electricity has a problem, or your gas. No one to come out and fix it. They are at home like you. Maybe you can use your home depot dust mask and go into the back yard and hunt rabbits. Cook them over a fire you cant make on your own. This isntthe hunger games. Most people do not live with infinite resources or plan for long term survival at home. Most of the food in your fridge has an expiration date that probably is before the date you would need to stay in by. The alternatives are worse, so what the hell are we supposed to do? Just let this thing take its course and let people die? I've yet to hear a viable alternative. We can either shut it down now or later but it's going to get shut down eventually. We've had 2 countries already declare at the very least a regional quarantine, with a national one in Italy. It's just a matter of time before it happens everywhere else, so why endanger more people than you have to? So I ask you, what's the alternative? Edited March 10, 2020 by Jack Parkman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsideirish71 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: The alternatives are worse, so what the hell are we supposed to do? Just let this thing take its course and let people die? Its in the wild. To be safe you will have to stay in your house until you can get immunized for it. You okay staying at home and surviving until October? Got enough canned goods? Now remember when your gas gets cut due to lack of workers or the fact you cant pay your bill anymore you better have plan B ready. DId you start choping down your trees and getting the firewood ready. I mean will need to prepare for when the gas gets shut off and you need to cook the 7 cans of chef-boy-r-dee you have in your cupboard. Remember to check the expiration dates on your mac and cheese, your tuna, and the whole cream corn. If the water gets shut off remember hopefully you live in an area that has a high water table so when you dig your well that it wont waste a lot of your energy. Spring is coming so insects can provide protein. I hope you are good with cleaning the animals you hunt and kill in the safety of your backyard. With the disease there is a 3% chance of death. My guess is if we tell people to stay in their homes until October, probably a few more are going to die. I feel like I am reading the Stand or something. Christ get a grip. This is a serious pandemic. But in the end we are not ready to bunker in our homes for months. I know how to hunt, fish and survive. I dont think I could do that here regularly with the game we have in the area and not without travelling a bit to get something that would be sustainable. I could probably eat a bunch of canadian geese, ducks, rabbits and might be able to fish. But then again I would need to leave my home. So if I am going to do that, can I just go to the grocery store and get dinner. Edited March 10, 2020 by southsideirish71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said: Its in the wild. To be safe you will have to stay in your house until you can get immunized for it. You okay staying at home and surviving until October? Got enough canned goods? Now remember when your gas gets cut due to lack of workers or the fact you cant pay your bill anymore you better have plan B ready. DId you start choping down your trees and getting the firewood ready. I mean will need to prepare for when the gas gets shut off and you need to cook the 7 cans of chef-boy-r-dee you have in your cupboard. Remember to check the expiration dates on your mac and cheese, your tuna, and the whole cream corn. If the water gets shut off remember hopefully you live in an area that has a high water table so when you dig your well that it wont waste a lot of your energy. Spring is coming so insects can provide protein. I hope you are good with cleaning the animals you hunt and kill in the safety of your backyard. With the disease there is a 3% chance of death. My guess is if we tell people to stay in their homes until October, probably a few more are going to die. I feel like I am reading the Stand or something. Christ get a grip. You don't seem to understand what's going on. If we allow business as usual, then it's going to overwhelm the healthcare system. There's really no good option here. If they can shut it down for 6 weeks, they can contain this. If they allow business as usual, there is no telling how bad it gets. It's really a lose-lose situation, and shutting down is the lesser of the bad options. Edited March 10, 2020 by Jack Parkman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsideirish71 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Just now, Jack Parkman said: You don't seem to understand what's going on. If we allow business as usual, then it's going to overwhelm the healthcare system. There's really no good option here. Actually I do. The problem that is going to happen is that there will people like you flooding the emergency rooms if you get a sniffle. It must be the coronavirus and its obviously fatal for everyone. So lets crash the ER. Meanwhile in the ER you are going to pick up Flu A, Flu B, or a whole laundry list of things that can fuck up your life for good. Like my anti-vaxer neighbors who go to the emergency room everytime their kids get a cold. BTW did you get your flu vaccine last fall? You know flu also kills, not at the same rate as Coronavirus. But the flu is a well known killer and has been linked to many pandemics. Now the flu vaccine is a best guess. But you got it right. Go hide in your cave. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 10, 2020 Author Share Posted March 10, 2020 This is one of the biggest factors for the spread in China. Everyone goes to the doctor for common ailments, especially if its their kids. All of the sick and non-sick and health care workers crowded together without full knowledge of the disease the first 4-6 weeks turned every hospital into the Diamond Princess. That said, can you use build hospitals to sequester those critical/severe patients from the general population within 10-14 days? Probably not. On the plus side, the weather in the US is far better than China was, and you don’t have lots of people wandering around in the cold and rain from hospital to hospital, since most Americans have their own cars. That works the other way too, shut down all the subways, buses and taxis (Uber/Didi and public) and it’s far easier to keep everyone quarantined inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said: Actually I do. The problem that is going to happen is that there will people like you flooding the emergency rooms if you get a sniffle. It must be the coronavirus and its obviously fatal for everyone. So lets crash the ER. Meanwhile in the ER you are going to pick up Flu A, Flu B, or a whole laundry list of things that can fuck up your life for good. Like my anti-vaxer neighbors who go to the emergency room everytime their kids get a cold. BTW did you get your flu vaccine last fall? You know flu also kills, not at the same rate as Coronavirus. But the flu is a well known killer and has been linked to many pandemics. Now the flu vaccine is a best guess. But you got it right. Go hide in your cave. Good luck. It's not fatal for everyone, and I wouldn't go unless I got sick and things got really bad. You don't seem to realize how easily this thing is transmitted, how it starts out with similar symptoms to a common cold, and that it's related to it. This thing is super infectious and the only way to prevent spread is to not go in the public. I think the truth is somewhere in between business as usual and shutting everything down, but I do believe that business as usual will result in a shutdown anyway. Please, tell me how business as usual doesn't end like Italy. Edited March 10, 2020 by Jack Parkman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsideirish71 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: It's not fatal for everyone, and I wouldn't go unless I got sick and things got really bad. You don't seem to realize how easily this thing is transmitted, how it starts out with similar symptoms to a common cold, and that it's related to it. This thing is super infectious and the only way to prevent spread is to not go in the public. I think the truth is somewhere in between business as usual and shutting everything down, but I do believe that business as usual will result in a shutdown anyway. You are already in a panic. My guess if you had a fever and a cough you would be lined up at the emergency room letting your next of kin know that you had a grand life. Actually I know how easy it is transmitted. That's why I don't believe a shutdown will work. Because the minute you start letting things go back to normal all it takes is a few people to reignite this again. Quarantines are great. I wonder how many Italians scattered out of Italy before this got locked down. "We are issuing a quaratine at 9pm" .... Until there is a vaccine that everyone can take, with how infectious this is. This is just playing wack-a-mole. Edited March 10, 2020 by southsideirish71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said: You are already in a panic. My guess if you had a fever and a cough you would be lined up at the emergency room letting your next of kin know that you had a grand life. Actually I know how easy it is transmitted. That's why I don't believe a shutdown will work. Because the minute you start letting things go back to normal all it takes is a few people to reignite this again. Until there is a vaccine that everyone can take, with how infectious this is. This is just playing wack-a-mole. I'm actually not panicked at all, outside of washing hands and other hygiene stuff I haven't changed anything about what I'm doing. I'm just looking at what's going on elsewhere in the world and extrapolating that to here. I'm sounding the alarm because the logical conclusion is what happened in Italy happening everywhere. Edited March 10, 2020 by Jack Parkman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsideirish71 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: I'm actually not panicked at all, outside of washing hands and other hygiene stuff I haven't changed anything about what I'm doing. I'm just looking at what's going on elsewhere in the world and extrapolating that to here. Dude you are ready to lock up the entire country into their homes for the foreseeable future. This is a bit beyond, I am washing hands and taking this calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 I think the elderly are going to be smart and hunker down for a while. In the US it’s not as customary for generations to live under the same house, so generally the elderly are isolated pretty well to their communities. I think with how spread out our country is, if the elderly wait it out pretty smartly for a few months or whatever, you’ll probably see the lowest death rates in the US. With all the food and resource delivery we have, I think we’ll be all right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said: Dude you are ready to lock up the entire country into their homes for the foreseeable future. This is a bit beyond, I am washing hands and taking this calm. Mostly because I see what is happening and am reaching a logical conclusion. I'm saying that you can be proactive or reactive. Being reactive is always the worse decision. I think that a nationwide quarantine is an inevitability and probably unavoidable. It's just a matter of how bad this gets before they decide to do it, which is why I'm saying to do it now. Edited March 10, 2020 by Jack Parkman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsideirish71 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Just now, Jerksticks said: I think the elderly are going to be smart and hunker down for a while. In the US it’s not as customary for generations to live under the same house, so generally the elderly are isolated pretty well to their communities. I think with how spread out our country is, if the elderly wait it out pretty smartly for a few months or whatever, you’ll probably see the lowest death rates in the US. With all the food and resource delivery we have, I think we’ll be all right. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/us/coronavirus-new-hampshire-dartmouth.html And here is the problem with the quarantine idea here. Humans doing human things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 18 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said: You are already in a panic. Par for the course for Parkman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) Nobody's ever been alive for anything like this, so we have no idea what a "rational" response is. There's not a person on the planet that knows what the correct course of action is, and when that it the case, overreacting is probably a better choice than under reacting. Have you ever heard the term "better safe than sorry?" Idk what you want me to say, I'm just giving my opinion that I'd be surprised if this doesn't get really, really bad by April. I get why you're minimizing it. I tried to do that for as long as I could. At some point, you have to come to grips with reality. Edited March 10, 2020 by Jack Parkman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsideirish71 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Y 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: Nobody's ever been alive for anything like this, so we have no idea what a "rational" response is. There's not a person on the planet that knows what the correct course of action is, and when that it the case, overreacting is probably a better choice than under reacting. Have you ever heard the term "better safe than sorry?" Good luck with your self quarantine. Remember to seal up the home with saran wrap and aluminum foil. The first creates a virus barrier and the other keeps the government from reading your mind. I hope it works out for you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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