COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[StrangeSox]

The two antimalarial drugs have shown promise in some very very early trials in other countries, one of which is deeply questionable in methodology and reliability given the researcher's history. The FDA has approved trials in this country to evaluate them at this point. We do not know if they will actually help or not. At best, it's inconclusive, and we're a long way from knowing if he got this one "right." Regardless, his promotion of this early on was based not on medical science but on media and memes.

 

 

For people who are paywalled, here's the entirety of this WSJ Editorial Board letter. There is no new information, just praise for Trump for the FDA allowing wider usage of unproven treatments.

The Food and Drug Administration on Sunday green-lighted two malaria medicines that have shown some promise treating the novel coronavirus, and the emergency approvals couldn’t come soon enough. Expanding their use could bring quicker relief to patients and hospitals while allowing scientists to better assess their efficacy.

The malaria drugs hydroxychloroquine (HC) and chloroquine have been around for more than five decades, so their safety is well documented. New evidence suggests that they could also help fight the novel coronavirus, as op-eds by Dr. Jeff Colyer on these pages have reported. Both chloroquine and HC in vitro block the replication of RNA viruses like the novel coronavirus.

Hydroxychloroquine nowadays is often prescribed for the autoimmune conditions lupus and rheumatoid arthritis that result from the body’s immune system attacking its own cells. Scientists have also documented an overreactive immune response in severely ill coronavirus patients.

Notably, a study in France of 80 coronavirus patients given HC and azithromycin, an antibiotic for upper respiratory infections, documented “a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74 year-old patient still in intensive care unit.” Doctors have also reported anecdotal evidence of the malaria drugs’ efficacy.

More study is needed, and a clinical trial of the two drugs involving 1,100 patients started last week in New York. But the FDA’s emergency authorization will let more doctors prescribe the drug outside of clinical trials, and hospitals will be required to maintain data on drug dispensation and patient outcomes. This will allow a larger review than possible in a controlled clinical trial.

Production of the drugs will need to increase so patients with autoimmune conditions can maintain their treatments, and the emergency approval covers only drugs supplied by the National Strategic Stockpile. The Department of Health and Human Services reported Sunday that Novartis has donated 30 million doses of HC, and Bayer has contributed one million doses of chloroquine to the federal government, which can distribute the drugs to areas with the highest need.

Some are attacking President Trump for giving patients “false hope” by encouraging the emergency drug approvals. They quibble that the French study lacked a control group, but are flogging a smaller Chinese study that found no statistical benefit from HC. That study’s control group received other antiviral drugs.

Effective drug treatments would reduce the strain on hospitals and in the long term will be more important and less costly than government quarantines in defeating the pandemic.

Edited April 1, 2020 by StrangeSox

[StrangeSox]

More very bad news:

 

 

[Kyyle23]

13 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

All I'm saying is Dr. Trump got this one right, while the media grilled him because some moron drank fish tank cleaner. Credit is given where credit is due

He is far from being proven right.   Nothing has been tested and proven, it is in testing phase with various results, some deaths in those results 

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

All I'm saying is Dr. Trump got this one right, while the media grilled him because some moron drank fish tank cleaner. Credit is given where credit is due

Would you give this drug/these drugs to ill family members based on a single French study of under 100 patients with no proper control group?

 

And we’re missing a very important aggregate number indeed: a control group. How would a comparable group of patients have performed in these RNA tests for contagiousness under another standard of care? Even with or without azithromycin, if you can’t stand the thought of not giving them hydroxychloroquine? We don’t know. Without matched controls, and without being able to look at individual patient data, we just don’t know how good this treatment was or frankly if it was any good at all. We may be seeing a notable effect size in what is still a small trial, or we may be seeing something that’s not that remarkable or the result of a poorly controlled protocol. We don’t know. I understand the need for speed, and I’m glad that the Marseilles group is conducting studies and releasing them as preprints. But this work does not help us anywhere as much as it should.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/29/more-on-cloroquine-azithromycin-and-on-dr-raoult

 

[turnin' two]

1 hour ago, pcq said:

Your naivete is exactly how we got here. Please volunteer for the testing program.

No it isn't.  We got here because there was a new virus that emerged in China, likely spread from wet markets.  Infected people traveled all over the world before it was known, and it was likely covered up for a while, increasing the spread.  Then no one knew the severity of the issue. 

Now it has spread across the globe.

I know it is the trendy thing to jump on Trump and blame him because of his bluster and his general dis-likability, But, in case you haven't noticed, basically the same situation is playing out everywhere.  South Korea is the only country that seems to have handled this well.  Even Germany, who is also getting praised for their response, is at 10 deaths per million in population.  Right now the US is at 12.  Now, that number is sure to rise, on both counts, and has risen in the last few days.  South Korea is at 3 for reference.  Italy and Spain are about 200.  France is over 50.  The UK at 35.  Trump downplaying the disease had nothing to do with the response in those countries.  No one knew.  Really until Italy crashed, no one knew how bad this was going to be. 

Comments like the above don't help anything and are overly simple and just finger pointing.  It doesn't acknowledge the truth of how we got here.  There were plenty of people from all parts of the political spectrum that dismissed this.  And plenty of people from all over the political spectrum that have disregarded the suggested measures to stop the spread. 

 

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, turnin' two said:

No it isn't.  We got here because there was a new virus that emerged in China, likely spread from wet markets.  Infected people traveled all over the world before it was known, and it was likely covered up for a while, increasing the spread.  Then no one knew the severity of the issue. 

Now it has spread across the globe.

I know it is the trendy thing to jump on Trump and blame him because of his bluster and his general dis-likability, But, in case you haven't noticed, basically the same situation is playing out everywhere.  South Korea is the only country that seems to have handled this well.  Even Germany, who is also getting praised for their response, is at 10 deaths per million in population.  Right now the US is at 12.  Now, that number is sure to rise, on both counts, and has risen in the last few days.  South Korea is at 3 for reference.  Italy and Spain are about 200.  France is over 50.  The UK at 35.  Trump downplaying the disease had nothing to do with the response in those countries.  No one knew.  Really until Italy crashed, no one knew how bad this was going to be. 

Comments like the above don't help anything and are overly simple and just finger pointing.  It doesn't acknowledge the truth of how we got here.  There were plenty of people from all parts of the political spectrum that dismissed this.  And plenty of people from all over the political spectrum that have disregarded the suggested measures to stop the spread. 

 

What about-isms are exactly how we got here, and how we continue to go down this path.

[turnin' two]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

What about-isms are exactly how we got here, and how we continue to go down this path.

You missed the point entirely. 

[Texsox]

Well my governor decided to allow churches to meet. (As an ordained pastor I wonder if I can hold services at my local wine club for members only). Abbott went from not doing anything and allowing local governments to decide, to issuing statewide restrictions, to over ruling local leaders in about ten days. Although I do hope we can keep drive through margaritas. It was nice pulling away with a couple quality drinks. 

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200331/abbott-issues-statewide-stay-at-home-order-allows-religious-services

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

You missed the point entirely. 

Your point was wrong.  The idea that some how this was somehow not able to be mitigated and minimized is flat out, 100% wrong.  All of the What Abouts in the post don't excuse the leadership of this country from their negligence of duty.  The mixed messages and finger pointing start right at the top.  From saying it would be gone by April to a Democratic hoax have allowed a large portion of our population to not take this event as seriously as they should, and allowed them to pretend that science and medical advice are somehow fungible with Presidential gut feelings and Karen's on the internet who heard something 3rd hand.

We KNOW these types of events are inevitable.  They are constant through history.  We have entire agencies who are dedicated to exactly these eventualities, and they were flat out ignored and sidelined in the days of this where we could have worked ahead.  We knew this was happening in January.  It was obvious to the people who do this stuff for a living that it would go world wide.  If we as a country had actually started ramping up medical response then, instead of waiting until the pandemic was rampaging through the country, we could have saved lives.   A singular and consistent message from the top is where that starts.  Or that is at least where it should have started.  The states and governors who STILL refuse to see this have something in common in that they take their walking notes from the President.  You literally have people drinking aquarium cleaner based on the President's advice, yet pretend that the President being out in front of this couldn't have made a difference?  Nope.  I won't accept that contradiction.  You can what about with Italy and Germany, but I won't accept that.  Their response was also botched.  There are plenty of other industrialized countries who took the advice and saved lives.  That is the standard I expect from the USA.  We have the best scientific community in the world, and the capability to shift resources like no other country in the world.  That is the standard I hold this country to.  We knew this storm was coming for two months and our leadership laughed and mocked it.

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Your point was wrong.  The idea that some how this was somehow not able to be mitigated and minimized is flat out, 100% wrong.  All of the What Abouts in the post don't excuse the leadership of this country from their negligence of duty.  The mixed messages and finger pointing start right at the top.  From saying it would be gone by April to a Democratic hoax have allowed a large portion of our population to not take this event as seriously as they should, and allowed them to pretend that science and medical advice are somehow fungible with Presidential gut feelings and Karen's on the internet who heard something 3rd hand.

We KNOW these types of events are inevitable.  They are constant through history.  We have entire agencies who are dedicated to exactly these eventualities, and they were flat out ignored and sidelined in the days of this where we could have worked ahead.  We knew this was happening in January.  It was obvious to the people who do this stuff for a living that it would go world wide.  If we as a country had actually started ramping up medical response then, instead of waiting until the pandemic was rampaging through the country, we could have saved lives.   A singular and consistent message from the top is where that starts.  Or that is at least where it should have started.  The states and governors who STILL refuse to see this have something in common in that they take their walking notes from the President.  You literally have people drinking aquarium cleaner based on the President's advice, yet pretend that the President being out in front of this couldn't have made a difference?  Nope.  I won't accept that contradiction.  You can what about with Italy and Germany, but I won't accept that.  Their response was also botched.  There are plenty of other industrialized countries who took the advice and saved lives.  That is the standard I expect from the USA.  We have the best scientific community in the world, and the capability to shift resources like no other country in the world.  That is the standard I hold this country to.  We knew this storm was coming for two months and our leadership laughed and mocked it.

Italy and Spain?  Germany hit this hard with surveillance testing right from the start...considering they had some of the first cases in Europe, like WA and CA in the US.  Having the optimal ratio of dedicated nursing care to patients has been yet another positive factor in their success, at least so far.

Edited April 1, 2020 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

It's definitely true that other countries have handled this poorly as well, but the US seems to be taking the lead.

Partially it's thanks to hacks like this who rushed out to tell us all it's no big deal, it's all a hoax, it'll blow over, just another political hitjob while they were enriching themselves off of the pending crisis.

 

[chitownsportsfan]

I'm old enough to remember when the US simply being "as good as (meaning as bad as) the rest of the world" at handling shit like this was seen as unacceptable.  Of course the GOP tricked Americans into thinking Good Governance doesn't matter, at least as long as you could point the finger at your neighbor for why your life stalled out.

What a pathetic situation the GOP has created in America.   This is where we are at.  Simply "not being China" or "doing about as well as Europe" is considered strong leadership.

[bmags]

To whatever extent the US has mitigated the death toll has a lot to do with individual governors that had to fight against guidance from the feds, which is opposite of how it's rolling out nearly every where else in the world, where the federal gov't is leading the changes.

The federal response has been atrocious, but luckily the US has a lot of actors from states to hospitals to philanthropists to companies (props to tech) that acted early to mitigate.

I also remember a time where it used to be expected that the US would have the top response, now it's okay if they aren't so long as others also failed. Germany is testing 300k per day. When we don't have our worst states rationing our tests we can talk about how great a job our federal gov't is doing, and the man in charge of it.

[turnin' two]

2 minutes ago, Tony said:

That doesn't give Trump, or anyone for that matter, a pass. 

Who is doing that?  OK some are, I'm certainly not.  I have said several time that the failure to be prepared and to have more wide scale testing was a huge blunder.  

18 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Your point was wrong.  The idea that some how this was somehow not able to be mitigated and minimized is flat out, 100% wrong.  All of the What Abouts in the post don't excuse the leadership of this country from their negligence of duty.  The mixed messages and finger pointing start right at the top.  From saying it would be gone by April to a Democratic hoax have allowed a large portion of our population to not take this event as seriously as they should, and allowed them to pretend that science and medical advice are somehow fungible with Presidential gut feelings and Karen's on the internet who heard something 3rd hand.

We KNOW these types of events are inevitable.  They are constant through history.  We have entire agencies who are dedicated to exactly these eventualities, and they were flat out ignored and sidelined in the days of this where we could have worked ahead.  We knew this was happening in January.  It was obvious to the people who do this stuff for a living that it would go world wide.  If we as a country had actually started ramping up medical response then, instead of waiting until the pandemic was rampaging through the country, we could have saved lives.   A singular and consistent message from the top is where that starts.  Or that is at least where it should have started.  The states and governors who STILL refuse to see this have something in common in that they take their walking notes from the President.  You literally have people drinking aquarium cleaner based on the President's advice, yet pretend that the President being out in front of this couldn't have made a difference?  Nope.  I won't accept that contradiction.  You can what about with Italy and Germany, but I won't accept that.  Their response was also botched.  There are plenty of other industrialized countries who took the advice and saved lives.  That is the standard I expect from the USA.  We have the best scientific community in the world, and the capability to shift resources like no other country in the world.  That is the standard I hold this country to.  We knew this storm was coming for two months and our leadership laughed and mocked it.

1) Not what I said.  You missed the point.  

2) I don't think the extent of it was that obvious.  If it was, there would have been more of a response throughout the world.  Preparing in the way you mention would have absolutely been the right call and would have absolutely saved lives.  Looking back, it is terribly obvious.  But if you take Monday morning QBing out of it, maybe the response wasn't obvious.  The proof seems to be in the way that everyone no one, other than South Korea responded in that way.  If the solution was so clear it would have been adapted by more countries.

3)Never said that.  Never pretended that.  

4) South Korea, ok.  Who else?  Plenty... don't know if that's the right word.  You're right, though.  That is the standard we should expect.  The response through February (and into March) was terrible.  But it was that way for the whole world.  So maybe it wasn't as 

You can ignore the rest of the world if you want.  But I've always thought that context matters.  

[Dick Allen]

19 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Who is doing that?  OK some are, I'm certainly not.  I have said several time that the failure to be prepared and to have more wide scale testing was a huge blunder.  

1) Not what I said.  You missed the point.  

2) I don't think the extent of it was that obvious.  If it was, there would have been more of a response throughout the world.  Preparing in the way you mention would have absolutely been the right call and would have absolutely saved lives.  Looking back, it is terribly obvious.  But if you take Monday morning QBing out of it, maybe the response wasn't obvious.  The proof seems to be in the way that everyone no one, other than South Korea responded in that way.  If the solution was so clear it would have been adapted by more countries.

3)Never said that.  Never pretended that.  

4) South Korea, ok.  Who else?  Plenty... don't know if that's the right word.  You're right, though.  That is the standard we should expect.  The response through February (and into March) was terrible.  But it was that way for the whole world.  So maybe it wasn't as 

You can ignore the rest of the world if you want.  But I've always thought that context matters.  

It was obvious enough that the president called it the next democratic hoax. Would have been nice if there was a pandemic team. 

And blaming the system as obsolete, this administration was in powef for 3 years prior, and didn't do anything until the horse was out of the barn. Why do they try to blame previous administrations? 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

27 minutes ago, bmags said:

To whatever extent the US has mitigated the death toll has a lot to do with individual governors that had to fight against guidance from the feds, which is opposite of how it's rolling out nearly every where else in the world, where the federal gov't is leading the changes.

The federal response has been atrocious, but luckily the US has a lot of actors from states to hospitals to philanthropists to companies (props to tech) that acted early to mitigate.

I also remember a time where it used to be expected that the US would have the top response, now it's okay if they aren't so long as others also failed. Germany is testing 300k per day. When we don't have our worst states rationing our tests we can talk about how great a job our federal gov't is doing, and the man in charge of it.

The state level response is directly coordinated to the federal response.  If the Feds had been out front, clear, and consistent with the message, it would have been nearly impossible for governors to do otherwise.  We have seen how the Senate and House fall into line behind the President, I doubt the governors would have been much different.  This fog of doubt that the President established from Day 1, has allowed states to hide in it, even to this day.

[bmags]

29 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Who is doing that?  OK some are, I'm certainly not.  I have said several time that the failure to be prepared and to have more wide scale testing was a huge blunder.  

1) Not what I said.  You missed the point.  

2) I don't think the extent of it was that obvious.  If it was, there would have been more of a response throughout the world.  Preparing in the way you mention would have absolutely been the right call and would have absolutely saved lives.  Looking back, it is terribly obvious.  But if you take Monday morning QBing out of it, maybe the response wasn't obvious.  The proof seems to be in the way that everyone no one, other than South Korea responded in that way.  If the solution was so clear it would have been adapted by more countries.

3)Never said that.  Never pretended that.  

4) South Korea, ok.  Who else?  Plenty... don't know if that's the right word.  You're right, though.  That is the standard we should expect.  The response through February (and into March) was terrible.  But it was that way for the whole world.  So maybe it wasn't as 

You can ignore the rest of the world if you want.  But I've always thought that context matters.  

Taiwan, Hong Kong Germany and Singapore have all done better jobs. Canada has been testing more per 100k until recently.

And of course Iceland and Estonia.

[chitownsportsfan]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The state level response is directly coordinated to the federal response.  If the Feds had been out front, clear, and consistent with the message, it would have been nearly impossible for governors to do otherwise.  We have seen how the Senate and House fall into line behind the President, I doubt the governors would have been much different.  This fog of doubt that the President established from Day 1, has allowed states to hide in it, even to this day.

Yup.  Like watching a team with a weak manager try and get on the same page. Good luck.  Leadership starts at the top and the "leadership" from Washington thought this thing would "be down from 15 to zero" if he didn't let a cruise ship dock.  I mean, is this real life?  Are we really in this with Trump at the helm steering the ship in a circle and asking all his deputies to plot a course to safe harbor while he keeps grabbing the rudder every other minute?

[southsider2k5]

27 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Who is doing that?  OK some are, I'm certainly not.  I have said several time that the failure to be prepared and to have more wide scale testing was a huge blunder.  

1) Not what I said.  You missed the point.  

2) I don't think the extent of it was that obvious.  If it was, there would have been more of a response throughout the world.  Preparing in the way you mention would have absolutely been the right call and would have absolutely saved lives.  Looking back, it is terribly obvious.  But if you take Monday morning QBing out of it, maybe the response wasn't obvious.  The proof seems to be in the way that everyone no one, other than South Korea responded in that way.  If the solution was so clear it would have been adapted by more countries.

3)Never said that.  Never pretended that.  

4) South Korea, ok.  Who else?  Plenty... don't know if that's the right word.  You're right, though.  That is the standard we should expect.  The response through February (and into March) was terrible.  But it was that way for the whole world.  So maybe it wasn't as 

You can ignore the rest of the world if you want.  But I've always thought that context matters.  

Clue #1 should have been  the Chinese response.  The fact that they locked everyone down, at the expense of their economy, is really all you had to know. Past that, there were daily stages where this was obvious for anyone who wanted to see it.  Heck here in this very thread we had a guy literally in the city of Wuhan telling us his stories.

Look at the case list.  Look at places like India, Indonesia, Japan, and Malaysia who are right on China's doorstep and have mitigated this amazing well compared to use who is an ocean away.  Indonesia has about 80% of our population, 5 times our population density, and no where near the medical care that we have.  Indian has a billion + people and shares a border with China.

It has been done much better by many.

[turnin' two]

16 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

It was obvious enough that the president called it the next democratic hoax. Would have been nice if there was a pandemic team. 

And blaming the system as obsolete, this administration was in powef for 3 years prior, and didn't do anything until the horse was out of the barn. Why do they try to blame previous administrations? 

Not sure why you quoted me.  None of this has anything to do with what I said.

[chitownsportsfan]

@southsider2k5 eh I wouldn't trust the numbers from India or any of SEA outside SK and Japan really.   That said, that we are even in a world where the Indonesian response in any way comparable to the US' is just sad and depressing.

 

@turnin' two you're a trumpkin we get it.  nothing dear leader does is ever bad.  or if it's bad, it's only because of the democrats or the media and is it really that bad anyways compared to...

Trump is a joke man.  His inaction is and was a joke.  His pressers, where he can't articulate a position,  can't answer any questions, are a joke.  His entire fucking existence is a joke and we have him in charge in the greatest crisis since WWII.

God help us all man.

Edited April 1, 2020 by chitownsportsfan

[StrangeSox]

The response is still terrible and that includes some governors who are otherwise handling it well, like JB who went ahead with in-person primaries on March 17th.

 

 

I started stocking up on food and cleaning products in late February, and even that was later than I really wanted to. This was obviously going to get very, very bad. I won't say I fully appreciated how bad and how quickly, but at the same time the heads of the United States government were insisting that this was nothing, it'd be gone by April, nobody in America is really that much at risk, it's all a political hit-job by a desperate opposition, stock market hitting record highs!

Yes, other countries have had poor responses as well, but the US response is shaping up to be pretty uniquely terrible. Earlier today, Vice President Pence said our situation is now most comparable to Italy.

We are in for a very rough couple of weeks ahead.

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

@southsider2k5 eh I wouldn't trust the numbers from India or any of SEA outside SK and Japan really.   That said, that we are even in a world where the Indonesian response in any way comparable to the US' is just sad and depressing.

Even if you take Indonesia and factor them up by 100X's, we still have more cases than they do.

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

The response is still terrible and that includes some governors who are otherwise handling it well, like JB who went ahead with in-person primaries on March 17th.

 

 

I started stocking up on food and cleaning products in late February, and even that was later than I really wanted to. This was obviously going to get very, very bad. I won't say I fully appreciated how bad and how quickly, but at the same time the heads of the United States government were insisting that this was nothing, it'd be gone by April, nobody in America is really that much at risk, it's all a political hit-job by a desperate opposition, stock market hitting record highs!

Yes, other countries have had poor responses as well, but the US response is shaping up to be pretty uniquely terrible. Earlier today, Vice President Pence said our situation is now most comparable to Italy.

We are in for a very rough couple of weeks ahead.

We still really haven't bent the curve, even though we are in the 3rd week of sort of taking this serious nationally.  The scary part is that deaths are a trailing feature of cases, so we are no where near the peak fatality rate.

[chitownsportsfan]

3 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

The response is still terrible and that includes some governors who are otherwise handling it well, like JB who went ahead with in-person primaries on March 17th.

 

 

I started stocking up on food and cleaning products in late February, and even that was later than I really wanted to. This was obviously going to get very, very bad. I won't say I fully appreciated how bad and how quickly, but at the same time the heads of the United States government were insisting that this was nothing, it'd be gone by April, nobody in America is really that much at risk, it's all a political hit-job by a desperate opposition, stock market hitting record highs!

Yes, other countries have had poor responses as well, but the US response is shaping up to be pretty uniquely terrible. Earlier today, Vice President Pence said our situation is now most comparable to Italy.

We are in for a very rough couple of weeks ahead.

Eh, I wouldn't worry about food so much as paying rent and other bills.  I can tell you that from experience in Seattle the first two weeks saw all the hoarding.  We are so far past that now (onto week 5 now) the stores are flush with TP and chicken thighs and all that again.  It's just that NOBODY is operating a business.  If you are, like myself, you're doing it with extreme caution, with reduced hours, at about 50% volume and have furloughed or just laid off your workers.

This is a unique crisis and fortunately many Americans are taking it more seriously than the POTUS.  But I wouldn't worry about food as much as jobs.