COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

Y

Good luck with your self quarantine.  Remember to seal up the home with saran wrap and aluminum foil.  The first creates a virus barrier and the other keeps the government from reading your mind.  I hope it works out for you.  

 

 

And like I said, I'm not even doing that. I just think that what's happening in Italy and China is going to happen here and worldwide. 

I'm not doing anything differently until more info comes out. 

Edited March 10, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsideirish71]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

And like I said, I'm not even doing that. I just think that what's happening in Italy and China is going to happen here and worldwide. 

 I'm not doing anything differently until more info comes out. 

You are a walking contradiction.  You were just advocating mandatory quarantine and now you will wait and see until more info comes out.    

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

You are a walking contradiction.  You were just advocating mandatory quarantine and now you will wait and see until more info comes out.    

I'm saying that if it is an inevitability they should just do it now. 

I don't have all of the info to make that decision one way or another. 

Sorry if there was a misunderstanding there. 

The major question is whether or not mandatory quarantine is inevitable. Once it becomes fairly clear that it is, they should act, and that scenario is much more likely than most want to admit. 

Edited March 10, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsideirish71]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm saying that if it is an inevitability they should just do it now. 

Lead the way...I will hopefully see you in the future times, after the sick sick time.  

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by southsideirish71

[greg775]

Good thread. I love the posts.

Random thoughts ...

a.) when i'm in a normal optimistic mood: We're all going to be OK. The weather is going to be warm/hot soon and most people I know NEVER get sick in the summer. Does the heat help burn away the germs? I don't know. I'm hoping yes. Also the USA hasn;'t been hit with many cases. I'm thinking business as usual and don't worry be happy.

b.) when I read the Websites at night and get "informed." Well Italy today shut everything down. No events with crowds, etc. This is bothersome. I wonder if it's necessary to do this, then I wonder if yes it is necessary that we in the USA are going to be shut down soon. I have 8 rolls of TP so I haven't checked the stores here yet to see if the shelves are void of toilet paper, etc. I wonder in a pessimistic mood if the upcoming NCAA Tournament and all those full arenas for 3 weeks won't REALLY infect a ton of people. And MLB is generally outdoors so will the outdoor air help keep the disease in the atmosphere and not in our bodies? I worry about things that are fun being canceled: church, sporting events, concerts, summerfests, movies, etc?

When I'm feeling optimistic and read that several countries are quarantining all people when they arrive via plane for 14 days? It's hmmmm. 14 days?

My overall mood is don't worry, be happy. Don't panic. When I catch up on the news at night, my mood is "hmmm ... if Italy thinks this is so serious ... are we doomed soon in the USA?"

[Jack Parkman]

8 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

Lead the way...I will hopefully see you in the future times, after the sick sick time.  

 

I just think that there's a middle ground between ignoring this and full fledged panic. 

Most of what I'm saying is playing devil's advocate to the minimizing in this thread. I'm not trying to incite panic, but instead trying to get people to take this more seriously. That would explain the conflicting messages. 

If I'd rate my concern on a level of 1-10 I'd put it at a 6. 

Edited March 10, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsideirish71]

9 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm saying that if it is an inevitability they should just do it now. 

I don't have all of the info to make that decision one way or another. 

Sorry if there was a misunderstanding there. 

The major question is whether or not mandatory quarantine is inevitable. Once it becomes fairly clear that it is, they should act, and that scenario is much more likely than most want to admit. 

Okay one point of parliamentary procedure in the forum Jack.   Its okay to revise part of a post to fix a typo.  Its hard however to follow a line of thought when you go back to posts to add about 90% more content.  Shadow editing makes your posts almost impossible to follow and read.  

[Jack Parkman]

I just saw that the Bay Area in California has placed a ban on large gatherings. It seems like things are following the same trajectory as China/Italy. 

[caulfield12]

We don’t know” how many coronavirus tests have been done, says US health secretary

From CNN’s Amanda Watts

US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar says his department isn’t sure how many tests for the novel coronavirus have been performed in the United States.

Speaking to CNN’s John Berman on New Day Tuesday, Azar said: “We don't know exactly how many because of hundreds of thousands of our tests have gone out to private labs and hospitals that currently do not report in to CDC. 

"We're working with the CDC and those partners to get an IT reporting system up and running hopefully this week where we would be able to get that data to keep track of how many we're testing,” he added.

Azar went on to say: “We think we've got probably 10,000 a day could be getting tested by the end of the week -- 20,000 a day according to a study by AEI that I've heard about. We've got 2.1 million tests available, 1.1 million have shipped. We actually have a surplus at the moment that are awaiting orders to be shipped.”

“A private vendor shipped most of those 1.1 million that shipped were from a private vendor selling to their customers, and those entities that used their tests do not have to report back to CDC. But we're trying to set up a reporting system where they would in effect do that,” Azar said.

 

Not exactly encouraging.   Somehow Johns Hopkins can track what’s going on...along with most of the countries in the world...but with all the Cal Tech and MIT whiz kids we don’t even have a rudimentary IT reporting system???

Yet I guess one shouldn’t be that surprised after all the delays in counting with the Iowa and Nevada caucuses, California primary results, etc.  

Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea seem to have this down.  Japan’s definitely a question mark with the Olympics looming and needing to make a final decision sometime in late April or early May.
 

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by caulfield12

[NorthSideSox72]

13 hours ago, mqr said:

Something I’m struggling with is why the US is lagging so far behind Italy. Yes I know we aren’t adequately testing, but as far as I know there still aren’t jammed up hospitals. 
 

I find it hard to believe this would spread to Italy significantly faster than the US

Have you been to Italy?

I love Italy but it is the polar opposite of a country like Germany. They couldn't really "lock down" much of anything even if they wanted to, not effectively. The government agencies are just far too disorganized, and the people far too devil-may-care, for them to handle something like this very well. Not at all surprised that Italy is struggling hardest in Europe, though Greece being similar would also not surprise me.

 

[bmags]

35 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Have you been to Italy?

I love Italy but it is the polar opposite of a country like Germany. They couldn't really "lock down" much of anything even if they wanted to, not effectively. The government agencies are just far too disorganized, and the people far too devil-may-care, for them to handle something like this very well. Not at all surprised that Italy is struggling hardest in Europe, though Greece being similar would also not surprise me.

 

Greece seems like it has geographical advantages there.

[caulfield12]

Going by the warmer weather theory, Greece would seem to be at an advantage.

But that doesn’t necessarily account for countries like Iran or Singapore...Spain, as well.

Edited March 10, 2020 by caulfield12

[NorthSideSox72]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

Greece seems like it has geographical advantages there.

Maybe? I don't know, was just pointing out that Greece, if it was faced with a cell of the infection, would probably struggle the same way Italy does. The only internal advantage I see for them is fewer large urban centers and a more rural-spread population.

 

[ptatc]

10 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

The alternatives are worse, so what the hell are we supposed to do? Just let this thing take its course and let people die? 

I've yet to hear a viable alternative. We can either shut it down now or later but it's going to get shut down eventually. 

We've had 2 countries already declare at the very least a regional quarantine, with a national one in Italy. 

It's just a matter of time before it happens everywhere else, so why endanger more people than you have to? 

So I ask you, what's the alternative? 

The best course would be for people that are at risk for being critically sick to quarantine themselves this way. For 95% of the population you be smart about and do thing you should do anyway with hygiene. Will people get sick yes, will a few die probably. But it will be less than your average flu season if those precautions are followed.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

The best course would be for people that are at risk for being critically sick to quarantine themselves this way. For 95% of the population you be smart about and do thing you should do anyway with hygiene. Will people get sick yes, will a few die probably. But it will be less than your average flu season if those precautions are followed.

Which would be fine if the mortality rate wasn’t 20-30x higher and there was a known vaccine to fight back with...in a way, it might not matter at this point.

There’s likely to be a second or third wave and Covid-19 could easily be added to the annual flu season line-up each year as it mutates.

But here’s the problem with this approach...

 

A leading epidemiologist suggested that the coronavirus could infect 60% of the world's population, based on its estimated "attack rate," if it's left "unchecked."

Dr. Gabriel Leung told The Guardian's Sarah Boseley on Tuesday that "60% of the world's population is an awfully big number."

Leung's estimate was based on the rate at which people with the virus are passing it on, which experts have said could stand at 2.5 people per infected person, according to Reuters.

Leung, a SARS expert who also managed Hong Kong's response to the swine-flu outbreak of 2009, spoke to The Guardian en route to a global research forum convened by the World Health Organization in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-could-infect-60-percent-of-world-unchecked-gabriel-leung-2020-2

Even if he’s off by a magnitude of 5-6x lesser spread (based on Chinese initial projections of 500,000 vs. 83,000), it would ultimately kill roughly 6-10 million people around the world.   And, for every “success” like China, Singapore and South Korea...the risks for the rest of the globe go up with every potential failure like Italy or Iran.

[ptatc]

24 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Which would be fine if the mortality rate wasn’t 20-30x higher and there was a known vaccine to fight back with...in a way, it might not matter at this point.

There’s likely to be a second or third wave and Covid-19 could easily be added to the annual flu season line-up each year as it mutates.

But here’s the problem with this approach...

 

A leading epidemiologist suggested that the coronavirus could infect 60% of the world's population, based on its estimated "attack rate," if it's left "unchecked."

Dr. Gabriel Leung told The Guardian's Sarah Boseley on Tuesday that "60% of the world's population is an awfully big number."

Leung's estimate was based on the rate at which people with the virus are passing it on, which experts have said could stand at 2.5 people per infected person, according to Reuters.

Leung, a SARS expert who also managed Hong Kong's response to the swine-flu outbreak of 2009, spoke to The Guardian en route to a global research forum convened by the World Health Organization in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-could-infect-60-percent-of-world-unchecked-gabriel-leung-2020-2

Even if he’s off by a magnitude of 5-6x lesser spread (based on Chinese initial projections of 500,000 vs. 83,000), it would ultimately kill roughly 6-10 million people around the world.   And, for every “success” like China, Singapore and South Korea...the risks for the rest of the globe go up with every potential failure like Italy or Iran.

It would still be the best way as it takes the people most susceptible to severe symptoms of the equation and allows for relative continuation of society.

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, ptatc said:

It would still be the best way as it takes the people most susceptible to severe symptoms of the equation and allows for relative continuation of society.

Sure...well, one of the costs here was nobody could see loved ones when they died as their bodies were taken away by men in hazmat suits like a scene out of ET.  No funerals or mourning music.  Just hundreds of bodies bring cremated, day after day.  Can Americans live with that type of sacrifice and surrender having a feeling of closure if relatives die in isolation wards in hospitals?

Hard to imagine it...it’s what they tried to do at Kirkland and the families started flipping out.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, ptatc said:

The best course would be for people that are at risk for being critically sick to quarantine themselves this way. For 95% of the population you be smart about and do thing you should do anyway with hygiene. Will people get sick yes, will a few die probably. But it will be less than your average flu season if those precautions are followed.

1. Evidence from Italy says this is absolutely wrong, that because no one has any immunity to this and it is more severe than the average flu, dramatically more people will die.

2. Even if it was true, letting 20,000 people die (less than an average flu season) would be something most would say is really bad. If there was a chemical weapons attack that killed 20,000 people in 2015, what would your reaction have been? Certainly not "This is no big deal". The degree to which your statements are callous and cold-blooded is rather astonishing. 

3. From what we've already seen from this virus we know the reasons why people who are at risk being quarantined is not enough. First of all,  it seems something like 1/3 to 1/2 of people who are infected show little to no effect, but they can still be contagious and serve as transmission vectors. Second, it seems the virus has about a 2 week incubation period before even the people who get seriously sick show symptoms, during that time they can still be contagious. For both of those reasons, even if the people who are critically sick, or people who are at risk quarantine themselves, that quarantine will be totally ineffective.

[Balta1701]

11 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I just think that there's a middle ground between ignoring this and full fledged panic. 

Most of what I'm saying is playing devil's advocate to the minimizing in this thread. I'm not trying to incite panic, but instead trying to get people to take this more seriously. That would explain the conflicting messages. 

If I'd rate my concern on a level of 1-10 I'd put it at a 6. 

The real trick remains - if on a scale of 1-10 you act like you're in the 6-8 range, then it's possible you will only need to be in the 2-3 range.

If you instead say it's "no big deal, some people will die but that's it" and act in the 1-2 range...then you create a situation where you should have panicked more, because now you've allowed it to become more widespread more rapidly.

[Balta1701]

11 hours ago, greg775 said:

Good thread. I love the posts.

Random thoughts ...

a.) when i'm in a normal optimistic mood: We're all going to be OK. The weather is going to be warm/hot soon and most people I know NEVER get sick in the summer. Does the heat help burn away the germs? I don't know. I'm hoping yes. Also the USA hasn;'t been hit with many cases. I'm thinking business as usual and don't worry be happy.

b.) when I read the Websites at night and get "informed." Well Italy today shut everything down. No events with crowds, etc. This is bothersome. I wonder if it's necessary to do this, then I wonder if yes it is necessary that we in the USA are going to be shut down soon. I have 8 rolls of TP so I haven't checked the stores here yet to see if the shelves are void of toilet paper, etc. I wonder in a pessimistic mood if the upcoming NCAA Tournament and all those full arenas for 3 weeks won't REALLY infect a ton of people. And MLB is generally outdoors so will the outdoor air help keep the disease in the atmosphere and not in our bodies? I worry about things that are fun being canceled: church, sporting events, concerts, summerfests, movies, etc?

When I'm feeling optimistic and read that several countries are quarantining all people when they arrive via plane for 14 days? It's hmmmm. 14 days?

My overall mood is don't worry, be happy. Don't panic. When I catch up on the news at night, my mood is "hmmm ... if Italy thinks this is so serious ... are we doomed soon in the USA?"

a. It is certainly possible that this virus will struggle to survive more when it's hot, but we don't know enough to say for sure. Also, history has a lesson here. In 1918, the so-called "Spanish Flu" virus first appeared in the spring, and then its impact lessened over  the summer, only to flare up to its real peak in the fall.

b. We're not "Doomed",  but we're shaping up for things to be very bad. The government is not coordinating responses to this at all and as a consequence different states are doing different things. Houston still is bringing tens of thousands of people to their rodeo every night. If the NCAA tournament games do happen, then yes infected people will show up. When these cases hit hospitals, the situation in those sites is going to be a nightmare.

If your mood is "Don't panic" that's ok, but it should be with the qualifier "Don't panic, be prepared". What would you do if you if you couldn't shop for a few weeks? Is 8 rolls enough for you to get by for 2 months? I will admit I stocked up on TP, dog food, snacks, and a few other things last week. 

[ptatc]

39 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

1. Evidence from Italy says this is absolutely wrong, that because no one has any immunity to this and it is more severe than the average flu, dramatically more people will die.

2. Even if it was true, letting 20,000 people die (less than an average flu season) would be something most would say is really bad. If there was a chemical weapons attack that killed 20,000 people in 2015, what would your reaction have been? Certainly not "This is no big deal". The degree to which your statements are callous and cold-blooded is rather astonishing. 

3. From what we've already seen from this virus we know the reasons why people who are at risk being quarantined is not enough. First of all,  it seems something like 1/3 to 1/2 of people who are infected show little to no effect, but they can still be contagious and serve as transmission vectors. Second, it seems the virus has about a 2 week incubation period before even the people who get seriously sick show symptoms, during that time they can still be contagious. For both of those reasons, even if the people who are critically sick, or people who are at risk quarantine themselves, that quarantine will be totally ineffective.

All of these are based on the general population. It still makes sense that if you take out the most susceptible the numbers will be far lower than any of those numbers you cited. The stats are still showing that 75%-85% of all of the cases are going to be mild. Decreasing the large group events also makes sense. 

 

i've never said it's no big deal. You continue to say it but I never have. Saying I'm callous and cold blooded is also an insult and I don't appreciate it. 

I've only presented ways that the medical community is looking at ways to decrease the spread and not have everything shut down which is not realistic.

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by ptatc

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

All of these are based on the general population. It still makes sense that if you take out the most susceptible the numbers will be far lower than any of those numbers you cited. The stats are still showing that 75%-85% of all of the cases are going to be mild. Decreasing the large group events also makes sense. 

 

i've never said it's no big deal. You continue to say it but I never have. Saying I'm callous and cold blooded is also an insult and I don't appreciate it. 

I've only presented ways that the medical community is looking at ways to decrease the spread and not have everything shut down which is not realistic.

 

 "Will people get sick yes, will a few die probably" is language you might want to rethink using if you don't want to make someone feel you're saying that it's ok if they die.

[Jack Parkman]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-cancel-everything/607675/

[Jerksticks]

55 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 "Will people get sick yes, will a few die probably" is language you might want to rethink using if you don't want to make someone feel you're saying that it's ok if they die.

Wait a minute.  We’re SO progressive now that we can’t mention death in a conversation about a virus killing people?  
 

We have hurt feelings by the unaffected while real people are actually suffering, dying and losing loved ones?

 

Hawk would just say, “mercy”

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Wait a minute.  We’re SO progressive now that we can’t mention death in a conversation about a virus killing people?  
 

We have hurt feelings by the unaffected while real people are actually suffering, dying and losing loved ones?

 

Hawk would just say, “mercy”

If your whole message is why it isn't a big deal and that's part of the reason why it isn't  a big deal,  yeah I'll call you out for it.