Betts to Dodgers

[bmags]

36 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox were not in a position to part with Madrigal alone. Do this deal without Vaughn, Madrigal, Kopech, Jiminez, Cease, Robert, Moncada, or Giolito. 

Sox will crumble without madrigal

[Soxnfins]

17 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/david-ortiz/745/stats?position=DH

Here’s a good example of a player who exploded after age 26/27.

JDM as well.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

Sox will crumble without madrigal

Do you know how hard it is to find a league average 2B?

[TomPickle]

18 minutes ago, Soxnfins said:

JDM as well.

There are 96 players that have at least 2000 PA since 2016 when Mazara was called up to the majors. Mazara ranks 93rd.

But Mazara was extremely young during that time you say. True, so let's look at historical numbers. In the history of baseball Mazara is among only 267 players that have amassed 2000 or more PAs before turning 25. Among those he is the 257th most valuable. Since 1980 there have been 78 such players. Mazara ranks 77th. Only Delmon Young has been a bigger bust among players to garner significant playing time.

But other guys have gotten better! Mazara is a guy! He'll get better!

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

There are 96 players that have at least 2000 PA since 2016 when Mazara was called up to the majors. Mazara ranks 93rd.

But Mazara was extremely young during that time you say. True, so let's look at historical numbers. In the history of baseball Mazara is among only 267 players that have amassed 2000 or more PAs before turning 25. Among those he is the 257th most valuable. Since 1980 there have been 78 such players. Mazara ranks 77th. Only Delmon Young has been a bigger bust among players to garner significant playing time.

But other guys have gotten better! Mazara is a guy! He'll get better!

A link to this info would be helpful. Thanks.

[TomPickle]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

A link to this info would be helpful. Thanks.

Since 2016

All-time under 25

Since 1980 under 25 (it's actually 76 out 77)

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

There are 96 players that have at least 2000 PA since 2016 when Mazara was called up to the majors. Mazara ranks 93rd.

But Mazara was extremely young during that time you say. True, so let's look at historical numbers. In the history of baseball Mazara is among only 267 players that have amassed 2000 or more PAs before turning 25. Among those he is the 257th most valuable. Since 1980 there have been 78 such players. Mazara ranks 77th. Only Delmon Young has been a bigger bust among players to garner significant playing time.

But other guys have gotten better! Mazara is a guy! He'll get better!

He's 24 years old. If he was in AAA raking, people would be infatuated with his tools and upside. Because he has stalled out a bit at the big league level, people want to call him a finished product. Development isn't linear, and there was some underlying growth in Mazara's approach last year. 

Most guys are developing - whether in college or at A+ ball - at the age of 20/21. Mazara was preparing for his big league debut. That's a lot for some to handle; even moreso for a kid who has to assimilate into a new culture while competing against the best in the world.

Mazara may suck, but his upside hasn't changed due to a few stagnated years of big league play. I'm not going to hold getting to the big leagues at 21/22 against Mazara - in fact, I give him huge credit for that. That jump may have been too soon for him, and he may have had things to work out of his game still at a developmental level. He didn't get that chance, so he likely developed some poor habits, and lost some swagger/confidence. The good news is the tools that accelerated him faster than 99% of his peers are still there, and that potential still exists, it's just been clouded behind the challenges of developing in the best league in the world. Unlike most, I give Mazara a lot of credit for being that advanced at that age, and it gives me a lot of hope that his development isn't finished, and a change of scenery may be the best thing for a kid who lost his way a bit on a really difficult and challenging journey.

[BackDoorBreach]

Edited

I quoted the wrong person.

Edited February 6, 2020 by BackDoorBreach

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Since 2016

All-time under 25

Since 1980 under 25 (it's actually 76 out 77)

I view that 1980 list as a glowing endorsement of Mazara's talent and tools/ceiling - not a shot at his production through the age of 24. That list is littered with incredibly talented players who were significantly better than their peers at a very young age. That's an accomplishment on it's own.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, BackDoorBreach said:

It's almost like, being young is not a skill.

Being in the big leagues at 21 years old is 100% related to ones skills/tools. There's nothing else that drives a player up through the system that quickly.

[BackDoorBreach]

17 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

There are 96 players that have at least 2000 PA since 2016 when Mazara was called up to the majors. Mazara ranks 93rd.

But Mazara was extremely young during that time you say. True, so let's look at historical numbers. In the history of baseball Mazara is among only 267 players that have amassed 2000 or more PAs before turning 25. Among those he is the 257th most valuable. Since 1980 there have been 78 such players. Mazara ranks 77th. Only Delmon Young has been a bigger bust among players to garner significant playing time.

But other guys have gotten better! Mazara is a guy! He'll get better!

It's almost like, being young is not a skill.

[Dick Allen]

9 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Since 2016

All-time under 25

Since 1980 under 25 (it's actually 76 out 77)

What does that have to do with future results?  I think he's in a pretty nice neighborhood. Just remember the worst house in a great neighborhood is a lot better than the best house in a bad one. They guy will still be 24 on Opening Day. 

There are a lot of stars that would have had worse numbers if they were in the major leagues at the same age. 

The guy has a ton of talent. Hopefully, it comes out. If not, it was a good gamble.

 

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by Dick Allen

[BackDoorBreach]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Being in the big leagues at 21 years old is 100% related to ones skills/tools. There's nothing else that drives a player up through the system that quickly.

And when those tools don't translate to the MLB you are a DFA candidate, regardless of how young you are.  Been the exact same player for 4 years when accounting for league average.  Virtually zero improvement.

But it will just click now, because.

[TomPickle]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

What does that have to do with future results?  I think he's in a pretty nice neighborhood. Just remember the worst house in a great neighborhood is a lot better than the best house in a bad one. They guy will still be 24 on Opening Day.

Past production is the number one indicator of future results. What even is this question? It's not even like we're dealing with a small sample here. This is basically four full seasons of results.

9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

He's 24 years old. If he was in AAA raking, people would be infatuated with his tools and upside. Because he has stalled out a bit at the big league level, people want to call him a finished product. Development isn't linear, and there was some underlying growth in Mazara's approach last year. 

Most guys are developing - whether in college or at A+ ball - at the age of 20/21. Mazara was preparing for his big league debut. That's a lot for some to handle; even moreso for a kid who has to assimilate into a new culture while competing against the best in the world.

Mazara may suck, but his upside hasn't changed due to a few stagnated years of big league play. I'm not going to hold getting to the big leagues at 21/22 against Mazara - in fact, I give him huge credit for that. That jump may have been too soon for him, and he may have had things to work out of his game still at a developmental level. He didn't get that chance, so he likely developed some poor habits, and lost some swagger/confidence. The good news is the tools that accelerated him faster than 99% of his peers are still there, and that potential still exists, it's just been clouded behind the challenges of developing in the best league in the world. Unlike most, I give Mazara a lot of credit for being that advanced at that age, and it gives me a lot of hope that his development isn't finished, and a change of scenery may be the best thing for a kid who lost his way a bit on a really difficult and challenging journey.

Being on the list of players to get 2000+ PA under 25 is certainly indicative of some combination of talent, performance, and opportunity. He's still young, but to say his upside hasn't changed is crazy to me. He hasn't improved at all over four years. There's not no upside here as his similarity scores on baseball-reference feature multiple hall of famers still, but Jeff Francoeur is number 2 and that seems like a much more likely career path than him suddenly breaking out and being good to me. I would gladly be wrong and take a Jay Bruce career, who is number 6 most similar.

[Dick Allen]

10 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Past production is the number one indicator of future results. What even is this question? It's not even like we're dealing with a small sample here. This is basically four full seasons of results.

Being on the list of players to get 2000+ PA under 25 is certainly indicative of some combination of talent, performance, and opportunity. He's still young, but to say his upside hasn't changed is crazy to me. He hasn't improved at all over four years. There's not no upside here as his similarity scores on baseball-reference feature multiple hall of famers still, but Jeff Francoeur is number 2 and that seems like a much more likely career path than him suddenly breaking out and being good to me. I would gladly be wrong and take a Jay Bruce career, who is number 6 most similar.

The talent is still there. There are a lot of really good players you would have written off if you based their future results on what they did in the major leagues up to the age of 24.

If he would have been domininating AAA would you feel better about him?

Edited February 6, 2020 by Dick Allen

[Bob Sacamano]

Trading any of the top prospects for one year of Betts at this point would be fucking dumb./thread

[TomPickle]

7 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The talent is still there. There are a lot of really good players you would have written off if you based their future results on what they did in the major leagues up to the age of 24.

Change the PAs to 1500 under 25 and you more than double the amount of players that qualify. There are some guys that break out but most of the guys at the bottom of the list just don't end up being that good.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

Sox will crumble without madrigal

Oh and Encarnacion since you have to come up with an extra $40 million.

[Jerksticks]

It’s just both.  You can be all excited because he’s expected to be our worst position player but he still has all the young, scenery, upside rah rah.  
 

Or you can think “wtf.  This guy has 1000s of PA of mediocre- what more do you need to see?  Why didn’t they find a better RF to insulate the team from some slow rookie starts and regression?”

personally I’m expecting the latter, excited for the possibility of the former, but also thinking its worth the gamble for 1 year. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, Jerksticks said:

It’s just both.  You can be all excited because he’s expected to be our worst position player but he still has all the young, scenery, upside rah rah.  
 

Or you can think “wtf.  This guy has 1000s of PA of mediocre- what more do you need to see?  Why didn’t they find a better RF to insulate the team from some slow rookie starts and regression?”

personally I’m expecting the latter, excited for the possibility of the former, but also thinking its worth the gamble for 1 year. 

All of that would be true and reasonable but at the same time giving up minor league talent that you could control for 6+ years for that gamble is a mistake even if it works out this time. We've heard that same story before about how the guys we give up won't come back to bite us, and then it's true until it catastrophically wasn't. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

20 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

All of that would be true and reasonable but at the same time giving up minor league talent that you could control for 6+ years for that gamble is a mistake even if it works out this time. We've heard that same story before about how the guys we give up won't come back to bite us, and then it's true until it catastrophically wasn't. 

This is just batshit.

Nomar Mazara is 14 months older than Steele Walker. At Walker's age, Mazara had a 95 wRC+ in the big leagues. Steele Walker just had a 124 wRC+ at A+.

Mazara's 95 wRC+ translates to around a 170 wRC+ at A+ - although that scaling isn't perfect for obvious reasons.

If you think there's still a lot of development left in Walker solely because he was in A+ while there's no development left for Mazara because he was far too good for A+ at the same age, I really don't know what to say. You can't sit here and dream on Walker who has been 100% worse through the same age, while discounting the ceiling for a guy who was much more advanced at the same age.

Edited February 6, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This is just batshit.

Nomar Mazara is 14 months older than Steele Walker. At Walker's age, Mazara had a 95 wRC+ in the big leagues. Steele Walker just had a 124 wRC+ at A+.

Mazara's 95 wRC+ translates to around a 170 wRC+ at A+ - although that scaling isn't perfect for obvious reasons.

If you think there's still a lot of development left in Walker solely because he was in A+ while there's no development left for Mazara because he was far too good for A+ at the same age, I really don't know what to say. You can't sit here and dream on Walker who has been 100% worse through the same age, while discounting the ceiling for a guy who was much more advanced at the same age.

Note that I did not say "There's no development left for Mazara", that's the phrase you made up. In the post you replied to I literally said "Even if it works out this time", I literally left open the possibility you said I ignored. 

Even if there is development left for Mazara, it's giving up the 6 years of control to get a "might get better" guy who we only control for 2 years is the mistake. Because that's what sets it up to bite us. Even if Mazara shows substantial development - he's more expensive next year and then gone. And even if Walker shows no development and this case works out well, the reward is limited because he has only 2 years of control.

That's how you do low reward, moderate risk moves. And yeah, the odds are that this one won't bite us in the tail, but that's because the last several of these have bitten us so badly that we're due for luck.

[SCCWS]

Sorry to move away from the Mazara Love/Hate Soap Opera, but the Betts trade is on a temporary hold due to Graterol health questions. There may have to be a work -a-round. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Note that I did not say "There's no development left for Mazara", that's the phrase you made up. In the post you replied to I literally said "Even if it works out this time", I literally left open the possibility you said I ignored. 

Even if there is development left for Mazara, it's giving up the 6 years of control to get a "might get better" guy who we only control for 2 years is the mistake. Because that's what sets it up to bite us. Even if Mazara shows substantial development - he's more expensive next year and then gone. And even if Walker shows no development and this case works out well, the reward is limited because he has only 2 years of control.

That's how you do low reward, moderate risk moves. And yeah, the odds are that this one won't bite us in the tail, but that's because the last several of these have bitten us so badly that we're due for luck.

But that player you have 2 years of control of is 3 times better at the same age. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

The odds that Steele Walker has as many career plate appearances in the MLB as Mazara has had through his age 24 season is probably 10% or less.