Michael Kopech

[chitownsportsfan]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If service time were not a concern, I'd still be 50/50 about wanting him to break camp with the big league team and a lot would depend on what we saw from him in ST.

In 2018, he started off the year at Charlotte and he really wasn't ready - he had major control issues, topped off by a performance in mid June where he walked 8 batters in 3 innings. This wasn't just him working on something, it literally took him April, May, and June of that year for him to figure out how to control anything he was throwing. Once he figured something out, in early-July, he put together a run of 7 starts where he walked 4 people total the entire time. 

If he's throwing in the spring and his control is that pinpoint, then yes you can say he's "no doubt one of their 5 best SP". But we saw the same sort of control development for him in 2017 and 2018 both, where it takes him until May or June for him to find his control, then he would simply not be ready. So it's not just service time, it's not just the innings limit or protecting him physically, we have seen him need a long time to find control before and until we see him in games throughout March we don't know where  his control is this year.

It's a contention year.  For better or for worse the time to "work things out" at the MiLB level for guys like Kopech and Madrigal (to an extent) is over.  They obviously are planning Kopech playing a big role.  Ditto Madrigal.  If those guys don't set the league on fire in AAA they will be up regardless as soon as their respective service time deadlines pass.

As for Kopech, his FIP and shit is all out of whack from his 20% HR rate in the small MLB sample but his SIERRA (which most smart people like more than FIP or xFIP now) was 3.88 which suggests the underlying stuff was there.  And oh yea he probably made a couple starts with a frayed UCL.

There's nothing he can really gain other than some confidence in AAA.  That said, that isn't a bad thing.  But IMO there's no doubt that he's ready to continue his process at the MLB level right now, service time aside.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

It's a contention year.  For better or for worse the time to "work things out" at the MiLB level for guys like Kopech and Madrigal (to an extent) is over.  They obviously are planning Kopech playing a big role.  Ditto Madrigal.  If those guys don't set the league on fire in AAA they will be up regardless as soon as their respective service time deadlines pass.

As for Kopech, his FIP and shit is all out of whack from his 20% HR rate in the small MLB sample but his SIERRA (which most smart people like more than FIP or xFIP now) was 3.88 which suggests the underlying stuff was there.  And oh yea he probably made a couple starts with a frayed UCL.

There's nothing he can really gain other than some confidence in AAA.  That said, that isn't a bad thing.  But IMO there's no doubt that he's ready to continue his process at the MLB level right now, service time aside.

You're very much contradicting yourself here. If Kopech needs to work out his control, and he's going to do that in the big leagues, then this won't be a contention year. You can't have Kopech coming out and walking 5 people in the first 2 innings if you actually intend to contend, and he has a history of doing that in the first half of the season. If Kopech is walking the world and you call him up anyway, then you're not acting like a contending team, you're acting like the 2017 white sox when they called up Moncada because they had a roster spot open so why not.

For reference, I'm specifically not talking about his performance once he was called up. It's the stuff at Charlotte beforehand that should worry people. If his control is like it was in the 2nd half of 2017, then yeah he'll be a solid contributor when he's called up. 

[Jose Abreu]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

You're very much contradicting yourself here. If Kopech needs to work out his control, and he's going to do that in the big leagues, then this won't be a contention year. You can't have Kopech coming out and walking 5 people in the first 2 innings if you actually intend to contend, and he has a history of doing that in the first half of the season. If Kopech is walking the world and you call him up anyway, then you're not acting like a contending team, you're acting like the 2017 white sox when they called up Moncada because they had a roster spot open so why not.

I agree with your thoughts on Kopech but not sure I get your point on Moncada. He might not have been fully "ready" in 2017, but he posted a 105 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR (3.3 fWAR/162) over a third of a season. It's not like he was blocking anyone or playing poorly

[steveno89]

17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If service time were not a concern, I'd still be 50/50 about wanting him to break camp with the big league team and a lot would depend on what we saw from him in ST.

In 2018, he started off the year at Charlotte and he really wasn't ready - he had major control issues, topped off by a performance in mid June where he walked 8 batters in 3 innings. This wasn't just him working on something, it literally took him April, May, and June of that year for him to figure out how to control anything he was throwing. Once he figured something out, in early-July, he put together a run of 7 starts where he walked 4 people total the entire time. 

If he's throwing in the spring and his control is that pinpoint, then yes you can say he's "no doubt one of their 5 best SP". But we saw the same sort of control development for him in 2017 and 2018 both, where it takes him until May or June for him to find his control, then he would simply not be ready. So it's not just service time, it's not just the innings limit or protecting him physically, we have seen him need a long time to find control before and until we see him in games throughout March we don't know where  his control is this year.

Service time is one thing, but this I agree with^

I believe he will be healthy and ready to go, but a month or two in AAA can go a long way towards proving his control is where it needs to be for 2020. 

[chitownsportsfan]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You're very much contradicting yourself here. If Kopech needs to work out his control, and he's going to do that in the big leagues, then this won't be a contention year. You can't have Kopech coming out and walking 5 people in the first 2 innings if you actually intend to contend, and he has a history of doing that in the first half of the season. If Kopech is walking the world and you call him up anyway, then you're not acting like a contending team, you're acting like the 2017 white sox when they called up Moncada because they had a roster spot open so why not.

For reference, I'm specifically not talking about his performance once he was called up. It's the stuff at Charlotte beforehand that should worry people. If his control is like it was in the 2nd half of 2017, then yeah he'll be a solid contributor when he's called up. 

He needs to work on his control and ZIPS pegs him as their 4th best starter.  Both those things are true.  Maybe lack of SP makes this "not a contention year" in reality, but on paper they very much are intending to compete and that means Kopech will be working on his stuff at the MLB level as soon as April passes.

On a side note I'm not really thinking he needs to "knock a bunch of rust" off.  He has been throwing off a mound for months now.   He's getting a shitload of work in down in Arizona and reported to camp in great shape and 100% healthy full systems go.  He'll "knock off the rust" in AAA because well, if he doesn't they lose a year.  But it's not because it's more effective in his development necessarily.

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, mqr said:

I really think you're discounting the desire for taking his time to shake off rust and get confidence back before immediately  throwing him into the fire. Yes, he's healthy but he hasn't had to mentally prepare to face the best competition in over a year. It's not like he pitched in the majors for a year(or even a month) and then got hurt. 

The question was is he healthy and to start pitching in games. The answer is yes. Now as far as being effective, its going to take but he only has 5 MLB starts. He is going to be learning at the MLB level regardless of when he hits the MLB. He knocked of the rust of just pitching when he pitched in the Fall games.

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

The question was is he healthy and to start pitching in games. The answer is yes. Now as far as being effective, its going to take but he only has 5 MLB starts. He is going to be learning at the MLB level regardless of when he hits the MLB. He knocked of the rust of just pitching when he pitched in the Fall games.

Bingo.

[ptatc]

31 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You're very much contradicting yourself here. If Kopech needs to work out his control, and he's going to do that in the big leagues, then this won't be a contention year. You can't have Kopech coming out and walking 5 people in the first 2 innings if you actually intend to contend, and he has a history of doing that in the first half of the season. If Kopech is walking the world and you call him up anyway, then you're not acting like a contending team, you're acting like the 2017 white sox when they called up Moncada because they had a roster spot open so why not.

For reference, I'm specifically not talking about his performance once he was called up. It's the stuff at Charlotte beforehand that should worry people. If his control is like it was in the 2nd half of 2017, then yeah he'll be a solid contributor when he's called up. 

This has to be done at the MLB level. MiLB hitters aren't the same as the MLB. He can get away with stuff in the MiLB that he can't in the MLB. He needs to learn to pitch to MLB hitters which can only be done in the MLB. That's why the injury was so bad for the team. He could have learned to pitch to MLB hitters in a season that really didn't matter. Now he needs to do it in a season that does matter.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

This has to be done at the MLB level. MiLB hitters aren't the same as the MLB. He can get away with stuff in the MiLB that he can't in the MLB. He needs to learn to pitch to MLB hitters which can only be done in the MLB. That's why the injury was so bad for the team. He could have learned to pitch to MLB hitters in a season that really didn't matter. Now he needs to do it in a season that does matter.

If he's walking 5 MILB hitters in 5 innings as he was doing in the first half of 2018, would he benefit more from walking 9 big league hitters in 5 innings?

[black jack]

It doesn’t matter if he’s a top five starter in the organization.  He’s going to be on a innings limit and needs to be available in September.  He needs to be down to start the season regardless of service time. 

[ChiSox59]

8 minutes ago, black jack said:

It doesn’t matter if he’s a top five starter in the organization.  He’s going to be on a innings limit and needs to be available in September.  He needs to be down to start the season regardless of service time. 

This.  Getting an extra year is just icing on the cake.  We need Kopech pitching in August and September in the big leagues.  Not sitting on the bench because he reached his innings limit in July.  

[chitownsportsfan]

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

This.  Getting an extra year is just icing on the cake.  We need Kopech pitching in August and September in the big leagues.  Not sitting on the bench because he reached his innings limit in July.  

do the games count less in April?

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

do the games count less in April?

If you're in contention, yes the games in August and September have added importance.  Obviously each win counts the same.  Kopech isn't breaking camp with the Sox, man.  Time to come to grips with it.  

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

If you're in contention, yes the games in August and September have added importance.  Obviously each win counts the same.  Kopech isn't breaking camp with the Sox, man.  Time to come to grips with it.  

I'm fine with it, I'm just not in agreement about the "reasons", real or imagined, he's down there.

[Boopa1219]

I wouldn’t be mad if the Sox kept Kopech down till May to get back the year of control that they lost due to his TJ. 

[Harry Chappas]

My guess is the weather and schedule is more to do with it than anything.  You can control pitches and innings more in AAA than in the MLB.

I would also guess that pitching in 28 degree weather is not the best thing in the world.  8 starts in a controlled environment and the Sox get the extra year.  

[ptatc]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

If he's walking 5 MILB hitters in 5 innings as he was doing in the first half of 2018, would he benefit more from walking 9 big league hitters in 5 innings?

It the only way to learn not to. If he doesn't learn it, he will be gone. He can't learn it in the MiLB, so yes the only way to learn would be to walk 9 in a game and figure out what he is doing wrong and try to make the appropriate adjustments.

[ptatc]

2 hours ago, Harry Chappas said:

My guess is the weather and schedule is more to do with it than anything.  You can control pitches and innings more in AAA than in the MLB.

I would also guess that pitching in 28 degree weather is not the best thing in the world.  8 starts in a controlled environment and the Sox get the extra year.  

It much easier to piggyback each of his starts in the MiLB than the MLB. However, it's just going to delay his learning at the MLB level. He only has 5 MLB starts so he is going to have rookie growing pains whenever he starts in the MLB this season.

Edited February 18, 2020 by ptatc

[gusguyman]

Why is everyone asserting he can't learn control in the minors?

Sure, he won't be punished for mistakes near as much. But the reason Kopech went from a pipe-dream to a top 25 prospect is because in the 2nd half of 2018, he suddenly learned control..... in the minors. 

I agree there is a limit to what he can improve upon there, but if he needs to knock off game rust and get back into the 5-day routine, it is much safer to do that in an environment where winning is much less important. (Which is why actual MLB pitchers also have rehab stints in the minors)

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

23 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

Why is everyone asserting he can't learn control in the minors?

Sure, he won't be punished for mistakes near as much. But the reason Kopech went from a pipe-dream to a top 25 prospect is because in the 2nd half of 2018, he suddenly learned control..... in the minors. 

I agree there is a limit to what he can improve upon there, but if he needs to knock off game rust and get back into the 5-day routine, it is much safer to do that in an environment where winning is much less important. (Which is why actual MLB pitchers also have rehab stints in the minors)

At no point in time did anyone ever, anywhere think Kopech was a pipe dream lol

[ptatc]

3 hours ago, gusguyman said:

Why is everyone asserting he can't learn control in the minors?

Sure, he won't be punished for mistakes near as much. But the reason Kopech went from a pipe-dream to a top 25 prospect is because in the 2nd half of 2018, he suddenly learned control..... in the minors. 

I agree there is a limit to what he can improve upon there, but if he needs to knock off game rust and get back into the 5-day routine, it is much safer to do that in an environment where winning is much less important. (Which is why actual MLB pitchers also have rehab stints in the minors)

Because there is a learning curve in the MLB against MLB hitters. He can learn some about control but not enough. It's not about mistakes getting crushed. It more about what pitches the MiLB hitters swing at that MLB hitters dont. 

[Cashman]

18 hours ago, ptatc said:

Because there is a learning curve in the MLB against MLB hitters. He can learn some about control but not enough. It's not about mistakes getting crushed. It more about what pitches the MiLB hitters swing at that MLB hitters dont. 

Have you seen him pitch live in the minors?

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, Cashman said:

Have you seen him pitch live in the minors?

Yes. I saw him pitch at Birmingham once.

Not sure what that has to do with the learning at the MLB level. This isn't isolated to Kopech. All MiLB pitchers needs to learn how to pitch to MLB hitters. Just as all MiLB hitters need to learn MLB pitching. There is a learning curve going from the minors to the MLB. That's why most struggle early on. Some handle it better than others.

[Cashman]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

Yes. I saw him pitch at Birmingham once.

Not sure what that has to do with the learning at the MLB level. This isn't isolated to Kopech. All MiLB pitchers needs to learn how to pitch to MLB hitters. Just as all MiLB hitters need to learn MLB pitching. There is a learning curve going from the minors to the MLB. That's why most struggle early on. Some handle it better than others.

I saw him at the start of 2018, pitch in Indy at AAA. He looked pretty bored on the mound. I think it would be a huge step back, keeping him in the minors more than the control of the 1yr they get back. He needs to be challenged.

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, Cashman said:

I saw him at the start of 2018, pitch in Indy at AAA. He looked pretty bored on the mound. I think it would be a huge step back, keeping him in the minors more than the control of the 1yr they get back. He needs to be challenged.

I agree. It's the challenge of the better competition. However, I do understand gaining the year of control and needing to limit the innings.