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Keith Law's Top 100 for 2020


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3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I'm not. It really doesnt matter to me.  I'm just saying it's his job so you just discounting people valuing an expert's opinion is a little over the top. But maybe you do have a better handle on it than them.

Valuing his opinion? Is that what’s happening?

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6 minutes ago, bmags said:

Valuing his opinion? Is that what’s happening?

I thought that's what people were doing. They were freaking out because of what he's said about certain prospects. That would mean they value his opinion enough to rail against it.

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8 hours ago, mqr said:

I bet less than 30% of the current top 100 will be meaningfully better than David Eckstein. 

Assuredly.  That's how many will end up.
But that's not their potential.   Oh maybe that's the potential for a few in the back half, but teams don't use top 10 picks in the hopes of finding an Eckstein level player.  That's the consolation prize....the steak knives.


 

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13 hours ago, GreenSox said:

Assuredly.  That's how many will end up.
But that's not their potential.   Oh maybe that's the potential for a few in the back half, but teams don't use top 10 picks in the hopes of finding an Eckstein level player.  That's the consolation prize....the steak knives.


 

It amazes me how much people overrate first round picks in baseball; especially outside of 1-2. 

If Madrigal gets to 20 career fWAR, he'll be one of the best #4 picks in MLB history. Here is a list of #4 picks in history; only including those who have been around enough to calculate their worth: 1989 stands out, ha! 15% of #4 picks since 1980 have accumulated 15+ fWAR for their career. 

 

I bolded people with greater than 15 career fWAR.

Schwarber - 2014

Dillon Tate - 2015 (18th ranked Orioles prospect 2019)

Riley Pint - 2016 (8.66 ERA in A ball)

Brandan McKay - 2017 (good so far)

 

Year Player Pos. Drafted From Drafted By
2013 Kohl Stewart RHP St. Pius X HS (TX) Minnesota Twins
2012 Kevin Gausman RHP LSU Baltimore Orioles
2011 Dylan Bundy RHP Owasso HS (OK) Baltimore Orioles
2010 Christian Colon SS Cal-State Fullerton Kansas City Royals
2009 Jorge Sanchez C Boston College Pittsburgh Pirates
2008 Brian Matusz LHP University of San Diego Baltimore Orioles
2007 Daniel Moskos LHP Clemson Pittsburgh Pirates
2006 Brad Lincoln RHP Houston Pittsburgh Pirates
2005 Ryan Zimmerman 3B Virginia Washington Nationals
2004 Jeffrey Niemann RHP Rice U (TX) Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2003 Timothy Stauffer RHP U Richmond (VA) San Diego Padres
2002 Adam Loewen P Fraser Valley Christian HS (BC) Baltimore Orioles
2001 Gavin Floyd P Mt. St. Joseph HS (MD) Philadelphia Phillies
2000 Mike Stodolka P Centennial HS (CA ) Kansas City Royals
1999 Corey Myers SS Desert Vista,HS (AZ) Arizona Diamondbacks
1998 Jeff Austin P Stanford University Kansas City Royals
1997 Jason Grilli P Seton Hall University San Francisco Giants
1996 Billy Koch P Clemson University Toronto Blue Jays
1995 Kerry Wood P Grand Prairie HS (TX) Chicago Cubs
1994 Antone Williamson 3B Arizona State University Milwaukee Brewers
1993 Wayne Gomes P Old Dominion University Philadelphia Phillies
1992 Jeffrey Hammonds OF Stanford University Baltimore Orioles
1991 Dmitri Young SS-OF Rio Mesa HS (CA) St. Louis Cardinals
1990 Alex Fernandez P Miami Dade South CC Chicago White Sox
1989 Jeff Jackson OF Simeon HS (IL) Philadelphia Phillies
1988 Gregg Olson P Auburn University Baltimore Orioles
1987 Mike Harkey P Cal State Fullerton University Chicago Cubs
1986 Kevin Brown P Georgia Tech Texas Rangers
1985 Barry Larkin SS University of Michigan Cincinnati Reds
1984 Cory Snyder SS Brigham Young University Cleveland Indians
1983 Eddie Williams 3B Hoover HS (CA) New York Mets
1982 Bryan Oelkers P Wichita State University Minnesota Twins
1981 Terry Blocker OF Tennessee State University New York Mets
1980 Mike King P Morningside College Oakland A's
Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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11 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

I just felt that as the only White Sox fan that actually liked Gavin Floyd that I was honor bound to say something.

I liked Gavin; think he could have been better than he was, but he let the game get in his head a bit too much. Gavin would have been a guy who benefited greatly from modern tech to analyze his release point and etc. I feel like he lost his feel far too often and was searching for it more than he actually had it. When he had it though, he was absolutely filthy.

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For the record, this is exactly why I think Keith Law saying he's David Eckstein and then not putting him in his top 109 is a joke. If he even has Eckstein's career, he is certainly worthy of a top 109 prospect spot. Baseball is really really hard and drafting/developing is really difficult. The learning curve between aluminum and wood alone is substantial, and even with guys playing in wood bat leagues it's still not the same. That paired with the fact that in college you will face a MLB caliber starter maybe twice or three times a month on average, and knowing how a guy will perform against that level of talent all the time is nearly impossible. It's why a guy like Vaughn just couldn't be passed on despite him being pigeonholed at 1st base; his approach and swing were made for velocity and he spits on pitches that MLB veterans don't. 

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I don't think it's that he is saying "he's david eckstein and david eckstein isn't that valuable" as much as "the only recent player who has succeeded with that profile is david eckstein" which makes madrigal actually more risky than many would admit.

Madrigal really needs to keep his walk rate where it is though. He really needs that .350 obp

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5 hours ago, bmags said:

I don't think it's that he is saying "he's david eckstein and david eckstein isn't that valuable" as much as "the only recent player who has succeeded with that profile is david eckstein" which makes madrigal actually more risky than many would admit.

Madrigal really needs to keep his walk rate where it is though. He really needs that .350 obp

Comparing Madrigal to other players is tough cause theres not a huge sample size. Projected to hit .300 with .350 OBP, K rate of 6%, fast, stellar defense with amazing bat control. Only a handful of guys have those tools ever and those players are all very different.

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Just listened to Law's podcast with Logenhagen and they discussed Madrigal for several minutes.

 

Logenhagen: "I think there is an argument that I especially have over-corrected on this type of player."

Logenhagen: "He is not a 70 runner but the run times are often 70's."

Law: "He has a very little ceiling. There is very little chance for this player to become a star."

Law: "A player like that basically has to hit .320 to be valuable and the number of guys in the last 10 seasons who have hit .320 or better in the majors with an iso of under .100 which Madrigal is clearly going to do at this point is 1.  Dee Gordan who is an 80 runner."

Law: "if you can't make hard contact it's hard to hit over .300."

Law: "if he were a SS if he were a CF, if he were a catcher if he were an 80 runner those would be considerations in his favor."

Law: "I favor upside on my list."

 

 

 

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On 2/25/2020 at 8:40 AM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It amazes me how much people overrate first round picks in baseball; especially outside of 1-2. 

If Madrigal gets to 20 career fWAR, he'll be one of the best #4 picks in MLB history. Here is a list of #4 picks in history; only including those who have been around enough to calculate their worth: 1989 stands out, ha! 15% of #4 picks since 1980 have accumulated 15+ fWAR for their career. 

And I just scanned the #5 picks over the same period and I see Matt Williams, Dwight Gooden, Jack McDowell, Vernon Wells, JD Drew, Mark Texeira, Ryan Braun, Buster Posey.    So there's some coincidence/sample size involved.
The draft is difficult.  But that and international signings are the two major sources for young players.  The third source, and most efficient, is trading  for other teams prospects....you should get a more consistent return because they are more developed.
 

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16 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

And I just scanned the #5 picks over the same period and I see Matt Williams, Dwight Gooden, Jack McDowell, Vernon Wells, JD Drew, Mark Texeira, Ryan Braun, Buster Posey.    So there's some coincidence/sample size involved.
The draft is difficult.  But that and international signings are the two major sources for young players.  The third source, and most efficient, is trading  for other teams prospects....you should get a more consistent return because they are more developed.
 

You're still only at 8 players out of a 40 year period. I get your point, that it varies slot to slot for sure, but the expectation shouldn't be an impact player is guaranteed because you had the 4th or 5th pick.

I think I have the draft data exported into my information at home; I'll see if I can run an average fWAR output for each draft slot since 1980. It's a fun exercise. 

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3 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Law: "if you can't make hard contact it's hard to hit over .300."

One good counter I've heard for this is David Fletcher's 2019. He was literally one of the worst in MLB when it came to hard contact rate/exit velocity, but hit .290 with a .302 xBA. Like Madrigal, he is fast, but not elite as a runner. Hopefully Madrigal has similar production

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23 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Does anyone know if madrigal tried to add a couple pounds this off season? He doesn't have the frame to carry that much extra weight well but 10-15 pounds more than last season would probably help him.

He did add muscle this offseason. Not sure how much, but it was noticeable. 

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top 20 had good writeups including placing Beard, Ramos, Rodriguez and Gladney in top 20 (and keeping Bush there). He put Thompson as his sleeper if he can regain his pre senior HS days.

Stiever was ranked above Madrigal, sees him as possible MLB callup from AA.

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