Keith Law's Top 100 for 2020

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52 minutes ago, bmags said:

top 20 had good writeups including placing Beard, Ramos, Rodriguez and Gladney in top 20 (and keeping Bush there). He put Thompson as his sleeper if he can regain his pre senior HS days.

Stiever was ranked above Madrigal, sees him as possible MLB callup from AA.

The Stiever thing was hilarious to me; I love Stiever and was as high on him as anyone, but putting him above Madrigal because of last season is pretty funny. 

Agree with him on Gladney though; Keith and I the high guys on DJ! Beard belongs no where near the top 20 right now, imo. Speed and speed alone isn't enough, and his contact skills were horrendous. I get that he is coming from a small baseball conference with inferior competition for high school, but his debut didn't exactly give me a lot of reasons to believe he's close. Doesn't mean he can't get there, but it's hard to maximize speed if you don't make contact. 

Edited February 27, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Harold's Leg Lift]

21 minutes ago, PolishPrince34 said:

He had Kevin Newman on his Top 100 twice. He was always the high man on Newman.

He said he wasn't on it the last two years he was eligible.  

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18 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

His name was brought up along with Kolten Wong and Kevin Newman none of whom ever made his top 100.  Solid players but not stars.  There is a method to the madness.  

You crack me up with this stuff; everyone on the top 100 prospects list isn't a "potential star" even though you continue to state that as a basis of analysis. 

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Laws write-up on Madrigal just adds to the brigade; he views him as a long-time big leaguer but he's not a top 100 prospect. All in all, probably far too much attention on this but I find that analysis to be bizarre. 

[ChiSoxFanMike]

On 2/27/2020 at 10:10 AM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The Stiever thing was hilarious to me; I love Stiever and was as high on him as anyone, but putting him above Madrigal because of last season is pretty funny. 

Agree with him on Gladney though; Keith and I the high guys on DJ! Beard belongs no where near the top 20 right now, imo. Speed and speed alone isn't enough, and his contact skills were horrendous. I get that he is coming from a small baseball conference with inferior competition for high school, but his debut didn't exactly give me a lot of reasons to believe he's close. Doesn't mean he can't get there, but it's hard to maximize speed if you don't make contact. 

Beard is going to be our version of Terrance Gore over the next few years.

[bmags]

22 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Beard is going to be our version of Terrance Gore over the next few years.

Maybe. He kept getting thrown out in AZL.

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3 minutes ago, bmags said:

Maybe. He kept getting thrown out in AZL.

I mean, he ran A LOT. 

He was only on 1st base 28 times the entire year haha, and he stole 9 bases and was caught 3 times. He was basically running 42+% of the time he reached first base. To put that in perspective, Dee Gordon was on 1st base 205 times the year he stole 60 bases and was caught 16 times. So he was running roughly 37% of the time.

Obviously James is in the AZL so it's not the same, but running 42% of the time and having a conversion rate of 75% isn't bad for a kid with very limited high level coaching and competition. 

[Vulture]

The key point Law made here, "if you can't make hard contact, it's hard to hit .300." If Madrigal doesn't hit .300+, he's not much different than Yolmer, a guy actually capable of hard contact that still struggled to do any better than .650 ops.

It appears they have added quite a bit of lengh to Madrigal's stride at the plate since his college days, which looks almost absurd actually, presumably to help generate more power in his swing. To me that says something about concerns to this effect. It's not like he needs homerun power, but he should be able to drive the ball from line to line, and I don't see that from him. To me, he's got bust written all over him, but I guess we'll see. Obviously his ability to get the bat on the ball is impressive, and I still want to see him get the chance to prove me wrong, but I'm not pencilling him as a no doubter like Robert or Jimenez. No way I'd consider him for any kind of extension and hope the Sox have a plan B for 2b.

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12 minutes ago, PantsRowland said:

The key point Law made here, "if you can't make hard contact, it's hard to hit .300." If Madrigal doesn't hit .300+, he's not much different than Yolmer, a guy actually capable of hard contact that still struggled to do any better than .650 ops.

It appears they have added quite a bit of lengh to Madrigal's stride at the plate since his college days, which looks almost absurd actually, presumably to help generate more power in his swing. To me that says something about concerns to this effect. It's not like he needs homerun power, but he should be able to drive the ball from line to line, and I don't see that from him. To me, he's got bust written all over him, but I guess we'll see. Obviously his ability to get the bat on the ball is impressive, and I still want to see him get the chance to prove me wrong, but I'm not pencilling him as a no doubter like Robert or Jimenez. No way I'd consider him for any kind of extension and hope the Sox have a plan B for 2b.

You compared a guy who strikes out 21% of his AB's to a guy who strikes out 3.7% of the time. Yolmer strikes out 5+ times as often and puts way less balls in play. They are really nothing alike. Madrigal has also walked more than Yolmer. If Yolmer put the ball in play as often he would have hit 300+

Edited February 28, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, PantsRowland said:

The key point Law made here, "if you can't make hard contact, it's hard to hit .300." If Madrigal doesn't hit .300+, he's not much different than Yolmer, a guy actually capable of hard contact that still struggled to do any better than .650 ops.

It appears they have added quite a bit of lengh to Madrigal's stride at the plate since his college days, which looks almost absurd actually, presumably to help generate more power in his swing. To me that says something about concerns to this effect. It's not like he needs homerun power, but he should be able to drive the ball from line to line, and I don't see that from him. To me, he's got bust written all over him, but I guess we'll see. Obviously his ability to get the bat on the ball is impressive, and I still want to see him get the chance to prove me wrong, but I'm not pencilling him as a no doubter like Robert or Jimenez. No way I'd consider him for any kind of extension and hope the Sox have a plan B for 2b.

This just isn't true. Yolmer struck out in nearly 25% of his at bats last year. If you drop that to 5% (close enough to Madrigal's range and I'm using round numbers) that comes to an extra 30 hits per year. Without changing anything else in Yolmer's contact profile, if all he did was strike out 5% of the time rather than 25% of the time, he would have hit .311 last year. 

[Vulture]

Yeah but Yolmer was actually capable of driving the ball. If Madrigal doesn't hit .300, the net effect will be the same. A very good glove, a pretty good baserunner and a low obp/very low slugging second baseman. Obviously if he is a .300+ hitter he'll be more effective than Yolmer, but I said if he doesn't then he won't be much different in the post you responded to. Simply making contact  doesn't make a good hitter if you struggle to get the ball out of the infield, see Ozzie Guillen. 

[Vulture]

20 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You compared a guy who strikes out 21% of his AB's to a guy who strikes out 3.7% of the time. Yolmer strikes out 5+ times as often and puts way less balls in play. They are really nothing alike. Madrigal has also walked more than Yolmer. If Yolmer put the ball in play as often he would have hit 300+

Presumably if you made contact with a pitch that struck you out, the contact generally wouldn't be of the caliber of those pitches you are driving for base hits, so I'm not sure that reasoning holds true.

[TomPickle]

Yolmer "Drives the Ball" Sanchez had the lowest ISO among qualified hitters in baseball last season by nearly 30 points. 12 pitchers (min 50 PA) had higher ISO than Yolmer last year. It's fine if you are low on Madrigal, but obviously if he has less power than the worst power hitter in baseball his career isn't going to be anything special.

[Vulture]

Exactly my point Pickle

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3 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Yolmer "Drives the Ball" Sanchez had the lowest ISO among qualified hitters in baseball last season by nearly 30 points. 12 pitchers (min 50 PA) had higher ISO than Yolmer last year. It's fine if you are low on Madrigal, but obviously if he has less power than the worst power hitter in baseball his career isn't going to be anything special.

And Madrigal's rookie year ISO is projected to be 20 points higher than Yolmer's was last year. His MiLB iso number was 32 points higher.

Edited February 28, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

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16 minutes ago, PantsRowland said:

Presumably if you made contact with a pitch that struck you out, the contact generally wouldn't be of the caliber of those pitches you are driving for base hits, so I'm not sure that reasoning holds true.

Now you are assuming Madrigal makes contact on the pitches that struck Yolmer out.

In addition, there is no correlation between .iso and BABIP.

Madrigal's projected BABIP sits between 282-295. His MiLB BABIP was 312 last year. Madrigal hits so few homers, and strikes out so little, that his BABIP will be nearly identical to his batting average. So if you think Madrigal is going to hit 260-270, you are of the belief that he is going to run BABIP numbers around the same area as guys who have had their BABIP's zapped by shifting/being dead pull hitters.

Edited February 28, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[TomPickle]

4 minutes ago, PantsRowland said:

Exactly my point Pickle

My point is that it is absurd to say that Yolmer drives the ball compared to anyone. If you want a mid level outcome for Madrigal look to Marco Scutaro instead of Yolmer.

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2 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

My point is that it is absurd to say that Yolmer drives the ball compared to anyone. If you want a mid level outcome for Madrigal look to Marco Scutaro instead of Yolmer.

Yeah, and even Scutaro would have been around a .293 career hitter if he struck out only 3.7% of the time; instead he was .277.

[Vulture]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Now you are assuming Madrigal makes contact on the pitches that struck Yolmer out.

In addition, there is no correlation between .iso and BABIP.

Madrigal's projected BABIP sits between 282-295. His MiLB BABIP was 312 last year. Madrigal hits so few homers, and strikes out so little, that his BABIP will be nearly identical to his batting average. So if you think Madrigal is going to hit 260-270, you are of the belief that he is going to run BABIP numbers around the same area as guys who have had their BABIP's zapped by shifting/being dead pull hitters.

No I'm not. You said if Yolmer made contact at same rate as Madrigal he would have hit those pitches at same BABIP as he had on pitches he hit for base hits, resulting in a .300+ average. I disagree, presumably Yolmer's BABIP would be much lower on those pitches that were good enough to strike him out compared to those with which he made contact.

never said there was a correlation with iso, never even mentioned it. There is a correlation between babip and well hit balls though. Those guys being shifted against are able to make hard contact.

[Vulture]

12 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

My point is that it is absurd to say that Yolmer drives the ball compared to anyone. If you want a mid level outcome for Madrigal look to Marco Scutaro instead of Yolmer.

Compared to anyone except Madrigal and a few others like Billy Hamilton. I don't think you understand how softly the ball comes off Madrigal's bat. Sanchez can make hard contact if he connects, the problem is he is overmatched. Madrigal isn't capable of hard contact by mlb standards

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8 minutes ago, PantsRowland said:

No I'm not. You said if Yolmer made contact at same rate as Madrigal he would have hit those pitches at same BABIP as he had on pitches he hit for base hits, resulting in a .300+ average. I disagree, presumably Yolmer's BABIP would be much lower on those pitches that were good enough to strike him out compared to those with which he made contact.

never said there was a correlation with iso, never even mentioned it. There is a correlation between babip and well hit balls though. Those guys being shifted against are able to make hard contact.

This is just not true.

Things that force BABIP below the league average .300 rate is: being ground ball pull heavy and an extremely high fly ball rate. There is no correlation between iso and BABIP. If you put a ball in play, spray to all fields, have a league average GB/FB rate and do nothing else you're BABIP is going to come in around 290-300. 

Quality of contact plays a very small part in ones BABIP.

There is also no correlation between hard hit rate and BABIP on it's own. 

For Madrigal to run BABIP's in the 260-270 range, he would have to be unlucky given his batted ball profile. 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

In addition, Yolmer Sanchez BABIP would not be "much lower" if he put the balls in play that he swung and missed on. I'm not sure where you got that idea.

Yolmer Sanchez, despite hitting the ball nearly softer than everyone in baseball last year had a .324 BABIP - the best year of his career despite having the lowest EV and etc of his career. 

[Vulture]

Iso is a stat that separates extra base hits, doesn't correlate to what I'm saying.

 

here's a stat line for you from Ozzie Guillen:

4.9% strike out rate .245/.275/.337. 

So yes it is possible to make contact and produce very poorly due to poor contact. That's about .050 ops points lower than Sanchez. Accoring to your logic he should have been a .300 hitter

[Vulture]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

In addition, Yolmer Sanchez BABIP would not be "much lower" if he put the balls in play that he swung and missed on. I'm not sure where you got that idea.

Yolmer Sanchez, despite hitting the ball nearly softer than everyone in baseball last year had a .324 BABIP - the best year of his career despite having the lowest EV and etc of his career. 

It's quite simple. Hitters get base hits at a higher rate on pitches they can handle and make outs on pitches they can't handle at a much higher rate. Pitches a batter can't handle result in strikes or poor contact. This should be obvious.

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11 minutes ago, PantsRowland said:

Iso is a stat that separates extra base hits, doesn't correlate to what I'm saying.

 

here's a stat line for you from Ozzie Guillen:

4.9% strike out rate .245/.275/.337. 

So yes it is possible to make contact and produce very poorly due to poor contact. That's about .050 ops points lower than Sanchez. Accoring to your logic he should have been a .300 hitter

Ozzie Guillen ran a 280 BABIP for his career; lower than league average, but not some albatross, and there's literally zero batted ball data on Guillen so I can't analyze the driving factors behind that number but it wasn't quality of contact driven.

Picking one year is very disingenuous: Guillen also had a year with a 3.6% walk rate and a .312 BABIP.

I'm not sure what I'm not explaining, but quality of contact plays a very very small part of what an expected BABIP is. I'm talking about less than .02 to the number. So 290 compared to 292. 

Nick Madrigal will not run a 260-270 career BABIP, and if his contact rate holds steady that means he'll likely hit better than 280 for his career with a ceiling north of 300.

Edited February 28, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run