bmags Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, ptatc said: I'm not. It really doesnt matter to me. I'm just saying it's his job so you just discounting people valuing an expert's opinion is a little over the top. But maybe you do have a better handle on it than them. Valuing his opinion? Is that what’s happening? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, bmags said: Valuing his opinion? Is that what’s happening? I thought that's what people were doing. They were freaking out because of what he's said about certain prospects. That would mean they value his opinion enough to rail against it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Keith Law... Don't get me started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 8 hours ago, mqr said: I bet less than 30% of the current top 100 will be meaningfully better than David Eckstein. Assuredly. That's how many will end up. But that's not their potential. Oh maybe that's the potential for a few in the back half, but teams don't use top 10 picks in the hopes of finding an Eckstein level player. That's the consolation prize....the steak knives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxfest Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Sorry Keith don’t agree with you on NIck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) 13 hours ago, GreenSox said: Assuredly. That's how many will end up. But that's not their potential. Oh maybe that's the potential for a few in the back half, but teams don't use top 10 picks in the hopes of finding an Eckstein level player. That's the consolation prize....the steak knives. It amazes me how much people overrate first round picks in baseball; especially outside of 1-2. If Madrigal gets to 20 career fWAR, he'll be one of the best #4 picks in MLB history. Here is a list of #4 picks in history; only including those who have been around enough to calculate their worth: 1989 stands out, ha! 15% of #4 picks since 1980 have accumulated 15+ fWAR for their career. I bolded people with greater than 15 career fWAR. Schwarber - 2014 Dillon Tate - 2015 (18th ranked Orioles prospect 2019) Riley Pint - 2016 (8.66 ERA in A ball) Brandan McKay - 2017 (good so far) Year Player Pos. Drafted From Drafted By 2013 Kohl Stewart RHP St. Pius X HS (TX) Minnesota Twins 2012 Kevin Gausman RHP LSU Baltimore Orioles 2011 Dylan Bundy RHP Owasso HS (OK) Baltimore Orioles 2010 Christian Colon SS Cal-State Fullerton Kansas City Royals 2009 Jorge Sanchez C Boston College Pittsburgh Pirates 2008 Brian Matusz LHP University of San Diego Baltimore Orioles 2007 Daniel Moskos LHP Clemson Pittsburgh Pirates 2006 Brad Lincoln RHP Houston Pittsburgh Pirates 2005 Ryan Zimmerman 3B Virginia Washington Nationals 2004 Jeffrey Niemann RHP Rice U (TX) Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2003 Timothy Stauffer RHP U Richmond (VA) San Diego Padres 2002 Adam Loewen P Fraser Valley Christian HS (BC) Baltimore Orioles 2001 Gavin Floyd P Mt. St. Joseph HS (MD) Philadelphia Phillies 2000 Mike Stodolka P Centennial HS (CAÂ ) Kansas City Royals 1999 Corey Myers SS Desert Vista,HS (AZ) Arizona Diamondbacks 1998 Jeff Austin P Stanford University Kansas City Royals 1997 Jason Grilli P Seton Hall University San Francisco Giants 1996 Billy Koch P Clemson University Toronto Blue Jays 1995 Kerry Wood P Grand Prairie HS (TX) Chicago Cubs 1994 Antone Williamson 3B Arizona State University Milwaukee Brewers 1993 Wayne Gomes P Old Dominion University Philadelphia Phillies 1992 Jeffrey Hammonds OF Stanford University Baltimore Orioles 1991 Dmitri Young SS-OF Rio Mesa HS (CA) St. Louis Cardinals 1990 Alex Fernandez P Miami Dade South CC Chicago White Sox 1989 Jeff Jackson OF Simeon HS (IL) Philadelphia Phillies 1988 Gregg Olson P Auburn University Baltimore Orioles 1987 Mike Harkey P Cal State Fullerton University Chicago Cubs 1986 Kevin Brown P Georgia Tech Texas Rangers 1985 Barry Larkin SS University of Michigan Cincinnati Reds 1984 Cory Snyder SS Brigham Young University Cleveland Indians 1983 Eddie Williams 3B Hoover HS (CA) New York Mets 1982 Bryan Oelkers P Wichita State University Minnesota Twins 1981 Terry Blocker OF Tennessee State University New York Mets 1980 Mike King P Morningside College Oakland A's Edited February 25, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomPickle Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Gavin Floyd has more than 15 WAR by both bWAR and fWAR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, TomPickle said: Gavin Floyd has more than 15 WAR by both bWAR and fWAR. Correct, he has 16; I think I searched for 20 first due to my first sentence. Will correct. Think the point still remains. Edited February 25, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomPickle Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 I just felt that as the only White Sox fan that actually liked Gavin Floyd that I was honor bound to say something. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 11 minutes ago, TomPickle said: I just felt that as the only White Sox fan that actually liked Gavin Floyd that I was honor bound to say something. I liked Gavin; think he could have been better than he was, but he let the game get in his head a bit too much. Gavin would have been a guy who benefited greatly from modern tech to analyze his release point and etc. I feel like he lost his feel far too often and was searching for it more than he actually had it. When he had it though, he was absolutely filthy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 For the record, this is exactly why I think Keith Law saying he's David Eckstein and then not putting him in his top 109 is a joke. If he even has Eckstein's career, he is certainly worthy of a top 109 prospect spot. Baseball is really really hard and drafting/developing is really difficult. The learning curve between aluminum and wood alone is substantial, and even with guys playing in wood bat leagues it's still not the same. That paired with the fact that in college you will face a MLB caliber starter maybe twice or three times a month on average, and knowing how a guy will perform against that level of talent all the time is nearly impossible. It's why a guy like Vaughn just couldn't be passed on despite him being pigeonholed at 1st base; his approach and swing were made for velocity and he spits on pitches that MLB veterans don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 I don't think it's that he is saying "he's david eckstein and david eckstein isn't that valuable" as much as "the only recent player who has succeeded with that profile is david eckstein" which makes madrigal actually more risky than many would admit. Madrigal really needs to keep his walk rate where it is though. He really needs that .350 obp 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstar Lamar Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 why would anyone care about an analysis of a guy you will be able to analyze on your own in a few short months? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotHahn Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 5 hours ago, bmags said: I don't think it's that he is saying "he's david eckstein and david eckstein isn't that valuable" as much as "the only recent player who has succeeded with that profile is david eckstein" which makes madrigal actually more risky than many would admit. Madrigal really needs to keep his walk rate where it is though. He really needs that .350 obp Comparing Madrigal to other players is tough cause theres not a huge sample size. Projected to hit .300 with .350 OBP, K rate of 6%, fast, stellar defense with amazing bat control. Only a handful of guys have those tools ever and those players are all very different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnin' two Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Wow. Legitimately surprised Dmitri Young didn't get there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold's Leg Lift Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Just listened to Law's podcast with Logenhagen and they discussed Madrigal for several minutes. Logenhagen: "I think there is an argument that I especially have over-corrected on this type of player." Logenhagen: "He is not a 70 runner but the run times are often 70's." Law: "He has a very little ceiling. There is very little chance for this player to become a star." Law: "A player like that basically has to hit .320 to be valuable and the number of guys in the last 10 seasons who have hit .320 or better in the majors with an iso of under .100 which Madrigal is clearly going to do at this point is 1. Dee Gordan who is an 80 runner." Law: "if you can't make hard contact it's hard to hit over .300." Law: "if he were a SS if he were a CF, if he were a catcher if he were an 80 runner those would be considerations in his favor." Law: "I favor upside on my list." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaylorStSox Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 There's just too much good info out there these days to give a shit what Law has to say. Yes, I clicked on the thread anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 8:40 AM, Look at Ray Ray Run said: It amazes me how much people overrate first round picks in baseball; especially outside of 1-2. If Madrigal gets to 20 career fWAR, he'll be one of the best #4 picks in MLB history. Here is a list of #4 picks in history; only including those who have been around enough to calculate their worth: 1989 stands out, ha! 15% of #4 picks since 1980 have accumulated 15+ fWAR for their career. And I just scanned the #5 picks over the same period and I see Matt Williams, Dwight Gooden, Jack McDowell, Vernon Wells, JD Drew, Mark Texeira, Ryan Braun, Buster Posey. So there's some coincidence/sample size involved. The draft is difficult. But that and international signings are the two major sources for young players. The third source, and most efficient, is trading for other teams prospects....you should get a more consistent return because they are more developed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 16 minutes ago, GreenSox said: And I just scanned the #5 picks over the same period and I see Matt Williams, Dwight Gooden, Jack McDowell, Vernon Wells, JD Drew, Mark Texeira, Ryan Braun, Buster Posey. So there's some coincidence/sample size involved. The draft is difficult. But that and international signings are the two major sources for young players. The third source, and most efficient, is trading for other teams prospects....you should get a more consistent return because they are more developed. You're still only at 8 players out of a 40 year period. I get your point, that it varies slot to slot for sure, but the expectation shouldn't be an impact player is guaranteed because you had the 4th or 5th pick. I think I have the draft data exported into my information at home; I'll see if I can run an average fWAR output for each draft slot since 1980. It's a fun exercise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 3 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said: Law: "if you can't make hard contact it's hard to hit over .300." One good counter I've heard for this is David Fletcher's 2019. He was literally one of the worst in MLB when it came to hard contact rate/exit velocity, but hit .290 with a .302 xBA. Like Madrigal, he is fast, but not elite as a runner. Hopefully Madrigal has similar production Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold's Leg Lift Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 His name was brought up along with Kolten Wong and Kevin Newman none of whom ever made his top 100. Solid players but not stars. There is a method to the madness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominikk85 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Does anyone know if madrigal tried to add a couple pounds this off season? He doesn't have the frame to carry that much extra weight well but 10-15 pounds more than last season would probably help him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 23 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said: Does anyone know if madrigal tried to add a couple pounds this off season? He doesn't have the frame to carry that much extra weight well but 10-15 pounds more than last season would probably help him. He did add muscle this offseason. Not sure how much, but it was noticeable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted February 27, 2020 Author Share Posted February 27, 2020 top 20 had good writeups including placing Beard, Ramos, Rodriguez and Gladney in top 20 (and keeping Bush there). He put Thompson as his sleeper if he can regain his pre senior HS days. Stiever was ranked above Madrigal, sees him as possible MLB callup from AA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishPrince34 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 He had Kevin Newman on his Top 100 twice. He was always the high man on Newman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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