Sox in Discussions for Moncada Extension per Y2Jimmy

[ptatc]

3 hours ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Probably due to their shift or change in strategy.  Maybe identifying top prospects to acquire is more obvious and easier than signing mediocre veterans and hoping they are productive?

Why was Theo Epstein good at developing offensive prospects and smaller acquisitions and trades but awful at developing pitching and making larger trades and acquisitions for high-priced players?

Some GMs are good in certain areas and awful in others.  For the most part, Hahn has been great at working team-friendly contracts but awful at free agency in most years.

My point exactly. Was it their change in philosophy or was it they were finally allowed to pursue their philosophy.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

This wasn't an attempt at trolling, I've never done that over the 15 years I've been on this board, rather to make posters look at the bigger picture. Maybe it wasn't solely the decisions of the FO guiding the previous philosophy. Maybe they had orders from someone above them to not do a rebuild. Once they were allowed to maybe, it's not over yet, but maybe they had the right philosophy all along.

Maybe we should wait until they win 82+ games in a season before we start patting everyone on the back for a job well done.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Maybe we should wait until they win 82+ games in a season before we start patting everyone on the back for a job well done.

It may not be successful, that's why I said maybe. But i don't think the drastic change in philosophy was just because the FO woke up one day and said, "let's totally change the way we approach this team." KW said for years that he always presented two plans to JR for the year. One to continue to add to the team and another to rebuild and start over. Being a player development guy, he knew which one he wanted. 

I think everything changed when Sale and Eaton "mutinied" in the clubhouse and they finally convinced JR that it wasn't working and JR gave them the go ahead for a total rebuild.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, ptatc said:

It may not be successful, that's why I said maybe. But i don't think the drastic change in philosophy was just because the FO woke up one day and said, "let's totally change the way we approach this team." KW said for years that he always presented two plans to JR for the year. One to continue to add to the team and another to rebuild and start over. Being a player development guy, he knew which one he wanted. 

I think everything changed when Sale and Eaton "mutinied" in the clubhouse and they finally convinced JR that it wasn't working and JR gave them the go ahead for a total rebuild.

Kenny never struck me as a rebuild and lose on purpose guy - theres years and years of data to support that. 

Regardless I think everyone is getting a bit carried away. I'm as excited as anyone but nothing has been achieved and theres still work to be done. This has not been the resounding success as some are portraying it.

[hi8is]

Ptatc, if anyone hasn’t told you today that you’re awesome... well, you’re awesome. So there.

Edited February 26, 2020 by hi8is
poop

[Moan4Yoan]

18 minutes ago, ptatc said:

My point exactly. Was it their change in philosophy or was it they were finally allowed to pursue their philosophy.

Even if you point to a change in their philosophy, the Kenny/Hahn regime still blew the implementation of their previous philosophy with poor scouting and development, numerous bad draft picks, awful free agent signings, and over-the-hill veteran acquisitions.

Unless your argument is either that no team could win with their old philosophy or that they were intentionally trying to lose?  Because Tampa Bay managed to do pretty well with a minuscule payroll.

Edited February 26, 2020 by Moan4Yoan

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Even if you point to a change in their philosophy, the Kenny/Hahn regime still blew the implementation of their previous philosophy with poor scouting and development, numerous bad draft picks, awful free agent signings, and over-the-hill veteran acquisitions.

Unless your argument is either that no team could win with their old philosophy or that they were intentionally trying to lose?  Because Tampa Bay managed to do pretty well with a minuscule payroll.

I understand why many Sox fans - and fans around the game in general - point to Tampa as some enviable organization of scouting and development; they're very good at it.

But... the Rays have won nothing. They have had great rosters that ownership would not supplement - this year alone, they could have easily had a top 3 roster entering the season. They had the pieces in place, and all they had to do was supplement them with a LITTLE money; not even a huge investment. Instead, they traded Pham to acquire more pieces, and made additional depth based moves. For all the Rays do well, they run the team - generally - like shit and I have no desire for the Sox to operate like that. Would I like the Sox to have the analytics department and scouting revolution similarly to Tampa? Sure - although I do think they've improved that quite a bit - but I don't envy the way the Rays operate. The goal is never to push the chips in and go for broke when the roster says too. Even the A's have pushed their chips in when the time called for it. 

[Moan4Yoan]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I understand why many Sox fans - and fans around the game in general - point to Tampa as some enviable organization of scouting and development; they're very good at it.

But... the Rays have won nothing. They have had great rosters that ownership would not supplement - this year alone, they could have easily had a top 3 roster entering the season. They had the pieces in place, and all they had to do was supplement them with a LITTLE money; not even a huge investment. Instead, they traded Pham to acquire more pieces, and made additional depth based moves. For all the Rays do well, they run the team - generally - like shit and I have no desire for the Sox to operate like that. Would I like the Sox to have the analytics department and scouting revolution similarly to Tampa? Sure - although I do think they've improved that quite a bit - but I don't envy the way the Rays operate. The goal is never to push the chips in and go for broke when the roster says too. Even the A's have pushed their chips in when the time called for it. 

It’s just an example of a team that did much better than the Sox with Kenny and Hahn at the helm, with even less spending.  I don’t see how anyone could say Kenny and Hahn did anything other than a piss poor job in the last ten or so years pre-rebuild.

Edited February 26, 2020 by Moan4Yoan

[ptatc]

15 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Even if you point to a change in their philosophy, the Kenny/Hahn regime still blew the implementation of their previous philosophy with poor scouting and development, numerous bad draft picks, awful free agent signings, and over-the-hill veteran acquisitions.

Unless your argument is either that no team could win with their old philosophy or that they were intentionally trying to lose?  Because Tampa Bay managed to do pretty well with a minuscule payroll.

It's not that they couldn't win with the old philosophy, it's that that it was difficult to win with the old philosophy and the restrictions from JR. they did not succeed at it, no doubt. However, with the restrictions they have a total rebuild with young affordable players was the best chance of making it work. the FO is doing all of these extensions because it gives them cost certainty in the future and they will have a better budget plan.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

It’s just an example of a team that did much better than the Sox with Kenny and Hahn at the helm, with even less spending.  I don’t see how anyone could say Kenny and Hahn did anything other than a piss poor job in the last ten or so years pre-rebuild.

It's been the worst 7 year stretch in franchise history; with the only comparison being the 40's or 20's. I'm with you 100% here; this anointing of greatness for the FO before anything has happened is absolutely baffling. Let's play and win some games first.

[Y2Jimmy0]

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It's been the worst 7 year stretch in franchise history; with the only comparison being the 40's or 20's. I'm with you 100% here; this anointing of greatness for the FO before anything has happened is absolutely baffling. Let's play and win some games first.

I'd argue that the last 4 years were much better than anything that took place from 2009-2015 though. They would constantly kick the can down the road. The organization was basically just treading water. Not losing enough to benefit, not building rosters good enough to win, not spending appropriately on amateur talent, no scouting or development changes geared toward sustain success. The success on the big league level over the past few years has been terrible but it was by design. They have more talent in the organization right now than they've had before and logical player development models in place that are sustainable into the future. 

[mqr]

8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It's been the worst 7 year stretch in franchise history; with the only comparison being the 40's or 20's. I'm with you 100% here; this anointing of greatness for the FO before anything has happened is absolutely baffling. Let's play and win some games first.

Let me clarify that I anointed them simply of being better than GarPax

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, mqr said:

Let me clarify that I anointed them simply of being better than GarPax

Yeah, I wasn't speaking to you as much; Kenny and Rick have a ring and a trophy on display. They are clearly better than Gar/Pax. 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

I'm just praying this extension gets done. If it does, the Sox could have a 6 or 7 year competitive window which would be incredible.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I'd argue that the last 4 years were much better than anything that took place from 2009-2015 though. They would constantly kick the can down the road. The organization was basically just treading water. Not losing enough to benefit, not building rosters good enough to win, not spending appropriately on amateur talent, no scouting or development changes geared toward sustain success. The success on the big league level over the past few years has been terrible but it was by design. They have more talent in the organization right now than they've had before and logical player development models in place that are sustainable into the future. 

Jimmy, I am happy with the direction that Hahn has gotten people to take this organization. I like that he has interjected a modern aspect to the organization, and I like that he has intertwined old-school and new-school mentalities. I obviously think Hahn is a very bright guy and the baseball community felt that way about him for a long time. None of that has changed. 

That said, I can't compliment his work in these areas until there's actual fruits of that labor. Implementation is only 50% of the battle; analyzing and executing are the other 50%. I still think they have struggled to put in a system at all minor league levels that matches the goal and directive from the top, but I think they may have finally completed that merger with the firings on the farm of old-school coaches and etc. Again though, I need to see results before I say job well done. There weren't exactly a ton of position players making strides last year either which sucks. The game moves fast; edges the Sox have had in past decade+ are no long edges as the rest of the league has copy-catted (their health program for pitchers, and possibly now their extensions although I think Hahn can still excel better than others there), and we need to trust that this organization can be a trend setter and not a follower within the game. I'm not there yet but I can get there if they succeed and execute these next 5 years well. 

Edited February 26, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[ptatc]

20 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Jimmy, I am happy with the direction that Hahn has gotten people to take this organization. I like that he has interjected a modern aspect to the organization, and I like that he has intertwined old-school and new-school mentalities. I obviously think Hahn is a very bright guy and the baseball community felt that way about him for a long time. None of that has changed. 

That said, I can't compliment his work in these areas until there's actual fruits of that labor. Implementation is only 50% of the battle; analyzing and executing are the other 50%. I still think they have struggled to put in a system at all minor league levels that matches the goal and directive from the top, but I think they may have finally completed that merger with the firings on the farm of old-school coaches and etc. Again though, I need to see results before I say job well done. There weren't exactly a ton of position players making strides last year either which sucks. The game moves fast; edges the Sox have had in past decade+ are no long edges as the rest of the league has copy-catted (their health program for pitchers, and possibly now their extensions although I think Hahn can still excel better than others there), and we need to trust that this organization can be a trend setter and not a follower within the game. I'm not there yet but I can get there if they succeed and execute these next 5 years well. 

This is all true. however, my question is, are all of these issues directly from the FO or from JR? There is no doubt that the FO hasn't shown results yet. If they don't win this year and start competing for the playoffs next year, they should be gone. In the end it is all MLB results. However, with the way they have implemented and executed the new plan, they really don't seem to be incompetent. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

46 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

It’s just an example of a team that did much better than the Sox with Kenny and Hahn at the helm, with even less spending.  I don’t see how anyone could say Kenny and Hahn did anything other than a piss poor job in the last ten or so years pre-rebuild.

Yea it's not like Reinsdorf ever pushed all the chips in . They are like TB in one respect . They are very conscious of the bottom line. This is supposed to be the beginning of the push to compete and looks like they cut off payroll at where ever its at right now. $110 ? The Rays made the playoffs starting the season with a payroll of $69M , Was the Sox payroll ever that low during the rebuild and yet when we want to supposedly compete it's still in the bottom half of MLB .

Sure you can point to all the acquisitions and extensions as positive signs but they aren't . They had to come out of the rebuild .Why can't they spend more than $110M this year ?

I 've said in the past that next year is really the year to win but with a few breakouts  by Cease, Kopech and/or Lopez the Sox could make a run at the division.  But of course there will be money to spend at the trade deadline if and only if we are actually in a position to do so. Of course we might be in a better position if they actually decided to try to be more than the Tampa Bay Rays of mid market teams. Or maybe that's the Twins or Indians or Royals who make the most of a mid market payroll by actually making the playoffs in consecutive years once in a while.

[Moan4Yoan]

53 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I'd argue that the last 4 years were much better than anything that took place from 2009-2015 though. They would constantly kick the can down the road. The organization was basically just treading water. Not losing enough to benefit, not building rosters good enough to win, not spending appropriately on amateur talent, no scouting or development changes geared toward sustain success. The success on the big league level over the past few years has been terrible but it was by design. They have more talent in the organization right now than they've had before and logical player development models in place that are sustainable into the future. 

I think I agree with this.  Even though they were losing, you knew they at least had a plan.  The previous plan was simply treading water by signing a bunch of retread vets and hoping they all somehow have a magical season.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

57 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I'd argue that the last 4 years were much better than anything that took place from 2009-2015 though. They would constantly kick the can down the road. The organization was basically just treading water. Not losing enough to benefit, not building rosters good enough to win, not spending appropriately on amateur talent, no scouting or development changes geared toward sustain success. The success on the big league level over the past few years has been terrible but it was by design. They have more talent in the organization right now than they've had before and logical player development models in place that are sustainable into the future. 

You are a wonderful poster and insider and I hate to disagree with you. But it seems obvious to me that the spending to upgrade player development, scouting, etc. should have been done at the beginning of the rebuild when we were trotting out minimum payrolls.

Why wait till you are coming out of the rebuild to do it ? You max out the payroll at $110 then JR says . STOP ! Then the fanbase gets so pumped about all the good players we signed, the extensions , the forays into modern techniques and IFA that they all fall in line to praise the FO .

Am I supposed to be impressed the Sox are finally doing what even  teams with lower payrolls have done to maximize talent evaluation. Doing all these good things now just seems like veiled reasons to hold down the payroll by saying look we want to keep the band together , we want to modernize, we want to become more active in IFA  thats why we have to keep payroll where it is .

Well why the hell wasn't all this done 10 years ago. I'll tell you why . It has always appeared in order to run the Sox at a profit Reinsdorf can't spend in every single area that needs money put into it to be good at it.

Player development, scouting IFA , modernizing all took a back seat while the Sox were having higher payrolls and trying to win. They can't be profitable pouring money into all areas like successful organizations.

The Twins have run a very successful IFA part of their organization supplementing the roster with good talent , Even they have a payroll right around $130M now. The freaking Twins run circles around the Sox FO. The Twins might as well be a Canadian team.  The City that Works, The City of  Broad Shoulders White Sox is still the least successful franchise in MLB history when it comes to winning and as usual there is one foot on the gas with the other foot on the brake.

[mqr]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Why wait till you are coming out of the rebuild to do it ? You max out the payroll at $110 then JR says . STOP !

Conjecture

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, mqr said:

Let me clarify that I anointed them simply of being better than GarPax

Even you don't seem to think they are very good if that's your bar.

[mqr]

8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Even you don't seem to think they are very good if that's your bar.

I don't

I think they had a okay run through 2012 and had their way of doing business blow up in their face and have done a nice job in righting ship after waiting too long to right it. 

Edited February 26, 2020 by mqr

[Harry Chappas]

All I know is that at least we hear now about transforming the business model and incorporating the international market and technology into redefining the White Sox franchise model.  In the past the White Sox seemed to live with blinders on and except nothing new.  There appears to me some gravitation toward what other teams are finding success in. 

Well all except Don Cooper who seems to be saying he is but I for some reason do not believe he has embraced technology at all....hopefully he finds a sweet spot of middle ground of old and new school.

What I really think the White Sox will do that the cubs for instance failed on is selling all out for one title.  

[chitownsportsfan]

The Sox are currently operating like a fairly progressive, smart franchise.  That wasn't the case as far back as, uh, 9 months ago when they were still trotting out Yonder Alonso in a rebuild year, with plenty of AAAA types already in house needing a look.

They have gained some small amount of trust with myself and probably a few other fans.  That trust can easily be lost if they revert to penny pinching or fail to capitalize on the talent they have acquired.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

33 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The Sox are currently operating like a fairly progressive, smart franchise.  That wasn't the case as far back as, uh, 9 months ago when they were still trotting out Yonder Alonso in a rebuild year, with plenty of AAAA types already in house needing a look.

They have gained some small amount of trust with myself and probably a few other fans.  That trust can easily be lost if they revert to penny pinching or fail to capitalize on the talent they have acquired.

This seems like the most logical approach. I'm not even sure what the actual payroll is. I keep saying it's around $110 but when I look on Roster Resource on Fangraphs  I don't know what to think. Below is the 2020 estimates.

 

 

 

AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts (does not include players no longer on 40-man roster)	$111,783,334	This is the number i keep talking about
Salaries for players eligible for arbitration	$27,042,500
AAVs for players no longer on 40-man roster or no longer in organization
Sum of Other Payments (does not include potential buyouts)
Estimated salaries for players not yet eligible for arbitration and other players with non-guaranteed contracts	$8,579,500
Estimated salaries for 40-man roster players in minor leagues	$2,250,000
Estimated player benefits to be paid	$15,000,000
Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll Is the estimated Luxury Tax payroll what I should be looking at ? Is this right ?   I've also seen the payroll estimated at close to $128M.	$164,655,334

Edited February 26, 2020 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside