chitownsportsfan Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 Season starts 3 weeks from today if you can believe it. Let's pass some time speculating on projections for prominent White Sox. For pitchers we'll do innings, fWAR and ERA. Position players we'll do fWAR, OPS and HR. We'll start with one of the most surprising players in recent memory: Lucas Giolito. Coming off a season in which he literally went from the worst starter in MLB to one of the 10 best. 2019: 176.2IP, 5.1 fWAR, ERA 3.41 ZIPS: 176IP, 5.2 fWAR, ERA 3.20 Going UNDER on fWAR and OVER on ERA and innings. My best guess is 195IP, 4.8fWAR and ERA 3.70. I'm expecting some regression in K/9 and HR rate. Still thinking he's going to have a very nice year and is a great 2nd starter or if you squint is a decent number 1. Tomorrow will be Yoan Moncada! Another tough one coming off a breakout. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted March 6, 2020 Author Share Posted March 6, 2020 20 days! Today's over under is Yoan Moncada! And how appropriate given his extension yesterday! 2019: 915 OPS, 5.7 fWAR, 25 HR ZIPS: 824 OPS, 3.9 fWAR, 26 HR This is easy I'm going OVER on everything. I expect Moncada to move into the top 10 in average exit velocity, continue to fine tune his right handed swing, and hit something like 290/360/520. Would be SHOCKED if he has an OPS under 850. Among other things ZIPS only thinks he's going to run neutral on the bases. I'd expect him to be closer to 3-4. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted March 8, 2020 Author Share Posted March 8, 2020 19 days. Enthusiasm for my thread is through the roof so I'll keep going! Today's O/U is Nomar Mazara! 2019: 777 OPS, .5fWAR, 19 HR ZIPS: 746 OPS, .9fWAR 22 HR Oof. This is a hard one. On one hand the clay is there, the raw power is there and he's at the point where you'd expect a breakout to come, if it's coming. On the other hand you don't get extra credit for being a .5 WAR player from 22-24 -- just look at the projections, which have that baked in. I'm going to go OVER on OPS, OVER on fWAR and OVER on 22 HR. That said -- I'm expecting about 2 WAR at most from him. I can see something like 250/310/480 with mediocre at best defense in RF and he misses 30 or so games with injury. He's Avi to me until he proves otherwise. We shall see. Getting into the harder ones now and only 3 guys done. Sunday we'll look at Luis Robert. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said: 19 days. Enthusiasm for my thread is through the roof so I'll keep going! Today's O/U is Nomar Mazara! 2019: 777 OPS, .5fWAR, 19 HR ZIPS: 746 OPS, .9fWAR 22 HR Oof. This is a hard one. On one hand the clay is there, the raw power is there and he's at the point where you'd expect a breakout to come, if it's coming. On the other hand you don't get extra credit for being a .5 WAR player from 22-24 -- just look at the projections, which have that baked in. I'm going to go OVER on OPS, OVER on fWAR and OVER on 22 HR. That said -- I'm expecting about 2 WAR at most from him. I can see something like 250/310/480 with mediocre at best defense in RF and he misses 30 or so games with injury. He's Avi to me until he proves otherwise. We shall see. Getting into the harder ones now and only 3 guys done. Sunday we'll look at Luis Robert. ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reiks12 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 Im taking the over on Mazara just frok what I have seen this spring. Lets see if his mechanical changes can do some work! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldsox Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said: 19 days. Enthusiasm for my thread is through the roof so I'll keep going! Today's O/U is Nomar Mazara! 2019: 777 OPS, .5fWAR, 19 HR ZIPS: 746 OPS, .9fWAR 22 HR Oof. This is a hard one. On one hand the clay is there, the raw power is there and he's at the point where you'd expect a breakout to come, if it's coming. On the other hand you don't get extra credit for being a .5 WAR player from 22-24 -- just look at the projections, which have that baked in. I'm going to go OVER on OPS, OVER on fWAR and OVER on 22 HR. That said -- I'm expecting about 2 WAR at most from him. I can see something like 250/310/480 with mediocre at best defense in RF and he misses 30 or so games with injury. He's Avi to me until he proves otherwise. We shall see. Getting into the harder ones now and only 3 guys done. Sunday we'll look at Luis Robert. Avi > Mazara 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoUEvenShift Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 50 minutes ago, oldsox said: Avi > Mazara Maybe i'm just getting fooled by spring but Engel is lookin mighty hot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted March 9, 2020 Author Share Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) 18 days. Wow, that's so close you can taste it. Luis Robert. "La Pantera" ("The Panther") and a well earned nickname at that with a speed and power combo rarely seen in MLB. These types of athletes usually play basketball or football. But he has the skills to match racking up the USA Today MiLB player of the year award last year after doing this across all levels: Hit 328 with a .376 on-base percentage, 32 home runs, 92 RBI and a minor-league leading 36 stolen bases. ZIPS, as you'd imagine from a player that contributes in all areas is excited, and Dan Z did a deep dive on Robert this week that gets one exited. 2019: NA ZIPS: 764, 2.5fWAR 20HR I'm going under on OPS but OVER on fWAR and over on HR. He's only projected for 120 games or so by ZIPS: he'll probably play more than that. I can see something like 250/300/450 with monster +15 or so run defense in CF from the fWAR defensive component and +5 or so runs on the bases as well. I just don't think he's going to hit much more than 250 this year. In his prime? We'll see. For now I'll be happy with a 3 WAR 22 year old CF. Edited March 9, 2020 by chitownsportsfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said: Luis Robert. "La Pantera" ("The Panther") and a well earned nickname at that with a speed and power combo rarely seen in MLB. These types of athletes usually play basketball or football. But he has the skills to match racking up the USA Today MiLB player of the year award last year after doing this across all levels: Hit 328 with a .376 on-base percentage, 32 home runs, 92 RBI and a minor-league leading 36 stolen bases. ZIPS, as you'd imagine from a player that contributes in all areas is excited 2019: NA ZIPS: 764, 2.5fWAR 20HR I'm going under on OPS but OVER on fWAR and over on HR. He's only projected for 120 games or so by ZIPS: he'll probably play more than that. I can see something like 250/300/450 with monster +15 or so run defense in CF from the fWAR defensive component and +5 or so runs on the bases as well. I just don't think he's going to hit much more than 250 this year. In his prime? We'll see. For now I'll be happy with a 3 WAR 22 year old CF. You are doing great so far. Keep up the good work. The responses might be minimal but it's an interesting thread. Hard to say how Robert will do once he faces everyone's good starting pitching and relievers. I think he'll definitely beat the fWAR and his Slg. should be good with his speed getting some hustle doubles and could lead the league in triples. His bat speed is very good and makes hard loud contact. It's just a matter of how he adjusts to pitchers not throwing him strikes and his ability to lay off all the breaking balls and change ups he will be seeing. I'll say over on all the ZIPS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) On 3/7/2020 at 4:32 PM, chitownsportsfan said: 19 days. Enthusiasm for my thread is through the roof so I'll keep going! Today's O/U is Nomar Mazara! 2019: 777 OPS, .5fWAR, 19 HR ZIPS: 746 OPS, .9fWAR 22 HR Oof. This is a hard one. On one hand the clay is there, the raw power is there and he's at the point where you'd expect a breakout to come, if it's coming. On the other hand you don't get extra credit for being a .5 WAR player from 22-24 -- just look at the projections, which have that baked in. I'm going to go OVER on OPS, OVER on fWAR and OVER on 22 HR. That said -- I'm expecting about 2 WAR at most from him. I can see something like 250/310/480 with mediocre at best defense in RF and he misses 30 or so games with injury. He's Avi to me until he proves otherwise. We shall see. Getting into the harder ones now and only 3 guys done. Sunday we'll look at Luis Robert. I look at Mazara and see so much talent. Nice swing , goes with pitches, tremendous power but he still hits too many ground balls. I was hoping he could change that . This is why he was available cheap. It was a good gamble because the talent is through the roof . Well it is spring so why not be optimistic and say over on all Zips. Edited March 9, 2020 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside typos changed right away after posting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 On 3/6/2020 at 11:36 AM, chitownsportsfan said: 20 days! Today's over under is Yoan Moncada! And how appropriate given his extension yesterday! 2019: 915 OPS, 5.7 fWAR, 25 HR ZIPS: 824 OPS, 3.9 fWAR, 26 HR This is easy I'm going OVER on everything. I expect Moncada to move into the top 10 in average exit velocity, continue to fine tune his right handed swing, and hit something like 290/360/520. Would be SHOCKED if he has an OPS under 850. Among other things ZIPS only thinks he's going to run neutral on the bases. I'd expect him to be closer to 3-4. Moncada is a hard one. He made the necessary adjustments last year but now it's the pitchers turns. If he is truly an elite type player like we saw last year then you could be right and he beats everything. He might see more junk and maybe he hits best when he is hitting earlier in the count and hitting the 1st good pitches he sees. I expect him to see a lot less good pitches. But that will be the case with a lot of our hitters so they need to take their walks . I'll still go higher on OPS and fWAR but 26 HR's seems about right. I think his batting average is lower so he'll have to walk more but how will that affect his K 's and the aggressiveness he showed that led to a great year in 2019 ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 On 3/5/2020 at 11:24 AM, chitownsportsfan said: Season starts 3 weeks from today if you can believe it. Let's pass some time speculating on projections for prominent White Sox. For pitchers we'll do innings, fWAR and ERA. Position players we'll do fWAR, OPS and HR. We'll start with one of the most surprising players in recent memory: Lucas Giolito. Coming off a season in which he literally went from the worst starter in MLB to one of the 10 best. 2019: 176.2IP, 5.1 fWAR, ERA 3.41 ZIPS: 176IP, 5.2 fWAR, ERA 3.20 Going UNDER on fWAR and OVER on ERA and innings. My best guess is 195IP, 4.8fWAR and ERA 3.70. I'm expecting some regression in K/9 and HR rate. Still thinking he's going to have a very nice year and is a great 2nd starter or if you squint is a decent number 1. Tomorrow will be Yoan Moncada! Another tough one coming off a breakout. Another hard one. As is the case with Moncada a great year is hard to improve upon. Once you put back to back great years together it's time to expect it every year.Higher on the IP less fWAR and a higher ERA. 3.20 is really good for an AL starting pitcher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted March 9, 2020 Author Share Posted March 9, 2020 Guess I gotta do this today even tho that Trump presser just put me in a bad mood. Who should we even do? Oh hell let's do Jose Abreu. 2019: 833, 33, 1.9 ZIPS: 798, 28, 1.4 oof. Can I go with "not touching this one with a 10 foot pole"? Whatever I'll go UNDER on everything. I think he's pretty much toast. I can see something like 260/300/480, 28 bombs, misses three weeks with random soreness and ends up at like 1.2 fWAR Luckily there are plenty of guys knocking down the door at 1B the coming years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted March 11, 2020 Author Share Posted March 11, 2020 (edited) 16 days now. Today's player O/U is Eloy Jimenez. While the hype train has moved to the Luis Robert station Eloy remains perhaps the most intriguing young Sox position player. Is there 50 HR power in that bat? How about playing passable defense in LF? Can he put it together enough to be a 5-6 WAR player in his prime or will he be more like an "El Caballo" type and never quite unlock that superstar potential? We'll see. 2019: 818, 31, 1.9 ZIPS: 861, 33, 2.2 ZIPS likes Eloy and so do I but not enough to go over on the OPS. I'm going to go UNDER on OPS, OVER on HR and OVER on fWAR. He's going to improve his defense, be a sneaky good baserunner and struggle with whiffs. My prediction is 270/330/530 but he stays healthy, plays 150 games, and improves to simply "bad" in left instead of "brutal" and finishes with around 2.7 fWAR. Edited March 11, 2020 by chitownsportsfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 On 3/9/2020 at 4:31 PM, chitownsportsfan said: Guess I gotta do this today even tho that Trump presser just put me in a bad mood. Who should we even do? Oh hell let's do Jose Abreu. 2019: 833, 33, 1.9 ZIPS: 798, 28, 1.4 oof. Can I go with "not touching this one with a 10 foot pole"? Whatever I'll go UNDER on everything. I think he's pretty much toast. I can see something like 260/300/480, 28 bombs, misses three weeks with random soreness and ends up at like 1.2 fWAR Luckily there are plenty of guys knocking down the door at 1B the coming years. The 2019 numbers were pretty good. I don't what what you mean by toast because he knows how to hit especially when it comes to driving in runs. He;s a professional hitter through and through. I'll just go over on everything mostly because he's now hitting in a lineup that doesn't actually suck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 On 3/10/2020 at 6:44 PM, chitownsportsfan said: 16 days now. Today's player O/U is Eloy Jimenez. While the hype train has moved to the Luis Robert station Eloy remains perhaps the most intriguing young Sox position player. Is there 50 HR power in that bat? How about playing passable defense in LF? Can he put it together enough to be a 5-6 WAR player in his prime or will he be more like an "El Caballo" type and never quite unlock that superstar potential? We'll see. 2019: 818, 31, 1.9 ZIPS: 861, 33, 2.2 ZIPS likes Eloy and so do I but not enough to go over on the OPS. I'm going to go UNDER on OPS, OVER on HR and OVER on fWAR. He's going to improve his defense, be a sneaky good baserunner and struggle with whiffs. My prediction is 270/330/530 but he stays healthy, plays 150 games, and improves to simply "bad" in left instead of "brutal" and finishes with around 2.7 fWAR. Over on everything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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