Pandemic Realignment: Sox in the Cactus League West

[hi8is]

2 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

Fauci's comments today

What’d he say?

[KrankinSox]

1 minute ago, hi8is said:

What’d he say?

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/dr-anthony-fauci-believes-mlb-can-return-in-2020-theres-a-way-of-doing-that/313279978

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, hi8is said:

What’d he say?

I'm assuming this from vanity fair:

"

__ I just have a couple of more lifestyle questions, then I’ll let you go. People are still holding out hope for some kind of abbreviated baseball season this summer, college football will start in late August. NFL right after that. Do you think those sports seasons are in jeopardy? Are we going to have college football this fall?__

You know, to be honest with you, Peter, I don’t know. I really don’t. And it’s sort of along the same line as the question you asked about the schools. It’s really going to depend on what actually evolves over the next couple of months. You know, regarding sports, I believe, and I think this is going to be implemented by the initiation and the initiative of the people who own these clubs. If you could get on television, Major League Baseball, to start July 4. Let’s say, nobody comes to the stadium. You just, you do it. I mean people say, “Well you can’t play without spectators.” Well, I think you’d probably get enough buy-in from people who are dying to see a baseball game. Particularly me. I’m living in Washington. We have the World Champion Washington Nationals. You know, I want to see them play again. But there’s a way of doing that because there have been some proposals both at the level of the NFL, Major League Baseball, National Hockey League, to get these people tested, and to put them in big hotels, you know, wherever you want to play. Keep them very well surveilled, namely a surveillance, but have them tested, like every week. By a gazillion tests. And make sure they don’t wind up infecting each other or their family. And just let them play the season out. I mean, that’s a really artificial way to do it, but when you think about it, it might be better than nothing.

Yeah, the TV ratings would be through the roof.

Oh, for sure."

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/anthony-fauci-on-new-rules-of-living-with-coronavirus

[Harold's Leg Lift]

29 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I'm not going to defend billionaires but yeah. They aren't getting the close to 40% of revenue that they would otherwise from attendance, concessions etc. 

In this scenario their expenses are also slashed so they would pocket millions while asking the players to take a cut.  You can understand why this is an issue for the players union.  

Maybe the players take a cut and the owners agree to some sort of 1 year revenue sharing plan.  That's a lot of compromising.  

[Balta1701]

22 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

In this scenario their expenses are also slashed so they would pocket millions while asking the players to take a cut.  You can understand why this is an issue for the players union.  

Maybe the players take a cut and the owners agree to some sort of 1 year revenue sharing plan.  That's a lot of compromising.  

If you've got a situation where the major networks come in and offer a substantial slice of their revenue, and the owners and players have to figure out whether they are going to argue for weeks and get nothing or get ST started and get something, those compromises will happen extremely quickly. Both sides would be motivated.

[bmags]

The thing is, there is very little leverage. Higher ratings may not even turn into increased revenue because advertising sales have fallen off a cliff.

https://www.broadcastingcable.com/news/virus-cuts-linear-tv-ad-revenues-by-27-iab

No team or owner is going to thrive in this. They will do what they can to keep the league afloat including supporting teams with sharing.

[Balta1701]

Just now, bmags said:

The thing is, there is very little leverage. Higher ratings may not even turn into increased revenue because advertising sales have fallen off a cliff.

https://www.broadcastingcable.com/news/virus-cuts-linear-tv-ad-revenues-by-27-iab

No team or owner is going to thrive in this. They will do what they can to keep the league afloat including supporting teams with sharing.

I would imagine that, rather than the networks agreeing to fixed dollar amounts, everyone would have to agree to a percentage of revenue since no one would really know what would be coming in until it actually came in. 

I could see this being a stumbling block for baseball since they've never agreed to a "Revenue split" like the other leagues, but if they're in "gun to their head/come up with an agreement now or no one gets anything all year" territory, anyone who tries to be stubborn winds up losing.

[Jack Parkman]

Yet another thread from experts saying that even lifting restrictions any time soon isn't likely, let alone having sports in empty stadiums. 

https://theathletic.com/1747847/2020/04/15/data-not-dates-what-doctors-need-to-know-before-sports-should-return-to-normal/

[Vulture]

According to fangraphs, 90% of mlb TV revenue is from subscriber fees, only 10% from ad revenue. They pretty much owe it to us since we are paying for it either way. We've paid for it for a hundred plus years. If they have to take a hit, they take a hit. We the fans have made a ton of people richer than they should be. I think they know that. If the owners don't know that they're in the wrong business.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Vulture

[Vulture]

Also, the total mob payroll is around 4 billion, TV revenues around 10 billion. Whether they can afford it shouldn't even be a concern. These guys have been raking it in hand over fist and we have paid for it.

[KrankinSox]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yet another thread from experts saying that even lifting restrictions any time soon isn't likely, let alone having sports in empty stadiums. 

https://theathletic.com/1747847/2020/04/15/data-not-dates-what-doctors-need-to-know-before-sports-should-return-to-normal/

Yeah, we get it. You have the doom and gloom take about all of this. You can find all the articles you want that agree with this side of things.

The fact is, the top health official in the country said today that this is possible. There are billions on the line for owners and millions on the line for players. They're going to try to make it work. Mark Cuban has been in conversations with health officials and the President and he thinks an NBA return is possible.

It may not work but I just don't understand why you insist on shitting on any talk of it being possible. People are looking for hope and for sports to return. At this point in time, there are obstacles but a return is very much still in the works. 

[pcq]

By mid-summer they can play in AZ-FL parks by being very careful and wearing masks. Of course now they are selling baseball masks which should prove popular. Before long there will be blind dates with masks. Sort of like the old double-baggers. 

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, KrankinSox said:

Yeah, we get it. You have the doom and gloom take about all of this. You can find all the articles you want that agree with this side of things.

The fact is, the top health official in the country said today that this is possible. There are billions on the line for owners and millions on the line for players. They're going to try to make it work. Mark Cuban has been in conversations with health officials and the President and he thinks an NBA return is possible.

It may not work but I just don't understand why you insist on shitting on any talk of it being possible. People are looking for hope and for sports to return. At this point in time, there are obstacles but a return is very much still in the works. 

There's not enough information yet to make an informed decision. Until there is, you can't put a timeframe on anything. You can't even think about even lifting restrictions until there is enough testing that anyone who wants a test can get one. There's not even enough data to say definitively that we're turning the peak, because the data is incomplete. The data that exists isn't sufficient for any big picture decision making.

The bottom line is that anyone who says anything is possible is lying out their ass. The correct answer is that we don't know and we don't have enough information. 

Facts are facts. 

Edited April 15, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[default]

3 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yet another thread from experts saying that even lifting restrictions any time soon isn't likely, let alone having sports in empty stadiums. 

https://theathletic.com/1747847/2020/04/15/data-not-dates-what-doctors-need-to-know-before-sports-should-return-to-normal/

You only seek out negative information.  

[southsider2k5]

51 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

There's not enough information yet to make an informed decision. Until there is, you can't put a timeframe on anything. You can't even think about even lifting restrictions until there is enough testing that anyone who wants a test can get one. There's not even enough data to say definitively that we're turning the peak, because the data is incomplete. The data that exists isn't sufficient for any big picture decision making.

The bottom line is that anyone who says anything is possible is lying out their ass. The correct answer is that we don't know and we don't have enough information. 

Facts are facts. 

This is too far. You can THINK about what it would take to reopen things. It would be negligent to not have plans and standards in place ahead of time to be ready to reopen society when appropriate. 

I know overreaction is kind of your thing, but now is the time for thinking and planning.  Just because we don't have a solid end date doesn't mean you punt on the concept. 

[Jack Parkman]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is too far. You can THINK about what it would take to reopen things. It would be negligent to not have plans and standards in place ahead of time to be ready to reopen society when appropriate. 

I know overreaction is kind of your thing, but now is the time for thinking and planning.  Just because we don't have a solid end date doesn't mean you punt on the concept. 

Of course...you can think and plan, but putting a date on anything at this time is just not realistic. 

Maybe you misunderstood what I was talking about. I was talking about timeframes, not planning to re-open or what that would look like. 

Having a plan to re-open things is fine, that's what should be done, and is a valuable use of this time. 

Giving a "drop dead date" right now, or even giving a suggested date of relaxing of restrictions, with the lack of information that exists is beyond asinine. 

It's criminal to relax restrictions before the number of new infections plateaus, and you can test anyone who needs to be tested. We've already gone this far, why make it all pointless? 

Edited April 15, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Harold's Leg Lift]

2 hours ago, Vulture said:

Also, the total mob payroll is around 4 billion, TV revenues around 10 billion. Whether they can afford it shouldn't even be a concern. These guys have been raking it in hand over fist and we have paid for it.

The vast majority of TV revenue is generated by the big market teams.  They can not only afford it they will profit greatly.  The small market teams would get killed.  They will need a lot of help to break even.  

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Of course...you can think and plan, but putting a date on anything at this time is just not realistic. 

Maybe you misunderstood what I was talking about. I was talking about timeframes, not planning to re-open or what that would look like. 

Having a plan to re-open things is fine, that's what should be done, and is a valuable use of this time. 

Giving a "drop dead date" right now, or even giving a suggested date of relaxing of restrictions, with the lack of information that exists is beyond asinine. 

It's criminal to relax restrictions before the number of new infections plateaus, and you can test anyone who needs to be tested. We've already gone this far, why make it all pointless? 

How do you make plans without timeline? That doesn't make a bit of sense. You can't prepare logistics for a project if you have no thought on when it will happen.  

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, Tony said:

Except you....who is totally comfortable talking out of your ass and saying "We won't have any sports in 2020 and probably 2021."

If it's all garbage, then why keep posting the links? I know, I know, we all "misunderstand' you when you try and backtrack off of your ridiculous claims. You can save that excuse this time. 

I'm not even going to bother to respond to this. 

I post the links because I think people are thinking based on what they want, and not what is reality. 

I choose to listen to the scientists. You? 

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

How do you make plans without timeline? That doesn't make a bit of sense. You can't prepare logistics for a project if you have no thought on when it will happen.  

Yes you can. 

You make an initial plan and adjust where necessary as you get more/new data. 

It's like planning an itinerary for a visit to Europe in the summer, but you don't know which summer you're actually going to do it. 

You have a plan for June, July, August, September....etc. It's called being prepared. Then when you are ready to pull the trigger you have everything ready. 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yes you can. 

You make an initial plan and adjust where necessary as you get more/new data. 

It's like planning an itinerary for a visit to Europe in the summer, but you don't know which summer you're actually going to do it. 

You have a plan for June, July, August, September....etc. It's called being prepared. Then when you are ready to pull the trigger you have everything ready. 

 

 

It isn't though. You need to plan for things such as hotel rooms, equipment,  support staff, facilities etc. You can't just show up one day and play professional baseball.  It is nothing like traveling to Europe,  unless you are planning an all exclusive televised trip with 1000 of your closest friends,  complete with all activities, meals, and support. 

[SonofaRoache]

11 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

How do you make plans without timeline? That doesn't make a bit of sense. You can't prepare logistics for a project if you have no thought on when it will happen.  

Yes you can.

[SonofaRoache]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

It isn't though. You need to plan for things such as hotel rooms, equipment,  support staff, facilities etc. You can't just show up one day and play professional baseball.  It is nothing like traveling to Europe,  unless you are planning an all exclusive televised trip with 1000 of your closest friends,  complete with all activities, meals, and support. 

They are doing all of that now, and will offer several different scenarios. They aren't just hoping and praying things will fall into place. They have may schedules and timing ready for baseball beginning every few weeks from mid may to August. 

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, SonofaRoache said:

They are doing all of that now, and will offer several different scenarios. They aren't just hoping and praying things will fall into place. They have may schedules and timing ready for baseball beginning every few weeks from mid may to August. 

Gee. So they made plans with timeline. Go figure. 

[KrankinSox]

48 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm not even going to bother to respond to this. 

I post the links because I think people are thinking based on what they want, and not what is reality. 

I choose to listen to the scientists. You? 

No one here is saying baseball is 100% happening. It's an easy acknowledgement to say that there are a ton of obstacles.  But health officials, government officials, business leaders, sports execs, and the athletes have all made some sort of comment that they are still trying to make it work/think it could work.

Dumping cold water on everybody that is discussing this as a possibility is asinine. Baseball in 2020 is still a possibility. Saying otherwise is wrong.

You said it yourself, no one knows for sure what's going to happen. So who is to say we are definitely not having baseball? Every scientist you claim to be listening to is just another one fitting your argument. There are also health officials saying it's possible. The negativity from so many people is exhausting.