Will There Be a 2020 Season?

[Justinsettle]

20 hours ago, Timmy U said:

My opinion may be colored by the fact that I live in NYC where 20,000 people are dead. The problem isn't the people attending large gatherings "taking their chances," it's providing fuel for the virus to keep spreading. Everyone who gets it, even those who don't get particularly sick, keep the virus alive in the community. If the average person who gets it gives it to two people, you can see how that just delays when this thing is finally over. Not to mention the inevitability of people dying as a result. I would love to have crowds back, but it is a terrible idea. 

Just a note, players didn't die, but people affiliated with the NBA definitely died as did Karl Anthony Townes' mother.

The problem is the only way for it to end is to spread it.  A vaccine will probably never come but if it does it's a long long way from being released.  A "cure" will never happen.  Yes New York got hit hard but literally 86% of the 22k deaths are age 60 and over.  30% are over age 90.  A better strategy is to protect those most at risk of death/ hospitalization and let others spread it.  Crowds are the most efficient way.  

[macsandz]

1 hour ago, Justinsettle said:

The problem is the only way for it to end is to spread it.  A vaccine will probably never come but if it does it's a long long way from being released.  A "cure" will never happen.  Yes New York got hit hard but literally 86% of the 22k deaths are age 60 and over.  30% are over age 90.  A better strategy is to protect those most at risk of death/ hospitalization and let others spread it.  Crowds are the most efficient way.  

This is just wrong and ignorant. The world doesn't need it to "end". The world needs scientifically developed immunity and that comes in the form of a vaccine not this "herd" concept where millions and millions of human beings are infected. 

[Justinsettle]

2 hours ago, macsandz said:

This is just wrong and ignorant. The world doesn't need it to "end". The world needs scientifically developed immunity and that comes in the form of a vaccine not this "herd" concept where millions and millions of human beings are infected. 

What you think is ignorant is science.  Why do you think a SARS vaccine doesn’t exist?  But it’s not wrong and ignorant.  But if a vaccine does come it will be at least a year from now...products don’t get approved that fast.  In vitro...animal and then human testing.  I know the process.  But hey if something comes because it’s rushed through- you can be first in line to try it.  

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, Justinsettle said:

What you think is ignorant is science.  Why do you think a SARS vaccine doesn’t exist?  But it’s not wrong and ignorant.  But if a vaccine does come it will be at least a year from now...products don’t get approved that fast.  In vitro...animal and then human testing.  I know the process.  But hey if something comes because it’s rushed through- you can be first in line to try it.  

Lack of funding and interest. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/scientists-were-close-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091

[greg775]

4 hours ago, macsandz said:

This is just wrong and ignorant. The world doesn't need it to "end". The world needs scientifically developed immunity and that comes in the form of a vaccine not this "herd" concept where millions and millions of human beings are infected. 

I'd like to see more interviews on TV with people young and old asking a sample the honest question: "Do you fear getting corona?" And "Do you want to get corona to get it over with?" The young people really haven't spoken up or been given a voice, one of the two. Just from what I've seen here, the only young people I've seen with masks are working at drive in windows and that of course is mandated. I'd love to know the level of concern of people. I don't trust polls so I'd love to hear from people young and old.

I do see on some message boards of KU sports that many people say they wouldn't think twice about going to a KU football game if they play 'em. I would assume KU basketball would still sell out every game despite the risk.

Edited May 18, 2020 by greg775

[Richie]

18 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Just my opinion, but anyone who is working away from home and around other people right now should get hazard pay. I don't care who it is or how much they're getting paid. 

The players aren't being unreasonable at all. If you have enough money to own a sports team, you can pay your players for playing in empty stadiums. 

The players logic just misses the mark. "We're risking our lives to go back". A) Not really. B) The country is slowly opening up and you have people working in restaurants, factories, etc. working for very little and in a much more hazardous situation. We are wide the hell open here in South Carolina now (with some restrictions on capacity, etc.). Same with quite a few of the southern states. They're trying to help people empathize with them but it just comes off as tone deaf. Your plight is nowhere near what the average American is facing. Yet, so many "typical Americans" would kill to have work, of any kind. Right or wrong... they look bad saying stuff like that and should just shut up for now. Just like the owners have. 

Also, a bit off topic but to do with your post. However, my sister is a doctor and says all essential employees BESIDES healthcare workers getting hazard pay is an okay enough idea. In her eyes, this is why she signed up to be a doctor. Same with nurses. This is why you're there. 

[southsider2k5]

9 hours ago, greg775 said:

I'd like to see more interviews on TV with people young and old asking a sample the honest question: "Do you fear getting corona?" And "Do you want to get corona to get it over with?" The young people really haven't spoken up or been given a voice, one of the two. Just from what I've seen here, the only young people I've seen with masks are working at drive in windows and that of course is mandated. I'd love to know the level of concern of people. I don't trust polls so I'd love to hear from people young and old.

I do see on some message boards of KU sports that many people say they wouldn't think twice about going to a KU football game if they play 'em. I would assume KU basketball would still sell out every game despite the risk.

This is how I know you are fake.  There is no way in real life you believe that people don't want Corona to get over with.

[greg775]

9 hours ago, Richie said:

The players logic just misses the mark.

Also, a bit off topic but to do with your post. However, my sister is a doctor and says all essential employees BESIDES healthcare workers getting hazard pay is an okay enough idea. In her eyes, this is why she signed up to be a doctor. Same with nurses. This is why you're there. 

My brother is a nurse in Chicago and he is the biggest proponent of opening things up and convinced me it was OK to go to Mass Sunday in Ks. Not sure what he's seeing and hearing to be so optimistic. Sports needs to start NOW without fans and the NBA has to decide what its going to do.  If they wait much longer, it's going to be time for training camp before you know it.

Edited May 18, 2020 by greg775

[Timmy U]

21 hours ago, Justinsettle said:

The problem is the only way for it to end is to spread it.  A vaccine will probably never come but if it does it's a long long way from being released.  A "cure" will never happen.  Yes New York got hit hard but literally 86% of the 22k deaths are age 60 and over.  30% are over age 90.  A better strategy is to protect those most at risk of death/ hospitalization and let others spread it.  Crowds are the most efficient way.  

Agree to disagree. There is a reason why literally no countries are trying this strategy.  Here, we are starting to see kids get a Covid-related syndrome that one 14 year old described as “someone literally injecting fire into you.” There is so much we don’t know about this virus that achieving herd immunity by giving it to large groups at once would, in addition to overwhelming the entire health system, likely result in unexpected outcomes for a bunch of people outside of your expendable group.  Hold tight. Good vaccine news today. We may lose the 2020 baseball season, but that is no reason to sacrifice like 2 million people imho.

[Quin]

5 hours ago, greg775 said:

My brother is a nurse in Chicago and he is the biggest proponent of opening things up and convinced me it was OK to go to Mass Sunday in Ks. Not sure what he's seeing and hearing to be so optimistic. Sports needs to start NOW without fans and the NBA has to decide what its going to do.  If they wait much longer, it's going to be time for training camp before you know it.

It's pretty much accepted that next year's NBA season will start late, rumor is Christmas.

[VAfan]

Testing, masks, contact tracing, and social distancing, all while working feverishly on potential treatments and a vaccine. 

We should know from the mortality rate in the US - currently around 6% (90,000 deaths and 1,500,000 confirmed cases) - that there are still a lot of people with Covid who have not been diagnosed. The real mortality rate should be much lower. If it were 3%, that would be 3,000,000 infected. If 2%, 4,500,000 infected, and so on. Now many of those infected have gotten through the infection and are no longer contagious. But you can see from those numbers that there could be a lot of contagious people still out and about.  Through the measures above, the goal is to get the contagion rate well below 1. So that contagious people spread it, on average, to less than 1 other person. If you can keep the rate there, the number of contagious people will continue going down.

The risk is that even if you get the contagious numbers down into the thousands, recall that this whole thing started from ZERO in the US.  So if you ever completely relax the things that keep the contagion rate under 1, you can very quickly see an rapid expansion of contagion. 

This is why we aren't likely to see stadiums full of fans any time this year.  If you can get a handle through testing on the number of contagious people in a defined group - e.g., a baseball team - then you can manage that group to try to keep them Covid-free. If someone slips through the cracks, the  hope is they are caught quickly and are unable to infect many others. Seems possible with baseball because of the distance between players. 

Lastly, no one should be thinking - "I can get Covid and survive, so I don't need to worry."  It's not about YOU. It's about who you might infect. Because for them it might be a death sentence. 

[Richie]

8 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is how I know you are fake.  There is no way in real life you believe that people don't want Corona to get over with.

That's not what he said. Admittedly, he did word it in a confusing fashion. 

[Richie]

8 minutes ago, VAfan said:

 

Lastly, no one should be thinking - "I can get Covid and survive, so I don't need to worry."  It's not about YOU. It's about who you might infect. Because for them it might be a death sentence. 

Just to play devil's advocate - this is where somebody might say "Well, those who are afraid of the virus or live with underlying conditions should stay home". 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

So how are those revenue negotiations going?

[35thstreetswarm]

20 hours ago, Justinsettle said:

What you think is ignorant is science.  Why do you think a SARS vaccine doesn’t exist?  But it’s not wrong and ignorant.  But if a vaccine does come it will be at least a year from now...products don’t get approved that fast.  In vitro...animal and then human testing.  I know the process.  But hey if something comes because it’s rushed through- you can be first in line to try it.  

Nope, he had it right with "ignorant."  What you declare as "science" (good trick, by the way!  Ron Burgundy would be proud) is rejected by the actual scientists who make up the world's epidemiological community.  "Hasten the spread of Coronavirus" is an approach favored by literally no one with credibility.  That is because it is stupid.

[Richie]

22 hours ago, Justinsettle said:

What you think is ignorant is science.  Why do you think a SARS vaccine doesn’t exist?  But it’s not wrong and ignorant.  But if a vaccine does come it will be at least a year from now...products don’t get approved that fast.  In vitro...animal and then human testing.  I know the process.  But hey if something comes because it’s rushed through- you can be first in line to try it.  

A vaccine will probably come late 2020 or very early 2021. 

Also, herd immunity would overwhelm hospitals and be a nightmare. The point of social distancing isn't even to make this go away (most people don't realize this). It's to spread out the spikes so healthcare workers can handle the cases. 

We are ALL going to be exposed to this eventually. Best we can do is spread it out. 

Edited May 19, 2020 by Richie

[caulfield12]

https://sports.yahoo.com/not-believe-mlb-claims-much-130928627.html

They leave out large chunks of revenue MLB and its owners will realize. They include costs, such as spending on the amateur draft, that that have already been deferred to the future. The AP article neglects to mention that the money MLB claims it will lose due to broadcasters holding back broadcast rights money for games not played is, often, money being saved by the same businesses which own teams because a lot of teams have interests in their cable network. Sure, SNY might not be paying the Mets for some games, but every penny SNY saves is a money Fred Wilpon saves.

Which is to say a great deal of what MLB is claiming as a loss can be characterized very differently depending on how one accounts for it. Which is something anyone who is familiar with the history of Major League Baseball’s economic landscape knows has long been a part of the game’s creative approach to finances.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

 

[greg775]

It's hard for me to envision owners making near as much money without fans. I know TV contracts are huge but parking and the cost of tickets you'd think is more than chump change. I realize they are taking a bath this year but for one year of corona I think owners should pay the entire contract of a player. They have the reserves/money to do so. Then if corona sticks around in 2021 reduce the pay.

Also, how are TV stations immune from the economic depression? It seems like their money is limitless. Who is taking out ads now? How does TV have all this money when businesses are trashed by the lockdown and the disease? Will TV money ever run dry?

[Balta1701]

A couple detailed pieces from ESPN about how hard reopening MLB will be and how MLB can't even put themselves in a spot of following CDC recommendations because too many things would be shut down if someone were to test positive.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29186093/the-immensity-mlb-plan-return-daunting-health-safety-protocol

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29175321/how-major-league-baseball-finding-narrow-way-back-field-coronavirus-pandemic

 

 

[Ducksnort]

3 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

 

Welp, they said it was gonna get ugly...

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Yep.  Now MLB is leaking internal emails to one of their many bootlickers and calling it a "smoking gun." These idiots are never going to agree to anything.

[Balta1701]

I still think the safety stuff is a potentially bigger issue than the money stuff, but either way, the timeline is now getting important.

If they want to start in early July, and have 3 weeks of Spring Training, they were looking for what, June 10, June 11 as the starting day? That's about 3 weeks away, and you can't exactly flip the switch and start the league in 1 day. People need time to pack, travel, be tested several times before you can start ST.

So, if there's no movement in the next week, this schedule starts seeming really difficult to pull off.

[Ducksnort]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I still think the safety stuff is a potentially bigger issue than the money stuff, but either way, the timeline is now getting important.

If they want to start in early July, and have 3 weeks of Spring Training, they were looking for what, June 10, June 11 as the starting day? That's about 3 weeks away, and you can't exactly flip the switch and start the league in 1 day. People need time to pack, travel, be tested several times before you can start ST.

So, if there's no movement in the next week, this schedule starts seeming really difficult to pull off.

Yeah. It's time to stop dicking around with this. Either they do it or they don't, and for the sake of the sport it better not be ugly.

[iWiN4PreP]

Yeah, any news you guys get compile here please! I come looking for some information. It is my belief (outside looking in) that the season won't start, that there will be a nasty strike, and things aren't looking good at all for baseball.

Seems like the time table here for July baseball would be insane given what is said above. 

Anyone have opinions?