Will There Be a 2020 Season?

[michelangelosmonkey]

On 5/28/2020 at 12:26 PM, Balta1701 said:

While the players likely aren't at risk of dying nearly as much as the rest of the population, the risk isn't zero, and it's now well known that there are serious complications in a number of cases that we don't really have a good ability to predict.

If, hypothetically, we had worst case scenario and it raced through the whole league - 900 players, nearly all get it. There's a reasonable probability 1 to 2 die (0.1 to 0.2% death rate for healthy, young individuals). Bad enough as it is, but then at least several dozen have long-term organ damage, including kidney and lung damage, and maybe a couple come down with various other post-disease complications like the stuff they've recognized in a few hundred kids so far. That's what Blake Snell was talking about. That's what, a 5% chance that this season, for way less money, dramatically damages you physically and leaves you in really bad shape for the rest of your career. Is that worth the risk?

If you've convinced the players that you have a fully operational testing and safety system, then maybe only ones like Carrasco opt out (leukemia last year), but if you're Mike Trout, would you take a 75% pay cut and risk something that could cost you the rest of your career and even damage your life? If you're someone who's a year away from Free Agency, with no long-term security, wouldn't you be extremely nervous about that?

I just checked CDC website there have been roughly 400 Covid-19 deaths in males between 18-34.  There are about 30 million American men in that age group.  So to say 1-2 might die from this in MLB this year?  To date one out of 75,000 in that age group have died...so more like one baseball player every 80 years.  Of course that one will probably be Luis Robert next month but I still think they should take this enormous risk to entertain us for millions of dollars each.    

[Dick Allen]

Take it for what it’s worth,Heyman got a text from a player who told him chances of a season are next to zero.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I just checked CDC website there have been roughly 400 Covid-19 deaths in males between 18-34.  There are about 30 million American men in that age group.  So to say 1-2 might die from this in MLB this year?  To date one out of 75,000 in that age group have died...so more like one baseball player every 80 years.  Of course that one will probably be Luis Robert next month but I still think they should take this enormous risk to entertain us for millions of dollars each.    

It isn't nearly as simple as that.  You also have to look at how many people have been exposed to get an accurate death rate.  It isn't hard to think that in an athletic situation where you are intimately close with all of your teammates, plus the other team, if one guy gets it, it will explode through clubhouses.  We see it happen with a normal flu for sure.  Baseball is probably the least of the major sports when it comes to contact, but it still has its points where guys come into closer than social distancing from each other.

[chetkincaid]

7 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Take it for what it’s worth,Heyman got a text from a player who told him chances of a season are next to zero.

I believe him. I don't think they play this year.

[Balta1701]

29 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It isn't nearly as simple as that.  You also have to look at how many people have been exposed to get an accurate death rate.  It isn't hard to think that in an athletic situation where you are intimately close with all of your teammates, plus the other team, if one guy gets it, it will explode through clubhouses.  We see it happen with a normal flu for sure.  Baseball is probably the least of the major sports when it comes to contact, but it still has its points where guys come into closer than social distancing from each other.

 

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I just checked CDC website there have been roughly 400 Covid-19 deaths in males between 18-34.  There are about 30 million American men in that age group.  So to say 1-2 might die from this in MLB this year?  To date one out of 75,000 in that age group have died...so more like one baseball player every 80 years.  Of course that one will probably be Luis Robert next month but I still think they should take this enormous risk to entertain us for millions of dollars each.    

Even if they all survive, Blake Snell's point was that a substantially higher, unknown number survive but experience severe, career-threatening complications. A guy isn't playing baseball in the next few years if his lungs are permanently damaged, or he winds up with kidney disease.

Maybe that's a risk you take in some situations, but for a 75% paycut, or a guy who is 1 year away from free agency...there's at least going to be some people who hesitate.

[michelangelosmonkey]

43 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It isn't nearly as simple as that.  You also have to look at how many people have been exposed to get an accurate death rate.  It isn't hard to think that in an athletic situation where you are intimately close with all of your teammates, plus the other team, if one guy gets it, it will explode through clubhouses.  We see it happen with a normal flu for sure.  Baseball is probably the least of the major sports when it comes to contact, but it still has its points where guys come into closer than social distancing from each other.

Neither is it as simple as saying that worst case scenario is 900 will get it and 1-2 will die.  1 out of 450 versus 1 out of 75,000...one is scare tactic the other is boring old stats.  And while random sports teams might be more likely to get it...MLB will be doing constant testing and isolating.  The fear mongering is amazing...same age group you have 15,000 dead a year with drug overdoses versus 400.   We shouldn't let the players go to parties.  

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Neither is it as simple as saying that worst case scenario is 900 will get it and 1-2 will die.  1 out of 450 versus 1 out of 75,000...one is scare tactic the other is boring old stats.  And while random sports teams might be more likely to get it...MLB will be doing constant testing and isolating.  The fear mongering is amazing...same age group you have 15,000 dead a year with drug overdoses versus 400.   We shouldn't let the players go to parties.  

I guess you haven't heard about the list of things that players contracts ban them from doing, have you.

[Balta1701]

30 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Neither is it as simple as saying that worst case scenario is 900 will get it and 1-2 will die.  1 out of 450 versus 1 out of 75,000...one is scare tactic the other is boring old stats.  And while random sports teams might be more likely to get it...MLB will be doing constant testing and isolating.  The fear mongering is amazing...same age group you have 15,000 dead a year with drug overdoses versus 400.   We shouldn't let the players go to parties.  

Where the heck are you getting 1 out of 75000? Are you literally counting the entire 25-34 year old population of the US and assuming they have all been infected?

There are currently 542 deaths in that age range. If the death rate for that age range was 1 out of 75000, then there would have to have been 40,650,000 cases in that age range to produce 542 deaths. 

If the death rate was 0.1%, then there would have had to be 540,000 cases in that age range in this country, and statistically, with 900 players, you'd have a reasonable shot at someone dying in baseball if everyone got it. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Where the heck are you getting 1 out of 75000? Are you literally counting the entire 25-34 year old population of the US and assuming they have all been infected?

There are currently 542 deaths in that age range. If the death rate for that age range was 1 out of 75000, then there would have to have been 40,650,000 cases in that age range to produce 542 deaths. 

If the death rate was 0.1%, then there would have had to be 540,000 cases in that age range in this country, and statistically, with 900 players, you'd have a reasonable shot at someone dying in baseball if everyone got it. 

I'm not including the women in that age range or deaths as there are no women MLB players.  The figure is random 18-34 year old male in USA and one out of 75,000 of them have died from Coronavirus.  I'm not sure why cases matter as to this point we know precisely the number of people that have died and have no idea of the total number of cases as the vast majority show no symptoms.  Further...why would MLB players be MORE likely to get it and die than random American?   Seems probably less likely given their peak fitness...and likely maximum testing and isolation procedures.  So if you want to quibble and say it would be more like one player every 50 years...or 25 years...fine.   

[michelangelosmonkey]

34 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I guess you haven't heard about the list of things that players contracts ban them from doing, have you.

So your position is no baseball players are doing drugs because they have a contract?   

[Balta1701]

11 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I'm not including the women in that age range or deaths as there are no women MLB players.  The figure is random 18-34 year old male in USA and one out of 75,000 of them have died from Coronavirus.  I'm not sure why cases matter as to this point we know precisely the number of people that have died and have no idea of the total number of cases as the vast majority show no symptoms.  Further...why would MLB players be MORE likely to get it and die than random American?   Seems probably less likely given their peak fitness...and likely maximum testing and isolation procedures.  So if you want to quibble and say it would be more like one player every 50 years...or 25 years...fine.   

So you either believe that every single male 25-34 in this country has had the disease or you don't understand the concept of "a 3 hour baseball game being a place where rapid spreading among a bunch of people could be very likely".

[michelangelosmonkey]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So you either believe that every single male 25-34 in this country has had the disease or you don't understand the concept of "a 3 hour baseball game being a place where rapid spreading among a bunch of people could be very likely".

I appreciate you trying to explain to me what I believe and why I am stupid believing it.  To clarify...Coronavirus has been running rampant in the country for months...and so far of 30,000,000 American men between 18-34...400 have died from the disease.  But sure, if you want to believe that random, constantly monitored elite athletes will die at an astounding rate versus random average American male of the same age...it's a somewhat free country.  

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I appreciate you trying to explain to me what I believe and why I am stupid believing it.  To clarify...Coronavirus has been running rampant in the country for months...and so far of 30,000,000 American men between 18-34...400 have died from the disease.  But sure, if you want to believe that random, constantly monitored elite athletes will die at an astounding rate versus random average American male of the same age...it's a somewhat free country.  

How many american men have actually had the disease? Which of these is closer, 100% or 1%?

[michelangelosmonkey]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

How many american men have actually had the disease? Which of these is closer, 100% or 1%?

No one knows.  We do know how many died...400 out of a pool of 30,000,000 age equivalent people.  And of the 400...how many had other medical issues? 399?    

[caulfield12]

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/
 

It’s much closer to 800.  I’ll raise your overall demographic number to 34 million males in age range.

For the entire country, 5% is a pretty good estimate of total penetration...giving you 1.7 million total cases. 800/1.7 million=

0.00047 out of 780 players=0.37 deaths expected

That’s not considering those who actually get sick and end up with chronic or long-term damage to their bodies.

So if we’re looking at a 1.5% hospitalization rate of these positive symptomatic cases, another handful of players would be in the ICU.   

Not to mention their families, team staff, coaches, etc.  But we also have to know from how quickly it spread in the NBA that all these numbers could be much higher.

[southsider2k5]

2 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

So your position is no baseball players are doing drugs because they have a contract?   

I didn't think I would have to explain this part, but MLB tries to restrict dangerous activities to minimize injury and death because players know their contracts can be voided if they get hurt doing forbidden stuff.  See also Cespedes.

In this situation, the very act of playing baseball would be the dangerous activity and be the thing that could cause injury and death by a deadly virus.

[caulfield12]

47 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I didn't think I would have to explain this part, but MLB tries to restrict dangerous activities to minimize injury and death because players know their contracts can be voided if they get hurt doing forbidden stuff.  See also Cespedes.

In this situation, the very act of playing baseball would be the dangerous activity and be the thing that could cause injury and death by a deadly virus.

Or Rowand/Bumgarner.

[michelangelosmonkey]

46 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/
 

It’s much closer to 800.  I’ll raise your overall demographic number to 34 million males in age range.

For the entire country, 5% is a pretty good estimate of total penetration...giving you 1.7 million total cases. 800/1.7 million=

0.00047 out of 780 players=0.37 deaths expected

That’s not considering those who actually get sick and end up with chronic or long-term damage to their bodies.

So if we’re looking at a 1.5% hospitalization rate of these positive symptomatic cases, another handful of players would be in the ICU.   

Not to mention their families, team staff, coaches, etc.  But we also have to know from how quickly it spread in the NBA that all these numbers could be much higher.

I am using the same site so I'm not sure where you get 800.  There are 372 dead males between 25-34.  There are 61 between 15 and 24.  I split it in half because really...not many 15-19 year olds in MLB.  So that cuts your rate down to .18 expected player deaths...or one player every five years.  Though of course the rate would likely be much lower as most of the actually victims are not peak athletes.  So one player every ten years?  Twenty?  Now if you want to close down my parents pickle ball game?  I'm on board because they are both 90 and that is who Covid is killing.   

[Balta1701]

14 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I am using the same site so I'm not sure where you get 800.  There are 372 dead males between 25-34.  There are 61 between 15 and 24.  I split it in half because really...not many 15-19 year olds in MLB.  So that cuts your rate down to .18 expected player deaths...or one player every five years.  Though of course the rate would likely be much lower as most of the actually victims are not peak athletes.  So one player every ten years?  Twenty?  Now if you want to close down my parents pickle ball game?  I'm on board because they are both 90 and that is who Covid is killing.   

And as long as they spend the next 5 years isolated, not playing baseball, and in quarantine, I fully believe that low death rate will continue because the low infection rate will remain.

[Balta1701]

By the way, regarding starting Spring Training in Arizona...major spike in cases there happening right now.

 

https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2020/05/29/covid19-in-arizona-may-29/

[caulfield12]

30 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I am using the same site so I'm not sure where you get 800.  There are 372 dead males between 25-34.  There are 61 between 15 and 24.  I split it in half because really...not many 15-19 year olds in MLB.  So that cuts your rate down to .18 expected player deaths...or one player every five years.  Though of course the rate would likely be much lower as most of the actually victims are not peak athletes.  So one player every ten years?  Twenty?  Now if you want to close down my parents pickle ball game?  I'm on board because they are both 90 and that is who Covid is killing.   

I went with the numbers on the far right hand column.   You’re also leaving out anyone 35-38.

And you’re not taking into consideration average age of coaches, trainers and staff.  Think the likes of Don Cooper, Herm Schneider and Joe Maddon.  Average age of scouts.

So let’s say 450 with a likely undercount of 60%, you’re still much closer to 700 than 400.

The problem is that total amount of infected could be as low as 3%.  That would be, 1020000.   700/102000=0.000686

You’re at a death rate of much closer to 1 every 2 years, .53508.

 

At any rate, there’s someone being paid big bucks to calculate real risk of death, risk of + cases, risk of ICU/hospitalization.  If that opportunity cost isn’t worth the amount of salary fore gone, they will make the decision not to play, and it will be a rational decision from an analytical, cost-benefit analysis.

The owners are idiots to let the NHL and NBA come back...give up the late summer when there’s no live sports programming and then into September/Oct/Nov when there will likely be no competition from college football and the NFL because there will be too many cases and the SEC/ACC (Covid country), Big 12 (Texas/OU), Pac 12 (UC schools out), and Big Ten/ND (flu/covid season combined) will all be out of commission eventually.

Too many players in close contact...it’s going to be by far the highest infection rate of Big 4 sports.

 

Edited May 30, 2020 by caulfield12

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

I went with the numbers on the far right hand column.   You’re also leaving out anyone 35-38.

And you’re not taking into consideration average age of coaches, trainers and staff.  Think the likes of Don Cooper, Herm Schneider and Joe Maddon.  Average age of scouts.

So let’s say 450 with a likely undercount of 60%, you’re still much closer to 700 than 400.

The problem is that total amount of infected could be as low as 3%.  That would be, 1020000.   700/102000=0.000686

You’re at a death rate of much closer to 1 every 2 years, .53508.

 

At any rate, there’s someone being paid big bucks to calculate real risk of death, risk of + cases, risk of ICU/hospitalization.  If that opportunity cost isn’t worth the amount of salary fore gone, they will make the decision not to play, and it will be a rational decision from an analytical, cost-benefit analysis.

The owners are idiots to let the NHL and NBA come back...give up the late summer when there’s no live sports programming and then into September/Oct/Nov when there will likely be no competition from college football and the NFL because there will be too many cases and the SEC/ACC (Covid country), Big 12 (Texas/OU), Pac 12 (UC schools out), and Big Ten/ND (flu/covid season combined) will all be out of commission eventually.

Too many players in close contact...it’s going to be by far the highest infection rate of Big 4 sports.

 

If you want to argue that one or two coaches/owners/trainers will die per year...absolutely agree. It's just not them that are talking about their fear of playing again.  As for "the infection rate could be 3%"?  It could be 9%.  Or 2% or 12%...we just don't know yet.  The only certain number we know is the 400 dead between 20-34 in a potential pool of 30,000,000.  Anyone that is turning down a million dollars given the known risks is either very wealthy or bad at math.  

Still we can agree that the owners are idiots.  This is such a golden opportunity to win casual fans back to baseball.  People are desperate to watch sports again...give the players a risk premium to play...and restart the game.   They could recover that cost over time if they pick up 5% additional fans...instead they will all jump off the cliff together.

[Chisoxfn]

7 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Take it for what it’s worth,Heyman got a text from a player who told him chances of a season are next to zero.

It sucks. We see leagues all over the world starting back up. Leagues in US with momentum and than there is tone deaf baseball (players owners I don’t care...so many people are hurting now and these two groups are fighting over who will be richer of the two and I still don’t buy that any of them is better off by this not happening). 
 
Lock yourself in the room and figure out an outcome. It’s one thing if the sport can’t play because it is unsafe..it is another when it is all about bickering on finances right now. I will have a hard time overcoming how much MLB is crushing itself right now. 

[Chisoxfn]

6 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I guess you haven't heard about the list of things that players contracts ban them from doing, have you.

What list. Players do drugs and there is probably some truth they are more at risk from dying of an od than something else...but of course that is a risk said player is choosing to make and if you don’t chose to do it you have zero risk of oding. 
 

But people have to work. You and I get told we need to go in to the office...we have two choices...we go in or we quit and find a new job. And we don’t have the same asset base said players have had to fall back on (not all players but still most). 

[caulfield12]

39 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

If you want to argue that one or two coaches/owners/trainers will die per year...absolutely agree. It's just not them that are talking about their fear of playing again.  As for "the infection rate could be 3%"?  It could be 9%.  Or 2% or 12%...we just don't know yet.  The only certain number we know is the 400 dead between 20-34 in a potential pool of 30,000,000.  Anyone that is turning down a million dollars given the known risks is either very wealthy or bad at math.  

Still we can agree that the owners are idiots.  This is such a golden opportunity to win casual fans back to baseball.  People are desperate to watch sports again...give the players a risk premium to play...and restart the game.   They could recover that cost over time if they pick up 5% additional fans...instead they will all jump off the cliff together.

Assuming we can actually trust anything coming from the CDC...and take into consideration the the much higher likelihood of it spreading like a wildfire through an entire team or two opposing teams that can’t take place with shelter at home (unless you’re the Cuomos).