Will There Be a 2020 Season?

[ptatc]

3 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

That's not true.  80% of teams will lose money playing games with no fans in the stadium.  

I doubt it. There were about 60 million fans in the MLB last year. Even if you are really generous and say each fan averages 50.00, that's about 3 billion. Which is less than third of the revenue generated. The owners may claim that for negotiations but I doubt it would be more than just a few teams, if any.

[hogan873]

Things are looking better recently with many states, including the hardest hit state of NY, showing signs that the curve is being flattened.  That, along with the latest article about there being baseball "for sure", I'm more optimistic now than I have been since early April when we realized how bad things were going  to get.  The Mayor said she could see baseball in the city this summer, albeit probably without fans.

The response to the "sports" over the weekend, the NFL draft, showed that fans are itching for something to watch.  The MLB, owners, and players will (hopefully) come together and formulate a plan to bring the sport back.  They could have TV to themselves over the summer.

All that being said, I'll continue to be cautiously optimistic.

[ChiSox59]

16 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

That's not true.  80% of teams will lose money playing games with no fans in the stadium.  

Show your work. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

24/30 = 0.8

[SCCWS]

3 hours ago, hogan873 said:

Things are looking better recently with many states, including the hardest hit state of NY, showing signs that the curve is being flattened.  That, along with the latest article about there being baseball "for sure", I'm more optimistic now than I have been since early April when we realized how bad things were going  to get.  The Mayor said she could see baseball in the city this summer, albeit probably without fans.

The response to the "sports" over the weekend, the NFL draft, showed that fans are itching for something to watch.  The MLB, owners, and players will (hopefully) come together and formulate a plan to bring the sport back.  They could have TV to themselves over the summer.

All that being said, I'll continue to be cautiously optimistic.

I think the question, though, is the curve flattening because so many things are shut down. I think the month of May will tell us a lot. As things start opening up, do the numbers still stay flat or do they start going up again like Germany is experiencing.

 But it does seem that MLB, in some form, could be back by mid-late summer.  

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

I think the question, though, is the curve flattening because so many things are shut down. I think the month of May will tell us a lot. As things start opening up, do the numbers still stay flat or do they start going up again like Germany is experiencing.

 But it does seem that MLB, in some form, could be back by mid-late summer.  

The more things open up, the more the curve will accelerate again.  It is a mathematical certainty.  We know that only a small percentage of people have any antibodies, and that is even if a secondary infection isn't possible anyway.  We know lots of actively infected people are still out there, because cases are still going up by 30,000 a day, and the infection window seems to be at least 14-21 days.   We know this is highly infectious by the level of outbreaks that are happening in places like jails and nursing homes where distancing is impossible.  Put more people into situations mimicking the crowding of jails and and watch the outbreaks happen.

Hopefully MLB figures out a way to do this isolated from people so that they don't pick up outbreaks from other places, but this seems pretty impossible to me.

[chitownsportsfan]

I think "cautiously optimistic" is the mindset to have as Hogan does up thread.  Seems like baseball is willing to get creative and that's probably what it will take.  I think the idea of only playing in Florida and AZ is a non-starter for the players but if it's the only option they will probably come around.  Players want to play, no doubt.

[caulfield12]

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2020-04-02/padres-mlb-no-fans-tv-corona-covid
The answer is only the Yankees and the Dodgers would make profit from that broadcasting without fans model.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2020/04/17/the-mlb-stadium-revenue-at-risk-for-every-team-if-games-are-played-without-fans/#978e8d27a355

Not so much for the profits of the 30 teams—player costs would be reduced to a certain degree to account for the loss of stadium revenue—but because the loss of stadium revenue would necessitate a radical change in baseball’s revenue-sharing formula, whereby 48% of net local revenue from the previous season is pooled and shared equally among the 30 teams.

The top five teams in stadium revenue (see full list below) for the 2019 season—the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants—chipped in more than $250 million combined toward revenue sharing, based on the previous season’s revenue. Several teams on the bottom half of the list—like the Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds—each received more than $20 million last season.

 

New York Yankees: $470 million in stadium revenue

Boston Red Sox: $366 million

Chicago Cubs: $321 million

Los Angeles Dodgers: $320 million

San Francisco Giants: $299 million

St. Louis Cardinals: $220 million

Houston Astros: $217 million

 

The White Sox were 23rd at $97 million.   Texas, with their new stadium opening, would arguably have been over $200 million as well.

 

 

 

 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Like I've been saying......

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

24/30 = 0.8

And how do you possibly have the information at hand to state that 24 teams won't make money without fans?  Show that work.

Edited April 28, 2020 by ChiSox59

[ptatc]

18 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

And how do you possibly have the information at hand to state that 24 teams won't make money without fans?  Show that work.

Because the owners said so. Owners creative accounting where they don't include parking or concession sales because they are technically provided by outside vendors who coincidentally split the money with the owners.

i side with the owners more than any other person on this board but even I don't believe the numbers they throw out there during negotiations.

[Vote4Pedro]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2020/04/28/mlb-optimistic-about-starting-season-late-june/3039275001/

interesting division allignments with this potential plan....kinda like it

[SonofaRoache]

If teams will be traveling for games, then what is the point of 3 10 team divisions? Why not use 6 5 team divisions and the two divisions can play one another and their own. Those 2 divisions should be balanced to remain competitive. 

Division 1

Twins

Brewers

White Sox

Reds

Royals

 

Division 2

Cardinals

Indians

Cubs

Pirates

Tigers 

[hogan873]

8 hours ago, HahnsKiddieTable said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2020/04/28/mlb-optimistic-about-starting-season-late-june/3039275001/

interesting division allignments with this potential plan....kinda like it

This seems like the best option yet.  Having clubs play in their home parks would be much more desirable for the players.  And on the off chance that fans are allowed to start attending eventually, it's easier to work with that scenario at home vs. in neutral sites of spring training facilities.

[SonofaRoache]

17 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

This seems like the best option yet.  Having clubs play in their home parks would be much more desirable for the players.  And on the off chance that fans are allowed to start attending eventually, it's easier to work with that scenario at home vs. in neutral sites of spring training facilities.

I think it is great for fans too. It will give them a sense of normalcy. I also think they should CGI fans into the stands if you are watching the game on tv. 

[macsandz]

On 4/28/2020 at 11:24 AM, SCCWS said:

I think the question, though, is the curve flattening because so many things are shut down. I think the month of May will tell us a lot. As things start opening up, do the numbers still stay flat or do they start going up again like Germany is experiencing.

 But it does seem that MLB, in some form, could be back by mid-late summer.  

Based on the reckless and selfish behavior of a significant part of the US population that May spread is gonna boomerang us right back into a lockdown. 

[Soxsi75]

On 4/28/2020 at 11:24 AM, SCCWS said:

I think the question, though, is the curve flattening because so many things are shut down. I think the month of May will tell us a lot. As things start opening up, do the numbers still stay flat or do they start going up again like Germany is experiencing.

 But it does seem that MLB, in some form, could be back by mid-late summer.  

If it's late Summer, then just cancel the season. You can't have a 2 month season without everything being a mockery. 

 

 

18 hours ago, HahnsKiddieTable said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2020/04/28/mlb-optimistic-about-starting-season-late-june/3039275001/

interesting division allignments with this potential plan....kinda like it

 

[Soxsi75]

"I think the question, though, is the curve flattening because so many things are shut down. I think the month of May will tell us a lot. As things start opening up, do the numbers still stay flat or do they start going up again like Germany is experiencing.

 But it does seem that MLB, in some form, could be back by mid-late summer."

 

  If it's late Summer, then just cancel the season. You can't have a 2 month season without everything being a mockery. 

[flavum]

5 minutes ago, Soxsi75 said:

  If it's late Summer, then just cancel the season. You can't have a 2 month season without everything being a mockery. 

It’s always going to be an Asterisk season, no matter what they do. If they can play something that’s 3-4 months including the postseason-in major league parks, then I think it’s worth it. 

[Soxsi75]

4 minutes ago, flavum said:

It’s always going to be an Asterisk season, no matter what they do. If they can play something that’s 3-4 months including the postseason-in major league parks, then I think it’s worth it. 

3-4 months yes, I agree.  2 months? Which is what it would be if they start in late Summer? That would be a joke. You can't have a 55-60 game season. 

[flavum]

9 minutes ago, Soxsi75 said:

3-4 months yes, I agree.  2 months? Which is what it would be if they start in late Summer? That would be a joke. You can't have a 55-60 game season. 

Eh, I think they could. More importantly, it’s just the calendar. If they can’t get to a 3-4 week training period starting in early July, then it’s probably the time to call it a lost year.

[Soxsi75]

1 minute ago, flavum said:

Eh, I think they could. More importantly, it’s just the calendar. If they can’t get to a 3-4 week training period starting in early July, then it’s probably the time to call it a lost year.

Agreed. But I'm still optimistic they can get a 3-4 week "spring" training some time in June and start in July. That gives them July, August, September, and carry the regular season into October and start the playoffs around mid October. The playoffs will then run into November. Now, is to cold to play baseball in November?  Yeah. But at the same time, is it to cold to play baseball in March which is when they now start the regular season? Again, yeah. So there shouldn't be a reason they can't do it this way. 

 

[Flash]

So if no season, WS say goodbye to Edwin Encarnacion, Kelvin Herrera, Alex Colome, James McCann and possibly Gio Gonzalez. With Gonzalez, Encarnacion and Herrera never logging an inning as a WS and any McCann (and possibly Colome) trade value mitigated. Oh well

 

[fathom]

1 hour ago, Flash said:

So if no season, WS say goodbye to Edwin Encarnacion, Kelvin Herrera, Alex Colome, James McCann and possibly Gio Gonzalez. With Gonzalez, Encarnacion and Herrera never logging an inning as a WS and any McCann (and possibly Colome) trade value mitigated. Oh well

 

That’s probably just as good in terms of minimal loss as any team in the majors. 

[Flash]

2 hours ago, fathom said:

That’s probably just as good in terms of minimal loss as any team in the majors. 

True that. Dodgers can't be happy about Betts trade and stand to lose Pederson, others. Lots of interesting talent will be hitting the market. Will be interesting to see how teams play it.