Will There Be a 2020 Season?

[tray]

The issues in formulating a partial season at this point and in this environment are complex to say the least. There is a lot more to it than player salaries, team owner profit, making up  weather delays in an abbreviated schedule, various insurance issues,  back-up plans in case of a Covid resurgence, making certain mlb  stadiums are staffed and safe, etc..   I don't blame anyone in mlb for the situation we are in. 

[hogan873]

5 hours ago, tray said:

The issues in formulating a partial season at this point and in this environment are complex to say the least. There is a lot more to it than player salaries, team owner profit, making up  weather delays in an abbreviated schedule, various insurance issues,  back-up plans in case of a Covid resurgence, making certain mlb  stadiums are staffed and safe, etc..   I don't blame anyone in mlb for the situation we are in. 

There's plenty of blame.  No one is to blame for the virus, but the owners, players, and Manfred have handled getting back on the field very poorly.  And their bickering has been public since it started.  The most important thing they should be concerned about is the health and safety of the players and staff.  Everything else should be secondary.  It's all important, but they look like a bunch of buffoons while other sports leagues are setting dates for returning and moving forward.

As I saw in an article yesterday, MLB has run out of feet to shoot itself in and has moved on to vital organs.

[StrangeSox]

nationalize all teams and start tomorrow, imo

[Jack Parkman]

18 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

If we can't do this season without fans, then there needs to be a widely available and distributed vaccine next year or next year's season is even less likely.

^^^^^^

Some people think one is being a Negative Nancy when you say that Covid isn't going away. I hate to burst your bubble, but that's reality. Anyone who thinks that Covid is going to magically disappear by March 2021 is living in a world with unicorns farting rainbows. 

I've maintained this position all along, that the following are true:

1. Covid isn't going away until there's a vaccine

2. A safe vaccine isn't going to be around until the 2nd half of 2023 at the earliest. 
 

Prepare yourselves, folks. This is life until there is a vaccine. There are also no guarantees that a safe vaccine will exist that quickly either. The 2020s could be known as the "covid decade" because it might take that long before we get a vaccine. 

I also shudder to think what would happen if a vaccine isn't found. 

We have far worse problems in the world than whether or not sports come back. 

Any society that values personal freedoms is in for a round of deep shit over the next 3-5 years at least. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

^^^^^^

Some people think one is being a Negative Nancy when you say that Covid isn't going away anytime soon. I hate to burst your bubble, but that's reality. Anyone who thinks that Covid is going to magically disappear by March 2021 is living in a world with unicorns farting rainbows. 

I've maintained this position all along, that the following are true:

1. Covid isn't going away until there's a vaccine

2. A safe vaccine isn't going to be around until the 2nd half of 2023 at the earliest. 
 

Prepare yourselves, folks. This is life until there is a vaccine. There are also no guarantees that a safe vaccine will exist that quickly either. The 2020s could be known as the "covid decade" because it might take that long before we get a vaccine. 

With the sheer number of people working on it, I think there's a real good chance there is one that is available and safe on a 6-9 month timescale, and even if it doesn't provide perfect immunity it provides some and buys time. The hurdle of finding enough people to test is being accomplished easily because everyone wants to be a part of the test if they can.

Whether any specific country can produce and distribute enough to get a large fraction of its citizens covered is a different question.

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

With the sheer number of people working on it, I think there's a real good chance there is one that is available and safe on a 6-9 month timescale, and even if it doesn't provide perfect immunity it provides some and buys time. The hurdle of finding enough people to test is being accomplished easily because everyone wants to be a part of the test if they can.

Whether any specific country can produce and distribute enough to get a large fraction of its citizens covered is a different question.

One might be available, but the record for releasing a safe vaccine is 4 years. I think anything short of three years is wildly optimistic, even with the entire world working on it. They're going to run into issues, that's for sure. I highly doubt that they'll somehow get a safe vaccine by the end of 2021. If they do, it's more dumb luck than anything else. 

With a vaccine that is basically going to be required by law, you better be damn sure it's safe before releasing it to the public. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

25 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

^^^^^^

Some people think one is being a Negative Nancy when you say that Covid isn't going away. I hate to burst your bubble, but that's reality. Anyone who thinks that Covid is going to magically disappear by March 2021 is living in a world with unicorns farting rainbows. 

I've maintained this position all along, that the following are true:

1. Covid isn't going away until there's a vaccine

2. A safe vaccine isn't going to be around until the 2nd half of 2023 at the earliest. 
 

Prepare yourselves, folks. This is life until there is a vaccine. There are also no guarantees that a safe vaccine will exist that quickly either. The 2020s could be known as the "covid decade" because it might take that long before we get a vaccine. 

I also shudder to think what would happen if a vaccine isn't found. 

We have far worse problems in the world than whether or not sports come back. 

Any society that values personal freedoms is in for a round of deep shit over the next 3-5 years at least. 

I am constantly amazed at your ability to turn any small bit of bad news into the end of the world.  The amount of assumptions in here to create a certain narrative is staggering.

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I am constantly amazed at your ability to turn any small bit of bad news into the end of the world.  The amount of assumptions in here to create a certain narrative is staggering.

I'm constantly amazed by people's inability to accept reality. The sooner people accept it, the better off we'll be as a society. 

All of the assumptions I made are based on historical data. 

I don't think anything I said is unreasonable at all. 

Thinking positively is good for mental health. Being delusional isn't. 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/why-coronavirus-vaccine-could-take-way-longer-than-a-year/

The experts are saying anything less than 3 years is incredibly optimistic. And 3 years would still break records. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[ChiSoxFanMike]

32 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

^^^^^^

Some people think one is being a Negative Nancy when you say that Covid isn't going away. I hate to burst your bubble, but that's reality. Anyone who thinks that Covid is going to magically disappear by March 2021 is living in a world with unicorns farting rainbows. 

I've maintained this position all along, that the following are true:

1. Covid isn't going away until there's a vaccine

2. A safe vaccine isn't going to be around until the 2nd half of 2023 at the earliest. 
 

Prepare yourselves, folks. This is life until there is a vaccine. There are also no guarantees that a safe vaccine will exist that quickly either. The 2020s could be known as the "covid decade" because it might take that long before we get a vaccine. 

I also shudder to think what would happen if a vaccine isn't found. 

We have far worse problems in the world than whether or not sports come back. 

Any society that values personal freedoms is in for a round of deep shit over the next 3-5 years at least. 

2nd half of 2023? Where did you come up with that arbitrary date? 

[Jack Parkman]

6 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

2nd half of 2023? Where did you come up with that arbitrary date? 

Just based on the historical fact that even if they did it in 3.5 years it would set a record. 

If you go by equaling the fastest  safe vaccine ever produced, that would put us in early 2024. 

Again, if you're going to require everyone to be vaccinated you better be damn sure it's safe.

It's an educated guess that if they have the whole world working on it to go through the proper safety protocols it would be widely available sometime in 2023. Late 2023 is a conservative best case scenario. If you wanted to be aggresively optimistic, you might get late 2022. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

14 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm constantly amazed by people's inability to accept reality. The sooner people accept it, the better off we'll be as a society. 

All of the assumptions I made are based on historical data. 

I don't think anything I said is unreasonable at all. 

Thinking positively is good for mental health. Being delusional isn't. 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/why-coronavirus-vaccine-could-take-way-longer-than-a-year/

The experts are saying anything less than 3 years is incredibly optimistic. And 3 years would still break records. 

You just wrote off an entire decade, and that is thinking positive?  lol, no.  Try again man.

[Jack Parkman]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

You just wrote off an entire decade, and that is thinking positive?  lol, no.  Try again man.

I didn't...I said it was a distinct possibility. There's a difference. 

NIH was getting close to a SARS vaccine in 2016 but got their funding pulled.  It took them 13 years (!!!!!!!) to get that far. 

Most vaccines take a decade or more to develop. The record is four years. The upside is that we have the entire world working on it, so that might allow us to beat the record. There's also a distinct possibility it could take an average time frame, which is 8-12 years. It's also possible that we can't do it. 

Being realistic=/= being negative. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

I didn't...I said it was a distinct possibility. There's a difference. 

They were getting close to a SARS vaccine in 2016 but got their funding pulled.  It took them 13 years (!!!!!!!) to get that far. 

Most vaccines take a decade or more to develop. The record is four years. The upside is that we have the entire world working on it, so that might allow us to beat the record. There's also a distinct possibility it could take a normal time frame, which is 8-12 years. 

Being realistic=/= being negative. 

I pity your Jump to Conclusions mat.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

I pity your Jump to Conclusions mat.

I like to base my opinions on evidence. You? 

I don't like to base my opinions on assumptions that we can do something that has never been done in human history. 

It took a decade to get to the moon, for example when doing something that's never been done. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I like to base my opinions on evidence. You? 

I have read your posts for way too long to believe that. This is the classic overreact part of the overreact then apologize cycle.  Take a breath man. 

[Jack Parkman]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I have read your posts for way too long to believe that. This is the classic overreact part of the overreact then apologize cycle.  Take a breath man. 

I've done my research on this subject, provided links, etc. I don't think I'm overreacting at all. 

Would I call the majority of posters on here delusional? No, but I do think most are overly optimistic about covid. I get that it helps as a coping mechanism. I really do.(I know all about coping mechanisms) You're not operating within the bounds of reality. 

Do I think that we could beat the record for this one? Absolutely. 

Do I think we're going to get a safe vaccine in 18-24 months? No, because the evidence points to it taking longer than that. Somewhere between 30-48 months I think is a realistic goal, and it will still set or match the record. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[35thstreetswarm]

It's safe to say that a) everyone can imagine the worst-case COVID scenario; and b) everyone understands (and frankly assumes) you believe it will come to pass.  There's really no need to rehash the position over another dozen+ posts.  That's not illuminating - it's venting.

 

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

It's safe to say that a) everyone can imagine the worst-case COVID scenario; and b) everyone understands (and frankly assumes) you believe it will come to pass.  There's really no need to rehash the position over another dozen+ posts.  That's not illuminating - it's venting.

 

This.  Walking away.

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, 35thstreetswarm said:

It's safe to say that a) everyone can imagine the worst-case COVID scenario; and b) everyone understands (and frankly assumes) you believe it will come to pass.  There's really no need to rehash the position over another dozen+ posts.  That's not illuminating - it's venting.

 

No, I don't think that the worst case scenario comes to pass. The worst case scenario is that a vaccine remains elusive for decades, or centuries, and that it wreaks havoc on humanity for a long time. 

I think we'll get one by the end of this decade, but not before late 2022. (evidence based) 

[KrankinSox]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I've done my research on this subject, provided links, etc. I don't think I'm overreacting at all. 

Would I call the majority of posters on here delusional? No, but I do think most are overly optimistic about covid. I get that it helps as a coping mechanism. I really do. But you're not operating within the bounds of reality. 

Do I think that we could beat the record for this one? Absolutely. 

Do I think we're going to get a safe vaccine in 18-24 months? No, because the evidence points to it taking longer than that. Somewhere between 30-42 months I think is a realistic goal. 

They're playing soccer in England and baseball in Korea.  England's death rate far exceeds the US on a per capita basis.  Every major American sport has a return to play plan already in motion except MLB. MLB is the outlier because of $ negotiations.  There are your fucking facts.

Edited June 17, 2020 by KrankinSox

[Jack Parkman]

8 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

They're playing soccer in England and baseball in Korea.  England's death rate far exceed's the US on a per capita basis.  Every major American sport has a return to play plan already in motion except MLB. MLB is the outlier because of $ negotiations.  There are your fucking facts.

Do they have fans or not? 

MLB owners seem vehemently opposed to operating without fans in the stands. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[KrankinSox]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Do they have fans or not? 

MLB owners seem vehemently opposed to operating without fans in the stands. 

MLB owners seem vehemently opposed to losing a substantial amount of money.  The negotiations have gotten ugly and its fair to criticize the owners and Manfred for how bad this has gotten. They're going to play baseball this season. Everything you read is part of the negotiation.

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

MLB owners seem vehemently opposed to losing a substantial amount of money.  The negotiations have gotten ugly and its fair to criticize the owners and Manfred for how bad this has gotten. They're going to play baseball this season. Everything you read is part of the negotiation.

It's not fair to compare both 

a) soccer to baseball, as the ball is not touched by a player's hands other than by the goalie, who wears gloves or when the ball goes out of bounds. 

at least one player(the pitcher) touches the ball with his hands every play in baseball. 

b) South Korea's situation vs the US situation, as SK has been one of the absolute best countries in the world at keeping covid under control. 

For example, the NPB just had to shut down because players tested positive. They still haven't started a season in Japan yet. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[sin city sox fan]

COViD is not going away anytime soon.    However, it could decrease to such low levels that life could return to normal if everyone would wear a mask for 6 months.   Since it’s not happening, I think Jack is closer to being right than being wrong.   Sporting events will not happen in front of a live audience for 2-3 years minimum.    It’s a sad state of affairs but we have to look at science for the answers.

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, sin city sox fan said:

COViD is not going away anytime soon.    However, it could decrease to such low levels that life could return to normal if everyone would wear a mask for 6 months.   Since it’s not happening, I think Jack is closer to being right than being wrong.   Sporting events will not happen in front of a live audience for 2-3 years minimum.    It’s a sad state of affairs but we have to look at science for the answers.

And I don't get why people refuse to wear masks. It's easy, and it shows others you actually give a fuck about something other than yourself.