Will There Be a 2020 Season?

[Balta1701]

13 minutes ago, ScooterMcGee said:

Well, the players obviously want to take the risk, otherwise I think the season would be cancelled had the majority of them not want to risk it. I would imagine the players association would have had those conversations about various "what-if" scenarios. So any player that is going to play, is willingly taking that risk of the first scenario you laid out. They can sit out if they want, and I would imagine the coaches who don't want to risk it would as well. I don't think anyone would be penalized for it, other than no pay.

And as for the 2nd scenario, I suppose that could happen,  but if it hasn't happened by the time the postseason comes around, it probably won't, as those guys have been breathing the same air for 2 months already.

The "Breathing the same air" thing might be reasonable if they were doing a "bubble" like the NBA, but they're not.

Her'es the likely scenario we'll probably see. If people are getting exposed to families, if people are traveling, then it'll come in random bursts, just like we see right now with several Phillies being the first ones to get sick. You might go a week or two where no one gets it, then one player gets it, tests positive 3 days later, and by then they've already exposed 2 full ballclubs. So you quarantine them for 2 weeks using the backup players, and it turns out only 3 people have actually gotten it from them, so you quarantined a bunch of players who didn't get it, affected the season results, but then 26 of your regular 30 players are still able to be infected the next time someone gets it.

The results of the regular season may well come down to which teams have the most/fewest outbreaks. 

[Ducksnort]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The "Breathing the same air" thing might be reasonable if they were doing a "bubble" like the NBA, but they're not.

Her'es the likely scenario we'll probably see. If people are getting exposed to families, if people are traveling, then it'll come in random bursts, just like we see right now with several Phillies being the first ones to get sick. You might go a week or two where no one gets it, then one player gets it, tests positive 3 days later, and by then they've already exposed 2 full ballclubs. So you quarantine them for 2 weeks using the backup players, and it turns out only 3 people have actually gotten it from them, so you quarantined a bunch of players who didn't get it, affected the season results, but then 26 of your regular 30 players are still able to be infected the next time someone gets it.

The results of the regular season may well come down to which teams have the most/fewest outbreaks. 

I don't disagree with you. All I'm saying is, if the players and owners didn't think of these things before they started squabbling about money, and all of a sudden those kinds of things related to the virus starts happening and it takes them by surprise, then there is some serious, serious incompetent leadership going on all over the sport. 

We knew in the beginning what the risks were. The risks were very likely to happen. They are beginning to happen. They will happen. It doesn't seem to be stopping the season from happening, and it shouldn't be coming as a surprise to anyone.

I'm going off the premise that the union and owners created a plan that details what happens when player(s) get it (maybe it is foolish of me to assume that), and they decided to go ahead with negotiations for a season. 

If they didn't plan for it, then why the hell have they been playing this money game for the last few months?

[Balta1701]

30 minutes ago, ScooterMcGee said:

I don't disagree with you. All I'm saying is, if the players and owners didn't think of these things before they started squabbling about money, and all of a sudden those kinds of things related to the virus starts happening and it takes them by surprise, then there is some serious, serious incompetent leadership going on all over the sport. 

We knew in the beginning what the risks were. The risks were very likely to happen. They are beginning to happen. They will happen. It doesn't seem to be stopping the season from happening, and it shouldn't be coming as a surprise to anyone.

I'm going off the premise that the union and owners created a plan that details what happens when player(s) get it (maybe it is foolish of me to assume that), and they decided to go ahead with negotiations for a season. 

If they didn't plan for it, then why the hell have they been playing this money game for the last few months?

We have 20+ states that now have rising cases because they stuck their fingers in their ears and said "EVERYTHING'S GOING TO BE FINE I CAN'T HEAR YOU". Wishful thinking is running rampant.  This is no different. They're going to try, and then they're going to have to figure out what to do when they get hit with outbreak after outbreak because it's so prevalent in this country. Who knows, they may decide they're ok with it as they go along, generally the athletes themselves are all in the "low to moderate risk age range". 

I will give the NBA some credit as a true "bubble" may still work. 

[MiddleCoastBias]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

It's going to happen, but there's some huge problems if and when it does. You've got coaches and staff who are high risk, and probably some players who are too. We know that even among the so-called healthy groups, people die, or people get very sick. Pick a player on the White Sox, imagine them winding up on a ventilator 25 games into the season, how does that do for team morale or the season?

After a team seeing what happened with Danny Farquhar and to a seemingly healthy person, this should be a cause for concern that even athletes can be at risk for pre-existing conditions and not even know it.

[pcq]

Orlando now has a 15% infection rate. Yet we have people proclaiming no one will force them to wear a mask. Not sounding good. Watch out for Tulsa. 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, pcq said:

Orlando now has a 15% infection rate. Yet we have people proclaiming no one will force them to wear a mask. Not sounding good. Watch out for Tulsa. 

Huh? Orlando's population is nearly 300,000, so you're telling me 45,000 people have it right now in that city? 

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Huh? Orlando's population is nearly 300,000, so you're telling me 45,000 people have it right now in that city? 

One of you is misunderstanding. I think he means that 15% of those tested are coming back positive. 

Edited June 19, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

One of you is misunderstanding. I think he means that 15% of those tested are coming back positive. 

Gotcha. 

[caulfield12]

Well, since the Germans have been way ahead on this, why aren’t we following their Bundesliga or even the English Premier League protocols?...inarguably more direct physical contact in that sport.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

15 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, since the Germans have been way ahead on this, why aren’t we following their Bundesliga or even the English Premier League protocols?...inarguably more direct physical contact in that sport.

 

Because their citizens listened to experts and getting sports back is the reward. We haven't done that in this country. 

[Balta1701]

10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, since the Germans have been way ahead on this, why aren’t we following their Bundesliga or even the English Premier League protocols?...inarguably more direct physical contact in that sport.

 

Because the big difference remains case numbers. Germany, population 80 million, has fewer cases per day right now than the county where Houston sits, population 4.7 million. 

They also had one period where basically an entire team was under quarantine for >2 weeks. 

[pcq]

52 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Huh? Orlando's population is nearly 300,000, so you're telling me 45,000 people have it right now in that city? 

15% of those tested.

[Balta1701]

15 minutes ago, pcq said:

15% of those tested.

I'd call that a 15% positive test rate, not a 15% infection rate, but anyway my bad on misunderstanding.

[pcq]

If these b****es are not going to play I want to see a prospect league starting tomorrow. 

[Jerksticks]

21 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I'd call that a 15% positive test rate, not a 15% infection rate, but anyway my bad on misunderstanding.

Feel free to PM me for my opinion on infection rates 

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Feel free to PM me for my opinion on infection rates 

LOL, no.

 

[Baker]

4 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

He's good for the sport. He gets players what they're worth. 

Would you rather have $50M-$100M guaranteed, or flip a coin for $200M or bust with Boras?  His refusal to extend is bad money management for his clients. I wouldn’t sign with him. 

[poppysox]

3 minutes ago, Baker said:

Would you rather have $50M-$100M guaranteed, or flip a coin for $200M or bust with Boras?  His refusal to extend is bad money management for his clients. I wouldn’t sign with him. 

I agree with you.  Negotiations need to end with both parties feeling they found a reasonable compromise.

[Ozzie’s Cuban Cigar]

More testing = More Positives even on those “low risk” young healthy players.  

More testing is Positive for the owners, many of whom may not want a season at this point.

[Texsox]

1 hour ago, Baker said:

Would you rather have $50M-$100M guaranteed, or flip a coin for $200M or bust with Boras?  His refusal to extend is bad money management for his clients. I wouldn’t sign with him. 

So you believe if you sign with Boras you don't have any say in what he negotiates for you? You just go off to the Bahamas and wait for him to tell you where you are playing and for how much? He works for you. You are paying him so you look good. He does your dirty work.

Let's walk through this using your example.

"I want $100M"

"No. If you sign with me we're going for $200M or bust and you're out of the league. No middle ground"

That's not how it goes.

If I'm trying for $100M I want a guy that has negotiated a lot contracts at that level. Not some mid tier lawyer who will shit his pants at that number and get me $75M. 

 

[Baker]

Carlos Rodon’s career is in real jeopardy with all the injuries he has had. He probably could have gotten $100M ,  4 years ago on an extension. Sure Boras works for him and sure Boras has been pumping him up for a big payday in free agency. Boras can afford a few busts, whereas the individual could lose generational wealth. 

Edited June 20, 2020 by Baker

[mqr]

we can argue economics all we want. The season is flat out not happening. 

[Texsox]

33 minutes ago, Baker said:

Carlos Rodon’s career is in real jeopardy with all the injuries he has had. He probably could have gotten $100M ,  4 years ago on an extension. Sure Boras works for him and sure Boras has been pumping him up for a big payday in free agency. Boras can afford a few busts, whereas the individual could lose generational wealth. 

So you believe a different agent could have gotten him a bigger payday? How? 

[caulfield12]

19 minutes ago, mqr said:

we can argue economics all we want. The season is flat out not happening. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6

According to this article, based on a Chinese study among the population infected the earliest with Covid-19, any immunity gained via antibodies may only last 2-3 months.

Comparatively, the figure for SARS is 1 year and for MERS 34 months.

If this initial research is correct, the theoretical principle of 70-80% 'herd immunity' is almost pointless, and even a vaccine may be of limited short term value, since the purpose of a vaccine is to have the body’s own immune system produce antibodies.

The negative implications of this early research are staggering...not just for the 2020 baseball season.
 

 

 

Florida and Arizona are particularly worrying, Dr. Amesh A. Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, tells Yahoo Life. He describes these areas as “new hot spots.”

As of Friday morning, data from COVID Exit Strategy found that Florida had a 141 percent increase in positive cases over the past 14 days. At the same time, there is low availability of intensive care unit beds in the state. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other public health officials in the state have repeatedly come under fire for the handling of the state’s response to the virus, both for delayed stay-at-home ordersand reopening beaches in April.

In Arizona, where a stay-at-home order expired a month ago, cases have also increased 108 percent over the past 14 days, according to COVID Exit Strategy data. ICU bed use and ER visits have hit new highs for the state because of COVID-19 cases, according to the Arizona Republic.

 

 

Edited June 20, 2020 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, mqr said:

we can argue economics all we want. The season is flat out not happening. 

I guarantee a season at least gets kicked off.