FS: Draft Profile-Garrett Crochet LHP Tennessee

[Y2Jimmy0]

Here is the 2nd draft profile in our series. It covers Tennessee LHP Garrett Crochet: https://www.futuresox.com/2020/05/07/2020-draft-preview-garrett-crochet-lhp/

[Jack Parkman]

This is my guy. Boom or bust, but if he hits you have Chris Sale part deux. 

[HollywoodTim]

I would be very happy with this pick.  I also love it when there is a downside as a late inning reliever.  Remember how Miami liked the Tigers offer for Miguel Cabrera better than the Sox offer.  The Sox offer was a great trade that would have helped the Marlins a lot.  The Tigers guys were all busts until Miller finally hit as a reliever, after having been DFAd and passed around a bunch of times.  But the point is that there was some pedigree and major upside with the Tigers guys and that is why they got Cabrera.  I think there is a nice chance with a pick like this that he either works out as a top-end starter, or as a top-end reliever, or as the centerpiece to a difference maker.  I also generally trust this organization with pitching prospects in the draft far more than with hitters.

[Quin]

16 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

This is my guy. Boom or bust, but if he hits you have Chris Sale part deux. 

Let's pump the breaks on comparing him to a hall of famer. If we're going with Sox comps, I'd take peak Rodon, minus injuries, which is great thing to have. 

I think Crochet is the best fit for depth and window, but you don't want to draft fit. So ultimately it comes to scouts thinking he'll actually hit a ceiling or not. But I'd love this dude in the system.

Also, they could sell White Sox crochet blankets, which would be dope.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

14 hours ago, HollywoodTim said:

I would be very happy with this pick.  I also love it when there is a downside as a late inning reliever.  Remember how Miami liked the Tigers offer for Miguel Cabrera better than the Sox offer.  The Sox offer was a great trade that would have helped the Marlins a lot.  The Tigers guys were all busts until Miller finally hit as a reliever, after having been DFAd and passed around a bunch of times.  But the point is that there was some pedigree and major upside with the Tigers guys and that is why they got Cabrera.  I think there is a nice chance with a pick like this that he either works out as a top-end starter, or as a top-end reliever, or as the centerpiece to a difference maker.  I also generally trust this organization with pitching prospects in the draft far more than with hitters.

What was the Sox offer?  I was a little lad then

[Quin]

30 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

What was the Sox offer?  I was a little lad then

Going back to MLB Trade Rumors

Gio Gonzalez, Josh Fields, Lance Broadway, and then I do remember one of Floyd/Danks would have been needed to seal the deal. Maybe Floyd/Danks was in place of Gio, but I remember that was on the table and the Marlins took Miller/Maybin. 

Gio and Floyd/Danks alone blows it out the water.

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, Quin said:

Going back to MLB Trade Rumors

Gio Gonzalez, Josh Fields, Lance Broadway, and then I do remember one of Floyd/Danks would have been needed to seal the deal. Maybe Floyd/Danks was in place of Gio, but I remember that was on the table and the Marlins took Miller/Maybin. 

Gio and Floyd/Danks alone blows it out the water.

The big difference was Detroit took on the Willis contract too.

[bmags]

oh no is peak rodon actually a known thing

[HollywoodTim]

The final offer for Cabrera was Fields + Danks + Gio Gonzalez + Sweeney from the Sox for Cabrera.  The Tigers IIRC sent 6 prospects headlined by Miller, Maybin, and a 100mph reliever.  

I don't buy the Willis contract stuff.  That's all unfounded speculation.  Willis at the time had IIRC 1 year left.  Detroit not only took him, they extended him.  If Miami wanted to dump him they could have, and there was no reason for Detroit to extend him if he was really bad.  Willis had a down year but it wasn't until after the extension that he really tanked.

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, HollywoodTim said:

The final offer for Cabrera was Fields + Danks + Gio Gonzalez + Sweeney from the Sox for Cabrera.  The Tigers IIRC sent 6 prospects headlined by Miller, Maybin, and a 100mph reliever.  

I don't buy the Willis contract stuff.  That's all unfounded speculation.  Willis at the time had IIRC 1 year left.  Detroit not only took him, they extended him.  If Miami wanted to dump him they could have, and there was no reason for Detroit to extend him if he was really bad.  Willis had a down year but it wasn't until after the extension that he really tanked.

You don't have to buy it.  It was widely reported that the Tigers being willing to take on the contract, while the White Sox would not, was the difference in what deal they accepted.  It allowed the Marlins two move two big contracts at at they wanted to fire up cash.

[HollywoodTim]

I get that the Sox would not want to take on more money,  But the point here was that, at the time, Maybin and Miller were considered much higher ceiling prospects.  People still apparently thought Miller could be an ace lefthander and Maybin could be a perennial All-Star CF.  Fields had just hit a bunch of HRs in the Majors and both Danks and Gio showed promise but looked more like mid-rotation types best case scenario.  The Marlins were going to take the best talent offered regardless.  There would have been other teams willing to take on Willis if the Marlins wanted to do with him what the Indians just did with Kluber in a separate deal.  

The point I'm trying to make though is really about Crochet.  He's more of the Miller type of prospect than a Danks or Gio type of prospect, and that could help us in a number of ways.  Eventually there is going to come a point where the Sox are going to be willing to trade their top prospectI support the pick.

[fathom]

Fangraphs chat with Longenhagen has him at 15% chance of starting 

[Jack Parkman]

2 hours ago, fathom said:

Fangraphs chat with Longenhagen has him at 15% chance of starting 

They said that about Sale too. They can be wrong. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

On 5/7/2020 at 9:03 PM, HollywoodTim said:

I would be very happy with this pick.  I also love it when there is a downside as a late inning reliever.  Remember how Miami liked the Tigers offer for Miguel Cabrera better than the Sox offer.  The Sox offer was a great trade that would have helped the Marlins a lot.  The Tigers guys were all busts until Miller finally hit as a reliever, after having been DFAd and passed around a bunch of times.  But the point is that there was some pedigree and major upside with the Tigers guys and that is why they got Cabrera.  I think there is a nice chance with a pick like this that he either works out as a top-end starter, or as a top-end reliever, or as the centerpiece to a difference maker.  I also generally trust this organization with pitching prospects in the draft far more than with hitters.

This isn't entirely true. The White Sox wouldn't take back Dontrelle Willis' contract in the trade

[Dick Allen]

5 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

This isn't entirely true. The White Sox wouldn't take back Dontrelle Willis' contract in the trade

Willis was still arb eligible. They could have just non tendered him. I don’t even think the Sox came in second place. The Angels were all over him as well. They just didn’t like the Sox package as much as the others.

 

 

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

Willis was still arb eligible. They could have just non tendered him. I don’t even think the Sox came in second place. The Angels were all over him as well. They just didn’t like the Sox package as much as the others.

 

 

It is kind of remarkable that gio makes a case for the Sox package being best. Miller obviously great few years but kind of a guy you need to be in right position to value most.

[Quin]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

It is kind of remarkable that gio makes a case for the Sox package being best. Miller obviously great few years but kind of a guy you need to be in right position to value most.

Yeah, Gio + Danks is pretty much the best package by far.

Which also makes me feel so, so much better about what we've gotten for Sale, Q, and Eaton so far in Moncada, Eloy, and Gio's careers. Kopech, Lopez, Cease, Running, and Basabe can make it better, but man, it's so easy to strike out.

[Dominikk85]

13 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

They said that about Sale too. They can be wrong. 

Sure they  can be wrong and 15% is not nothing  but not sure it is good to hope for the outlier. At 11 you need some risk if you want upside, that is not like a top5 pick but I'd want At least like a 50% chance to start. Sure he could be sale but more likely he is fulmer or if it is not quite as bad a good reliever. 

 

Now if he becomes  a top5 closer that is a good result for a 11th pick but it could also be worse so I would prefer a safer starter floor.

[HollywoodTim]

8 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

Sure they  can be wrong and 15% is not nothing  but not sure it is good to hope for the outlier. At 11 you need some risk if you want upside, that is not like a top5 pick but I'd want At least like a 50% chance to start. Sure he could be sale but more likely he is fulmer or if it is not quite as bad a good reliever. 

 

Now if he becomes  a top5 closer that is a good result for a 11th pick but it could also be worse so I would prefer a safer starter floor.

One theoretical advantage the Sox would have drafting Crochet vs. Fulmer is that there is a good chance they would be able to still trade Crochet for excellent value 1 year after drafting him.  With Fulmer, the Sox basically had to have him develop because of how his timeline coincided with the Sox rebuild.  With Crochet, the Sox would have the benefit of scouting him internally for a year or so and then turning him around in a deal if they don't like what they see enough to keep him.

While the high school pitchers can be more tantalizing, I do think the college pitching route not only makes more sense because of the Sox timeline and the virus, but also, I like how it would kind of encourage the team to make a quick decision and either push him toward the big leagues or sell before he loses too much value. 

[HollywoodTim]

^That said, the Sox still could have sent Fulmer for Shields instead of Tatis. 

But even still, the big kicker on Tatis is this, and I mention it because I have still never seen anyone mention this on this board since that trade: Tatis was purely the "cash considerations" part of that deal.  Had the Sox offered to take the majority of Shields' deal over along with Erik Johnson, that deal gets done immediately.  The only reason Tatis was necessary to include was due to the amount of cash the Padres were picking up.  It's the Reinsdorf special.  Cash Considerations is always his favorite player.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, HollywoodTim said:

One theoretical advantage the Sox would have drafting Crochet vs. Fulmer is that there is a good chance they would be able to still trade Crochet for excellent value 1 year after drafting him.  With Fulmer, the Sox basically had to have him develop because of how his timeline coincided with the Sox rebuild.  With Crochet, the Sox would have the benefit of scouting him internally for a year or so and then turning him around in a deal if they don't like what they see enough to keep him.

 

Let’s also never forget that the white Sox did some incredibly high risk stuff with Fulmer. Aggressive push to AA, reworking delivery mechanics, then calling him up to the big leagues to save the bullpen on the collapsing 2016 team when he was still struggling with the revamped mechanics as a starter. What has Fulmers problem been? Repeating mechanics and control, exactly the kind of thing that could be triggered by changing a guys mechanics and not giving him reps to adapt to them. Maybe he never would have amounted to anything, but he had a good arm and good movement on stuff, so he at least had a chance, and that was just about the worst bunch of things you could do for that players’ development.

[Dominikk85]

12 hours ago, HollywoodTim said:

One theoretical advantage the Sox would have drafting Crochet vs. Fulmer is that there is a good chance they would be able to still trade Crochet for excellent value 1 year after drafting him.  With Fulmer, the Sox basically had to have him develop because of how his timeline coincided with the Sox rebuild.  With Crochet, the Sox would have the benefit of scouting him internally for a year or so and then turning him around in a deal if they don't like what they see enough to keep him.

While the high school pitchers can be more tantalizing, I do think the college pitching route not only makes more sense because of the Sox timeline and the virus, but also, I like how it would kind of encourage the team to make a quick decision and either push him toward the big leagues or sell before he loses too much value. 

That could work but lower level pitching prospects are not yielding great returns, especially if they are not raking (causing the sox willing to trade him) because of the theo Epstein mantra of developing hitting and buying pitching, I.e teams prefer trading for close to mlb ready pitchers as they have less bust risk.

If he is showing signs of not being good and still in high A ball his trade value won't be high.

If you plan to trade a guy better get a HS hitter as good HS hitters already have good trade value in the low minors if they perform some.

[Jack Parkman]

I didn't know that the chances of him remaining a starter are so low according to scouts. Not that that has stopped the Sox before, but Fulmer is a cautionary tale there. 

Edited May 10, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[HOFHurt35]

Really love the upside on this kid.  He's my guy. 

 

 

[HollywoodTim]

On 5/10/2020 at 6:43 PM, Jack Parkman said:

I didn't know that the chances of him remaining a starter are so low according to scouts. Not that that has stopped the Sox before, but Fulmer is a cautionary tale there. 

Fulmer is listed on Baseball Refence at 6'0" 195 lbs and he looks more like 5'10" or 5'11" to me.

Crochet is 6'6" legit and listed at 218.

I watched the video HOFHurt35 posted and the guys in it say they've heard things about him going as high as top 5.

This is my guy also.  I hope he's still there at 11 and we take him, and I hope the silence about him is because we don't want anything leaked.