FS: Draft Profile- Reid Detmers LHP Louisville

[Y2Jimmy0]

I think Reid Detmers might be the most-realistic, best case scenario for the White Sox in the first round. He's pretty young for a junior, would move fairly quickly and offers upside while being a pretty safe bet. I wrote about him here: https://www.futuresox.com/2020/05/27/2020-draft-preview-reid-detmers-lhp/

[HollywoodTim]

Don't want him.  We can sign or trade for a Major Leaguer with this kind of ceiling pretty easily.  At #11 go with upside.  I will take Crochet or Kelly instead.

[Quin]

18 minutes ago, HollywoodTim said:

Don't want him.  We can sign or trade for a Major Leaguer with this kind of ceiling pretty easily.  At #11 go with upside.  I will take Crochet or Kelly instead.

To play Devil's Advocate and, at the risk of falling into White Sox player comparisons, he could be another Quintana (Sox version) or Buehrle (with velocity). Pitchers with profiles of Kelley and Crochet have high bust rates, Detmers less so. 

We have the ace upside with Giolito, Kopech, Cease, and if he's ever healthy and locked in, Rodon. Lopez has #2 upside. Getting a stabilizing force isn't a bad thing.

Note: I'd be happy with any of these three.

[HOFHurt35]

4 minutes ago, Quin said:

To play Devil's Advocate and, at the risk of falling into White Sox player comparisons, he could be another Quintana (Sox version) or Buehrle (with velocity). Pitchers with profiles of Kelley and Crochet have high bust rates, Detmers less so. 

We have the ace upside with Giolito, Kopech, Cease, and if he's ever healthy and locked in, Rodon. Lopez has #2 upside. Getting a stabilizing force isn't a bad thing.

Note: I'd be happy with any of these three.

I think the game is moving well past the soft tossing contact pitchers of the past.   You have to strikeout people to survive in this game today.  Now, Detmer appears to have a lot of swing and miss potential with the curve ball, but I don't know how that transfers from College to MLB. 

[Flash]

2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I think Reid Detmers might be the most-realistic, best case scenario for the White Sox in the first round. He's pretty young for a junior, would move fairly quickly and offers upside while being a pretty safe bet. I wrote about him here: https://www.futuresox.com/2020/05/27/2020-draft-preview-reid-detmers-lhp/

If Abel is off the board, Detmers would be my choice. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

The question you have to ask regarding Detmers is what happens if he backs up.  I think he's more a 4-5 so if he backs up even a little what is he.  A spot starter. A situational reliever. When it comes to floor or ceiling at the top if the draft I will always choose ceiling.  

[HollywoodTim]

43 minutes ago, Quin said:

To play Devil's Advocate and, at the risk of falling into White Sox player comparisons, he could be another Quintana (Sox version) or Buehrle (with velocity). Pitchers with profiles of Kelley and Crochet have high bust rates, Detmers less so. 

We have the ace upside with Giolito, Kopech, Cease, and if he's ever healthy and locked in, Rodon. Lopez has #2 upside. Getting a stabilizing force isn't a bad thing.

Note: I'd be happy with any of these three.

I agree but we got Quintana as a MiLB FA.  Buehrle was today's equivalent of an UDFA, IIRC so was Hector Santiago.  Clayton Richard was a very unheralded prospect, same thing with Chris Bassitt (RHP) and so on.  The Sox are pretty good at finding mid-to-back of the rotation types.  Garland for Karcher is the kind of deal that theoretically can happen again.  At #11 we should take the opportunity to grab a kind of talent that otherwise wouldn't be available to us unless we are putting 100+ million or a trade of an excellent player on the table.  No matter where we are picking, we should be able to find talents like those players mentioned above.

I have personally thought before, for a long time actually, that the strength of this rebuild could be our RP.  Bummer could potentially get us a real nice SP prospect in A ball or something right now.  We have a lot of potential setup types that, if enough of them turn out, will be quality trade bait that is under control for a long period of time.  Maybe we go around targeting other teams' versions of Thompson and Dalquist, etc.  I think that is an approach that should be followed.

[HollywoodTim]

^Actually I think Hector was a 5th rounder or something.  But McCarthy was a late pick, Hudson was a later round pick, even Gio Gonzalez was a supplemental pick.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, HollywoodTim said:

Don't want him.  We can sign or trade for a Major Leaguer with this kind of ceiling pretty easily.  At #11 go with upside.  I will take Crochet or Kelly instead.

It seems like every time Soxtalk reaches this conclusion about a player, they regret passing on them.  Michael Wacha comes to mind immediately.

[southsider2k5]

24 minutes ago, HollywoodTim said:

I agree but we got Quintana as a MiLB FA.  Buehrle was today's equivalent of an UDFA, IIRC so was Hector Santiago.  Clayton Richard was a very unheralded prospect, same thing with Chris Bassitt (RHP) and so on.  The Sox are pretty good at finding mid-to-back of the rotation types.  Garland for Karcher is the kind of deal that theoretically can happen again.  At #11 we should take the opportunity to grab a kind of talent that otherwise wouldn't be available to us unless we are putting 100+ million or a trade of an excellent player on the table.  No matter where we are picking, we should be able to find talents like those players mentioned above.

I have personally thought before, for a long time actually, that the strength of this rebuild could be our RP.  Bummer could potentially get us a real nice SP prospect in A ball or something right now.  We have a lot of potential setup types that, if enough of them turn out, will be quality trade bait that is under control for a long period of time.  Maybe we go around targeting other teams' versions of Thompson and Dalquist, etc.  I think that is an approach that should be followed.

A mid-rotation starter IS a $100 million player on the free agent market these days.

[SoxAce]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

It seems like every time Soxtalk reaches this conclusion about a player, they regret passing on them.  Michael Wacha comes to mind immediately.

Aaron Nola was another who many thought had more of a floor than ceiling.

[HollywoodTim]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

It seems like every time Soxtalk reaches this conclusion about a player, they regret passing on them.  Michael Wacha comes to mind immediately.

I thought about Aaron Nola.  But then at the same time, like everyone else, we waaaaaaaay missed on Jacob DeGrom.  He is another one that could have been had by anyone.  9th round 272 overall.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, SoxAce said:

Aaron Nola was another who many thought had more of a floor than ceiling.

Solid recall on that name.  People were violently opposed to him.  Oops.

[HollywoodTim]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

A mid-rotation starter IS a $100 million player on the free agent market these days.

I disagree wholeheartedly.  If you're talking about Wheeler, they are paying him to be a top end SP, and "dealing with it" if he is lesser.  They are paying for top-end stuff and hoping achievement or overachievement, not paying for mid-rotation stuff and hoping for overahievement.

**I will say that I actually think of Wheeler as mid-rotation in terms of what he's likely to do on the field, but again, he's a special case due to the arm.  If he's healthy and on, in the playoffs, he can match up with anyone.

Edited May 27, 2020 by HollywoodTim

[HollywoodTim]

^I actually think SP prices are coming down.  Not on the top guys but on the mid-rotation types and back-end types, compared to maybe 8 or 10 years ago or so.

[Jack Parkman]

17 minutes ago, HollywoodTim said:

I thought about Aaron Nola.  But then at the same time, like everyone else, we waaaaaaaay missed on Jacob DeGrom.  He is another one that could have been had by anyone.  9th round 272 overall.

Nola took a jump in quality of stuff when he turned pro. That doesn't happen often with college starters. More often they take a step backward rather than forward. 

Edited May 27, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Dick Allen]

44 minutes ago, HollywoodTim said:

I agree but we got Quintana as a MiLB FA.  Buehrle was today's equivalent of an UDFA, IIRC so was Hector Santiago.  Clayton Richard was a very unheralded prospect, same thing with Chris Bassitt (RHP) and so on.  The Sox are pretty good at finding mid-to-back of the rotation types.  Garland for Karcher is the kind of deal that theoretically can happen again.  At #11 we should take the opportunity to grab a kind of talent that otherwise wouldn't be available to us unless we are putting 100+ million or a trade of an excellent player on the table.  No matter where we are picking, we should be able to find talents like those players mentioned above.

I have personally thought before, for a long time actually, that the strength of this rebuild could be our RP.  Bummer could potentially get us a real nice SP prospect in A ball or something right now.  We have a lot of potential setup types that, if enough of them turn out, will be quality trade bait that is under control for a long period of time.  Maybe we go around targeting other teams' versions of Thompson and Dalquist, etc.  I think that is an approach that should be followed.

And when you retrospected the 1998 draft and took Buerhle in the 1st round instead of the 38th, you would have been pretty happy about it. Kip Wells was the Sox #1 pick last year. You could have taken all the guys the Sox selected before Buehrle and you wouldn't have traded Buehrle for them 3 years after the draft.

Obviously, tools play, but pick the guy who is going to have the most success. I am not qualified to give my opinion, especially this draft. It is going to be really interesting.

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

And when you retrospected the 1998 draft and took Buerhle in the 1st round instead of the 38th, you would have been pretty happy about it. Kip Wells was the Sox #1 pick last year. You could have taken all the guys the Sox selected before Buehrle and you wouldn't have traded Buehrle for them 3 years after the draft.

Obviously, tools play, but pick the guy who is going to have the most success. I am not qualified to give my opinion, especially this draft. It is going to be really interesting.

The MB  pick is also not possible today as he was a draft and follow pick.  You lose picks now if you don't sign them by the deadline.

[southsider2k5]

15 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Nola took a jump in quality of stuff when he turned pro. That doesn't happen often with college starters. More often they take a step backward rather than forward. 

High schoolers more typically hit those falls and lose velocity especially.

[Jack Parkman]

39 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

High schoolers more typically hit those falls and lose velocity especially.

They're also more likely to gain as well. 

[Quin]

1 hour ago, HollywoodTim said:

I thought about Aaron Nola.  But then at the same time, like everyone else, we waaaaaaaay missed on Jacob DeGrom.  He is another one that could have been had by anyone.  9th round 272 overall.

Ok, discussing 9th rounders is way different than discussing 11th overall picks.

For a while it looked like the Sox hit the absolute jackpot with Alex Hansen. Dude had 1:1 ceiling in the draft, then cratered. Then he flashed his stuff again, then cratered.

[HollywoodTim]

52 minutes ago, Quin said:

Ok, discussing 9th rounders is way different than discussing 11th overall picks.

For a while it looked like the Sox hit the absolute jackpot with Alex Hansen. Dude had 1:1 ceiling in the draft, then cratered. Then he flashed his stuff again, then cratered.

In the draft you pay for the raw talent / stuff / ability / tools at the time, along with how advanced they are or are not at the time, and then you have things like projected fit and signability and bonus amounts that play into it.  

I guess my position is that paying for the "advanced" part is fine with a high pick, but I don't want to pay the "advanced" price if there is not some serious ceiling attached also.  We can get lesser combinations of ability + advancement later on in the draft, and some of those combinations turn out very well.

Hansen was obviously more ability than advancement, and that also worked out for a while.  He would have been pretty good trade bait for a period of time, probably not for a great player but I bet there was a point we could have gotten an excellent controllable reliever for him or a fringey MLB position player for sure.  Those kinds of players are also available later on.  

Re: Dick Allen's post above about retrospecting Buehrle, he is correct, but the point is that even if you could do that year's draft over again, with you having full hindsight whereas no one else had any idea what was going to happen, you would rework your draft still to take Buehrle way later, because you would know he'd be available in the 38th round or whatever it was, and you still would take players with more "talent" who rose in prospect ranks and then totally busted over him, but the caveat is you'd trade them rather than keep them.  The point is that if you are a good organization from a scouting and player development perspective, you shouldn't really be afraid of missing on a talent like Detmers.  But if say a player like Crochet works out as a starter, everyone who passed on him is going to look like an idiot.  And if you take him and he gets hurt, oh well, but you really can't say that you weren't "trying" when you took him.

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, HollywoodTim said:

In the draft you pay for the raw talent / stuff / ability / tools at the time, along with how advanced they are or are not at the time, and then you have things like projected fit and signability and bonus amounts that play into it.  

I guess my position is that paying for the "advanced" part is fine with a high pick, but I don't want to pay the "advanced" price if there is not some serious ceiling attached also.  We can get lesser combinations of ability + advancement later on in the draft, and some of those combinations turn out very well.

Hansen was obviously more ability than advancement, and that also worked out for a while.  He would have been pretty good trade bait for a period of time, probably not for a great player but I bet there was a point we could have gotten an excellent controllable reliever for him or a fringey MLB position player for sure.  Those kinds of players are also available later on.  

Re: Dick Allen's post above about retrospecting Buehrle, he is correct, but the point is that even if you could do that year's draft over again, with you having full hindsight whereas no one else had any idea what was going to happen, you would rework your draft still to take Buehrle way later, because you would know he'd be available in the 38th round or whatever it was, and you still would take players with more "talent" who rose in prospect ranks and then totally busted over him, but the caveat is you'd trade them rather than keep them.  The point is that if you are a good organization from a scouting and player development perspective, you shouldn't really be afraid of missing on a talent like Detmers.  But if say a player like Crochet works out as a starter, everyone who passed on him is going to look like an idiot.  And if you take him and he gets hurt, oh well, but you really can't say that you weren't "trying" when you took him.

But that is where some odds making plus some knowledge of your own system's developmental abilities come into play.  He might have a ceiling, but what are the odds he hits it?  When you start talking about an injury history on top of that, that also comes into play.  Plus the White Sox know what they like in a pitcher and what they don't.  It could be something in their delivery that they project to be a higher than acceptable injury risk down the road, etc.  There are many factors that could lead to a "safe" pick at this stage over a "ceiling" guy.  If there is any franchise I give the benefit of the doubt to when it comes to pitching, it is this one.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

5 hours ago, HollywoodTim said:

I thought about Aaron Nola.  But then at the same time, like everyone else, we waaaaaaaay missed on Jacob DeGrom.  He is another one that could have been had by anyone.  9th round 272 overall.

DeGrom was a SS in college who couldn't hit a lick. He didn't start pitching until his junior year and wasn't very good.  He was drafted on arm strength and developed into one of the best pitchers in the game.  It's a great story. 

[oldsox]

30 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

DeGrom was a SS in college who couldn't hit a lick. He didn't start pitching until his junior year and wasn't very good.  He was drafted on arm strength and developed into one of the best pitchers in the game.  It's a great story. 

Interesting.  Did not know that.