2021 MLB Draft Thread

[caulfield12]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-top-150-draft-prospects?t=mlb-draft-coverage

 

Not sure if this is distinct from the last list published earlier.

Rocker pushed to the side by Leiter.   New Top 150 by MLB Pipeline.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

On 4/21/2021 at 10:56 AM, DirtySox said:

Crews might be a dude. ?

Did you see the bomb he hit last night?  LSU twitter called it a Crews missile.  That's good stuff.

[DirtySox]

3 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Did you see the bomb he hit last night?  LSU twitter called it a Crews missile.  That's good stuff.

I did now. What a beast.

 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

https://theathletic.com/2537424/2021/04/23/initial-mlb-draft-league-rosters-underwhelm-longtime-scouts-it-looks-like-an-open-tryout-for-the-indy-leagues/

This league was going to be a disaster the minute they asked PBR to select the players. It's a bunch of day 3 guys and FA signs.  Well done, Manfred.  

[ChiSoxJon]

9 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

https://theathletic.com/2537424/2021/04/23/initial-mlb-draft-league-rosters-underwhelm-longtime-scouts-it-looks-like-an-open-tryout-for-the-indy-leagues/

This league was going to be a disaster the minute they asked PBR to select the players. It's a bunch of day 3 guys and FA signs.  Well done, Manfred.  

Heard this as well, what a clusterf

[DirtySox]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-mlb-draft-2021?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Quote

22) White Sox: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
At times this spring, Bachman has shown off 80-grade fastballs and sliders (on the 20-to-80 scouting scale). The White Sox certainly haven’t shied away from power college arms (Garrett Crochet, Zack Burdi, Carson Fulmer, Carlos Rodón) in the past.

 

[Dominikk85]

Is there a chance Bachman can start? When I read two 80 grade pitches out of college he must have some serious warts (health, control, lack of any third pitch) to fall to 22.

 

At 22 I don't need guaranteed starter but I don't want a guaranteed reliever in the first round either, I. E I want at least a 30-40% chance he can start (then I can live with a high leverage reliever "floor"). 

Edited April 26, 2021 by Dominikk85

[Harold's Leg Lift]

10 hours ago, DirtySox said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-mlb-draft-2021?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

I don't think Bachman will be there at 22.  They have 4 prep pitchers going in the top 19 picks.  I have a hard time seeing that happening.

I watched a video of Benny Montgomery . He has a really handsy swing.  His path is fine and he creates some serious leverage but he's a guy you would have to log a lot of AB's on to figure out if it's a hitch or a timing mechanism.  I can see him being a Byron Buxton light kind of player.  He's super athletic and his carrying tools are all plus so he can still provide value even if his bat is a bit slower to develop and when/if the bat breaks out he's a superstar.  

[bmags]

the latest mock draft from BA has andrew painter for the sox at 22, jobe at 11. 

[DirtySox]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

the latest mock draft from BA has andrew painter for the sox at 22, jobe at 11. 

Quote

Andrew Painter

Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, Fla. RHP

Notes:

Painter is another high schooler out of Florida who is probably lower on the board than you would have thought back in January. He is no longer the consensus top arm in the class thanks to Jobe’s development, but he is still solidly a first round talent. It would be difficult to find a high school pitcher with his combination of a solid four-pitch mix, size and advanced command of his entire arsenal.

 

Edited April 28, 2021 by DirtySox

[DirtySox]

1 through 22 from BA's Mock 3.0 below.

Quote

1.) PIT - Jack Leiter

2.) TEX - Jordan Lawlar

3.) DET - Marcelo Mayer

4.) BOS - Kumar Rocker

5.) BAL - Brady House

6.) AZ - Henry Davis

7.) KC - Sal Frelick

8.) COL - Adrian Del Castillo

9.) LAA - Ty Madden

10.) NYM - Gunnar Hoglund

11.) WAS - Jackson Jobe

12.) SEA - Colton Cowser

13.) PHI - Kahlil Watson

14.) SFG - Bubba Chandler

15.) MIL - Benny Montgomery

16.) MIA - Matt McLain

17.) CIN - Jordan Wicks

18.) STL - Harry Ford

19.) TOR - Sam Bachman

20.) NYY - Ryan Cusick

21.) CHC - James Wood

22.) CWS - Andrew Painter

 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

They finally caught up.  Good job, Fellas.  

[DirtySox]

Fabian takes Leiter deep today.

 

[DirtySox]

Fabian just took Leiter deep again.

[DirtySox]

2 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Fabian just took Leiter deep again.

 

[GreenSox]

Leiter is my bust pick in this year's  draft. Some Fulmer vibes.

[Dominikk85]

2 hours ago, GreenSox said:

Leiter is my bust pick in this year's  draft. Some Fulmer vibes.

Why? Obviously any pitcher has a lot of bust potential and there is no completely safe pitching prospect but wouldn't leiter's decent command and deep arsenal create a relatively save floor? 

[GreenSox]

8 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

Why? Obviously any pitcher has a lot of bust potential and there is no completely safe pitching prospect but wouldn't leiter's decent command and deep arsenal create a relatively save floor? 

The full windup motion - the way he has that mini pause at the belt; a little jerky. 
I'm not saying I think he's going to bust.  It's just that among the top 6 or so college players,  I think has the highest chance to bust.

Edited May 3, 2021 by GreenSox

[fathom]

Looking back, Fulmer got a lot of strike outs on pitches way out of the zone.  Those are pitches that professionals won’t chase. Leiter seems to dominate in the strike zone.

[bmags]

12 minutes ago, fathom said:

Looking back, Fulmer got a lot of strike outs on pitches way out of the zone.  Those are pitches that professionals won’t chase. Leiter seems to dominate in the strike zone.

Yes, this if anything he'll need to learn where to live outside zone. It's a part of where I think he's gotten a little HR prone.

College hitters look like they are finally heating up. I know Rocker's stuff has taken a dive but man that guy has guts when he pitches. I hope he can get back to where he was with FB.

Fabian has started to get his k-rate under control. Rooting for him to finish strong.

Was bound to happen, but nothings really making me feel too excited by the sox position in this class once Jobe got out of reach. Pacheco intrigues me, but these poor hitters all had a rough go of the last year and sox will have to look at high schoolers with some swing and miss and figure it out. Montgomery too looks toolsy and fun.

But Painter does sound interesting, maybe just go with that.

[DirtySox]

21 minutes ago, bmags said:

Fabian has started to get his k-rate under control. Rooting for him to finish strong.

BA has a piece today on Fabian with video on an adjustment he's made.

Quote

We’ve written previously about how Fabian’s strikeout rates could be concerning for teams. However, the toolsy Florida outfielder has made an adjustment in his approach within the last few weeks and it seems to be working.

After Florida’s series against Missouri, Fabian eliminated his stride in two-strike counts. You can see mechanical adjustments in the clips below from an April 25 game against Auburn within a fourth-inning at-bat against lefthander Peyton Glavine (yes, the son of Hall of Famer, Tom Glavine).

Below is the first pitch of the at-bat. Pay attention to Fabian’s front foot.

Here’s the second pitch of the at-bat, an 0-1 changeup in a similar zone. This time Fabian takes a swing and fouls off the ball, but keep your attention on the front leg.

Similar to the first load and stride, right? Right. Now, in an 0-2 count, Fabian makes an adjustment.

There’s no leg kick to get started and no stride at all to get his swing going. On the next pitch, it pays off in the form of an 0-2 home run to left field.

Fabian has been making a concerted effort to cut down on his strikeouts, and if you check the numbers, it seems to be working.

In February and March, Fabian struck out 40 times in 96 games, and was pushing his strikeout rate close to 40% of the time at his worst. However, since April, he’s cut his strikeout rate significantly.

And perhaps the most encouraging sign: Not only has Fabian managed to cut down on his rate of whiffs, but he’s done so without sacrificing in-game power production. In fact, his power rate has gone up in this stretch, and two of his home runs this past weekend came in two-strike counts against Vanderbilt righthander Jack Leiter.

Like every college player in the country, he has more leverage than a typical draft year to move the needle in either direction in the final months of the season. With so much of the 2020 season simply taken away, every at-bat down the stretch carries even more weight than it typically would—good and bad. The ability to make adjustments as a hitter is crucial, and Fabian is showing he’s capable of making them.

 

Edited May 3, 2021 by DirtySox

[bmags]

8 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

BA has a piece today on Fabian with video on an adjustment he's made.

 

This is such a weird year to scout, but I'd still be happy with Fabian at 22 despite it all. 

[DirtySox]

On 4/28/2021 at 2:21 PM, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They finally caught up.  Good job, Fellas.  

On the stock watch today.

Quote

Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois — No. 82 (+155)

Sweeney has been one of the better offensive performers in the country this season and is hitting .399/.523/.736 with a team-high 12 home runs after homering this past weekend. There are some moving parts in his swing, but some scouts think he has a chance for plus power potential and while scouts are mixed on whether or not he sticks at shortstop at the next level, he certainly has the arm to handle third base. He’s been heavily scouted in recent weeks and it’s no surprise why given his production—even if it is against lower-level competition in the Ohio Valley Conference.

Here's two more that made considerable jumps as well that stood out to me.

Quote

Robert Gasser, LHP, Houston — No. 59 (+242)

Gasser put in a lot of work over the offseason and it’s paying off for him this year, with his stuff ticking up. Outside of two starts against Oklahoma and Wichita State, Gasser has posted every week for Houston, and is sitting with a 2.13 ERA, 78 strikeouts and 22 walks through 63.1 innings and 10 starts. With a four-pitch mix that now features a fastball that gets up into the mid 90s from the left side, Gasser has solidly put himself into day one consideration.

Quote

Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State — No. 43 (+258)

Nelson was unranked on our previous list, which is an indictment on us and also a credit to what he’s done this season. After OPSing .885 as a freshman in 2019 and .794 during the shortened 2020 season, Nelson has exploded this season, hitting .341/.445/.867 with 20 home runs and a massive 1.312 OPS. Pair those numbers with defensive tools that scouts think have a chance to be above-average and it’s hard to see Nelson lasting very long at all come draft time. If he keeps hitting at this sort of pace for the rest of the season a No. 43 ranking will seem light.

 

Edited May 3, 2021 by DirtySox

[Chisoxfn]

On 5/3/2021 at 8:20 AM, fathom said:

Looking back, Fulmer got a lot of strike outs on pitches way out of the zone.  Those are pitches that professionals won’t chase. Leiter seems to dominate in the strike zone.

Lets be honest - people like to say Fulmer's issue at big league level and with Sox was command. And don't get me wrong - his command wasn't good. But his biggest issue is something material happened to his stuff between college ball and professional. I don't know if it was due to mechanical issues or if he just "lost" his stuff - but by the time he got to the majors he had mediocre (at best) stuff and lousy command.  

He didn't flash anything plus at the big league level ever - and this is not revisionist history - because this is the pedestal I was on from the very beginning from the first time i saw him at big league level (where he was a shell - from a pure stuff and zip on the ball perspective) from the guy that we saw dominate the college baseball scene. 

[DirtySox]

Callis mock. Kinda interesting. Notes that most clubs think the Pirates will go with Lawlar or Meyer at 1.1

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-mlb-draft-2021-may-5?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Quote

22. White Sox: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
This feels too low for Cusick, who has run his fastball up to 102 mph while displaying a much-improved curveball this spring, gaining him plenty of suitors in the 10-15 range.