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2021 MLB Draft Thread


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Callis mock. Apparently Kahlil Watson is surging up the board.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-mlb-draft-may-26?t=mlb-draft-coverage

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22. White Sox: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
The White Sox invested $7.1 million in premium high school right-handers (Jared Kelley, Matthew Thompson and Andrew Dalquist) in the last two Drafts, though they didn't take any of them in the first round. It's unlikely they could push Painter all the way to their next pick at No. 57, however. Chicago could be the peak for Indiana prep third baseman Colson Montgomery, who's generating a lot of recent first-round buzz.

Colson Montgomery mentioned again. @Y2Jimmy0 had it first though. ?

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Preseason Report: Wilson exploded onto the college baseball scene in 2019, hitting .345/.453/.686 and making his way onto the freshman All-American first team. With 17 home runs, Wilson was just one homer shy of the first team home run leader Aaron Sabato, whom the Twins selected in the first round in 2020. Wilson has big, bold check marks next to the two most important tools thanks to his hitting ability and power, and scouts think he’s solidly in the first round mix because of that. He has a heady, consistent approach at the dish and draws a solid number of walks—Wilson has a 12% walk rate in his South Alabama career—to go with his gaudy power numbers. Even as a left fielder, where Wilson is most likely to end up, he has the hitting ability and power to profile and become an impact, middle-of-the-order bat at the next level. Playing in the Sun Belt Conference, he will get critiqued for not having performed against better pitching, so missing a chance to hit in the Cape Cod League or with Team USA might hurt the 6-foot-2, 210-pound lefthanded slugger more than others, but he’s done nothing but perform with the opportunities he’s been given.

 

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47 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Keith Law mock.  Come on people lets get our priorities straight. 

1. Henry Davis
2. Jordan Lawlar
3. Marcelo Mayer
4. Kumar Rocker
5. Harry Ford
6. Jack Leiter

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22. Chicago White Sox: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland (NJ) HS

The White Sox do things their own particular way, and have never been worried about pitchers with tough deliveries if the stuff is there, so while Petty has a violent delivery and only two pitches, you can’t argue against his velocity (up to 101 at times, 94-99 when I saw him). I’ve also heard them on Indiana prep infielder Colson Montgomery.

25. Gunnar Hoglund

On Fabian:

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Q: Did that 0-11 with 9K last weekend pretty much send Jud Fabian out of the 1st Round or was he never there to begin with?
Law: He was never there to begin with. At least not since the season started.

 

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I'm out on Fabian. D1 pitchers got a lot better and the old rule of thumb that above 20% k rate is death sentence is no longer true but I don't think fabian will hit above 230 in pro ball or ever strike out under 30% and more likely mid to high 30s which doesn't work even in modern baseball 

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Kumar Rocker was sloppy tonight against Arkansas in the SEC Tourney.  He got chased with a high pitch count in the 4th inning after giving up 4.  I see him and I see Carson Fulmer.  Great stuff to get college hitters out.  Not enough control to make the next leap.  

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4 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Rocker had his worst start of the season tonight.  Couldn't get out of the 4th.  He couldn't spot his fastball and threw a ton of off speed stuff.  

Ha.  I was just going post the same thing.

Harold the other thing that gets me.  Kumar's big pitch is his slider.  It has more drop than lateral movement.   I don't know how that's going to play in the majors. He throws it just out of the zone and I see batter after batter chase it.  MLB hitters have a much more discerning eye than College hitters.    

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11 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

Harold the other thing that gets me.  Kumar's big pitch is his slider.  It has more drop than lateral movement.   I don't know how that's going to play in the majors. He throws it just out of the zone and I see batter after batter chase it.  MLB hitters have a much more discerning eye than College hitters.    

I agree.  If he can't locate his fastball big league hitters are going to spit on the slider. His cutter looks like it could be an above avg pitch and he threw a couple decent changes but it won't be enough to get him thru the lineup more than once if can't consistently throw the fastball for strikes.  He has huge reliever risk.  

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1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I agree.  If he can't locate his fastball big league hitters are going to spit on the slider. His cutter looks like it could be an above avg pitch and he threw a couple decent changes but it won't be enough to get him thru the lineup more than once if can't consistently throw the fastball for strikes.  He has huge reliever risk.  

Funny you should say reliever risk. The shape of his slider reminds me of a former white sox reliever.  Luis Vizcaino

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5 hours ago, southsideirish71 said:

Harold the other thing that gets me.  Kumar's big pitch is his slider.  It has more drop than lateral movement.   I don't know how that's going to play in the majors. He throws it just out of the zone and I see batter after batter chase it.  MLB hitters have a much more discerning eye than College hitters.    

I think that is a good think. I listened to a podcast and a pitching guy many great mlb sliders have more drop than lateral movement (lateral movement is currently really "out" anyway and teams chase vertical movement (rise on FB and drop on breaking balls). 

I think that slider will play great in the majors but there is some risk he is a reliever. Unlike Fulmer though his elite breaking ball gives him a much higher floor as a reliever. 

Still obviously you don't want to go top 5 with a reliever risk guy but 5 to 10 with a guy with some relief risk who still has a good chance to become a front line starter is a good deal. 

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23 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

I'm out on Fabian. D1 pitchers got a lot better and the old rule of thumb that above 20% k rate is death sentence is no longer true but I don't think fabian will hit above 230 in pro ball or ever strike out under 30% and more likely mid to high 30s which doesn't work even in modern baseball 

I get this, it's just this year we are at 22 instead of top ten, and I think he's athletic enough that he's not done changing. 

But it's uber risky, I get. And you don't want to become the 00s white sox that got zero production out of first round picks.

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24 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

I'm not a pro or even an expert, but how the devil is Leiter not the number 1 pick?

Teams are becoming more and more risk averse at the top of the draft and hitters are seen as much safer picks.  In my world Leiter is the best player in this draft and it's not particularly close. 

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50 minutes ago, bmags said:

I get this, it's just this year we are at 22 instead of top ten, and I think he's athletic enough that he's not done changing. 

But it's uber risky, I get. And you don't want to become the 00s white sox that got zero production out of first round picks.

Has any hitter really signigificantly improved in the sox system though? 

Sox brought up some good hitters the last years but most of them were performing from the get go in the minors and generally more polished hitters. 

Who was the last more raw type for the sox who initially had some flaws but then fixed it and really overperformed the expectations? 

TA might fit that mold but that also was like half a decade ago, most of the raw flawed but toolsy guys really never improved much.

 I know the sox did try to gain ground by having guys like Johansen but while he is smart we don't know how much support he gets and we have yet to see the sox "fixing" raw hitters with warts. 

Not saying they should always get "finished products" like madrigal and Vaughn, especially since finished products outside the top 10 have too little upside but when going toolsy I would prefer young guys like HS and international who have more time to figure it out. 

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59 minutes ago, bmags said:

I get this, it's just this year we are at 22 instead of top ten, and I think he's athletic enough that he's not done changing. 

But it's uber risky, I get. And you don't want to become the 00s white sox that got zero production out of first round picks.

I watched a couple of his AB's yesterday and think his hand set is too high. He collapses his backside and the swing path gets too uphill.  I think lowering his hands will get him on more on plane and will greatly improve his contact rate. 

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1 hour ago, turnin' two said:

I'm not a pro or even an expert, but how the devil is Leiter not the number 1 pick?

Carlos Rodon syndrome.   I swear the longer a player is around, the harder they get looked at, and teams spend more time picking them apart, where the new guy doesn't have those faults picked out yet.  Its some classic overthinking.

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1 hour ago, Dominikk85 said:

Has any hitter really signigificantly improved in the sox system though? 

Sox brought up some good hitters the last years but most of them were performing from the get go in the minors and generally more polished hitters. 

Who was the last more raw type for the sox who initially had some flaws but then fixed it and really overperformed the expectations? 

TA might fit that mold but that also was like half a decade ago, most of the raw flawed but toolsy guys really never improved much.

 I know the sox did try to gain ground by having guys like Johansen but while he is smart we don't know how much support he gets and we have yet to see the sox "fixing" raw hitters with warts. 

Not saying they should always get "finished products" like madrigal and Vaughn, especially since finished products outside the top 10 have too little upside but when going toolsy I would prefer young guys like HS and international who have more time to figure it out. 

Not sure what your qualifications are exactly, but Tim Anderson is the one on the top end, but on the bottom end, they turned 19th and 22nd rounders in Adam Engel and Danny Mendick into useful roster pieces for sure.

Most of the recent picks are still really young, but there is some big time starts by some guys in the minors, we will see if they sustain it or not.

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2 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

Has any hitter really signigificantly improved in the sox system though? 

Sox brought up some good hitters the last years but most of them were performing from the get go in the minors and generally more polished hitters. 

Who was the last more raw type for the sox who initially had some flaws but then fixed it and really overperformed the expectations? 

TA might fit that mold but that also was like half a decade ago, most of the raw flawed but toolsy guys really never improved much.

 I know the sox did try to gain ground by having guys like Johansen but while he is smart we don't know how much support he gets and we have yet to see the sox "fixing" raw hitters with warts. 

Not saying they should always get "finished products" like madrigal and Vaughn, especially since finished products outside the top 10 have too little upside but when going toolsy I would prefer young guys like HS and international who have more time to figure it out. 

I think this is a bit crazy. Certainly TA is an amazing success story, but Yoan was in AA and coming off a disastrous mlb stint. Eloy was in A ball. Robert was 19 playing in a watered down Cuban League. And they all made it and have all been successful hitters.

No matter how polished you think Vaughn and Madrigal are, they made it to the bigs and Vaughn did so whilst being developed with no minor leagues.

And add to that, Engel was a bad college hitter drafted in the 20th round who made it to the bigs and has become a productive player. Mendick was a teens mlb pick now an mlb player. Even Leury, he was a defense first, nothing offensive player that was transformed into an MLB depth piece when used right.

Jake Burger doing what he's doing in AAA makes him now one of the better batters selected in the last 20 picks of the first round in 2017. Granted Nick Pratto has been pretty good in AA now, and that Evan White 28 wRC+ looks sexy.

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