FS: Ranking Garrett Crochet and Jared Kelley in the White Sox system

[Y2Jimmy0]

Our writers have been debating where to slot Garrett Crochet and Jared Kelley into the organizational top 30 list. We compiled our thoughts into a roundtable here: https://www.futuresox.com/2020/06/22/where-do-garrett-crochet-and-jared-kelley-rank-in-the-white-sox-system/

What does everyone else think? Where should they rank? 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

1. Robert

2. Vaughn

3. Crochet

4. Stiever

5. Kelley

6. Madrigal

7. Dunning

8. Dahlquist

9. Thompson

10. Adolfo

Kopech and Collins are big leaguers. 

[southsider2k5]

I just wanted to point out with this line:

if the White Sox thought Kelley was better than Crochet they would have grabbed him with the 11th pick.

The Sox couldn't get Crochet to slide to the second round, but because Kelley was a HS kid in the craziest draft in MLB history, he could legitimately use his draft status and bonus demands to push himself out of the other teams ranges and safety factors.  The Sox may well have thought Kelley was the better pick, but there is no way that Crochet had the same leverage to push his status the same way that Kelley did.  If the feelings were reversed there is no way Crochet falls more than 5 to 10 picks because he would come back as a college senior, and couldn't demand money the same way that Kelley did.  In this way they got both of them.  If they pick Kelley first, they don't get Crochet.  They get a lesser second round pick.  They played the system to get two first round picks effectively.  I wouldn't use that as a definite way of rating how they feel about both players.

[turnin' two]

Love it.  Great article and thanks for the insights.  Always great to add more great arms to the system.  A couple things I really like here, the first round pick doesn't immediately become the top prospect, as has been the case in the past.  Heck, here guys with pretty elite stuff hardly (or don't) crack the top 5.  I also really like that cluster of pitchers sitting 5-8.  A couple guys with great minor league track records and a couple new guys with great stuff.  I like the balance there.  

 

Thanks guys, for another great article.

[Y2Jimmy0]

46 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

1. Robert

2. Vaughn

3. Crochet

4. Stiever

5. Kelley

6. Madrigal

7. Dunning

8. Dahlquist

9. Thompson

10. Adolfo

Kopech and Collins are big leaguers. 

For the purposes of what we do, they're still prospects 

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I just wanted to point out with this line:

 

 

The Sox couldn't get Crochet to slide to the second round, but because Kelley was a HS kid in the craziest draft in MLB history, he could legitimately use his draft status and bonus demands to push himself out of the other teams ranges and safety factors.  The Sox may well have thought Kelley was the better pick, but there is no way that Crochet had the same leverage to push his status the same way that Kelley did.  If the feelings were reversed there is no way Crochet falls more than 5 to 10 picks because he would come back as a college senior, and couldn't demand money the same way that Kelley did.  In this way they got both of them.  If they pick Kelley first, they don't get Crochet.  They get a lesser second round pick.  They played the system to get two first round picks effectively.  I wouldn't use that as a definite way of rating how they feel about both players.

Who wrote that line? I agree with you. This was the only way to get both players. 

[SoxBlanco]

1 minute ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Who wrote that line? I agree with you. This was the only way to get both players. 

Dan wrote that. 

[southsider2k5]

And just to put my two cents in for historical reference, I think this is a great discussion.  I think Crochet has the higher ceiling, being a lefty who has recently reached another gear.  I think there is no doubt Kelley has the higher floor.  Don't forget that Crochet was a pretty mediocre pitcher as of just one season ago.  I know some are saying "reliever floor" or risk, but if he loses whatever he gained before this year, he won't get into the middle minors, let alone the majors.  Kelley seems to be almost maxed out, but his max is still a pretty darned good pitcher.

As of today, I would place Crochet SLIGHTLY ahead of Kelley because his ceiling is so high, but it is really close.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I would do this: 

1. Luis Robert OF

2. Michael Kopech RHP

3. Andrew Vaughn 1B

4. Nick Madrigal 2B

5. Jared Kelley RHP

6. Garrett Crochet LHP

7. Dane Dunning RHP

8. Jonathan Stiever RHP

9. Matthew Thompson RHP

10. Andrew Dalquist RHP

I'd probably put Norge Vera in the top 10 but he's not officially signed. 

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

For the purposes of what we do, they're still prospects 

Who wrote that line? I agree with you. This was the only way to get both players. 

I mean it is sort of like drafting a college senior to save money for another pick.  You can't take Coffey's status as a 3rd round pick and use it to say they like him more than their 5th round pick.  It was a pick made for a strategic reason.  The Crochet/Kelley order may well have been strategic and someone in the back office figuring out if they played their cards this way they get both of them, instead of one of them and a lesser second round pick.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I'm being a little conservative with Crochet. Shirley saw him this spring at a scrimmage and that sold him on the pick basically. Guys like Harold on this board love him and think the ceiling is huge. That can't be argued. We might look back and all feel stupid when he's a dominant lefty starter. The White Sox think they stole a guy. If he pitched the rest of the season, there's a decent chance he's not even on the board at #11. I'd understand ranking Crochet at 4 but I'd also understand ranking him behind Dunning and Stiever. It's very interesting. 

[Dominikk85]

Are you worried about the reports of Kelley showing up out of shape in spring as of makeup concerns or do you think that is nothing to worry about?

[Y2Jimmy0]

5 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Are you worried about the reports of Kelley showing up out of shape in spring as of makeup concerns or do you think that is nothing to worry about?

I've heard nothing about makeup concerns. I interviewed him last week and have spoken to people close to him. I'd be stunned if he had any makeup issues. He was definitely heavier this spring. Professional strength program can fix all of that. 

[HollywoodTim]

I think Robert, Kopech and Vaughn are 1-3 in any order.  I wouldn't be upset ranking any as #1 or #2 or #3 amongst that group.  They are all MLB-ready and look like potential franchise pieces.  They are in a tier of their own.

Then I put Crochet at 4.  I don't buy the #3 ceiling, because if he develops into a true 200IP SP I think he's an ace.  I think he's a #3 if he can't work deep into games and he's not a true 3 above-average-pitch pitcher.

Kelley is #5 for now.

This is where the "elite prospects" end and the "other guys" begin.

Then I think there is a group of players here who can be #3-5 SPs at some point in the future.  I would rank Dunning first, then Stiever, then Lambert.  I think all are more likely to be #4 types.  I don't believe Thompson and Dalquist should be ranked in the middle of a group of near-MLB ready guys when they aren't in that "franchise player" type ability level.  I think they should be ranked lower than those players who look like near-MLB ready regular contributors.

There are then the position players.  I would go Madrigal, Collins, and Basabe next.  All are really close if healthy.

I think the second tier of position players and second tier of SPs can go in a lot of different orders.  I'd go Madrigal, Dunning, Collins, Stiever, Lambert, Basabe probably.  Madrigal has floor but not ceiling, and is really the surest MLB contributor bet in the group even though if I'm the GM he's on my trade block.

Then there is the next level of mixed-bag position players, like Yermin who has a shorter ceiling but is MLB ready, and Rutherford who is starting to trend in a better direction but should still be treated like a probable bust, Sheets who might not be able to hit MLB pitching but has power and can walk, etc.  Adolfo may never be healthy.  Luis Gonzalez needs to continue to rebound, and in a way that shows some pop.  You can really arrange these guys in any order.

After those guys I would rank Thompson and Dalquist among some other guys like Bailey and Sosa, etc.  Thompson and Dalquist would top that 3rd tier of interesting guys who need to develop and advance a bit closer to be worthy of ranking among the near-MLB ready players.