2020 60 game sprint to the finish

[KrankinSox]

52 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yeah, but even among people from age 20-69, the death rate hovers between 0.4-0.6%. 

Statistically, if 250 players got Covid one would die. 10% get would be seriously ill, so that would be 25 players in ICUs. 

0.4% is high if you think about it. 

This is not accurate. There are many other factors you aren't considering such as underlying health issues.  Not to mention, there aren't many 69 year old MLB players.

[Jerksticks]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yeah, but even among people from age 20-69, the death rate hovers between 0.4-0.6%. 

Statistically, if 250 players got Covid one would die. 10% get would be seriously ill, so that would be 25 players in ICUs. 

0.4% is high if you think about it. 

There’s absolutely no possible way that is true. 

[Quin]

42 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said:

The sport isnt dying. Its making money hand over fist. This nonsensical idea that you need to implement all these gimmicky rules to “save baseball” are whats turning the game into a joke

It makes money cause of BAM tech, Korean companies, and betting markets.

It's not making money because it's attracting new fans. It's a seeing the forest through the trees situation.

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

There’s absolutely no possible way that is true. 

Balta had the chart last week. I've been looking for it but can't find it. 

[KrankinSox]

3 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

There’s absolutely no possible way that is true. 

According to the CDC, there are 821,000 people in the US between age 18-44 with a positive test.  2,479 of them have died.

That equals a 0.3% death rate, or 99.7% survival rate.  The vast majority of these deaths are due to underlying health issues.  So you're likely talking about a survival rate of over 99.9% for those aged between 18-44, without underlying health issues.

30 teams with 40 man rosters, is 1,200 players.

Statistically speaking, if all 1,200 players became infected, 1 would die. Assuming none had an underlying health issue, as those players are exempt from playing. That's if the ENTIRE league were infected.

[poppysox]

2 hours ago, flavum said:

Runner on 2nd in extra innings. So stupid.

I’d take ties after 12 before this nonsense.

Agreed!  It's not baseball.

[KrankinSox]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

I believe in the 20-29 range on the that graph the death rate was 0.38%, and for the 30-39 range it was 0.4%. Trying to find the data. 

So yes, 0.4% is 1 in 250. 

And many of those people already had cancer, lung disease, asthma, obesity, the list goes on. They were not professional athletes.

Anecdotally speaking, I haven't heard of any notable athletes who have even had hospital stays due to the virus. Dozens of athletes in the NBA, NFL, MLB, NCAA, Tennis, UFC, etc have had positive tests and I haven't read s single story about any of them fearing for their life, much less even feeling sick.  

A UFC fighter had trained for a fight, weighed in, and was ready to fight before realizing he was positive.

LSU had 23 players test positive, I don't think any of them even knew they were sick.

[KrankinSox]

Anyway, let's let this thread go back to baseball. Save the corona talk for another thread.

Really curious to see how Ricky handles a roster with a chance to win for basically the first time in his career.  I think the sox can get really creative with their pitching staff, using "openers" and what not.  

How do we expect the 60 game schedule to be distributed?

10 games (5 home, 5 away) vs the 4 ALC teams = 40 games

4 games (2 home, 2 away) vs the 4 NLC teams = 20 games.

That seems logical to me but I haven't seen anything from someone reputable on this.

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

And many of those people already had cancer, lung disease, asthma, obesity, the list goes on. They were not professional athletes.

Anecdotally speaking, I haven't heard of any notable athletes who have even had hospital stays due to the virus. Dozens of athletes in the NBA, NFL, MLB, NCAA, Tennis, UFC, etc have had positive tests and I haven't read s single story about any of them fearing for their life, much less even feeling sick.  

A UFC fighter had trained for a fight, weighed in, and was ready to fight before realizing he was positive.

LSU had 23 players test positive, I don't think any of them even knew they were sick.

I'm not sure we have enough information to make that conclusion yet. 

[DirtySox]

People are going to HATE the free substitution if it goes through.

[Balta1701]

25 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

According to the CDC, there are 821,000 people in the US between age 18-44 with a positive test.  2,479 of them have died.

That equals a 0.3% death rate, or 99.7% survival rate.  The vast majority of these deaths are due to underlying health issues.  So you're likely talking about a survival rate of over 99.9% for those aged between 18-44, without underlying health issues.

30 teams with 40 man rosters, is 1,200 players.

Statistically speaking, if all 1,200 players became infected, 1 would die. Assuming none had an underlying health issue, as those players are exempt from playing. That's if the ENTIRE league were infected.

Dude, try a calculator. Math. Very basic. 

0.3% = 0.003. 0.003 multiplied by 1200 is 3.6, not 1. 

[KrankinSox]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Dude, try a calculator. Math. Very basic. 

0.3% = 0.003. 0.003 multiplied by 1200 is 3.6, not 1. 

Dude, try reading my post again and I'll give you a second chance to respond without being such a smart ass.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Dude, try a calculator. Math. Very basic. 

0.3% = 0.003. 0.003 multiplied by 1200 is 3.6, not 1. 

Yeah 0.3% is three thousandths or quite literally 3 in 1000.

[Chisoxfn]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yeah 0.3% is three thousandths or quite literally 3 in 1000.

I think what he is saying is that he is assuming you don't have any underlying conditions in professional athletes and thus he is saying that 99.9% of ballplayers would survive.  I will caveat this is probably not a bad guess, but obviously we don't have data to come to this approach. I would also say I guarantee there are baseball players who have underlying conditions, whether heart disease or high blood pressure, etc.  But in general, a ballplayer should be in as low risk of a bracket as possible (from a health perspective), albeit a higher risk perspective in terms of risk of getting the virus.  

[35thstreetswarm]

I thought we had a separate armchair epidemiology thread?  Anyway, psyched to see this team finally play together.  Have they revealed anything at all about scheduling, even in principle?  I'm imagining it will be heavily weighted toward in-division games?  That would be a real advantage for us.  Will interleague games be mostly regional (i.e. playing a lot of NL Central teams?)

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Chisoxfn said:

I think what he is saying is that he is assuming you don't have any underlying conditions in professional athletes and thus he is saying that 99.9% of ballplayers would survive.  I will caveat this is probably not a bad guess, but obviously we don't have data to come to this approach. I would also say I guarantee there are baseball players who have underlying conditions, whether heart disease or high blood pressure, etc.  But in general, a ballplayer should be in as low risk of a bracket as possible (from a health perspective), albeit a higher risk perspective in terms of risk of getting the virus.  

This has been hinted at in other discussions I have read on health.  Basically the idea is just because we don't about them, doesn't mean that baseball players with underlying health conditions don't exist.  In fact because aerobic fitness isn't a huge need in baseball, you are probably looking at a more "normal" distribution of health over the entire population.  We know Jon Lester is a cancer survivor as is Rizzo.  Those are the ones I know that could be potentially immunocompromised.  I am sure there are others that I don't know about.

[KrankinSox]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

This has been hinted at in other discussions I have read on health.  Basically the idea is just because we don't about them, doesn't mean that baseball players with underlying health conditions don't exist.  In fact because aerobic fitness isn't a huge need in baseball, you are probably looking at a more "normal" distribution of health over the entire population.  We know Jon Lester is a cancer survivor as is Rizzo.  Those are the ones I know that could be potentially immunocompromised.  I am sure there are others that I don't know about.

Yes, and those with known health issues are able to opt out and receive full pay. They can choose to put themselves at risk though.

[Kyyle23]

Guys.  Stop it.  All of you.  

[Chisoxfn]

Fair point Kyle & great reminder - lets get back on topic.  We are going to have some baseball!!! 

[Kyyle23]

 

[Perfect Vision]

28 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

Anyway, let's let this thread go back to baseball. Save the corona talk for another thread.

Really curious to see how Ricky handles a roster with a chance to win for basically the first time in his career.  I think the sox can get really creative with their pitching staff, using "openers" and what not.  

How do we expect the 60 game schedule to be distributed?

10 games (5 home, 5 away) vs the 4 ALC teams = 40 games

4 games (2 home, 2 away) vs the 5 NLC teams = 20 games.

That seems logical to me but I haven't seen anything from someone reputable on this.

Bruce Levine was on the Score this morning and this is what he said he thought would happen.

[DirtySox]

 

[smellysox]

2 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

 

Interesting that mlb is still doing that. Some teams aren't going to know what they have after 30 games. But now this is the halfway mark for the season. 

[TaylorStSox]

This is stupid. That's all. 

[southsider2k5]

21 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

This is stupid. That's all. 

See you next year!