gusguyman Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 I'm fine with this for this year, crazy times call for crazy ideas. Going forward though, wile I am not really in favor in expanding the playoffs, I wouldn't hate it either.... as long as there are byes or 5 game series at minimum! Baseball is just way too random to rely on short series in the playoffs, especially after playing at least twice as many regular season games as any other major US sport. But to do that, you almost certainly have to shorten the regular season. Weather is already a major issue in the early season, and the World Series is touching November as is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 52 minutes ago, gusguyman said: I'm fine with this for this year, crazy times call for crazy ideas. Going forward though, wile I am not really in favor in expanding the playoffs, I wouldn't hate it either.... as long as there are byes or 5 game series at minimum! Baseball is just way too random to rely on short series in the playoffs, especially after playing at least twice as many regular season games as any other major US sport. But to do that, you almost certainly have to shorten the regular season. Weather is already a major issue in the early season, and the World Series is touching November as is. I'd like nothing more to go to a 150 game season and expand playoffs to best of 7-7-9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said: You might as well just flip a coin honestly. In a 3 game series a 100-62 team against a 62-100 team will lose it roughly 35% of the time. This is beyond parody imo of even the biggest Manfred doom porners, including me. I don’t like your math here. Assuming the 100 win team has a 61.7% of winning each game and the 62 win team has a 38.3% of winning each game, the 62 win team would win the 3 game series 32.7% of the time. But it’s even lower than that because you can’t just say a team that is 100-62 will win 61.7% of their games. They did win that percentage of games in the regular season, but that was against a wide range of opponents. When playing a 62-100 team, their chances of winning an individual game has to be higher than 61.7%. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said: I don’t like your math here. Assuming the 100 win team has a 61.7% of winning each game and the 62 win team has a 38.3% of winning each game, the 62 win team would win the 3 game series 32.7% of the time. But it’s even lower than that because you can’t just say a team that is 100-62 will win 61.7% of their games. They did win that percentage of games in the regular season, but that was against a wide range of opponents. When playing a 62-100 team, their chances of winning an individual game has to be higher than 61.7%. Jesus christ dude I quick and dirtied it. But thanks for doing the actually math I couldn't find the T-82 this morning. The point I was making is of course unchanged. The horrible, no good team more than a 1/4 of the time will win over a monster, because SSS. Edited July 24, 2020 by chitownsportsfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 If the Yankees couldn't beat the Tigers with three home games in a playoff atmosphere, they don't deserve to compete further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 (edited) On 7/22/2020 at 8:12 PM, SoxAce said: This basically makes us a lock now IMO. I don't know about that. Our pitching staff still has an abundance of question marks, not as many if Gio and Keuchel are great. A healthy/recovered Gio could stabilize that bullpen and I'm hoping our closer has a good year. It is far from certain we'll have lights out closer and setup. Our pitching staff certainly has enough bodies with strong potential for Coop to work with. Our pitching staff if it blossoms and is developed properly could make us a powerhouse going forward with some of the stars we have on the field and the fact we have one of the best catchers in the game. We may be close to a lock to make the playoffs. One thing is certain. Coop has the bodies. Time for him to work his magic. i'll take the expanded playoff format one year if it means we get in. Edited July 24, 2020 by greg775 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 In- Yankees, Twins, Astros, A’s, Rays Out- Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Royals, Mariners Playing for 3 spots- White Sox, Indians (one or two in), Angels, Rangers I’ll say Rangers last out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 33 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said: Jesus christ dude I quick and dirtied it. But thanks for doing the actually math I couldn't find the T-82 this morning. The point I was making is of course unchanged. The horrible, no good team more than a 1/4 of the time will win over a monster, because SSS. Sorry to get all mathematical on you, but you have inspired me to dig even deeper into this! Let’s say the top seed has a 70% chance to win each individual game in their series. They would have an 83.7% chance to win a 5 game series and a 78.4% chance to win a 3 game series. As you can see, shrinking it to 3 games doesn’t really affect the outcome much. And if you think 70% is too generous, I calculated it again assuming the top seed has a 60% chance to win each game. In that case, the top seed would win a 5 game series 68.2% of the time and a 3 game series 64.8% of the time. Once again, there’s not much difference when you shrink it to a 3 gamer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 27 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said: Sorry to get all mathematical on you, but you have inspired me to dig even deeper into this! Let’s say the top seed has a 70% chance to win each individual game in their series. They would have an 83.7% chance to win a 5 game series and a 78.4% chance to win a 3 game series. As you can see, shrinking it to 3 games doesn’t really affect the outcome much. And if you think 70% is too generous, I calculated it again assuming the top seed has a 60% chance to win each game. In that case, the top seed would win a 5 game series 68.2% of the time and a 3 game series 64.8% of the time. Once again, there’s not much difference when you shrink it to a 3 gamer. I think you have to factor in a game 1 upset. The 100 win team is in BIG trouble if they slip up in game one. The pressure turns on quickly as they face elimination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, flavum said: In- Yankees, Twins, Astros, A’s, Rays Out- Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Royals, Mariners Playing for 3 spots- White Sox, Indians (one or two in), Angels, Rangers I’ll say Rangers last out https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds They have White Sox, Red Sox, Angels and Rangers fighting for 3 of 4 spots With Trout on the shelf though, huge advantage to both Sox and the Rangers if they can ever get fans into new ballpark. Edited July 24, 2020 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 1 hour ago, caulfield12 said: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds They have White Sox, Red Sox, Angels and Rangers fighting for 3 of 4 spots With Trout on the shelf though, huge advantage to both Sox and the Rangers if they can ever get fans into new ballpark. Trout is on the shelf? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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