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MADRIGAL CALLED UP! (Herrera DFA)


Bad Hombre

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29 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

It's a hell of a lot easier than finding a superstar and they passed on that opportunity.  

 

They're not tools teams pay for at the top of the draft. 

 

I disagree.  They lost an opportunity to draft a superstar.  

Wanting them to take the traditional risk in drafting a boom-or-bust guy does not negate the fact that draftees more often bust than make it.  You disagree with the draft strategy.  So be it.  It is still a strategy with reason behind it: https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

This chart shows that the surest way to get a major leaguer is to draft a high floor guy in the 1st round.  After that, the odds are decidedly against any team getting a major league player: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-many-mlb-draftees-make-it-to-the-majors/

Edited by asindc
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But Madrigal IS a high ceiling guy.  He’s not a floor guy.  
 

his floor is a guy with no power who can’t find holes and is completely useless.  
 

His ceiling is a guy who can control the strike zone and barrel historically better than almost anybody ever.  It’s weird. 

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23 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

I said at the time I liked the stuff of Stewart and Groshans hit tool with power at SS. I have no idea what happened to Stewart last I heard he had an arm injury and fell off the face of the world. Atlanta got it's pick back though.

Groshans is one of the top prospects in baseball and if we offered Madrigal for him the Blue Jays would laugh to our faces so lets not pretend there weren't options. High upside options which so far have paid dividends.

He has 83 at bats in low A- with 2hr's, and is likely a 3b. I get for some people upside is based around power, but statements like this are exactly what I was referencing - laugh in our faces?

Prospect hyperbole is my favorite.

 

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1 minute ago, Jerksticks said:

But Madrigal IS a high ceiling guy.  He’s not a floor guy.  
 

his floor is a guy with no power who can’t find holes and is completely useless.  
 

His ceiling is a guy who can control the strike zone and barrel historically better than almost anybody ever.  It’s weird. 

Everyone talks about Madrigal having a low ceiling. I look at it the other way. The only thing he doesn’t do well is hit for power. If he starts hitting 30-40 doubles and 10-15 homers in a few years ala Whit Merrifield, he’s an absolute monster.

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49 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Madrigal is not going to average a .400 OBP over his career. He just won't. Also the projections I posted earlier aren't even analysis they are what his projected stats are going forward based on the predictive modelling  of his minor league batted ball data and to be honest to me they seem low but I also recognize as a fan I tend to be overly optimistic too. The only difference is I don't have my head completely in the clouds like other posters.

A ~.400 career obp is a realistic CEILING. No one is saying that’s a guarantee or the most likely outcome like you’re seeking to assert.

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Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And Dansby Swanson and Mickey Moniak were recent first overall picks. What’s your point?

Point is, it's easy to draft all-star players in later rounds- teams just haven't thought of doing it.

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I do understand why people didn't like the Madrigal pick but the framing of the whole thing is really blowing it out of proportion, I think. People do the same thing in the NFL draft, just on a different scale ("I think Player X is fine I just don't like taking him with the 14th pick") but it really... just doesn't matter? The comparison isn't really between *just* "probably above average player" and "guy who had a 30 WAR career" it's just as likely to be "probably above average" and "total bust who never makes it past AAA."

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9 minutes ago, Tony said:

Dustin Pedroia was a 2nd round pick by the Boston Red Sox. 

At age 22, Pedroia (5'9, 170 lbs.) put up an .810 OPS in AAA (his 2nd season at AAA)

At age 22, Madrigal (5'8 175 lbs.) put up an .822 OPS in AAA (his first season at AAA)

 

Oh god please keep us updated on how this works out year to year.  n:lolhitting

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3 minutes ago, Tony said:

@Harold's Leg Lift is also on record from August 1, 2019, saying if the Mets came to the Sox and offered Michael Conforto for Andrew Vaughn, Nick Madrigal and Dylan Cease that he would 100% take the deal. 

Probably not the best judge of baseball acumen 

Did he really? My god, what a horrific trade that would be for the Sox.

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3 minutes ago, lostfan said:

I do understand why people didn't like the Madrigal pick but the framing of the whole thing is really blowing it out of proportion, I think. People do the same thing in the NFL draft, just on a different scale ("I think Player X is fine I just don't like taking him with the 14th pick") but it really... just doesn't matter? The comparison isn't really between *just* "probably above average player" and "guy who had a 30 WAR career" it's just as likely to be "probably above average" and "total bust who never makes it past AAA."

Yeah, with hindsight to boot. And Madrigal went 4 with some wondering if he'd get there. You pick him at 4 or you don't get him. That's the reality. Altuve scratched and clawed to get a FA tryout, if anyone thought Merrifield would be what he is today, he's a top ten pick, Pedroia made it to #65 because people thought his performance outpaced his tools.

Madrigal was drafted higher than all these guys because his only tool to develop is power. I hope he's in range as any of these players careers, if he is it is a great pick. There will likely be players picked after him with good or even better careers, but you only get a shot at one of them in the first.

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14 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’ve always thought of Madrigal’s most likely outcome as Placido Polanco. Placido wasn’t a “superstar” by any means but he was a damn fine ballplayer.

It's funny because I was actually thinking the same earlier and so I looked. Polanco had many years with an OPS over .750. He won a few GG's too. This is a good comparison and we should all be thrilled if Madrigal ends up with PP's career.

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2 hours ago, OmarComing25 said:

Going back to 1990, the best #4 picks have been:

- Ryan Zimmerman (38.2 WAR)

- Alex Fernandez (28.5 WAR)

- Kerry Wood (23.9 WAR)

- Gavin Floyd (16.0 WAR)

- Kevin Gausman (13.7 WAR)

- Dmitri Young (12.5 WAR)

- Kyle Schwarber (9.3 WAR)

Only 5 made the All-Star team (and 3 of those were mediocre players in Young, Jeffrey Hammonds, and Jason Grilli).

Only 3 ever had a season worth 4 WAR or above. The history of #4 picks is very unremarkable. And it's not like the picks since 2010 who haven't had much time to make an impact are exactly killing it either. Only McKay and Schwarber have seemingly amounted to anything and it's obviously too early to say anything on McKay.

I can understand wanting a prospect with a higher ceiling at #4 but this idea that you're looking for a "generational hitter" is just being unrealistic.

This. I know everyone wants a star here, but if you end up with 7 years of a starting level player, you have won at the draft,  even at #4.

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1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

It's a hell of a lot easier than finding a superstar and they passed on that opportunity.  

 

They're not tools teams pay for at the top of the draft. 

 

I disagree.  They lost an opportunity to draft a superstar.  

Or to draft a bust, which happens all to often.

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1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Was Kyle Schwarber an example of shooting for the stars at #4? I know most Sox fans were enamored with that pick. He hits a ton of bombs and yet he’s averaged ~2.5 WAR across 3.5 seasons and I think last year is about the best season you could ask from him.

Schwarber at #4 was considered an overdraft at the time. He was considered to be a teens level pick.

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19 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

High floor kind of guys are underrated in the draft process. Remember when everybody completely HATED the idea of drafting Aaron Nola?

 

How did that work out?

Yea I remember that well

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