Sox playoff chances sit at 100%, 3rd in AL for WS odds

[southsider2k5]

 

[Jose Abreu]

And Fangraphs has us at 78%

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

62.9% vs. 78.1% probability a pretty big disparity between models...but both with Sox in 7th.

[caulfield12]

Still 7th in AL despite some terribly frustrating managerial decisions.

7. WHITE SOX  70.9%

8. Red Sox  41.8%

9. Tigers 33.2%

10.  Angels 27.3%

11. Rangers 25.8%

12. Blue Jays 24.0%

 

Makes the match-ups with DET (and likely no Cardinals) over the next ten days even MORE significant.

[southsider2k5]

Realistically, We wanted to see them go about .500 against Cleveland and Minnesota, and then come out ahead of the rest of the schedule. So far they have gone 3-6 against them, and 5-2 against the rest.  It really feels like .500 is going to be the breaking point for the playoffs if they don't manage to get in the first two slots.  When you also factor in losing two of the their top 5 starters, a key member of the pen, plus the opt out of Kopech, and 16 games into the season, they haven't had their entire starting line up on the field for one game, I think .500 is a solid achievement so far.  We will see what health and performance look like going forward, but I still feel pretty good about this team getting into the dance.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Realistically, We wanted to see them go about .500 against Cleveland and Minnesota, and then come out ahead of the rest of the schedule. So far they have gone 3-6 against them, and 5-2 against the rest.  It really feels like .500 is going to be the breaking point for the playoffs if they don't manage to get in the first two slots.  When you also factor in losing two of the their top 5 starters, a key member of the pen, plus the opt out of Kopech, and 16 games into the season, they haven't had their entire starting line up on the field for one game, I think .500 is a solid achievement so far.  We will see what health and performance look like going forward, but I still feel pretty good about this team getting into the dance.

Robert looking like he belonged among the Top 10 players in baseball, at least on potential impact as a rookie, really amped up the expectations, perhaps unrealistically.

Jimenez, Moncada, Anderson, Vaughn and Robert comprise perhaps the best young group of position players of any team in baseball.

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Robert looking like he belonged among the Top 10 players in baseball, at least on potential impact as a rookie, really amped up the expectations, perhaps unrealistically.

Jimenez, Moncada, Anderson, Vaughn and Robert comprise perhaps the best young group of position players of any team in baseball.

One of those guys won't be here until May 2021.

One of those guys has missed most of the season so far.

One of those guys is in a gigantic slump.

They will get there, but I think most of us hoped that this core could move up the playoff date, but I think the smart money has always started around 2021 for this team really hitting the big time.  The pitching injuries aren't helping that, not to mention our FA hitters have been largely hurt too.

[ptatc]

40 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

One of those guys won't be here until May 2021.

One of those guys has missed most of the season so far.

One of those guys is in a gigantic slump.

They will get there, but I think most of us hoped that this core could move up the playoff date, but I think the smart money has always started around 2021 for this team really hitting the big time.  The pitching injuries aren't helping that, not to mention our FA hitters have been largely hurt too.

The good thing it is that with all of this they are still at .500 and have a decent shot at the playoffs with the format this year. The pitching depth won't be as much of an issue in the playoffs. This year is a good progression for the young players and should help for next year.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, ptatc said:

The good thing it is that with all of this they are still at .500 and have a decent shot at the playoffs with the format this year. The pitching depth won't be as much of an issue in the playoffs. This year is a good progression for the young players and should help for next year.

I know a lot of people are down right now, but seeing where we are with what we have faced, I am actually more optimistic than I was.  There is a lot of upside for this group over the last 44 games.

[ptatc]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I know a lot of people are down right now, but seeing where we are with what we have faced, I am actually more optimistic than I was.  There is a lot of upside for this group over the last 44 games.

Agreed. Lots of adversity and have mostly played two of the better teams in the AL.

[caulfield12]

Here's another way to think of it.

We have 1/2 of the Cuban National Team, if they were to be reassembled and put back together for an Olympic or WBC run.

Robert, Moncada, Abreu and Grandal would be starters.

Jimenez, probably for the DR, along with EE as the DH.   Mazara would likely be an outfield starter for Puerto Rico.

Madrigal for Team USA if they went with under 25 players.   Anderson, at least on Team USA at SS (would probably go with Corey Seager or Story.)    You can even argue James McCann as starting or at least back-up catcher for Team USA.

Leury would likely grab a utility role, as well.

That's just too much talent NOT to make the playoffs, as long as they have a decent bullpen, defense and enough starting pitching from spots 3-5.

What other team could you make that same argument for, at least in terms of spots 1-9 + DH.

 

[EloyJenkins]

2 hours ago, ptatc said:

Agreed. Lots of adversity and have mostly played two of the better teams in the AL.

Cleveland's pitching staff is one of the better ones in recent memory. Sox battled yesterday. Season all hinges on another starter coming up big. Giolito and Keuchel are good to go and Cease is starting to makes some strides. 2 of Rodon, Lopez, Gio or Dunning have to stay healthy the rest of the season and give a solid 5 each start. The bullpen has been great so far, but being 2 starters down is just not going to work even in a sprint. 

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Realistically, We wanted to see them go about .500 against Cleveland and Minnesota, and then come out ahead of the rest of the schedule. So far they have gone 3-6 against them, and 5-2 against the rest.  It really feels like .500 is going to be the breaking point for the playoffs if they don't manage to get in the first two slots.  When you also factor in losing two of the their top 5 starters, a key member of the pen, plus the opt out of Kopech, and 16 games into the season, they haven't had their entire starting line up on the field for one game, I think .500 is a solid achievement so far.  We will see what health and performance look like going forward, but I still feel pretty good about this team getting into the dance.

How many other teams are dealing with a similar level of injuries, opt-outs, and infected individuals? It doesn't seem to me like we get to complain about missing an unusual number of people and use that as an excuse we have to "factor in" if every team has similar numbers of people out. 

[SonofaRoache]

23 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

How many other teams are dealing with a similar level of injuries, opt-outs, and infected individuals? It doesn't seem to me like we get to complain about missing an unusual number of people and use that as an excuse we have to "factor in" if every team has similar numbers of people out. 

Not to mention our guys go through this every year. Rodon is always hurt. Kopech has only pitched in a few games in three seasons. Anderson, Eloy, and Moncada get nagging injuries. Healthy or not, Lopez is more miss than hit. These things need to be accounted for in any season as they are likely ro happen to everyone. 

[ptatc]

57 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

How many other teams are dealing with a similar level of injuries, opt-outs, and infected individuals? It doesn't seem to me like we get to complain about missing an unusual number of people and use that as an excuse we have to "factor in" if every team has similar numbers of people out. 

I'm going to guess that losing 3/5 of the starting rotation and 4/9 starters for some time ranks right up there at the top. That's tough to do in less than 20 games.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

I'm going to guess that losing 3/5 of the starting rotation and 4/9 starters for some time ranks right up there at the top. That's tough to do in less than 20 games.

If you're counting opt-outs, I think there's several teams in that boat right now, and that's while ignoring the Cardinals and Marlins. The Astros are missing Verlander, Urquidy, and almost their whole bullpen. The Mets are missing Wacha, Syndegaard, Stroman just opted out, and Degrom has a finger issue, Cano, Lowrie, Nunez, Marisnick, and an opt-out by Cespedes. We play this game every year, this year we just also have 2 teams that lost 50% of their players at once.

[Chisoxfn]

6 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Realistically, We wanted to see them go about .500 against Cleveland and Minnesota, and then come out ahead of the rest of the schedule. So far they have gone 3-6 against them, and 5-2 against the rest.  It really feels like .500 is going to be the breaking point for the playoffs if they don't manage to get in the first two slots.  When you also factor in losing two of the their top 5 starters, a key member of the pen, plus the opt out of Kopech, and 16 games into the season, they haven't had their entire starting line up on the field for one game, I think .500 is a solid achievement so far.  We will see what health and performance look like going forward, but I still feel pretty good about this team getting into the dance.

IF you told me the team would have had all the injuries it did and still be .500 - I'd tell you I was a happy camper.  I still am. The team is due for some reversion in the pen, but it is due to get some better offensive performances due and getting guys back should help as well.  

[almagest]

43 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you're counting opt-outs, I think there's several teams in that boat right now, and that's while ignoring the Cardinals and Marlins. The Astros are missing Verlander, Urquidy, and almost their whole bullpen. The Mets are missing Wacha, Syndegaard, Stroman just opted out, and Degrom has a finger issue, Cano, Lowrie, Nunez, Marisnick, and an opt-out by Cespedes. We play this game every year, this year we just also have 2 teams that lost 50% of their players at once.

Astros are 6-9, Mets are 7-9. Sox 8-8. Astros definitely underperforming the most so far. And a lot of the Sox struggles are due to young players being inconsistent - they're right about where I expect them to be right now.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If you're counting opt-outs, I think there's several teams in that boat right now, and that's while ignoring the Cardinals and Marlins. The Astros are missing Verlander, Urquidy, and almost their whole bullpen. The Mets are missing Wacha, Syndegaard, Stroman just opted out, and Degrom has a finger issue, Cano, Lowrie, Nunez, Marisnick, and an opt-out by Cespedes. We play this game every year, this year we just also have 2 teams that lost 50% of their players at once.

Stroman is just signaling his intention to sign with the White Sox while still healthy...but wait, is he no longer a FA or he’s just forgoing all his salary/benefits this year? 

[Chisoxfn]

16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Stroman is just signaling his intention to sign with the White Sox while still healthy...but wait, is he no longer a FA or he’s just forgoing all his salary/benefits this year? 

He will be a free agent still; he just won't get his salary this year.  

[southsider2k5]

 

[southsider2k5]

Sox sitting at #3 for LOB

https://twitter.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/1293239310574067712?s=20 https://twitter.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/1293239310574067712?s=20

 

[southsider2k5]

 

[Big Hurtin]

 

[caulfield12]

6th  Astros 82.2%

 

7th  White Sox  69.4%

8th  Red Sox 37.1%

9th  Angels 34.5%

10th Tigers 33.2%