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Sox playoff chances sit at 100%, 3rd in AL for WS odds


southsider2k5

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20 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

FG is 96.6%, Sox are now 6th best odds.  They have actually passed Cleveland, even though the Sox are a half game behind them. 

Bref is at 93.7%, and 7th best odds overall.

This is all I need to see to say that the expanded playoff thing absolutely cannot continue. 

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4 minutes ago, mqr said:

This is all I need to see to say that the expanded playoff thing absolutely cannot continue. 

Its just such a shitty situation for the top seeds.  In a 162 game season, you go 110-52 and then lose 2 of game2 to a team that went 79-83 in the 1/8 seed game and POOF - season over.  Dumb.  

It works for this season.  But it will be a travesty if this structure continues after 2020.  

Edited by ChiSox59
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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Its just such a shitty situation for the top seeds.  In a 162 game season, you go 110-52 and then lose 2/3 game to a team that went 79-83 in the 1/8 game and POOF - season over.  Dumb.  

It works for this season.  But it will be a travesty if this structure continues after 2020.  

It's more that it's removed any and all tension from the tail end of the season.

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5 minutes ago, mqr said:

It's more that it's removed any and all tension from the tail end of the season.

That too, but I certainly wouldn't say that is the biggest weakness.  There will still be some tension for the last couple spots the last weekend of the season, I would guess.  It just in general makes the regular season pointless.  In baseball any team can with a 3 game series.  To work all season to win your division, and then have to play some upstart 8 seed in a 3 game series is just terrible structure.  I've always felt that the first round should be 7 games pre-covid season rules.  

IF you're going to do any sort of playoff expansion, it should be 3 division winners and 3 wild card.  Top 2 records of the division winners get byes.  Division winner #3 vs WC #3, WC #1 vs. WC #2 in a 5 game series.  Division winner #1 gets to pick their opponent in the next round.  Only real negative to that is that the best two teams in each league have to sit around for a week, which is tough in baseball.   I think you'd also have to try to go to a more balanced schedule if you did this.  

Edited by ChiSox59
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4 minutes ago, mqr said:

It's more that it's removed any and all tension from the tail end of the season.

That is because of the dumb rule that 2nd place finishers get seeds 4 through 6. 2nd place finishers can make the playoffs this year, but that should be their only reward. After the division winners, seeds should be based on record. If they were, the races for home field would be a lot more fun to watch. 

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Ties will be broken by head-to-head record, followed by better record within a team's division and record in last 20 games within the division. If there is still a tie, the standard would be last 21 games within a division, then 22, etc.

Friday's game with the Royals is game 20 in the division, so if it went to a fourth tiebreaker scenario, that game is technically big, 

 

Edited by flavum
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On 8/25/2020 at 11:25 AM, ChiSox59 said:

That too, but I certainly wouldn't say that is the biggest weakness.  There will still be some tension for the last couple spots the last weekend of the season, I would guess.  It just in general makes the regular season pointless.  In baseball any team can with a 3 game series.  To work all season to win your division, and then have to play some upstart 8 seed in a 3 game series is just terrible structure.  I've always felt that the first round should be 7 games pre-covid season rules.  

IF you're going to do any sort of playoff expansion, it should be 3 division winners and 3 wild card.  Top 2 records of the division winners get byes.  Division winner #3 vs WC #3, WC #1 vs. WC #2 in a 5 game series.  Division winner #1 gets to pick their opponent in the next round.  Only real negative to that is that the best two teams in each league have to sit around for a week, which is tough in baseball.   I think you'd also have to try to go to a more balanced schedule if you did this.  

There should be no expansion of playoff teams until theres expansion to 32 teams

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Seven AL teams with a 97.5% or higher chance of making the playoffs, plus Blue Jays with 65%. Are we really rooting for seeding? Empty parks and no re-seeding after the first round (that you can be gone after losing 2 of 3), the AL is playing meaningless games for the next month. Yes, we want our players to do well, stay healthy, and get wins. But there are no tough losses or big wins for AL teams in the next month. Once the playoffs start, nobody will care who won the divisions...and especially after the quick 2 of 3 first round.

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17 minutes ago, flavum said:

Seven AL teams with a 97.5% or higher chance of making the playoffs, plus Blue Jays with 65%. Are we really rooting for seeding? Empty parks and no re-seeding after the first round (that you can be gone after losing 2 of 3), the AL is playing meaningless games for the next month. Yes, we want our players to do well, stay healthy, and get wins. But there are no tough losses or big wins for AL teams in the next month. Once the playoffs start, nobody will care who won the divisions...and especially after the quick 2 of 3 first round.

At this point my goal is "win the division". I'll still be scoreboard watching and checking the standings.

Less concerned about jockeying for seeding and matchups, and more interested in planting the flag that establishes we're the best in the AL Central now and moving forward.

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1 hour ago, pcq said:

The ALC race right now is the best one to be had and the Sox are the great unknown. 

I think my favorite part about this is that we're still waiting for some guys to heat up (Moncada, Mazara, EE), help is on the way (Madrigal, Yolmer solely to spell Moncada, hopefully Bummer), there can be surprise call ups (Vaughn), and trades involved.

This team currently has the best offense in baseball and has room to grow.

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52 minutes ago, flavum said:

Seven AL teams with a 97.5% or higher chance of making the playoffs, plus Blue Jays with 65%. Are we really rooting for seeding? Empty parks and no re-seeding after the first round (that you can be gone after losing 2 of 3), the AL is playing meaningless games for the next month. Yes, we want our players to do well, stay healthy, and get wins. But there are no tough losses or big wins for AL teams in the next month. Once the playoffs start, nobody will care who won the divisions...and especially after the quick 2 of 3 first round.

This isn't true. The White winning this division this year would be huge for our young guys. Even if we flame out in the best of three, it will be something to build upon. It will start a standard of success for guys. 

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