Tim Anderson Trade Value (Fangraphs Trade Value Series)

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

I've always really enjoyed Fangraphs trade value series - it's an interesting look into how some insiders value players. Every year there's someone left off that feels a bit off, but I can never remember a time where a guy was left of the list and the HM entirely, who was as good as Tim Anderson is.

First, Fangraphs technically have not added the final 20 - but Tim Anderson is not one of them. There are only two spots left for people who were not on the list last year, and I think it's all but guaranteed those two editions who are in the top 20 are Robert and Flaherty. That means Tim Anderson didn't make the top 75 most valuable assets in baseball but Paul DeJong and Jorge Polanco did.

That doesn't make much sense to me; there's no chance I'd trade Anderson SU for DeJong or Polanco and it's not because I'm a Sox fan. Tim Anderson is signed through 2024 for under 10 million per year (47.5 total), and the last two years are team options. Everyone in the game knows that growth, development and improvement is not linear - last year there was doubt about Anderson's BABIP being sustainable. I read multiple profiles stating that his BABIP would regress therefore his overall offensive game would. I wrote an article about this, and posted some of the thoughts here previously, but the jist of it was; if Anderson can improve his power output, continue to cut down on the strike outs, and improve his walk rate just slightly, the BABIP regression would be negligibly felt, if at all. What has Anderson done this year? Grown his power even more than I thought, lowered his K-Rate for the FIFTH year in a row, and improved his walk rate. What we have seen is a still inflated BABIP (416) because he's destroying the baseball (54% Hard hit rate via statcast and 71% hard hit rate via batted ball!!!) and he never hits IFFB (4%), but his batting average is a lot closer to his BABIP (380 to 415) than it was last year (330 to 400), because his power has spiked. This means even with regression to his BABIP, Tim is still a 340ish hitter this year with huge power. 

What do you say, Tim Anderson has to be one of the top 75 most valuable trade chips in baseball does he now?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-trade-value-21-to-30/

To read more from the series, click above.

 

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I've always really enjoyed Fangraphs trade value series - it's an interesting look into how some insiders value players. Every year there's someone left off that feels a bit off, but I can never remember a time where a guy was left of the list and the HM entirely, who was as good as Tim Anderson is.

First, Fangraphs technically have not added the final 20 - but Tim Anderson is not one of them. There are only two spots left for people who were not on the list last year, and I think it's all but guaranteed those two editions who are in the top 20 are Robert and Flaherty. That means Tim Anderson didn't make the top 75 most valuable assets in baseball but Paul DeJong and Jorge Polanco did.

That doesn't make much sense to me; there's no chance I'd trade Anderson SU for DeJong or Polanco and it's not because I'm a Sox fan. Tim Anderson is signed through 2024 for under 10 million per year (47.5 total), and the last two years are team options. Everyone in the game knows that growth, development and improvement is not linear - last year there was doubt about Anderson's BABIP being sustainable. I read multiple profiles stating that his BABIP would regress therefore his overall offensive game would. I wrote an article about this, and posted some of the thoughts here previously, but the jist of it was; if Anderson can improve his power output, continue to cut down on the strike outs, and improve his walk rate just slightly, the BABIP regression would be negligibly felt, if at all. What has Anderson done this year? Grown his power even more than I thought, lowered his K-Rate for the FIFTH year in a row, and improved his walk rate. What we have seen is a still inflated BABIP (416) because he's destroying the baseball (54% Hard hit rate via statcast and 71% hard hit rate via batted ball!!!) and he never hits IFFB (4%), but his batting average is a lot closer to his BABIP (380 to 415) than it was last year (330 to 400), because his power has spiked. This means even with regression to his BABIP, Tim is still a 340ish hitter this year with huge power. 

What do you say, Tim Anderson has to be one of the top 75 most valuable trade chips in baseball does he now?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-trade-value-21-to-30/

To read more from the series, click above.

 

If he improves his defense to at least league average, Top 35-50.

 

[wegner]

His maturation as a hitter has been on great display lately, especially last night.  He is uber valuable to the White Sox in particular imho, therefore I think I would probably be annoyed at how low they would list his trade value if they did list him.

 

Edited August 19, 2020 by wegner

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, wegner said:

His maturation as a hitter has been on great display lately, especially last night.  He is uber valuable to the White Sox in particular imho, therefore I think I would probably annoyed at how low they would list his trade value if they did list him.

I said last night two things really stuck out to me;

1. Anderson moved his feet in every single at bat; sometimes pitch to pitch based on the count. That is understanding how you're being attacked and pitched on another level. Most guys aren't moving around that much in the box.

2. The home run he hit; I went back and watched it frame to frame. Anderson didn't even move his hands towards the zone until the ball was 6-12 inches in front of the plate. That's hand speed you just don't see everyday; it's truly remarkable. It's hard to see, but look at the still below: He doesn't even bring his hands and bat forward until the pitch is basically over the plate. There are probably only 5 guys in the game who can react that late; which is exactly why he dominates now. He sits on off speed the entire game and reacts to fastballs because his hands are so quick. Almost no one else can do that; that's why he crushes off-speed stuff.

[ChiSox59]

Giolito only guy in the 20-50 range so far.  Eloy HM.  Have to imagine Robert is top 20, and Moncada has to be as well since he isn't mentioned yet.  

Doubt TA makes the list, but I feel like he should have been an HM.  

[chitownsportsfan]

vlad guerero junior, you can only laugh.  This is the limitations of using projected WAR as a fill in for trade value.  Any sabermetrician will tell you WAR is not a forward looking metric.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Giolito only guy in the 20-50 range so far.  Eloy HM.  Have to imagine Robert is top 20, and Moncada has to be as well since he isn't mentioned yet.  

Doubt TA makes the list, but I feel like he should have been an HM.  

Someone let Tim know about this level of disrespect! He'll love it. 

And yes, the HM thing made it so much worse for me. Robert and Moncada in the top 20 for sure.

[wegner]

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I said last night two things really stuck out to me;

1. Anderson moved his feet in every single at bat; sometimes pitch to pitch based on the count. That is understanding how you're being attacked and pitched on another level. Most guys aren't moving around that much in the box.

2. The home run he hit; I went back and watched it frame to frame. Anderson didn't even move his hands towards the zone until the ball was 6-12 inches in front of the plate. That's hand speed you just don't see everyday; it's truly remarkable. It's hard to see, but look at the still below: He doesn't even bring his hands and bat forward until the pitch is basically over the plate. There are probably only 5 guys in the game who can react that late; which is exactly why he dominates now. He sits on off speed the entire game and reacts to fastballs because his hands are so quick. Almost no one else can do that; that's why he crushes off-speed stuff.

Terrific analysis, Ray.  Thanks.  Adding those abilities and pure smarts in the box with his leadership makes him invaluable to the White Sox.  Like either Steve or Jason said last night, it is no coincidence that the team starting winning again when TA was back in the lineup.

[chitownsportsfan]

He has the quickest top hand action in the league right now, it's not even close.  He was up there like he was in batting practice.

[Dominikk85]

He definitely is an asset and in his prime at 27 but he also has bad plate discipline and is a questionable defender.

Now baez is pretty similar but he is an elite defender while tim has not so much to fall back on if his babip dips.

[Dominikk85]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

vlad guerero junior, you can only laugh.  This is the limitations of using projected WAR as a fill in for trade value.  Any sabermetrician will tell you WAR is not a forward looking metric.

Vlad was ranked the top prospect in baseball. War or not that means people expect him to become a star. 

He has a weakness in his profile (too many grounders like hosmer) and his body has gone the wrong direction but he is like 21 and people still expect him to get better and become a star.

 

Changes are needed though.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

He has the quickest top hand action in the league right now, it's not even close.  He was up there like he was in batting practice.

Amazing how quick he goes from load to ball. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

He definitely is an asset and in his prime at 27 but he also has bad plate discipline and is a questionable defender.

Now baez is pretty similar but he is an elite defender while tim has not so much to fall back on if his babip dips.

I don't think you could argue, using eyes and data from the last 1+ year, that Jorge Polanco is more valuable than Anderson. Not a knock on Polanco at all.

Tim's plate discipline numbers this year are very positive. 

[soxfan49]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

vlad guerero junior, you can only laugh.  This is the limitations of using projected WAR as a fill in for trade value.  Any sabermetrician will tell you WAR is not a forward looking metric.

Didn't you use WAR over the weekend to compare what Eloy Jimenez can be one day in relation to Avi Garcia? You're exactly right- WAR isn't a forward looking metric

[chitownsportsfan]

45 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Didn't you use WAR over the weekend to compare what Eloy Jimenez can be one day in relation to Avi Garcia? You're exactly right- WAR isn't a forward looking metric

Yikes.  If you want me to make it simpler I will: an eloy that slashes 250/310/550 is functionally equivalent to what Avi contributed.  Man I swear some of you guys try and play "gotchas" when it's you getting got.

My point of course of the Fangraphs "trade value" column, and I've made this for awhile is that projected WAR is not at all how MLB GMs evaluate trades.  It's a component sure, but it's not even close to the main one, and it's almost ALL FGs uses in their rankings.

Look at the fat, out of shape and sloppy and oh by the way isn't hitting Vlad Jr and tell me he's more valuable at this moment than TA around MLB.  With a straight face?  Come on fangraphs.

[Jose Abreu]

30 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Yikes.  If you want me to make it simpler I will: an eloy that slashes 250/310/550 is functionally equivalent to what Avi contributed. 

I wasn't around for the other thread with this debate but Avi Garcia has never had a slugging percentage even close to .550 (highest was .506). I get that you're going for a low-OBP high-SLG archetype, but Avi is a bad example of that, and Eloy will probably be a .350+ OBP guy in his prime IMO

[chitownsportsfan]

19 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I wasn't around for the other thread with this debate but Avi Garcia has never had a slugging percentage even close to .550 (highest was .506). I get that you're going for a low-OBP high-SLG archetype, but Avi is a bad example of that, and Eloy will probably be a .350+ OBP guy in his prime IMO

I was just comparing their overall value, even tho they will get to 2 WAR in different ways.  Eloy was so highly rated because guys that can ISO 300 and hit 300 are the rarest of breeds. So far he's more of a guy that hits 250 with 40 bombs.

Anyways I need to calm down a bit it's been a stressful week for me (mom had surgery among other things) and we're all here because we love the Sox.  

[Jose Abreu]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I was just comparing their overall value, even tho they will get to 2 WAR in different ways.  Eloy was so highly rated because guys that can ISO 300 and hit 300 are the rarest of breeds. So far he's more of a guy that hits 250 with 40 bombs.

 Anyways I need to calm down a bit it's been a stressful week for me (mom had surgery among other things) and we're all here because we love the Sox.  

Makes sense, I just couldn't tell if you were trying to imply that Eloy will remain like this forever. I'm still quite optimistic that he has a 6-7 year run of .300/.350/.580 kind of years. Hope your week gets better

[Dominikk85]

3 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Yikes.  If you want me to make it simpler I will: an eloy that slashes 250/310/550 is functionally equivalent to what Avi contributed.  Man I swear some of you guys try and play "gotchas" when it's you getting got.

My point of course of the Fangraphs "trade value" column, and I've made this for awhile is that projected WAR is not at all how MLB GMs evaluate trades.  It's a component sure, but it's not even close to the main one, and it's almost ALL FGs uses in their rankings.

Look at the fat, out of shape and sloppy and oh by the way isn't hitting Vlad Jr and tell me he's more valuable at this moment than TA around MLB.  With a straight face?  Come on fangraphs.

If course GMs use projected WAR or their own version of it. What else would they use?

[CeaseAndExist]

This year's "trade value" rankings is the worst by far Fangraphs has done. Mainly because they don't have Kiley McDaniel anymore to do it. Instead it's Cubs fan Craig Edwards, who is just awful and spends more time complaining the season wasn't canceled than he does actually doing his homework on guys.

Eloy and TA both should have been in the 30-50 range. Wouldn't be surprised to see him leave off Robert and Moncada too. He's an awful writer and it's painful to read his analysis

[chw42]

Robert is ranked 14th. Moncada isn't on the list yet, but I'd honestly be surprised if he makes it in the top 10. Either they forgot about him or he's gonna be top 10. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Robert is ranked 14th. Moncada isn't on the list yet, but I'd honestly be surprised if he makes it in the top 10. Either they forgot about him or he's gonna be top 10. 

He's already a lock for top 10, it's just where they put him. He didnt fall out of the rankings from last year; they already listed those guys.

[chitownsportsfan]

30 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Robert is ranked 14th. Moncada isn't on the list yet, but I'd honestly be surprised if he makes it in the top 10. Either they forgot about him or he's gonna be top 10. 

He'll be top 10.

[mmmmmbeeer]

Not sure if any of y'all heard the White Sox Talk Podcast (Garfein) this week with TA on it but, man, really impressive interview.  He's quickly become a professional hitter.  Hearing him break down at-bats and sequences, coupled with his regular in-game discussions with Abreu regarding the pitcher on the mound, tells me that what he's doing is far from a fluke and he's bound to become an even better hitter.

A team leader, becoming a good to great hitter, and working on defense...TA7 has quickly become a force on this team and the league.  That he's not top 100 in this list is a joke.

[Dominikk85]

Moncada 7th

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-trade-value-1-to-10/