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8-21 GT: Sox @ Cubs (7:15pm)


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Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Lol when was that 1906 ?  I'd never write it out of the history books . Easy big fella ! I just was making a suggestion that perhaps that was not exactly what he was looking for.

I know—was joking/doesn’t come through in text form.  But the answer will always be 66-62 to me.  I’m giving nothing away! 

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5 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Alright boys, tonight the Sox begin an epic three game series against the Cubs at Wrigley.  The Sox are currently on a five game win streak, coming off a dominating four game sweep of the Tigers.  Meanwhile, the Cubs are 5-5 over their last ten after an 11-3 start to the season.  Momentum should be in our favor, but we’ll facing the Cubs’ top three starters this weekend, so no doubt we got a real challenge ahead of ourselves.

Kicking off the series for the Cubs will be 36 year old Jon Lester.  A legit former #1 starter, Lester has really started to age out over the last couple years and is now more of a middle-of-the-rotation type type guy.  His average four seam velocity has dropped below 90 MPH, which has caused him to leverage his cutter far more often than in years past.  As you’ll see in the StatCast info below, he’s really struggling to generate whiffs this year and it appears an inability to locate his curveball is a big part of the problem.  Despite a nice looking ERA, we may be catching him at just the right time as his peripherals scream of a guy ready to be lit up by an offense as dangerous as ours.  In terms of how our hitters have faced against Lester, six players have 10+ plate appearances against him and of those Abreu, McCann, Yoan, & Edwin have all been good to great while Timmy and in particular Grandal have really struggled.  With Yasmani still dealing with back issues, giving McCann the start at catcher is a no-brainer.  I really like our chances tonight if Robert is back in CF and we rock the right lineup (no Grandal or Mazara preferably).

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For the Sox, we’ll have Dallas Keuchel going.  He sits at 3-2 with a 3.58 FIP on the season.  The big thing that stands out for Dallas this year is his K rate being down substantially, currently sitting at 4.91 / 9 vs. normally operating in the 7 / 9 range.  He still seems to be generating a normal amount of whiffs (thanks to a big increase in his change-up usage), so hopefully this just a SSS bias and not a sign of things to come.  The good news is he continues to generate a lot of ground-balls and weak contact (despite a massive reduction in the use of his sinker) and has averaged nearly six innings a start this year.  While the Cubs have a scary offense, two of their main right-handers are struggling in Bryant & Báez, and Dallas has been very good in his career against lefties.  Hopefully that gives us an edge vs. a lineup that includes  Rizzo, Schwarber, Kipnis, Heyward, & Happ.

With Hendricks & Darvish starting the next two games, winning tonight becomes of the utmost importance.  Hopefully we get the offense we saw against Detroit and not the one vs. St. Louis, as we’ll need our bats to be locked & loaded this weekend.

Let’s fucking go boys!!!!!!

I absolutely love these breakdowns here! Thanks for doing this. 

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If the Cubs are pitching their best starters, shouldn't we start our best starter(s)?  By that I mean we should do a game where we start Foster for two innings and then bring in Detwiler for four or so innings. Those two have been our best pitchers so far this year. If I remember correctly, neither one has given up a run. In fact, I've watched most of our games this year and I don't remember either one ever letting anyone even get to 2nd base. 

I don't understand why the Sox (Renteria) hasn't gone with this combination as an opener/ starter combo yet. It seems so obvious to me. 

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2 hours ago, ScooterMcGee said:

LOVE that the pitchers don't hit. That needs to die...I mean, not that our DH's usually perform much better....

The shittiest Adam Dunn season ever level of DH is still better than watching pitchers bat!??

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16 minutes ago, SouthWallace said:

The shittiest Adam Dunn season ever level of DH is still better than watching pitchers bat!??

Not if Keuchel is anything like Mark Buehrle!!! Will never forget that HR he hit against Milwaukee

Edited by ScooterMcGee
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2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I think maybe he meant since interleague play started not including ancient history.

BUT it is worth noting that even while rebuilding and being bad we played them pretty tough while they were very good.

When you only play a rival 6 times, odds are the series will be 2-4 or 3-3. Separation in baseball occurs over time. Like if we played them 100 times in a year, they would have won 60 of them. 

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1 minute ago, SonofaRoache said:

When you only play a rival 6 times, odds are the series will be 2-4 or 3-3. Separation in baseball occurs over time. Like if we played them 100 times in a year, they would have won 60 of them. 

Stop making excuses for the Cubs ! They were good, we sucked but overall we came out ahead. I'll take the bragging rights despite the big IF you provided for that other team.

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11 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Stop making excuses for the Cubs ! They were good, we sucked but overall we came out ahead. I'll take the bragging rights despite the big IF you provided for that other team.

Since 2015, when the Cubs became good, we are 10 and 14 against them. In 2005 when we were great and they sucked, we split with them 3-3. In 2000 when we were good and they weren't, we split 3-3 with them. 

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Injury bug turned into the injury gorilla for us. Robert up - Moncada down.

Hopefully we’re fully healthy for the last 2 weeks of the season, which seem to be key and position is to get some “playoff competition” practice in.

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3 minutes ago, fathom said:

So Keuchel has pitched well with McCann, McCann has killed LHP and Grandal has been bad vs LHP and struggled in his career off Lester?   It makes no sense, as Grandal should have been catching tomorrow and Sunday.

Yep. Bad manager with a pencil. 

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