2021 World Series Sox vs. Padres

[caulfield12]

 

I've been watching both these teams closely since 2016/17, and taken a bit of heat for it, lol.

Bludgeoning teams to death like a war machine, raining down homers at a torrid pace.

Happening with both franchises at almost exactly the same time, similar winning streaks (Padres have Grand Slams 5 consecutive games), WS are leading AL in homers by now or pretty darned close to it.

Padres have clear sailing to the Dodgers, almost no clear threat in-between with Cubs' weaknesses being exposed this week.

White Sox have FIVE or SIX teams that are arguably equal or perhaps even better....between them and the Yankees.   So clearly, for this year at least, the Padres have the far easier path forward.

 

Abreu >>> Hosmer

Mendick <<< Cronenworth

Anderson ???? Tatis, Jr. (will not touch this one with a ten foot pole, the two most dynamic players on both teams, although you could certainly argue Luis Robert, certainly the leaders)

Moncada === Machado (contract figuring in favors White Sox, obviously)

Pham <<< Eloy Jimenez (historically, Pham has been a HIGH fWAR player but struggling this year and hurt)

Grisham <<< Luis Robert (Grisham one of the biggest surprises in NL, traded for Luis Urias to Brewers, who's been injured and might never hit enough to hold an everyday position)

W.Myers >>> N. Mazara (this one isn't even a close contest this year, but Myers' huge numbers this year beg for a trade while he's going good to get out from under contract)

Hedges/Mejia <<< Grandal/Mazara (not even close, although Hedges is excellent defensively, hits like Karkovice or Mark Johnson though)

Profar/Naylor/Ty France === EE (underwhelming on all fronts, Naylor has been best hitter of the 3)

 

Padres have slight advantage in starting rotation, although Paddack has had a down year so far.   Similar numbers to Giolito.   Dinelson Lamet has been another shocker with his results and upper 90's stuff after 2-3 years on comeback trail from TJ.   Keuchel has been great for Sox, Team MVP arguably, but no way I would take him over Lamet long-term.

Richards vs. Sox #3, probably Cease.

Kyle Davies vs. Sox #4.

 

The main difference between the two teams is the White Sox have Kopech (who knows what they will get out of him at this point) and Dunning, along with Crochet/Kelley.

The Padres legitimately have a Harper's Ferry of pitching talent, in Mackenzie Gore, Patino, Baez, Morejon, Quantrill, Anderson Espinoza...

 

White Sox have the much better bullpen (Yates/Pomeranz out) even without Aaron Bummer.   Lose Colome next year, but have a plethora of guys with lots of "closer potentiality."

 

[claydude14]

I could see this happening in the next 5 years, (and Tatis or Machado crushing all our hopes and dreams in a Game 7 to rub salt in). This year I think might still be too early but both teams are setup nicely.

Edited August 23, 2020 by claydude14

[skooch]

[caulfield12]

Oh, by the way, according to Baseball America, teams in the Top #1-2-3 rank for overall farm system talent pool quality/depth had something like a 95-96% chance/probability of making the playoffs within 5 years of that original ranking...and, by the looks of everything as it stands today, both franchises will get there 3 years later, just like the Cubs and Astros arrived on the playoff scene at least one year earlier than predicted (SI had them facing off in the 2017 World Series in their cover story, remember?)

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2715921-ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems-post-2017-mlb-draft

White Sox, 96.8%, Padres at 93.4% (1/2 game ahead of SD in overall standings, both on season-long winning streaks, 7 and 5-6 respectively)

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2715921-ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems-post-2017-mlb-draft

Here the White Sox were 3rd after the 2017 draft, and we were #1 at various points in 2017/2018.   Would have to look back at BA, those were REALLY the most official ones that EVERYONE went with until the last 2-3 years, the Bible of Scouting.

 

Some interesting names, right?

 

1. 2B Yoan Moncada 

2. RHP Michael Kopech

3. OF Luis Robert

4. RHP Lucas Giolito

5. RHP Alec Hansen

6. RHP Reynaldo Lopez

7. C Zack Collins

8. RHP Carson Fulmer

9. 3B Jake Burger

10. RHP Zack Burdi

 

At that SAME point in time, the Padres were still #8 but soon to begin a rapid ascent (with a bullet) built around a huge influx of minor league pitching talent (L.Patino/Baez/Weathers, etc.) and a certain SS.

As of today, their three most dynamic prospects are inarguably Gore/Taylor Trammell (acquired via trade from CINCY) and superutility CJ Abrams (a little Chone Figgins to his game).   For the White Sox, you have Kopech (still a rookie, technically, 2+ years later), Andrew Vaughn, Nick Madrigal, Dane Dunning, Crochet/Kelley.

Name	Level	Tier
1. RHP Anderson Espinoza (100+ MPH fastball has fallen victim to a series of injuries)	A+	1
2. LHP MacKenzie Gore (perhaps top pitching prospect in baseball as of today)	DRAFT	1
3. 2B Luis Urias (flamed out, couldn't hit and fielding overrated, injured as well)	AA	1
4. RHP Cal Quantrill (5th starter/swingman)	A+	1
5. LHP Adrian Morejon (struggling to break into rotation, bullpen piece today)	A-	1
6. LHP Eric Lauer (traded for Grisham with Urias to MIL)	A+	2
7. SS Fernando Tatis Jr.	A	2
8. 1B Josh Naylor (improved hitter this year after shaky rookie campaign offensively/def.)	A+	2
9. RHP Jacob Nix (legal, off the field problems	A+	2
10. LHP Logan Allen (got lost in numbers shuffle)	A	2

Graduated: CF Manuel Margot, RF Hunter Renfroe

       

Farm System Overview

The San Diego Padres graduated a pair of top-tier prospects in Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe, but they still hold onto a spot inside the top 10 thanks in large part to drafting left-hander MacKenzie Gore at No. 3 overall.

The bulk of the team's prospect talent now resides in the lower levels of the minors as the Padres are clearly building toward the future. That could mean some significant shifting in this top 10 in the months to come, as that's just the nature of prospects who are climbing toward their respective ceilings at different rates.

On top of drafting Gore, the Padres also picked up arguably the top catcher in this year's class (Luis Campusano) and a high-ceiling high school outfielder (Mason House), both of whom could find their way onto this list in short order.

    

Prospect on the Rise: LHP Joey Lucchesi (BA-24, MLB.com-NR)

After going undrafted as a junior, Lucchesi was taken in the fourth round of last year's draft following a breakout season at Southeast Missouri that included a Division I-leading 149 strikeouts. He'll need to move quickly as a 24-year-old, but there's no reason to think he won't as he's gone 5-4 with a 2.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and an 89-to-18 K/BB over 71.2 innings for High-A Lake Elsinore.

 

Edited August 23, 2020 by caulfield12

[ron883]

Do you like Tatis Jr more than I dislike Abreu?

[GermanSoxFan]

Would caulfield pass the Turing Test?

[caulfield12]

 

I just wanted to see someone pull the trigger arguing on behalf of TA... 

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Do you like Tatis Jr more than I dislike Abreu?

1. Robert 

2. Tatis, Jr. 

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Do you like Tatis Jr more than I dislike Abreu?

1. Robert 

2. Tatis, Jr. 

[35thstreetswarm]

The coolest thing about both teams is that they both are full of players, and all of them have names.  I just love seeing, reading, and typing them!

[caulfield12]

51 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

The coolest thing about both teams is that they both are full of players, and all of them have names.  I just love seeing, reading, and typing them!

I would much rather read about Mazara and EE and Mendick vs. Madrigal everyday...or McCann vs. Grandal.

Compelling, almost spellbinding stuff.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

The coolest thing about both teams is that they both are full of players, and all of them have names.  I just love seeing, reading, and typing them!

Okay, let's pick a player on any team, and discuss/assess/analze/evaluate that player's pluses and minuses.

You go first.   Pick one player that's not on the White Sox, just to make it more challenging.

Edited August 23, 2020 by caulfield12

[SonofaRoache]

I'm tired of the Padres stealing our thunder. This was supposed to be our week damnit! 

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

I'm tired of the Padres stealing our thunder. This was supposed to be our week damnit! 

Five grand slams in a row will do that, pretty darned incredible feet, I think all by different players...Cronenworth has been a beast, almost out of nowhere.

You'd think taking out the Cubs/Lester/Hendricks two games in a row at "historic" Wrigley would register, but it hasn't quite broken through the muddle.

 

That said, there's no way the Padres and White Sox both aren't on the periphery of the Top Ten in MLB rankings across various websites, 8-12, one would guess.

High water mark since the early summer of 2016.   

I supposed part of it's going to be "devil's advocates" arguing too much of our record is built on the backs of beating the Royals and Tigers into the ground.

That we haven't consistently beat the Twins or Indians (last year an exception) for most of this half decade.   Brewers, the split decision.

 

Right now, we're looking at 34-35 and 25-26 losses.   13-19 would still likely land us in the post-season...largely dependent on what the Blue Jays do fighting the Sox for spots 7/8.

Of course, we could overtake the Twins/Indians and make it less stressful.

[SonofaRoache]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Five grand slams in a row will do that, pretty darned incredible feet, I think all by different players...Cronenworth has been a beast, almost out of nowhere.

You'd think taking out the Cubs/Lester/Hendricks two games in a row at "historic" Wrigley would register, but it hasn't quite broken through the muddle.

 

That said, there's no way the Padres and White Sox both aren't on the periphery of the Top Ten in MLB rankings across various websites, 8-12, one would guess.

High water mark since the early summer of 2016.   

I supposed part of it's going to be "devil's advocates" arguing too much of our record is built on the backs of beating the Royals and Tigers into the ground.

That we haven't consistently beat the Twins or Indians (last year an exception) for most of this half decade.   Brewers, the split decision.

 

Right now, we're looking at 34-35 and 25-26 losses.   13-19 would still likely land us in the post-season...largely dependent on what the Blue Jays do fighting the Sox for spots 7/8.

Of course, we could overtake the Twins/Indians and make it less stressful.

I think we can catch Minnesota. I also think Cleveland probably wins the division with that pitching. Minnesota has a ton of injuries. We have a solid record against the winning teams but you are right, we need to win more. I wouldn't mind investigating a trade for Bauer either. He'd be a month rental but we could try and show him our vision for the future and his role in a large market being an ace. With Bauer, Gio, and DK, this team could get to the ALCS this season. 

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

I think we can catch Minnesota. I also think Cleveland probably wins the division with that pitching. Minnesota has a ton of injuries. We have a solid record against the winning teams but you are right, we need to win more. I wouldn't mind investigating a trade for Bauer either. He'd be a month rental but we could try and show him our vision for the future and his role in a large market being an ace. With Bauer, Gio, and DK, this team could get to the ALCS this season. 

Depends entirely on the financial resources/situation of the Indians, right?  They're nearing the end of their window, and need to make decisions on what to do with guys like Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Clevinger (especially NOW), Carrasco, etc.   Pretty ballsy to put Bieber on the market and completely rebuild, but they've done that at least 3 times (complete teardowns) since the late 90's juggernauts at Jacobs Field, when they were selling out season after season.

The question this always comes back to is do you dare trade Vaughn (and now Kopech as a real wild card even though 20-35 prospect ranking) for that short-term payoff?

Of course, with Abreu/Jimenez/Grandal all locked onto the roster for at least 2 years or longer, that makes finding playing time for Vaughn a bit of a challenge, right?   That said, everyone keeps arguing he's a generational hitter and that he will just mash as soon as he comes up.

We don't really know what the leaders in the clubhouse, as well as Hahn/Cooper/Renteria think about Bauer.   It would be quite intriguing....for sure.

I keep coming back to Stroman, and somehow being able to get him from the Mets without parting with one of those two kids because their financial pressures are so intense.

If not Stroman, there's Wacha/Porcello, for example.  I just don't think you make a "go for it/go for broke" move JUST YET.   We're riding another high again, but this team has plenty of warts that are going to be exposed by the best AL teams ahead of us in the rankings, as well as the starting pitching of the Reds.

[Chicago White Sox]

14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Depends entirely on the financial resources/situation of the Indians, right?  They're nearing the end of their window, and need to make decisions on what to do with guys like Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Clevinger (especially NOW), Carrasco, etc.   Pretty ballsy to put Bieber on the market and completely rebuild, but they've done that at least 3 times (complete teardowns) since the late 90's juggernauts at Jacobs Field, when they were selling out season after season.

The question this always comes back to is do you dare trade Vaughn (and now Kopech as a real wild card even though 20-35 prospect ranking) for that short-term payoff?

Of course, with Abreu/Jimenez/Grandal all locked onto the roster for at least 2 years or longer, that makes finding playing time for Vaughn a bit of a challenge, right?   That said, everyone keeps arguing he's a generational hitter and that he will just mash as soon as he comes up.

We don't really know what the leaders in the clubhouse, as well as Hahn/Cooper/Renteria think about Bauer.   It would be quite intriguing....for sure.

I keep coming back to Stroman, and somehow being able to get him from the Mets without parting with one of those two kids because their financial pressures are so intense.

If not Stroman, there's Wacha/Porcello, for example.  I just don't think you make a "go for it/go for broke" move JUST YET.   We're riding another high again, but this team has plenty of warts that are going to be exposed by the best AL teams ahead of us in the rankings, as well as the starting pitching of the Reds.

There will be zero issues finding Vaughn playing time because Eloy is our LF for the next two seasons minimum.

[southsider2k5]

Welcome to FriarTalk

[caulfield12]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2020-power-rankings-after-week-4

The rest of the field of 30:
6) Cubs (17-10, 4 last week)
7) Indians (17-11, 7)
? Braves (16-12, 6)
9) White Sox (17-12, 16)
10) Padres (18-12, 10)
11) Astros (15-13, 12)
12) Blue Jays (13-13, 23)
13) Reds (11-15, 14)
14) Cardinals (9-8, 13)
15) Marlins (11-11, 18)

Edited August 24, 2020 by caulfield12

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

21 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

I think we can catch Minnesota. I also think Cleveland probably wins the division with that pitching. Minnesota has a ton of injuries. We have a solid record against the winning teams but you are right, we need to win more. I wouldn't mind investigating a trade for Bauer either. He'd be a month rental but we could try and show him our vision for the future and his role in a large market being an ace. With Bauer, Gio, and DK, this team could get to the ALCS this season. 

Cleveland has the worst offense in baseball. I'd be surprised if they won the division.

[southsider2k5]

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Cleveland has the worst offense in baseball. I'd be surprised if they won the division.

Clevelands ownership has started shutting the door on this team longer term, with the trades they have made so far.  It is great for the Sox, but awful for the team.  It won't be very long before they are in full rebuild mode.  If they fall out this year, they could be a surprise seller this winter.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

On 8/22/2020 at 11:47 PM, caulfield12 said:

 

I've been watching both these teams closely since 2016/17, and taken a bit of heat for it, lol.

Bludgeoning teams to death like a war machine, raining down homers at a torrid pace.

Happening with both franchises at almost exactly the same time, similar winning streaks (Padres have Grand Slams 5 consecutive games), WS are leading AL in homers by now or pretty darned close to it.

Padres have clear sailing to the Dodgers, almost no clear threat in-between with Cubs' weaknesses being exposed this week.

White Sox have FIVE or SIX teams that are arguably equal or perhaps even better....between them and the Yankees.   So clearly, for this year at least, the Padres have the far easier path forward.

 

Abreu >>> Hosmer

Mendick <<< Cronenworth

Anderson ???? Tatis, Jr. (will not touch this one with a ten foot pole, the two most dynamic players on both teams, although you could certainly argue Luis Robert, certainly the leaders)

Moncada === Machado (contract figuring in favors White Sox, obviously)

Pham <<< Eloy Jimenez (historically, Pham has been a HIGH fWAR player but struggling this year and hurt)

Grisham <<< Luis Robert (Grisham one of the biggest surprises in NL, traded for Luis Urias to Brewers, who's been injured and might never hit enough to hold an everyday position)

W.Myers >>> N. Mazara (this one isn't even a close contest this year, but Myers' huge numbers this year beg for a trade while he's going good to get out from under contract)

Hedges/Mejia <<< Grandal/Mazara (not even close, although Hedges is excellent defensively, hits like Karkovice or Mark Johnson though)

Profar/Naylor/Ty France === EE (underwhelming on all fronts, Naylor has been best hitter of the 3)

 

Padres have slight advantage in starting rotation, although Paddack has had a down year so far.   Similar numbers to Giolito.   Dinelson Lamet has been another shocker with his results and upper 90's stuff after 2-3 years on comeback trail from TJ.   Keuchel has been great for Sox, Team MVP arguably, but no way I would take him over Lamet long-term.

Richards vs. Sox #3, probably Cease.

Kyle Davies vs. Sox #4.

 

The main difference between the two teams is the White Sox have Kopech (who knows what they will get out of him at this point) and Dunning, along with Crochet/Kelley.

The Padres legitimately have a Harper's Ferry of pitching talent, in Mackenzie Gore, Patino, Baez, Morejon, Quantrill, Anderson Espinoza...

 

White Sox have the much better bullpen (Yates/Pomeranz out) even without Aaron Bummer.   Lose Colome next year, but have a plethora of guys with lots of "closer potentiality."

 

Tatis and Anderson are not =... Get out of here. Tatis >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Anderson

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Clevelands ownership has started shutting the door on this team longer term, with the trades they have made so far.  It is great for the Sox, but awful for the team.  It won't be very long before they are in full rebuild mode.  If they fall out this year, they could be a surprise seller this winter.

Which means Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Clevinger, Carrasco and maybe even Bieber.   Carlos Santana would be another.   (Have already moved on from guys like Brantley, Gomes and Kipnis, for example.)

That outfield has been a wasteland, although Franmil Reyes and Santana are at least providing offense now...essentially, similar to White Sox OF offense in the last 2-3 years.

Pointless to hold onto peak value Bieber in that scenario, right?   Might as well clear the decks/cupboards, etc.

 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Tatis and Anderson are not =... Get out of here. Tatis >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Anderson

I put ??? for others to comment, did not write equal/equivalent if you look again, carefully.

[Quin]

10 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Tatis and Anderson are not =... Get out of here. Tatis >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Anderson

Last year they had near equal fWAR (Tatis 3.6, Anderson 3.5)

Tim (1.2) is 3rd in fWAR this year despite an IL stint, Tatis (2.1). But considering small sample sizes and your propensity to overrate players, I think you should scale back get out of here with the excessive carrots.

Tatis is better than Anderson, but it's more like Tatis > Anderson. That's it.