2021 World Series Sox vs. Padres

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Quin said:

Last year they had near equal fWAR (Tatis 3.6, Anderson 3.5)

Tim (1.2) is 3rd in fWAR this year despite an IL stint, Tatis (2.1). But considering small sample sizes and your propensity to overrate players, I think you should scale back get out of here with the excessive carrots.

Tatis is better than Anderson, but it's more like Tatis > Anderson. That's it.

But we have a counting stat.

Tatis put up that number in less than 90 games last year, off the top of my head.  (Note, I just checked, 84.)

Double that 3.6, discount a little because that would be 168 (which is impossible)....you're at around 6.8-7.0ish as a full season number.

 

 

[Dominikk85]

Padres have a good core but I think the Dodgers are still better and they always have good young prospects too. They are not going away the next couple years.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

Padres have a good core but I think the Dodgers are still better and they always have good young prospects too. They are not going away the next couple years.

Kershaw severely declining.

Pitching injuries.  But do have May, Urias, Gonsolin, etc.   Jansen continues to be human/hittable.

Seager, Bellinger, Betts the best threesome in MLB, but Muncy/Turner/catcher/Pederson/Taylor underwhelming.

Kiki the best superutility guy out there on West Coast.

 

Verdugo and Maeda moves backfiring...loss of team identity?

[GermanSoxFan]

The Dodgers are 22-8 breh

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

The Dodgers are 22-8 breh

Yes, but which two young teams are likeliest for WS 2021...?
Blue Jays or Rays on AL side, with Wander Franco?

NL?  Braves I guess, instead of SDP.  So talented but vulnerable on young pitching front...excess of young position prospects (outfield/3rd base) but seemingly no willingness to spend into stratosphere.

Milwaukee Brewers, can we still call them young-ish outside Hiura/Arcia?

Edited August 24, 2020 by caulfield12

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Yes, but which two young teams are likeliest for WS 2021...?
Blue Jays or Rays on AL side, with Wander Franco?

NL?  Braves I guess, instead of SDP.  So talented but vulnerable on young pitching front...excess of young position prospects (outfield/3rd base) but seemingly no willingness to spend into stratosphere.

Milwaukee Brewers, can we still call them young-ish outside Hiura/Arcia?

Yes, someone who will not have even appeared in a game above A ball going into 2021 is going to lead the Rays to a World Series title.

What is old about the Dodgers? They have a top tier farm system with an elite MLB product.. No idea where you see them falling off. They literally have no where for Garvin Lux to play currently and you're calling them not deep ha

Edited August 24, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[beautox]

4 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yes, someone who will not have even appeared in a game above A ball going into 2021 is going to lead the Rays to a World Series title.

What is old about the Dodgers? They have a top tier farm system with an elite MLB product.. No idea where you see them falling off. They literally have no where for Garvin Lux to play currently and you're calling them not deep ha

Exactly their deep up the middle with 2B/SS Lux, C Keibert & OF Andy Pages. As well as a bunch of high end RHP in May, Gray & Gonsolin.

[caulfield12]

7 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yes, someone who will not have even appeared in a game above A ball going into 2021 is going to lead the Rays to a World Series title.

What is old about the Dodgers? They have a top tier farm system with an elite MLB product.. No idea where you see them falling off. They literally have no where for Garvin Lux to play currently and you're calling them not deep ha

Where DID I SAY NOT DEEP?

You seem to have a way of putting words in the mouths of others.

Are you saying the Dodgers are the definition of a young and up and coming team like the W.Sox and Padres and Blue Jays?

Because they've been in the freakin' playoffs every year since 2013.

Yeah, they don't even have a spot for Gonsolin and he's been lights out, May has the potential to be much better than Kopech and their core of Seager/Bellinger/Betts might be the best combination of 3 youngish players in the game.

All that said, they haven't broken through YET (you can argue about Astros/Red Sox cheating until you're blue in the face, unless they take those titles away and give them to LAD, like the early 2000's USC football teams...like they didn't even play or vacated titles.)

 

Lux will end up in the Kiki/CTaylor/Muncy role eventually...

Edited August 25, 2020 by caulfield12

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Kershaw severely declining.

Pitching injuries.  But do have May, Urias, Gonsolin, etc.   Jansen continues to be human/hittable.

Seager, Bellinger, Betts the best threesome in MLB, but Muncy/Turner/catcher/Pederson/Taylor underwhelming.

Kiki the best superutility guy out there on West Coast.

 

Verdugo and Maeda moves backfiring...loss of team identity?

This is necessarily true. He's actually having a very good 2020 season. His FB velocity is also back up and averaging 91.8 mph. To put that into perspective, last season he was around 90.3 mph. He's still a tough matchup and it certainly seems like he's re-inventing himself this year.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Kershaw severely declining.

Pitching injuries.  But do have May, Urias, Gonsolin, etc.   Jansen continues to be human/hittable.

Seager, Bellinger, Betts the best threesome in MLB, but Muncy/Turner/catcher/Pederson/Taylor underwhelming.

Kiki the best superutility guy out there on West Coast.

 

Verdugo and Maeda moves backfiring...loss of team identity?

So this was caufield calling the dodgers great apparently. 

Guy asked if trading Verdugo for betts was a bad move hahaha

Let's review. Caufield calls padres the best young team In nl and the future best team in the NL. Someone points out the dodgers. Caufield says they're "weak" in all these places. I point out the dodgrrs arent just old and great but young and great too. Caufield said he never said the dodgers weren't the ones to beat....

 

So moral of the story is caufield just wanted to bring the padres and tatis up again.

Edited August 25, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

11 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

Padres have a good core but I think the Dodgers are still better and they always have good young prospects too. They are not going away the next couple years.

 

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Kershaw severely declining.

Pitching injuries.  But do have May, Urias, Gonsolin, etc.   Jansen continues to be human/hittable.

Seager, Bellinger, Betts the best threesome in MLB, but Muncy/Turner/catcher/Pederson/Taylor underwhelming.

Kiki the best superutility guy out there on West Coast.

 

Verdugo and Maeda moves backfiring...loss of team identity?

Just in case caufield forgot he argued earlier today that the dodgers weren't as good going forward as the padres 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

So this was caufield calling the dodgers great apparently. 

Guy asked if trading Verdugo for betts was a bad move hahaha

Let's review. Caufield calls padres the best young team In nl and the future best team in the NL. Someone points out the dodgers. Caufield says they're "weak" in all these places. I point out the dodgrrs arent just old and great but young and great too. Caufield said he never said the dodgers weren't the ones to beat....

 

So moral of the story is caufield just wanted to bring the padres and tatis up again.

ONCE AGAIN, you're going to define the DODGERS AS THE YOUNG, UP AND COMING TEAM?

Yeah, sure, bro...whatever.

I said it COULD be the Braves, it's EITHER the Braves OR the Padres?

 

Anyone want to disagree?   Call the Brewers young because of Hiura and Arcia and a couple of others?    These are mostly VETERAN teams, the Brewers and the Dodgers, how someone, anyone could disagree with that assessment, not exactly sure.

In the AL, it's pretty clearly the White Sox and the Blue Jays arriving at roughly the same time/simultaneously with boatloads of young talent.

 

NEVER SAID.....WEREN'T (double negative much???)

Yes, the DODGERS are the ones to beat in 2020, but that doesn't mean they will be in 2021.  But it's kind of apples and oranges, like comparing the Cubs and White Sox, or the White Sox and the Yankees budget-wise.

"WEAK IN ALL THESE PLACES"...

1) Jansen is no longer a sure thing

2) Still have lots of youngsters like Urias and May unproven in post-season

3) Pederson's having a terrible season, and Bellinger is just coming around.  Seager just needs to stay healthy.  Muncy hasn't been nearly as dominant as 2018-19.   It's not like they are some freakin' juggernaut, but they're definitely the favorites every year and can spend 2X as pretty much any team in the NL other than the Cubs (and Giants when they're competitive.)

4) Eventually they might feel they should have given up less than Verdugo and the rest of that trade, but losing a non-power hitting outfielder and replacing him with one of the 3 best corner outfielders in the last 5-10 years of MLB isn't going to matter all that much in the overall scheme of things.

 

Edited August 25, 2020 by caulfield12

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

The dodgers are better than the padres now and they have MORE young talent than the padres. Hope that clarifies things. I can't wait until your next tatis thread.

[Quin]

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

4) Eventually they might feel they should have given up less than Verdugo and the rest of that trade, but losing a non-power hitting outfielder and replacing him with one of the 3 best corner outfielders in the last 5-10 years of MLB isn't going to matter all that much in the overall scheme of things.

No, I believe acquiring Mookie Betts is quite consequential.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

10 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Where DID I SAY NOT DEEP?

You seem to have a way of putting words in the mouths of others.

Are you saying the Dodgers are the definition of a young and up and coming team like the W.Sox and Padres and Blue Jays?

Because they've been in the freakin' playoffs every year since 2013.

Yeah, they don't even have a spot for Gonsolin and he's been lights out, May has the potential to be much better than Kopech and their core of Seager/Bellinger/Betts might be the best combination of 3 youngish players in the game.

All that said, they haven't broken through YET (you can argue about Astros/Red Sox cheating until you're blue in the face, unless they take those titles away and give them to LAD, like the early 2000's USC football teams...like they didn't even play or vacated titles.)

 

Lux will end up in the Kiki/CTaylor/Muncy role eventually...

Uh no, gavin lux will be a starter and he will play 2nd base everyday; he will not be a utility guy playing all over the field. He is also nothing like Max Muncy.

 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Uh no, gavin lux will be a starter and he will play 2nd base everyday; he will not be a utility guy playing all over the field. He is also nothing like Max Muncy.

 

The biggest question marks for Lux come on defense. He improved at shortstop in 2019, thanks to cleaning up his footwork. However, it can slip at times causing errant throws. The fact that he doesn’t possess a plus-arm at shortstop means he has to maximize every other aspect of playing the position to stick there long-term. He has no problem with range and hands a plenty good for the position. His long-term viability will come down to how well he slings the ball across the diamond. Luckily for him, he profiles as a plus-second baseman thanks to a shorter throw. All his other defensive skills translate to the pivot, while his bat will play at either spot. He’s a plus-runner with elite-level sprint speed. He may not be a major stolen base threat, but he’ll be an asset on the base paths because he’s a good and fast base runner.

The Utley comparison isn’t looking too bad at this point. I’m not saying Lux is bound for Cooperstown, but he has the potential to be the offensive force Utley was while...

http://dodgersdigest.com/2020/03/25/2020-dodgers-top-100-prospects-no-1-ss-2b-gavin-lux/
 

Moncy has been a lot better there than nearly anyone expected...

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

The biggest question marks for Lux come on defense. He improved at shortstop in 2019, thanks to cleaning up his footwork. However, it can slip at times causing errant throws. The fact that he doesn’t possess a plus-arm at shortstop means he has to maximize every other aspect of playing the position to stick there long-term. He has no problem with range and hands a plenty good for the position. His long-term viability will come down to how well he slings the ball across the diamond. Luckily for him, he profiles as a plus-second baseman thanks to a shorter throw. All his other defensive skills translate to the pivot, while his bat will play at either spot. He’s a plus-runner with elite-level sprint speed. He may not be a major stolen base threat, but he’ll be an asset on the base paths because he’s a good and fast base runner.

The Utley comparison isn’t looking too bad at this point. I’m not saying Lux is bound for Cooperstown, but he has the potential to be the offensive force Utley was while...

http://dodgersdigest.com/2020/03/25/2020-dodgers-top-100-prospects-no-1-ss-2b-gavin-lux/
 

Moncy has been a lot better there than nearly anyone expected...

 

So you linked an article that said he would play 2nd base, after I said he'd liked play 2nd base. 

He won't play short stop because this guy named Corey Seager plays there. Another geezer on the Dodgers you may have overlooked. 

And yes, Muncy is better than his prospect status was but I have no idea what that has to do with him and Lux; if anything, it makes them even more dissimilar as Lux is an elite prospect.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

So you linked an article that said he would play 2nd base, after I said he'd liked play 2nd base. 

He won't play short stop because this guy named Corey Seager plays there. Another geezer on the Dodgers you may have overlooked. 

And yes, Muncy is better than his prospect status was but I have no idea what that has to do with him and Lux; if anything, it makes them even more dissimilar as Lux is an elite prospect.

Lux will not be a STAR.   
 

Never said Seager was old....just that the Dodgers were a mature veteran team and at a different stage on the development  curve.

How or why that’s interesting to acknowledge or not, no idea.

“he will not be a utility guy playing all over the field. He is also nothing like Max Muncy.“   Playing 2B, 1B, SS....would make him more like those players I mentioned, not less.   I highly doubt he only plays second.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Lux will not be a STAR.   
 

Never said Seager was old....just that the Dodgers were a mature veteran team and at a different stage on the development  curve.

How or why that’s interesting to acknowledge or not, no idea.

“he will not be a utility guy playing all over the field. He is also nothing like Max Muncy.“   Playing 2B, 1B, SS....would make him more like those players I mentioned, not less.   I highly doubt he only plays second.

How do you know how good Gavin Lux is going to be? Who says something like that with certainty? He's the #2 prospect in baseball; it's no dumber than all those people saying Robert would suck and be a bust.

What leads you to believe that Gavin Lux is going to play 1st base? Last year, Lux didn't play a single play for the Dodgers anywhere but 2nd base.

You are somehow saying the Dodgers aren't the team to beat in the NL because they have been good before this year. It's pretty funny.

Edited August 25, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[gusguyman]

12 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

How do you know how good Gavin Lux is going to be? Who says something like that with certainty? He's the #2 prospect in baseball; it's no dumber than all those people saying Robert would suck and be a bust.

What leads you to believe that Gavin Lux is going to play 1st base? Last year, Lux didn't play a single play for the Dodgers anywhere but 2nd base.

You are somehow saying the Dodgers aren't the team to beat in the NL because they have been good before this year. It's pretty funny.

I think at some point in the thread Caulfield switched from talking about the teams most likely to make the WS next year to which young and up-and-coming/unproven teams (emphasis on the latter) could break out to make the WS next year. Its hard to tell though because Caulfield posts like he's taking shorthand notes of a meeting with himself.

Edited August 25, 2020 by gusguyman

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

I think at some point in the thread Caulfield switched from talking about the teams most likely to make the WS next year to which young and up-and-coming/unproven teams (emphasis on the latter) could break out to make the WS next year. Its hard to tell though because Caulfield posts like he's taking shorthand notes of a meeting with himself.

ahh, this seems possible but when someone brought up the dodgers to rebut his analysis on the Padres being the team to beat, Caufield didn't say "ahh you're right." He instead went on to call into question how good the dodgers actually are.

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

How do you know how good Gavin Lux is going to be? Who says something like that with certainty? He's the #2 prospect in baseball; it's no dumber than all those people saying Robert would suck and be a bust.

What leads you to believe that Gavin Lux is going to play 1st base? Last year, Lux didn't play a single play for the Dodgers anywhere but 2nd base.

You are somehow saying the Dodgers aren't the team to beat in the NL because they have been good before this year. It's pretty funny.

They are, in 2020.

I simply am arguing White Sox and Padres as the two young teams to break through next year, just like SI projected the Cubs/Astros 2017 World Series and were barely off by a year for both.

[caulfield12]

1. LAD 63

2. CWS 62

3. SDP 61

[SonofaRoache]

Puck

The

Fadres

[caulfield12]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mike-clevinger-padres-trade-deadline

Clevinger deal caps Padres' astounding haul

 

RHP Mike Clevinger, from Cleveland
OF Greg Allen, from Cleveland
C Austin Nola, from Seattle
RHP Austin Adams, from Seattle
RHP Dan Altavilla, from Seattle
DH Mitch Moreland, from Boston
RHP Trevor Rosenthal, from Kanas City
C Jason Castro, from Angels
Player to be named, from Cleveland

 

The biggest losses here are Trammell (acquired from Reds, but underachieving, he was supposed to replace Wil Myers) and Quantrill (basically similar to Dane Dunning).  Probably Andres Munoz #3, that guy can throw 99-102, touching 103.   France and Naylor are NICE bats to have, but nothing amazing or irreplaceable IMO.

Padres still hold onto CJ Abrams (who can play anywhere) as well as Top 5-6 pitching prospects (including Mackenzie Gore, best LHP prospect in the game and Anderson Espinoza, who was their #1 prospect as recently as 2017, throws 100+ but has had a slew of injuries/setbacks in his young career.   

 

OF becomes Pham in LF (they've gotten very little out of him THIS year so far, recently injured), Trent Grisham (trade with MIL for Urias/SS-2B) and  Wil Myers (Profar and Naylor mixed in there, as well as INF for Jurickson)

Machado, Tatis, Jr., Cronenworth and Hosmer (Moreland becomes DH/1B/PH, replacing France/Naylor spot)

Catcher is dramatically improved, with Nola/Castro/Mejia (will sit on him and let him slowly develop year by year, still has a ton of potential IMO, especially LH bat with pop.)

Future rotation of Clevinger/Paddack/Gore/Lamet and any number of 5th starters (tons of prospects along with Kyle Davies, who came over from MIL in offseason)

Greg Allen becomes their version of Adam Engel

Altavilla, Adams very nice (and needed) reinforcements for bullpen....with Yates out, Pagan/Rosenthal/Pomeranz/Stammen/Strahm really need to pick up the slack.  Lots of talent out there, plus all the spillovers from starters who can't make the rotation (Patino/Baez/Morejon/Weathers/Espinoza, etc.)

The biggest needs going into today were a veteran DH/1B bat (Moreland), shoring up the catching spot (Nola/Castro) and bullpen (numerous additions.)  They managed to do all three, as well as adding a capable defensive outfielder in Allen to back up in late innings and PR.   Now with Profar, Castro, Mejia, Moreland, etc., they've really got a much more experienced, veteran mix on the bench.

 

They're still ONE year off from closing on the Dodgers, but narrowing the gap...and quickly.   Especially if Machado's back to being a 1.000+ OPS hitter and carrying the team on his back, like recently.

 

 

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by caulfield12