Realistic trade candidates AKA The Lynnsanity Thread

[Baron]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

I think Dunning by himself shows more return over the next few years. The Sox do not need to be in the sacrifice the future to win now mode. They've spent 4 years on this rebuild. Don't get impatient now.

What's being impatient about trying to capitalize on the moment now? They have other guys waiting in the wings to pitch. We need someone in the middle of the rotation now. 

[Orlando]

Win now. This team hasn’t made the playoffs in a decade. Don’t give me “Cease and Dunning give us a chance to win multiple championships!” Before even making the playoffs once. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

15 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Talk of trading Madrigal/Kopech in any trade for Lynn is laughable.

Madrigal is our 2b, he's untouchable.

Kopech is untouchable unless your name is Jacob DeGrom.

 

If we are getting Lynn it's going to be for Stevier or lower level players. 

Some of you need a reality check .Madrigal isnt untouchable. Neither is Kopech his career and his life have major problems.

The Sox are in  a position to be contenders for years to come with or without Kopech or Madrigal.  Holy overvaluing prospects Batman !

The goal is to win The freaking world series not win the prospect derby.

Sox have won 1 WS in 100 yrs. 1 more in the next 5 yrs would be nice. I'd like to start going for it this year .

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, Baron said:

What's being impatient about trying to capitalize on the moment now? They have other guys waiting in the wings to pitch. We need someone in the middle of the rotation now. 

Its about being smart.  Increasing low odds by a small amount, at the expense of when we really do have our best chances to win is how you close your window before it really opens. 

[iWiN4PreP]

5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Some of you need a reality check .Madrigal isnt untouchable. Neither is Kopech his career and his life have major problems.

The Sox are in  a position to be contenders for years to come with or without Kopech or Madrigal.  Holy overvaluing prospects Batman !

The goal is to win The freaking world series not win the prospect derby.

Sox have won 1 WS in 100 yrs. 1 more in the next 5 yrs would be nice. I'd like to start going for it this year .

Have no problem with the philosophy if it's for an actual quality get for longer than a half-year pandemic riddled season.

Lance Lynn is phenomenal right now. But he's old, a FA soon, and is not worth saying goodbye to any of our guys unless it's the lower levels. 

I think if a trade is made for Lynn, white sox or not, the return for him is going to be a lot less than what people expected. He won't net a lot given the situation.

 

Now... if you want to talk a player like DeGrom who can reshape our rotation for the next 3+ years, yeah -- then you trade kopech/etc. 

[MeanJoeCrede]

Realistically, could we trade our left over intl money from last year for someone like Dyson? He gives you speed and exceptional defense for late in games? ?

[Baron]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Its about being smart.  Increasing low odds by a small amount, at the expense of when we really do have our best chances to win is how you close your window before it really opens. 

Here's the thing. Maybe Rick Hahn doesn't believe the window hasn't opened yet. Maybe just maybe he see's the team excelling and is going to go after it because he knows the plethora of pitching prospects that we do have. Just a thought. I think he's probably entertaining trades of prospects you'd be screaming if we traded. 

[Flash]

2 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

 

Now... if you want to talk a player like DeGrom who can reshape our rotation for the next 3+ years, yeah -- then you trade kopech/etc. 

Why is DeGrom being mentioned as a trade target? Why would the Mets move him? 

[BigHurt3515]

39 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Great who would you part with and for who ?

I think parting with anyone not named Madrigal, Vaughn, Dunning, and maybe Kopech I would be fine with. Especially for a guy like Lynn who really only has 1 full year left and this year is such a crapshoot I would hate to trade guys who will be making an impact on our team pretty much right away for the next 5+ years. If we are talking about a DeGrom or another big name starter with 2+ years on his contract it is a different story.

[iWiN4PreP]

Just now, Flash said:

Why is DeGrom being mentioned as a trade target? Why would the Mets move him? 

Hasn't been many rumors this year, but in the past there was rumors. 

Mets off to a bad start again, they might need to blow it up a bit

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Its about being smart.  Increasing low odds by a small amount, at the expense of when we really do have our best chances to win is how you close your window before it really opens. 

Low odds ? We are going to the playoffs . You cant  guarantee that for any other year but this year.

You're a betting man . The odds say the Sox have a 95+ % chance to be in the playoffs this year. Tell me what do you think the odds are for making the playoffs each yr for the next 5 years ?

Try to keep in mind that that Sox with Reinsdorf have never been in the playoffs in back to back years. Nothing is a given except the odds are incredibly high this year.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Low odds ? We are going to the playoffs . You cant  guarantee that for any other year but this year.

You're a betting man . The odds say the Sox have a 95+ % chance to be in the playoffs this year. Tell me what do you think the odds are for making the playoffs each yr for the next 5 years ?

Try to keep in mind that that Sox with Reinsdorf have never been in the playoffs in back to back years. Nothing is a given except the odds are incredibly high this year.

Even with that in mind, I think the odds of the White Sox being World Champs increase in 2021 and 2022 for sure.  I also think this year will serve as a test drive for exanded playoffs.  It might not be 16 teams, but it will be something which will increase the number of teams in.

[iWiN4PreP]

11 minutes ago, Flash said:

Why is DeGrom being mentioned as a trade target? Why would the Mets move him? 

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/mets-really-trade-jacob-degrom-113010526.html

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Even with that in mind, I think the odds of the White Sox being World Champs increase in 2021 and 2022 for sure.  I also think this year will serve as a test drive for exanded playoffs.  It might not be 16 teams, but it will be something which will increase the number of teams in.

FWIW I looked up what the computers say.

Fangraphs gives us 6% odds at winning the WS.  BRef puts it at 2%.  I am comfortable with those numbers in my head.  With those kind of odds, how much do you think a Lance Lynn improves them?  Even if it increases us say 50%, we go from 6 to 9%.  Is it worth giving up pieces that could help us in the years where our odds are higher, either on the field or in a different deal which helps us then, and not now?

[gusguyman]

21 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Low odds ? We are going to the playoffs . You cant  guarantee that for any other year but this year.

You're a betting man . The odds say the Sox have a 95+ % chance to be in the playoffs this year. Tell me what do you think the odds are for making the playoffs each yr for the next 5 years ?

Try to keep in mind that that Sox with Reinsdorf have never been in the playoffs in back to back years. Nothing is a given except the odds are incredibly high this year.

How can you possibly argue that the White Sox are both legit contenders this year and not going to be a perennial playoff team as we improve over the next few years lol.

I even agree with you that TOR arms are the key but that is why you keep Kopech, he is one of the few we have that still has a chance to hit that level. We have probably a 2-5% chance of a ring this year. Adding Lynn makes that maybe 5-8%? That is not enough to sacrifice Kopech or Madrigal (though I am someone who thinks Dunning + Stiever might be worth it)

EDIT: SS2k beat me to it but with actual numbers lol. 538 also has us at 2% for those who like ELO

Edited August 28, 2020 by gusguyman

[maloney.adam]

How would you guys feel if the Sox traded for Dylan Bundy? I know that Lynn is the name that has been linked to the Sox but Bundy wouldn’t be too bad either. He’s also having a decent year with the Angels. 

[hi8is]

2 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

How would you guys feel if the Sox traded for Dylan Bundy? I know that Lynn is the name that has been linked to the Sox but Bundy wouldn’t be too bad either. He’s also having a decent year with the Angels. 

Really think both Bundy and Lynn are going to be in high demand requiring substantial assets. Again... you’ve got like 10 other teams who would be likely bidders.

I’m not expecting it for us. We really need to get a huge TOR controlled arm for a Sale / Eaton like give or we need to just ride it with perhaps a lower rotation bandaid.

[TomPickle]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

FWIW I looked up what the computers say.

Fangraphs gives us 6% odds at winning the WS.  BRef puts it at 2%.  I am comfortable with those numbers in my head.  With those kind of odds, how much do you think a Lance Lynn improves them?  Even if it increases us say 50%, we go from 6 to 9%.  Is it worth giving up pieces that could help us in the years where our odds are higher, either on the field or in a different deal which helps us then, and not now?

If the White Sox went from 6% to 9% they would have the second best odds in all of baseball to win the World Series. In that instance I absolutely would make that move. Lynn-Giolito-Keuchel gives you a legitimate shot at beating any team in a three game series. If the White Sox acquired Lynn and didn't have to give up anyone on the current MLB roster there is a chance the White Sox could end up with the best record in the AL.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

I am saying this year, I think our odds are probably less than 10% of winning, and those odds increase as we get to 21, and then peak in those next few years.  With those odds, I am not willing to push all in for a slightly larger chance at winning, when we could use those assets down the line when we will have a much higher chance.

Sorry again I am confused . Why only 10% this year. Wouldn't just Lynn give us 3 Cy Young candidates this year ?

What else need help? NOT the offense . The defense was already 1st in DRS and now has Dyson to help late inning defense and running. Bullpen is young and losing Bummer hurt but they are performing well and maybe Bummer can return for the playoffs. So late inning LH relief is a concern.

We are a pretty good team now. Lynn puts us among the elite teams increasing our odds to 50/50 which is pretty much what you want considering the vagaries of playoffs.

Using the term "all in" is not what is happening  here. It's not taking a fleeting shot at one year of glory at the expense of the future.

Every year the window is open ths Sox are going to face these tough decisions.

 

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Sorry again I am confused . Why only 10% this year. Wouldn't just Lynn give us 3 Cy Young candidates this year ?

What else need help? NOT the offense . The defense was already 1st in DRS and now has Dyson to help late inning defense and running. Bullpen is young and losing Bummer hurt but they are performing well and maybe Bummer can return for the playoffs. So late inning LH relief is a concern.

We are a pretty good team now. Lynn puts us among the elite teams increasing our odds to 50/50 which is pretty much what you want considering the vagaries of playoffs.

Using the term "all in" is not what is happening  here. It's not taking a fleeting shot at one year of glory at the expense of the future.

Every year the window is open ths Sox are going to face these tough decisions.

 

There are 15 other teams in this.  Even if we called it equal odds for everyone, that is about 6% each.  I think we are above some of the teams in this, and below others, so I can accept 6% as a a solid number.

[hi8is]

Alright @CaliSoxFanViaSWside - you advocation has got me on the Lynn train.

Just don’t want to see us including Dunning for him.

[Chisoxfn]

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Too bad Covid is around and the Tatis deal happened. Both are making Sox fans cling to prospects like newborns toa tete. If just Kopech gets you Lynn you do it.

You wait and wait for the rebuild to be finshed  to get it the playoffs to have team that can reach and win the World Series. What is Kopech going to contribute to the Sox this year and next ? Nothing . Innings limit next year. Two years of rust to shake off. Arm surgery. Trouble in his marriage. Opted out. Get the picture ? Things are unraveling for him. Yea he can still be good but when ?

I thought once the window opened and we were one piece away and one cheap piece like Lynn  you take your shot. HE'S not James Shields.

These are the same tough decisions the Cubs and Astros had to make. Both teams lost quality prospects in trades but won a World Series. There's almost no way to avoid that.

We are one good starter short . You all tell me how were going to get one who is a 1 or 2 right now . If you prefer to wait for  Cease, Lopez, Dunning we give up a shot at a ring this year and maybe next year too. Rebuild is over and as long there is baseball being played I'd like to think there will be a world series played.

Sucks to have our window open now but its wide open waiting to see if we have the guts to do what every team does that truly wants to be World Champs.

I don't trade Kopech for Lynn.  Not for a one month and a one year deal. No way no how. Kopech has high risk, but his upside is still so much greater (cost controlled front line starter - that is literally the difference between a regular player contender and a world series contender).  Especially for a team like the Sox that can't just go out and buy that ace.  The exception would be DeGrom.  

And I like Lynn - I'm just not trading any of our elite level prospects for him.  And I'm generally someone who is open to trading prospects.  

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, gusguyman said:

How can you possibly argue that the White Sox are both legit contenders this year and not going to be a perennial playoff team as we improve over the next few years lol.

I even agree with you that TOR arms are the key but that is why you keep Kopech, he is one of the few we have that still has a chance to hit that level. We have probably a 2-5% chance of a ring this year. Adding Lynn makes that maybe 5-8%? That is not enough to sacrifice Kopech or Madrigal (though I am someone who thinks Dunning + Stiever might be worth it)

EDIT: SS2k beat me to it but with actual numbers lol. 538 also has us at 2% for those who like ELO

I can easily argue that because we are practically in the playoffs already. Are we already 1/2 way through any other season with odds of making the playoffs above 95% ? Nope . I take what's right in front of my nose. I dont assume we will have 95 % chance every year because I dont assume we will be better next year. That hasn't worked out very well.

 Saying our odds are 2-6 % in a vacuum is extremely misleading as Tom Pickle pointed out. What are every other teams odds ? Dodgers might be the only one above 10 % I would guess.

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I can easily argue that because we are practically in the playoffs already. Are we already 1/2 way through any other season with odds of making the playoffs above 95% ? Nope . I take what's right in front of my nose. I dont assume we will have 95 % chance every year because I dont assume we will be better next year. That hasn't worked out very well.

 Saying our odds are 2-6 % in a vacuum is extremely misleading as Tom Pickle pointed out. What are every other teams odds ? Dodgers might be the only one above 10 % I would guess.

FG has us 6th overall with our odds.

Bref has us 13th.

LAD sits atop both lists, up near 20% in each one.  The Yankees, Twins , A's and Astros rank above us in both methodologies.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I don't trade Kopech for Lynn.  Not for a one month and a one year deal. No way no how. Kopech has high risk, but his upside is still so much greater (cost controlled front line starter - that is literally the difference between a regular player contender and a world series contender).  Especially for a team like the Sox that can't just go out and buy that ace.  The exception would be DeGrom.  

And I like Lynn - I'm just not trading any of our elite level prospects for him.  And I'm generally someone who is open to trading prospects.  

I just think we are a lot better than people realize right now. Good offense, good defense . SP  just needs a boost and Lynn is someone Jerry just might pay for.