Realistic trade candidates AKA The Lynnsanity Thread

[Chicago White Sox]

I’m sticking with my Lance Lynn prediction, but in the event it’s not it will be some random guy that no one is talking about or will ever get excited about like Joe Musgrove.

[bmags]

7 hours ago, Orlando said:

After starting hot, the rumors have died. I’m hoping something breaks over night or tomorrow. Good night 

Feels like we are at the point where the sellers may as well wait for deadline

[Dick Allen]

I really think anyone wanting the Sox to trade Kopech is being really short sided. I get some may be pissed he opted out, but with the surgery, his marriage in shambles, his estranged wife pregnant, and his admitted mental health issues, it seems like the right call for him. He was throwing 100 this spring. He is a bit different, but he works his ass off. If you loved him before he opted out, you should still love him.

[michelangelosmonkey]

So if I give you this list of White Sox pitching prospects

And I tell you...choose one...and over the rest of the 2020 season and the 2021 season they will come up and give you 3 WAR for 2020 and 6 WAR for 2021 but then blow out their arm and never pitch for us again.  Would you take that?  Giving you a real shot for post season glory in the early window period.  That's basically trading for Lance Lynn.  Or would you say "nope keep building up their arm until 2022 so we have a good shot at a five years window starting in 2022".  I might agree with you that you take the longer period of potential greatness with Kopech and probably Crochet and Kelly (that is, not trading them for Lynn) but the rest?  Why is Dunning untouchable?  Isn't it possible that Stiever or Pilkington or Dahlquist are just as good?   Isn't it better to have one Lance Lynn today for a year and a half than six really quality 4th starters in two years?  Lynn really moves our legitimate contention window up at least a year.  I'm ready.      

[SCCWS]

48 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I really think anyone wanting the Sox to trade Kopech is being really short sided. I get some may be pissed he opted out, but with the surgery, his marriage in shambles, his estranged wife pregnant, and his admitted mental health issues, it seems like the right call for him. He was throwing 100 this spring. He is a bit different, but he works his ass off. If you loved him before he opted out, you should still love him.

I would add that Kopech has some issues/questions surrounding him which may deflate his value. Not sure the Sox want to trade "slightly damaged goods" as opposed to waiting a year and see what Kopech we have next spring. 

[Sarava]

31 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

So if I give you this list of White Sox pitching prospects

And I tell you...choose one...and over the rest of the 2020 season and the 2021 season they will come up and give you 3 WAR for 2020 and 6 WAR for 2021 but then blow out their arm and never pitch for us again.  Would you take that?  Giving you a real shot for post season glory in the early window period.  That's basically trading for Lance Lynn.  Or would you say "nope keep building up their arm until 2022 so we have a good shot at a five years window starting in 2022".  I might agree with you that you take the longer period of potential greatness with Kopech and probably Crochet and Kelly (that is, not trading them for Lynn) but the rest?  Why is Dunning untouchable?  Isn't it possible that Stiever or Pilkington or Dahlquist are just as good?   Isn't it better to have one Lance Lynn today for a year and a half than six really quality 4th starters in two years?  Lynn really moves our legitimate contention window up at least a year.  I'm ready.      

Dane Dunning might be the most likely to have a successful career from the list you posted. Kopech's celing is miles higher, but there's side issues with him including the amount of contractual control left.

But back to Dane - the guy has been nothing but good since the Sox acquired him. He was rolling through the minors until his TJ surgery came up. His poise blew me away from his first start. I want to see more.

I would absolutely move Kelly or Crochet before Dunning, though those 2 are untradable until after the World Series. I would also move our two 2 pitching prospects from the 2019 draft in Thompson (not on your list) and Dalquist, before Dunning.

And here's where I disagree with the window from 2022 onward. The Sox could win the World Series this year, even without trading for Lance Lynn. Is it likely....probably not. It's probably not likely even with him. But it can happen. The window has opened. But I absolutely do not support slamming the door shut early on the rebuild window just to slightly improve our chances the first year or two.

This is just fans being impatient and nothing more.

[HakunaMachado]

I feel like LL deal is going to happen for us today. No info, just gut reaction! Hahn and JD are friends and I think there is a match in the players we’ve thrown about!

[Sarava]

If you can nab Lynn for Stiever, Adolfo and Thompson, I would do that deal. That is the Sox 7, 9 & 10 prospects. I'm guessing the Rangers would find a better offer though.

[CyAcosta41]

44 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

So if I give you this list of White Sox pitching prospects

And I tell you...choose one...

Isn't it better to have one Lance Lynn today for a year and a half than six really quality 4th starters in two years?  Lynn really moves our legitimate contention window up at least a year.  I'm ready.      

It’s the age old question about going for it now by using prospect currency to maximize the now at the expense of some quantum of quantity or quality later. 

Never an easy call because the supposedly good bet for the now isn’t always that, plus the prospect(s) who can make it all work need to be deemed expendable by the team going for it and more attractive to the team ditching the vet than they’d get from other teams also going for it now. 

Thing is, pretty much every team will at some point “go for it” because winning the World Series is the point. Of course, you also can’t be stupid about — no two vets are the same and likelihood of having a real shot can always be argued (hello James Shields). 

Great discussion topic. And as somebody else pointed out, our pitching prospect war chest Is even greater because you omitted Matthew Thompson (#9). 

[michelangelosmonkey]

3 minutes ago, Sarava said:

Dane Dunning might be the most likely to have a successful career from the list you posted. Kopech's celing is miles higher, but there's side issues with him including the amount of contractual control left.

But back to Dane - the guy has been nothing but good since the Sox acquired him. He was rolling through the minors until his TJ surgery came up. His poise blew me away from his first start. I want to see more.

I would absolutely move Kelly or Crochet before Dunning, though those 2 are untradable until after the World Series. I would also move our two 2 pitching prospects from the 2019 draft in Thompson (not on your list) and Dalquist, before Dunning.

And here's where I disagree with the window from 2022 onward. The Sox could win the World Series this year, even without trading for Lance Lynn. Is it likely....probably not. It's probably not likely even with him. But it can happen. The window has opened. But I absolutely do not support slamming the door shut early on the rebuild window just to slightly improve our chances the first year or two.

This is just fans being impatient and nothing more.

I was super patient but at some point the rebuild goes to the second stage...where you trade future assets for present assets.  You suggest we could still win WS in 2020 with a playoff rotation of...Gio, Dallas and...Cease?  Dunning?  Lopez?  Rodon?   Do you trust anyone but the top two against the Twins or Dodgers?    Lynn has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last season and a half.  Going into the playoffs with three very good pitchers, a great offense and a very good defense makes you a legit contender.   The idea that somehow you are "slamming the door shut" on the rebuild because you trade one of 8 young pitchers...and the oldest one coming off of major arm trouble...for a TOR pitcher seems a bit hyperbolic.   Lynn buys you a year and a half for Cease, Kopech, Lopez and 6 other pitchers to gain consistence and confidence to be big league pitchers.   

[Sarava]

1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I was super patient but at some point the rebuild goes to the second stage...where you trade future assets for present assets.  You suggest we could still win WS in 2020 with a playoff rotation of...Gio, Dallas and...Cease?  Dunning?  Lopez?  Rodon?   Do you trust anyone but the top two against the Twins or Dodgers?    Lynn has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last season and a half.  Going into the playoffs with three very good pitchers, a great offense and a very good defense makes you a legit contender.   The idea that somehow you are "slamming the door shut" on the rebuild because you trade one of 8 young pitchers...and the oldest one coming off of major arm trouble...for a TOR pitcher seems a bit hyperbolic.   Lynn buys you a year and a half for Cease, Kopech, Lopez and 6 other pitchers to gain consistence and confidence to be big league pitchers.   

Then go and get Lynn. But find a way of doing it without trading away Dunning.

[Chicago White Sox]

22 minutes ago, HakunaMachado said:

I feel like LL deal is going to happen for us today. No info, just gut reaction! Hahn and JD are friends and I think there is a match in the players we’ve thrown about!

Yup, Hahn & Daniels are BFFs and Jon definitely owes us for those ridiculous Welington Castillo & Nate Jones trades!

[michelangelosmonkey]

4 minutes ago, CyAcosta41 said:

It’s the age old question about going for it now by using prospect currency to maximize the now at the expense of some quantum of quantity or quality later. 

Never an easy call because the supposedly good bet for the now isn’t always that, plus the prospect(s) who can make it all work need to be deemed expendable by the team going for it and more attractive to the team ditching the vet than they’d get from other teams also going for it now. 

Thing is, pretty much every team will at some point “go for it” because winning the World Series is the point. Of course, you also can’t be stupid about — no two vets are the same and likelihood of having a real shot can always be argued (hello James Shields). 

Great discussion topic. And as somebody else pointed out, our pitching prospect war chest Is even greater because you omitted Matthew Thompson (#9). 

Yes and I forgot Bernardo Flores...plus the pitchers we draft in 2021...and international signings...and guys that emerge from nowhere.  My point is that it's not Dunning or bust.  I think we have a lot of guys at the Dunning level.  I'd be upset if we traded Kopech because I think he has special stuff.   But the idea we can get someone of Lynn's quality for nothing?   I think Dunning, Collins, Lopez and Elijiah Tatis would be a great package for Lynn.  Rangers get two young pitchers with great stuff and upside, Collins a catcher with huge offensive upside and Tatis who in two years will likely be the best player in baseball.  What do we really lose?  Dunning =Stiever=Pinklington=etc.  4th starters in 2022.  We can't use a ten man rotation in two years.   

[Sarava]

1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Yes and I forgot Bernardo Flores...plus the pitchers we draft in 2021...and international signings...and guys that emerge from nowhere.  My point is that it's not Dunning or bust.  I think we have a lot of guys at the Dunning level.  I'd be upset if we traded Kopech because I think he has special stuff.   But the idea we can get someone of Lynn's quality for nothing?   I think Dunning, Collins, Lopez and Elijiah Tatis would be a great package for Lynn.  Rangers get two young pitchers with great stuff and upside, Collins a catcher with huge offensive upside and Tatis who in two years will likely be the best player in baseball.  What do we really lose?  Dunning =Stiever=Pinklington=etc.  4th starters in 2022.  We can't use a ten man rotation in two years.   

I think Dunning is the only one of the 4 you listed that have much of any value. And now I see why you want to move him so bad. You see a 4th starter in him.

Personally I'm hoping Dane pitches well today and he can take Lopez's spot in the rotation. Let's see what Reynaldo can do in the pen.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

29 minutes ago, HakunaMachado said:

I feel like LL deal is going to happen for us today. No info, just gut reaction! Hahn and JD are friends and I think there is a match in the players we’ve thrown about!

If being friends mattered at all Jon Daniels and AJ Preller were roommates and fraternity brothers in college.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

So if I give you this list of White Sox pitching prospects

And I tell you...choose one...and over the rest of the 2020 season and the 2021 season they will come up and give you 3 WAR for 2020 and 6 WAR for 2021 but then blow out their arm and never pitch for us again.  Would you take that?  Giving you a real shot for post season glory in the early window period.  That's basically trading for Lance Lynn.  Or would you say "nope keep building up their arm until 2022 so we have a good shot at a five years window starting in 2022".  I might agree with you that you take the longer period of potential greatness with Kopech and probably Crochet and Kelly (that is, not trading them for Lynn) but the rest?  Why is Dunning untouchable?  Isn't it possible that Stiever or Pilkington or Dahlquist are just as good?   Isn't it better to have one Lance Lynn today for a year and a half than six really quality 4th starters in two years?  Lynn really moves our legitimate contention window up at least a year.  I'm ready.      

Love your posts.

My other thing is this: at this point we have the “control” we need. Most of our impact guys are controlled, a big enough core to mix and match around them. Don’t overrate control on the next addition, maximize impact. I’d much rather trade “18 years of control” the phrase people are using for 1.5 excellent years than four 2.5-3 win years. Are 3 win players hard to find? Sure, but the thing that will push us each year a little bit harder will be turning an average or below position like one of our SP or RF spots and turning it into an all star or better.

[michelangelosmonkey]

3 minutes ago, Sarava said:

Then go and get Lynn. But find a way of doing it without trading away Dunning.

I really think you can.  Stiever is younger and actually higher rated than Dunning....seems like the Rangers baseball people would like that even if Dunning is a bit sexier.  So go Stiever-Collins-Lopez and Tatis.  My only reason for including Dunning is I think he is easier to sell to the Rangers fan base because of his recent Dunning-Mize pitch off.  I actually kind of love a Gio-Dallas-Lynn-Cease-Dunning rotation for the next year and a half.  Hold on I'll go call the Rangers GM.  

[Sarava]

1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I really think you can.  Stiever is younger and actually higher rated than Dunning....seems like the Rangers baseball people would like that even if Dunning is a bit sexier.  So go Stiever-Collins-Lopez and Tatis.  My only reason for including Dunning is I think he is easier to sell to the Rangers fan base because of his recent Dunning-Mize pitch off.  I actually kind of love a Gio-Dallas-Lynn-Cease-Dunning rotation for the next year and a half.  Hold on I'll go call the Rangers GM.  

There, now we agree! Even Thompson could be thrown in. We drafted him out of a Texas high school last year, so that likely would draw some interest from them as a depth piece in a deal.

[bmags]

Kinda funny that all of the marginal SP FAs from last Jan/Feb (gausman, Milone, rosenthal) all performed decently and are the main trade acquisitions thus far.

[michelangelosmonkey]

6 minutes ago, Sarava said:

I think Dunning is the only one of the 4 you listed that have much of any value. And now I see why you want to move him so bad. You see a 4th starter in him.

Personally I'm hoping Dane pitches well today and he can take Lopez's spot in the rotation. Let's see what Reynaldo can do in the pen.

How is it possible that Collins has no value at all??   25 year old left handed hitting catcher with plus power and an elite batting eye??   Reynaldo Lopez has NO value?  In 2018 and 19 had 35 Quality starts, is only 26 and can throw 98.  I think you spend too much time on Soxtalk where everyone that is not an immediate all star is garbage (and any all-star that has had a bad week is garbage).  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

11 minutes ago, bmags said:

Kinda funny that all of the marginal SP FAs from last Jan/Feb (gausman, Milone, rosenthal) all performed decently and are the main trade acquisitions thus far.

Gausman was traded?

[daggins]

Milone gone. No indications the Sox were interested but its moot now.

[michelangelosmonkey]

13 minutes ago, bmags said:

Love your posts.

My other thing is this: at this point we have the “control” we need. Most of our impact guys are controlled, a big enough core to mix and match around them. Don’t overrate control on the next addition, maximize impact. I’d much rather trade “18 years of control” the phrase people are using for 1.5 excellent years than four 2.5-3 win years. Are 3 win players hard to find? Sure, but the thing that will push us each year a little bit harder will be turning an average or below position like one of our SP or RF spots and turning it into an all star or better.

I wonder if we are suffering from Quintana angst? Cubs in their window trade top hitting and pitching prospects for a few years of control of a hugely under rated..near great...MLB starting pitcher and then Quintana has not been good for them and Cease and Eloy look like huge building blocks for us.  Will Karma eat our souls?  

  

[Sarava]

2 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

How is it possible that Collins has no value at all??   25 year old left handed hitting catcher with plus power and an elite batting eye??   Reynaldo Lopez has NO value?  In 2018 and 19 had 35 Quality starts, is only 26 and can throw 98.  I think you spend too much time on Soxtalk where everyone that is not an immediate all star is garbage (and any all-star that has had a bad week is garbage).  

Someone posted a day or two ago that Keith Law said Reynaldo Lopez has little to no value. Personally I think he's losing his value in the rotation and it's time to try the bullpen.

Collins though...I don't know where he's a valuable fit for any team. The Sox thought so much of him as a catcher that they ran out and signed Grandal this past winter. Scouts have been saying for years he won't stick at catcher. I find it goofy that you think he has high value.

[CyAcosta41]

12 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Yes and I forgot Bernardo Flores...plus the pitchers we draft in 2021...and international signings...and guys that emerge from nowhere.  My point is that it's not Dunning or bust. 

My Thompson mention wasn’t meant as a “gotcha” — he’s Top Ten on the Prospect List you used, just turned 20, potentially of additional interest to Texas. Significantly greater currency value than Flores (with all due respect to the great Bernardo) and the next Stiever-type who might pop. 

I agree with you that it isn’t Dunning or bust. A Lynn trade, or one like it, must be explored in 2020 or 2021. If it’s me, Kopech and Dunning are not on the table in discussions (well, crazy offers can change anything) because why trade them when they’re both likely 2021 starters and you have so many others you can move? I’d be extra careful about moving either of our 2020 picks because that’s your next wave. Everyone else, adding any position player not named Vaughn? Available in the “right” deal — knowing full well that the right deal to our management team is not necessarily the right deal to some subgroup of fans. Fortunately fans don’t make the call or we’d have TA at catcher instead of two All-Stars.