Indians Playing WAY Over Their Heads!!

[Soxsi75]

This is where having only a 60 game season may appear to hurt the White Sox.  Because as of now, Cleveland is getting the kind of pitching which isn't simply outstanding, it's legendary. As in one of the best pitching staffs of all time. And so over the course of the long season, which baseball always has been, and needs to be, they would certainly come down to earth a bit. Now, do they have excellent pitching? I would certainly say yes. But is it THIS good? Not a chance. Here's why and what I found. 

Cleveland's team ERA right now is a ridiculous 2.75. I've researched every season since 1973, the year the Designated Hitter was put into place, and only two teams in the AL have had a season where their team ERA was under 3.00 and none since 1981!!! The two teams were the 1974 Oakland A's at 2.95 and the 1981 Yankees at 2.90. Now the A's in 74 were a team that that year was in the midst of winning their 3rd consecutive World Series. I don't think this Cleveland team has ANY right to have their pitching staff compared to that one, and it's still nearly a quarter of a run lower!!!

The other was the 1981 Yankees at 2.90. Which in other words was...........a strike shortened year. Shortened like this one. And still quite a bit higher than Cleveland's this year. 

I even took it a step further and researched all National Leagues seasons since 1973, which of course had never used the DH, and they've only had a handful of seasons with a team having an ERA below 3.00, even with the pitcher batting, and only only one since 1989!!!! The Cardinals of 2015 managed to have one as low as 2.94.  But again. Still almost a quarter of a run higher than what Cleveland's done so far. Also means that none of those outstanding pitching staff's the Braves had in the 90's accomplished this.

There were a handful of other one's in the NL from the 1980's, but that was more of a pitching era, and all of them were again in the 2.90's. Except one. The 1981 Astros. They were 2.66. But again, this was 1981. That shortened year. 

So the point of my large rant here is that if we were to play a full season, I think I've proven here that there would be NO WAY Cleveland could continue to get THIS kind of pitching. And when you also then consider the fact that their lineup doesn't even BEGIN to compare to ours, when their pitching would come back to earth, we would win more games than them. But.........it's just a 60 game season. 

 

[Dominikk85]

Their pitching isn't that good but their lineup also isn't that bad, Santana, lindor and mercado have clearly underperformed their projection.

Don't get me wrong, they don't have a great lineup and the bottom is very bad but usually their first 4-5 guys should have been ok.

[Soxsi75]

17 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Their pitching isn't that good but their lineup also isn't that bad, Santana, lindor and mercado have clearly underperformed their projection.

Don't get me wrong, they don't have a great lineup and the bottom is very bad but usually their first 4-5 guys should have been ok.

True. But even if their lineup performs like you mentioned, and I agree with, they're winning as much as they are because of the ridiculously insane pitching they are getting. So my thinking is that even when their lineup begins to perform like it should, they still won't be winning as much as they are when their pitching comes back down to earth.  And therefore, they'd win less games than us. Over the course of 162 games.  But in 60 games will that happen? 

[fathom]

Personally, their pitching would probably hold up better over 162 than the Sox.  

[Soxsi75]

17 minutes ago, fathom said:

Personally, their pitching would probably hold up better over 162 than the Sox.  

I'm not arguing that. But the gap in our lineup to theirs, is greater than the gap between their pitching is to ours. Therefore, I do believe we are more balanced and therefore would win more games over the course of 162 games. And I'm saying this because they are only one game ahead of us while getting unrealistically good pitching. Something that there isn't any reason to believe they would be able to continue to accomplish over 162 games. 

[he gone.]

All relative. Their pitching is doing great, bats not. Their bats will come up, pitching down, but you're going to be able to say that about all aspects of all teams. You can maybe say our power will regress or that our bullpen will. Simply put they have a really, really solid team and if they go out and make a trade for one more bat via a guy like McKenzie or Pleasac they could very well be the world series favorite in my own book. 

[Soxsi75]

41 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

All relative. Their pitching is doing great, bats not. Their bats will come up, pitching down, but you're going to be able to say that about all aspects of all teams. You can maybe say our power will regress or that our bullpen will. Simply put they have a really, really solid team and if they go out and make a trade for one more bat via a guy like McKenzie or Pleasac they could very well be the world series favorite in my own book. 

So then you think I am underrating Cleveland?

[GreenSox]

What about the .500 Tigers?  This division is about to be a bear.

[he gone.]

14 hours ago, Soxsi75 said:

So then you think I am underrating Cleveland?

Depends on what angle you're taking - last year I took the Nationals +2500 into the playoffs to win the WS because of their pitching staff. I think the Indians (currently with Clev) are that type of team. If you're an opposing team, I think outside maybe a HEALTHY yankees team, I don't want to face the indians. 

 

Assuming Mercado can be anything close to what he has been in the minors and during his cup of coffee last year? Then really all they need is a LF/Bat. Jose Ramirez, Lindor, Santana, Franmil are all solid bats. Cesar Hernandez, Naquin are solid enough to be bottom of order guys. I really think they are one bat away from being a top 5 team. If i were them I'd be trading someone like a pleasac for that LF, but they're cheap and likely will trade Clev. But given my choice of who i think is the best team in the central I"m going Indians. 

[Soxsi75]

4 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

Depends on what angle you're taking - last year I took the Nationals +2500 into the playoffs to win the WS because of their pitching staff. I think the Indians (currently with Clev) are that type of team. If you're an opposing team, I think outside maybe a HEALTHY yankees team, I don't want to face the indians. 

 

Assuming Mercado can be anything close to what he has been in the minors and during his cup of coffee last year? Then really all they need is a LF/Bat. Jose Ramirez, Lindor, Santana, Franmil are all solid bats. Cesar Hernandez, Naquin are solid enough to be bottom of order guys. I really think they are one bat away from being a top 5 team. If i were them I'd be trading someone like a pleasac for that LF, but they're cheap and likely will trade Clev. But given my choice of who i think is the best team in the central I"m going Indians. 

Fair enough. Personally, I think you're overrating their lineup. Ramirez, Lindor, Santana and Reyes are the only guys who can hurt you. That's only 4 guys. There's isn't much different than Kansas City's which has Merrifield, Soler, McBroom and Dozier. And now they've traded Clevinger without any proven help to their lineup. They're HOPING Naylor is. 

[he gone.]

yah that return was awful. i don't like to judge trades right at the jump because i do think it takes time. everybody wanted to grade the sale trade right away, but it's all layered. Boston got a few good years out of him, then a lot of money, now an injury. We've got a mixed bag so far on our end - so it still needs even a few MORE years to grade that trade. in this case however? good lord they got NOTHING for clev. No impact bat or arm NOW or LATER. baffles me. I was assuming a clevinger trade would bring back a Dylan Carlson, Kirilloff, Riley Greene type of OF prospect back. Like if Carlson was traded to that team plus say Alex Reyes and a few others ... like i thought they'd get out of a Clev, then I think that team is super duper solid throughout. Based on what they got back though? yikes. 

 

 

[Soxsi75]

31 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

yah that return was awful. i don't like to judge trades right at the jump because i do think it takes time. everybody wanted to grade the sale trade right away, but it's all layered. Boston got a few good years out of him, then a lot of money, now an injury. We've got a mixed bag so far on our end - so it still needs even a few MORE years to grade that trade. in this case however? good lord they got NOTHING for clev. No impact bat or arm NOW or LATER. baffles me. I was assuming a clevinger trade would bring back a Dylan Carlson, Kirilloff, Riley Greene type of OF prospect back. Like if Carlson was traded to that team plus say Alex Reyes and a few others ... like i thought they'd get out of a Clev, then I think that team is super duper solid throughout. Based on what they got back though? yikes. 

 

 

Agreed.