2021 Offseason Prediction: Who We Lose and What Will Be Our Needs?

[SouthSideGeorgia]

Was looking for a post that summarizes who the Sox lose after this 2020 season and showcases what our needs will be in free agency and/or trades. There’s obviously some obstacles and unknowns, like Rule 5 draft, the 40-man roster and offseason decisions. But I figured I’d try to compile that and ask for feedback, corrections and opinion here. So after 2020, here’s who the Sox lose:

End of Contracts:

C James McCann

BP Alex Colome

BP Ross Detweiler

OF Jarrod Dyson

 

Club Option for 2021:

BP Steve Cishek ($6.75 million - not likely picked up)

DH Edwin Encarnacion ($12 million - not likely picked up)

SP Gio Gonzalez ($7 million - not likely picked up)

FLEX Leury Garcia ($3.5 million - guessing not likely)

Late Arbitration Year:

RF Nomar Mazara (last arbitration yr, not likely)

INF Yolmer Sanchez (last arbitration yr, not likely)

SP Carlos Rodon (last arbitration yr, not sure here)

So what we return for sure in 2021, and what are our needs are the following:

Catcher: Yasmani Grandal backed by Zack Collins. Maybe Yermin Mercedes as a third C/DH. Discussion from some Sox fans Are considering to resign McCann, but I find that unlikely. Sexy Zavala is fourth depth catcher in organization. Pending Actions: decide on backup catchers for 2021 and beyond.

First Base: Jose Abreu returns as starter. Probably much fewer opportunities for Grandal, since he will be more everyday catcher compared to 2020. Feeling like Andrew Vaughn will be the backup first basemen and alternate at DH also with Abreu. I’m thinking Edwin prohibits them development of Vaughn and only gets one year with Sox. Minor league is Gavin Sheets, who would be a likely trade commodity due to Abreu and Vaughn.

Designated Hitter: Sox may take the option on Edwin for another $12 million, but probably not after 2020. DH could be a rotated position between Vaughn, Abreu, Collins, and maybe Eloy (if Sox land a flexible starting RF that can play LF too). Yermin Mercedes is also third catcher and spots well to the DH position. 

Second base: Cheap position for the Sox and good talent there. No reason to change a thing from Madrigal and Mendick. Seems like Leury Garcia and Yolmer Sanchez may be too expensive an option since there may be cheaper options in the minors (although Yolmer may have a better chance due to 3b). 
 

Shortstop: Tim Anderson and a backup, possibly Mendick and maybe a Yolmer, but they may cut Sanchez for a cheaper option there. Anderson and Mendick may be enough. 
 

Third Base: Yoan Moncada and a backup, Mendick, and maybe another option like Sanchez, or another farm piece. 
 

Outfield: Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert and To Be Determined RF. Mazara has One more arbitration year, but it seems unlikely at this stage that they pursue that with his production. Will need a starting RF in offseason, preferably left handed bat, and at least average to plus defender and athleticism. Sox lose Dyson, but may keep Engle on for another backup season due to arbitration. Leury Garcia is an option, but Sox should pursue a starter here in the offseason, in my opinion. Micker Adolfo, Blake Rutherford,  and Luis Gonzalez are the farm OF to consider as depth. 
 

Starting Pitchers: Giolito, Keuchel, Cease and Dunning are for sure starters in 2021. Assuming we don’t take the option on a Gio Gonzalez. Rodon is in his last arbitration and he will cost over $5 million per year with no signs of staying healthy. It’s a toss up if the Sox keep him around (I’m thinking they release him). He could be considered for long relief bullpen, but there are probably cheaper, more dependable options there. Reynaldo Lopez is in arbitration 1, and will be on roster. He could compete for that #5 starter next year, but he’s at the end of his leash. Especially, with Kopech possibly getting the promotion to starter sometime next season. Depth at starter in the minors will be Jonathan Stiever, Bernardo Flores Jr. , and Jimmy Lambert with deeper starters in Garrett Crochet and Jared Kelley. 
 

Bullpen Pitchers: Losing Colome will be biggest question mark next season on who fills out the closer role. A healthy Aaron Bummer is the likely choice there. Obviously, that leaves a spot open in the set-up role. Returning High performer bullpen pitchers In addition to Bummer will be Matt Foster, Cody Heuer, and Evan Marshall. Sox lose Detweiler and probably Cishek. Bullpen arms that need further work and probably return are Jimmy Cordero, Jace Fry and Zack Burdi. Farm arms with MLB experience that will be considered are Ian Hamilton and Jose Ruiz. Sox farm hands that time may come are Tyler Johnson, or one of the young starters may get a bullpen shot first. Sox definitely have some work in the offseason free agency bolstering their bullpen, especially for a lefty option (right now only Bummer and Fry for 2021). 
 

In summary: Key free agency and/or trades for 2021 for starting Right Fielder, bullpen arms, another starting pitcher if the Sox don’t resign Gonzalez or Rodon, and Lopez goes to the bullpen. Movement within the organization should provide depth at all the positions not mentioned. 
 

Looking for feedback, Corrections, opinions on anything post-2020 season. Thanks....

[fathom]

One of the underrated aspects of how exciting the Sox are right now is that free agents will likely have more of a reason to come here. 

[TheTruth05]

4 minutes ago, fathom said:

One of the underrated aspects of how exciting the Sox are right now is that free agents will likely have more of a reason to come here. 

On the flip side of that, kind of like Brock Holt this past offseason, having out starters set in stone probably hinders us in getting decent depth for some guys that are fringe starters. Thankfully we kind of already have that in Mendick and maybe they can bring Leury back for cheap

Edited September 1, 2020 by TheTruth05

[southsider2k5]

It is really impossible to know this yet. The biggest question is does it look like we will play 162 next year AND will there be fans there. Past that, what the Sox do in the playoffs also has a big influence. 

[mqr]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The biggest question is does it look like we will play 162 next year AND will there be fans there. 

Yes and Probably not, at least at the start. 

[beautox]

Here are my thoughts

Let EE, Gio Gonzalez and Cishek all walk and pay the buy outs.

Exercise Leury's option.

Try to extend and lock up Giolito

Re-sign McCann for 3/24 with a vesting option with buy out.

Sign Quintana to a near identical deal as Keuchel; he has friends in the club house, familiarity with the staff and has played his whole career in Chicago, adds an additional veteran presence to the staff and helps the complexion of the rotation 3 RHSP & 2 LHSP. 

Sign Brantley or Pederson to be the long half of the platoon with Engel or make a move for one of the following: Alex Verdugo of the red sox, Drew Waters of the braves, Brandon Marsh of the angels or Dylan Carlson of the cards.

2021 Opening Day 

DH - Abreu
C - Grandal#
1B - Vaughn
2B - Madrigal
SS - Anderson
3B - Moncada#
LF - Jimenez
CF - Robert
RF - Verdugo*

C - McCann
UT - Mendick
UT - Garcia#
OF - Engel

SP - Giolito
SP - Keuchel*
SP - Cease
SP - Quintana*
SP - Dunning

CL - Bummer*
SU - Heuer
SU - Foster
SU - Marshall
MR - Cordero
MR - Fry*
MR - Burdi
LR - Rodon*

Batting order just to finish the #rosterbation

Anderson
Moncada#
Robert
Abreu
Grandal#
Jimenez
Vaughn
Verdugo*
Madrigal

[Timmy U]

Thanks for the breakdown.  I was looking at this myself last night.  Sure seems like Collins will be a fairly cheap back up catcher option and that all/most of the people you think will be gone will, in fact, be gone.  It's possible with all that money to play with, the Sox focus on RF.

I would love to know how Rutherford is doing in Schaumburg. The one article I read said he's showing more power, but there doesn't seem to be any buzz around him.  The fact that whoever plays RF is going to likely hit 8th certainly lowers the need to spend big $ on them.  Adolfo has a tough time fitting on this team because of how right-handed the squad already is. Gonzalez seems like a 4th OF, so the only one who could push for a starting job seems to be Rutherford, but I haven't heard anything that makes me believe that's likely.

There aren't really that many options out there.  I wonder what Joc Pederson goes for or if Mazara shows enough in the last month to warrant being tendered.  I suppose after a down year and with Kiriloff and Larnach looming, the Twins might look to move Kepler, but it's a team-friendly deal and why would they trade inside the division?  I have a hard time coming up with LH-hitting rightfielders that are either free agents or worth giving up much to get them

Spending a lot on a SP with Kopech looming also seems unlikely. Of course, if you believe you're a playoff team, having multiple players with control problems like Lopez, Cease, and more than likely Kopech in one rotation seems risky.

[soxfan49]

3 minutes ago, beautox said:

Here are my thoughts

Let EE, Gio Gonzalez and Cishek all walk and pay the buy outs.

Exercise Leury's option.

Try to extend and lock up Giolito

Re-sign McCann for 3/24 with a vesting option with buy out.

Sign Quintana to a near identical deal as Keuchel; he has friends in the club house, familiarity with the staff and has played his whole career in Chicago, adds an additional veteran presence to the staff and helps the complexion of the rotation 3 RHSP & 2 LHSP. 

Sign Brantley or Pederson to be the long half of the platoon with Engel or make a move for one of the following: Alex Verdugo of the red sox, Drew Waters of the braves, Brandon Marsh of the angels or Dylan Carlson of the cards.

2021 Opening Day 

DH - Abreu
C - Grandal#
1B - Vaughn
2B - Madrigal
SS - Anderson
3B - Moncada#
LF - Jimenez
CF - Robert
RF - Verdugo*

C - McCann
UT - Mendick
UT - Garcia#
OF - Engel

SP - Giolito
SP - Keuchel*
SP - Cease
SP - Quintana*
SP - Dunning

CL - Bummer*
SU - Heuer
SU - Foster
SU - Marshall
MR - Cordero
MR - Fry*
MR - Burdi
LR - Rodon*

Batting order just to finish the #rosterbation

Anderson
Moncada#
Robert
Abreu
Grandal#
Jimenez
Vaughn
Verdugo*
Madrigal

Giving Quintana the same contract as Keuchel doesn't seem like a great idea

Otherwise, I like the rest

[y2chae]

Depends how Quintana finishes the rest of the season.  If he's underwhelming I could see Quintana having to settle for a 1 year deal. 

[fathom]

McCann is long gone, he wants to be a full time starter. I think the Sox go outside organization for a backup

[BamaDoc]

Thanks for doing this.  I was working on something similar.  I agree with most of your thoughts.  I think Leury could be back as a super sub.  Prior to his injury, he was handling the role well.  3.5 million not outrageous and with the presumed return to a 25 man roster, positional flexibility will matter.  

Catcher:  I expect McCann to leave in order to be a #1.  It is why I didn't want to trade Collins as he will be the number two.  His left handed bat helps balance things out.  Defense needs to improve but hasn't been horrible.  

RF:  Mazara has the rest of the season to show that he can at least be a platoon player.  It may be a situation where he is offered a number and if he doesn't take it he is allowed to leave ala Yolmer last year.  His production doesn't merit the arbitration raise he would get.  May be a left handed veteran cheap free agent in part depending on Engel showing he is a platoon guy through the entire year.  He has really surprised me.  Not sure you have to cement the position as you may be looking at the number 7-8 guy in a lineup.

Mendick vs Yolmer:  Similar role and not sure either makes cut if Leury back.  Mendick struggling at plate a bit but is cheaper and can be stashed at AAA for depth.  Yolmer should be grateful to be back and his FA foray should have been a humbling experience.

Rotation:  Agree Gonzales optioned declined.  Could keep as long man/spot start if cheaper but I don't think he is much more than 1 maybe twice through lineup guy.  Rodon will want to start with free agency looming but he really needs to do whatever leads to health.  I could be mean and say he starts until injured then Kopech comes up but think Kopech stays down more than a couple starts....mean.

Bullpen is the biggest need.  Colome at 10 million isn't cheap, he doesn't pitch pretty, but gets the job done.  I could see a resign if terms are favorable but he may chase the biggest contract.  He has earned that right but if he leaves you probably add two guys at minimum one lefty.  Really seeing the pain in the bullpen without Bummer.  The young guys will be getting valuable experience this year so you should have a better idea but last night it looked like Heuer was feeling the pressure.  Not singling him out, they all have had moments good and not so good.  Lambert looked good but I don't know how bad he is injured.  You may find a veteran bullpen guy willing to come for a chance at a ring.  

 

 

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Giving Quintana the same contract as Keuchel doesn't seem like a great idea

Otherwise, I like the rest

Yeah 3/55 is a gigantic over pay.  I mean we might be talking half of that annually, and a year less.

[beautox]

10 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Giving Quintana the same contract as Keuchel doesn't seem like a great idea

Otherwise, I like the rest

 

8 minutes ago, y2chae said:

Depends how Quintana finishes the rest of the season.  If he's underwhelming I could see Quintana having to settle for a 1 year deal. 

 

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yeah 3/55 is a gigantic over pay.  I mean we might be talking half of that annually, and a year less.

I'm fine with him getting less, but I think anyone that thinks hes going to need a bounce back contract is kidding themselves.

Quintana just fits this club and franchise on so many levels.

Also remember Keuchel only pitched half a season with the braves to the tune of .08 fWAR before getting his deal, Jose will be the same age as Dallas was when his deal starts.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, beautox said:

 

 

I'm fine with him getting less, but I think anyone that thinks hes going to need a bounce back contract is kidding themselves.

Quintana just fits this club and franchise on so many levels.

Also remember Keuchel only pitched half a season with the braves to the tune of .08 fWAR before getting his deal, Jose will be the same age as Dallas was when his deal starts.

I'd put money on Q not seeing even 3/50 his off season.

[beautox]

Quintana had thumb surgery after a dish washing injury, its not like he blew out his forearm or his shoulder. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

35 minutes ago, TheTruth05 said:

On the flip side of that, kind of like Brock Holt this past offseason, having out starters set in stone probably hinders us in getting decent depth for some guys that are fringe starters. Thankfully we kind of already have that in Mendick and maybe they can bring Leury back for cheap

Supposedly  the Sox wanted to make Holt an for 3.5M but was deemed an inappropriate use of funds.

[beautox]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

I'd put money on Q not seeing even 3/50 his off season.

I'm willing to concede due to Covid and lack of attendance / collusion this year and likely up till June of next year that salaries will be depressed. 

[knightni]

Am I the only one who doesn't see much from Collins?

He's not a great catcher and he can't really hit.

I'd rather give Zavala or a free agent the shot as the back up catcher.

 

 

[GreenSox]

Leury can play IF or OF, so you get 2 utility players for the price of 1.  He's a much better option than Yolmer.  That would allow a pick up of, say, another OF who can play his position and actually hit.  That would mean that the Sox would need 2 good OFs and it would finally give them  a bench bat.
They'll need another reliever or 2...sign a couple of those.
And maybe they'll need a starter - we'll see.  If Rodon shows life this month, I'd pick up his last year; can't be that expensive anyway.  

[WBWSF]

I'm under the impression that Hahns contract runs out after this season. I would imagine he would want a big long term contract from JR. I hope JR lets him walk and I finally get interviewed for the GM job.

[steveno89]

28 minutes ago, beautox said:

Here are my thoughts

Let EE, Gio Gonzalez and Cishek all walk and pay the buy outs.

Exercise Leury's option.

Try to extend and lock up Giolito

Re-sign McCann for 3/24 with a vesting option with buy out.

Sign Quintana to a near identical deal as Keuchel; he has friends in the club house, familiarity with the staff and has played his whole career in Chicago, adds an additional veteran presence to the staff and helps the complexion of the rotation 3 RHSP & 2 LHSP. 

Sign Brantley or Pederson to be the long half of the platoon with Engel or make a move for one of the following: Alex Verdugo of the red sox, Drew Waters of the braves, Brandon Marsh of the angels or Dylan Carlson of the cards.

2021 Opening Day 

DH - Abreu
C - Grandal#
1B - Vaughn
2B - Madrigal
SS - Anderson
3B - Moncada#
LF - Jimenez
CF - Robert
RF - Verdugo*

C - McCann
UT - Mendick
UT - Garcia#
OF - Engel

SP - Giolito
SP - Keuchel*
SP - Cease
SP - Quintana*
SP - Dunning

CL - Bummer*
SU - Heuer
SU - Foster
SU - Marshall
MR - Cordero
MR - Fry*
MR - Burdi
LR - Rodon*

Batting order just to finish the #rosterbation

Anderson
Moncada#
Robert
Abreu
Grandal#
Jimenez
Vaughn
Verdugo*
Madrigal

I highly doubt any of the above players would be made available for trade, and if they were the cost would likely be exorbitant

[Timmy U]

4 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I highly doubt any of the above players would be made available for trade, and if they were the cost would likely be exorbitant

I second that. Verdugo was just traded for Mookie Betts. On a sidenote, because of previous character issues Verdugo would never play for a team I was running.

[beautox]

1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

I highly doubt any of the above players would be made available for trade, and if they were the cost would likely be exorbitant

Lets go down the list
Verdugo has 4 years of control left and Boston is rebuilding
Waters is blocked by Pache, Inciarte and Acuna and was dangled at the trade deadline.
Marsh is blocked by Trout, Adell, Upton and Ohtani
Carlson is blocked by O'Neill, Bader and Fowler

[bmags]

Man every year prior to this I'd be super into it but I just don't care care about being forward looking at all right now.

 

[poppysox]

20 minutes ago, knightni said:

Am I the only one who doesn't see much from Collins?

He's not a great catcher and he can't really hit.

I'd rather give Zavala or a free agent the shot as the back up catcher.

 

 

I would rather resign McCann and have he and Grandal share catching and DH duties.  McCann would cost less than EE so money shouldn't enter into the decision.