2021 Offseason Prediction: Who We Lose and What Will Be Our Needs?

[bmags]

24 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I really don’t get the hate Joc has been getting as of late.  Offensively he’d be a perfect one year place-holder in RF until Cespedes or Colas is ready and allows you to commit larger financial resources to your pitching staff that is more likely to need them.

I think the board has tended to struggle with players that are clearly better than what we have but not top 5 level. The good news about getting Joc for this team as opposed to 2015/16 is we aren't signing him and expecting him to propel us to the playoffs. We'd be just adding a good player to our core of excellent players. 

People are better at this with pitchers but last few years people would look at players that were clearly better but still be like "no I think Yolmer Sanchez can basically be that (and he'd put up his 79 wRC+ and the other person would put up 105-110).

[ChiSox1917]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

I think the board has tended to struggle with players that are clearly better than what we have but not top 5 level. The good news about getting Joc for this team as opposed to 2015/16 is we aren't signing him and expecting him to propel us to the playoffs. We'd be just adding a good player to our core of excellent players. 

People are better at this with pitchers but last few years people would look at players that were clearly better but still be like "no I think Yolmer Sanchez can basically be that (and he'd put up his 79 wRC+ and the other person would put up 105-110).

I dont buy that rationale.  People didnt want us signing average to above average free agents because 1) we were purposefully tanking to get higher draft picks and their signings wouldnt have made us a playoff team anyway, and 2) because it would potentially block our top prospects from getting more playing time.  No one thought yolmer was a long term answer as a starter.  

[almagest]

I guess if Engel can keep his 146 OPS+ against lefties and Pederson comes in with a 109 OPS+ against righties that'll be pretty solid. I'd like to aim for a more complete player but I don't know if that's gonna happen.

[MeanJoeCrede]

5 minutes ago, almagest said:

I guess if Engel can keep his 146 OPS+ against lefties and Pederson comes in with a 109 OPS+ against righties that'll be pretty solid. I'd like to aim for a more complete player but I don't know if that's gonna happen.

Pederson WRC+ against righties for his career is 130, not 109.

[almagest]

3 minutes ago, MeanJoeCrede said:

Pederson WRC+ against righties for his career is 130, not 109.

I'm looking at this year

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, almagest said:

I'm looking at this year

Small sample size.

[MeanJoeCrede]

1 minute ago, almagest said:

I'm looking at this year

Yes, always much better to look at SSS.

[Balta1701]

26 minutes ago, bmags said:

I think the board has tended to struggle with players that are clearly better than what we have but not top 5 level. The good news about getting Joc for this team as opposed to 2015/16 is we aren't signing him and expecting him to propel us to the playoffs. We'd be just adding a good player to our core of excellent players. 

People are better at this with pitchers but last few years people would look at players that were clearly better but still be like "no I think Yolmer Sanchez can basically be that (and he'd put up his 79 wRC+ and the other person would put up 105-110).

The problem with getting players who are "Better than we have but not top 5 level" is that when we've gotten those players, they have had an extremely high failure rate for us, and everyone else. They've been the ones who have dropped off partially to a ton, leaving us hanging. They're the Samardzija, Frazier, LaRoche, Encarnacion guys. So in the back of our heads, we're saying "Yes Joc has had a 130 wRC+ against righties in his career and we need that...but a tiny dropoff in that platoon split and suddenly we've got another flop". 

It's also...not wrong. Back when we were spending money, 2015-2017, I went through the guys you might consider "mid-level" free agents, the guys making $10-20 mil a year, and found that consistently the "bust rate" in them of guys where you want out of that contract was like 70%. It improved the last couple years as the FA market stalled, but in general those are just bad signings. You convince yourself the player has been consistent for x number of years and then you wind up having them take an immediate step backwards once they get to you, and it happens over and over. Your 2015 team signs 4 of them, Robertson performs well, but then you're asking how your other 3 big acquisitions all disappointed - those are normal numbers for these guys.

Sometimes you have to do that, if we have money to spend this offseason Joc makes sense, but gosh darnit it would be so nice to try out one of the kids in that spot. 

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said:

I dont buy that rationale.  People didnt want us signing average to above average free agents because 1) we were purposefully tanking to get higher draft picks and their signings wouldnt have made us a playoff team anyway, and 2) because it would potentially block our top prospects from getting more playing time.  No one thought yolmer was a long term answer as a starter.  

 We missed out on quality players that would have helped us this year, like had we signed Lance Lynn (as @Chicago White Sox advocated at the time), they were not blocking any "top prospects" they were blocking yolmer sanchez. 

You are only rebuilding until you aren't. Nelson Cruz, etc. Smart investments in good players that were available would have paid off. And now we are still apparently trying to have a bad player "payoff" for some reason while within the competitive window. Go figure.

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The problem with getting players who are "Better than we have but not top 5 level" is that when we've gotten those players, they have had an extremely high failure rate for us, and everyone else. They've been the ones who have dropped off partially to a ton, leaving us hanging. They're the Samardzija, Frazier, LaRoche, Encarnacion guys. So in the back of our heads, we're saying "Yes Joc has had a 130 wRC+ against righties in his career and we need that...but a tiny dropoff in that platoon split and suddenly we've got another flop". 

It's also...not wrong. Back when we were spending money, 2015-2017, I went through the guys you might consider "mid-level" free agents, the guys making $10-20 mil a year, and found that consistently the "bust rate" in them of guys where you want out of that contract was like 70%. It improved the last couple years as the FA market stalled, but in general those are just bad signings. You convince yourself the player has been consistent for x number of years and then you wind up having them take an immediate step backwards once they get to you, and it happens over and over. Your 2015 team signs 4 of them, Robertson performs well, but then you're asking how your other 3 big acquisitions all disappointed - those are normal numbers for these guys.

Sometimes you have to do that, if we have money to spend this offseason Joc makes sense, but gosh darnit it would be so nice to try out one of the kids in that spot. 

Trade

Trade and not really anything wrong with the Frazier trade he was fine. Give me a 3 WAR player in RF with lowsalary, seems good!

35 y.o.

38 y.o.

I know you were deeply scarred by the samardjiza trade but you'll notice a lot of playoff teams do indeed add players each year. And when you need to get rid of a player you just get rid of them. 

Every player now rumored on soxtalk: "Am I willing to spend the rest of my life with this person?"

[ChiSox1917]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

 We missed out on quality players that would have helped us this year, like had we signed Lance Lynn (as @Chicago White Sox advocated at the time), they were not blocking any "top prospects" they were blocking yolmer sanchez. 

You are only rebuilding until you aren't. Nelson Cruz, etc. Smart investments in good players that were available would have paid off. And now we are still apparently trying to have a bad player "payoff" for some reason while within the competitive window. Go figure.

Theres a big difference though between nomar mazara at 24 years old and $5.5 million a year and a 38 year old at $13 million a year.  History shows that most players dont peak until 26-28, while it also shows major drop offs for guys as old as cruz.  Maybe mazara peaked early, and maybe cruz really is ageless, but both of those things would be outside the norm.  

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said:

Theres a big difference though between nomar mazara at 24 years old and $5.5 million a year and a 38 year old at $13 million a year.  History shows that most players dont peak until 26-28, while it also shows major drop offs for guys as old as cruz.  Maybe mazara peaked early, and maybe cruz really is ageless, but both of those things would be outside the norm.  

They are the same in that they aren't hard to work around when they don't work out and they aren't working out but we are supposed to sacrifice the rest of the team so we can get, like, maybe a good year out of a player before he becomes a free agent. 

[almagest]

11 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Small sample size.

 

11 minutes ago, MeanJoeCrede said:

Yes, always much better to look at SSS.

It literally does not matter if its 109 or 130, Pederson is an improvement. The Pederson Defence Force needs to calm down.

[ChiSox1917]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

They are the same in that they aren't hard to work around when they don't work out and they aren't working out but we are supposed to sacrifice the rest of the team so we can get, like, maybe a good year out of a player before he becomes a free agent. 

Its easier to work around mazaras contract just simply ending than unloading joc on a multi year deal if he doesnt work out.  
 

Theres also the possibility mazara is still bothered by whatever illness kept him out at the beginning of the year.  The guy always had power at the very least with texas.  To see that sapped so completely makes me believe he hasnt fully recovered from it.  Very hard to judge him in this context this year.

I see the argument for joc but dont like it because it takes up more of our payroll and still leaves a hole in right field against lefties that would need to be addressed.  Id much rather gamble that mazara bounces back from the illness and enters his prime years as a .900/.700 ops guy against righties/lefties.  Ill admit its unlikely, but if he doesnt then we just sign conforto the next offseason.  

[Balta1701]

35 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said:

Its easier to work around mazaras contract just simply ending than unloading joc on a multi year deal if he doesnt work out.  
 

Theres also the possibility mazara is still bothered by whatever illness kept him out at the beginning of the year.  The guy always had power at the very least with texas.  To see that sapped so completely makes me believe he hasnt fully recovered from it.  Very hard to judge him in this context this year.

I see the argument for joc but dont like it because it takes up more of our payroll and still leaves a hole in right field against lefties that would need to be addressed.  Id much rather gamble that mazara bounces back from the illness and enters his prime years as a .900/.700 ops guy against righties/lefties.  Ill admit its unlikely, but if he doesnt then we just sign conforto the next offseason.  

But even given that, would you be willing to offer him $6 million next year? Because his salary this year is $5.6 million, and offering him arbitration would give him likely a small raise. 

More likely, you non-tender him, and he signs somewhere on a 1 year, $2-3 million deal with incentives, to see if it was the virus that knocked out his power and another year brings him back. Maybe less if teams are expecting attendance limits next year.

[Vulture]

5 hours ago, ChiSox1917 said:

Yes and ive repeatedly said joc is better. However he is 3 years older than mazara 

By that rationale, we would have been better off with Collins rather than Grandal or McCann

[Chicago White Sox]

Just to reiterate, the number one goal for this offseason should be to fortify the pitching.  As we saw last night, even a high pitchability guy like Dunning is going to hit bumps in the road.  Get one more starter in the 1-3 range and push Cease & Dunning down to the 4 & 5 spots.  That means short of an injury, Kopech starts off 2021 in AAA for a few months (buying back an extra year of team control) and replaces whoever is the weakest in the rotation at that time.

[Two-Gun Pete]

16 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

But even given that, would you be willing to offer him $6 million next year? Because his salary this year is $5.6 million, and offering him arbitration would give him likely a small raise. 

More likely, you non-tender him, and he signs somewhere on a 1 year, $2-3 million deal with incentives, to see if it was the virus that knocked out his power and another year brings him back. Maybe less if teams are expecting attendance limits next year.

GOD, no.

 

Let's set aside that Mazara's supposedly an offense-first player that needs a platoon partner. The bigger issues are:

1. He cannot move his feet, which means his range in the OF is approximately the size of a phone booth; if he ever gets on base, the basepaths are constipated by a station-to-station slug.

2. This team already has a DH in LF; having 2 shitty OFers makes this fragile pitching staff's job harder.

3. His absolute ceiling in terms of fWAR is probably no higher than 1.0, which is pretty close to being replacement-level. [Because of his crippling handedness deficit and his inability to move his feet.] 

4. As you mentioned, his Arb number is likely $6MM or higher.

5. Given what may likely be a depressed FA market this offseason, getting a cromulent 1.0 - 2.0 fWAR RFer will likely cost less than what Mazara will make in Arb.

6. This team likely will be in the heart of the competitive window. Waiting for a replacement level DH to figure out how to field, hit, and run is a complete waste of time, money, and resources.

7. [EDIT] Mazara has had some 2,200 PA at the MLB level. There just is no "figuring it out" after that many years and that many PA. He simply is what he is, PERIOD.

 

In sum, what SHOULD happen is that Mazara is cut loose, because he sucks out loud at baseball. What PROBABLY will happen is that he will be retained, because of KW's and RH's fee-fees/egos, and JR's thrift.

Edited September 5, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[ChiSox1917]

I wonder if the red sox would sell low on Benintendi 

[iWiN4PreP]

37 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said:

I wonder if the red sox would sell low on Benintendi 

I don't even know if we should be doing that at this point.

We are ready to contend. We should be aiming for someone that'll come in and hit the mark, not another Mazara level wishful thinking project.

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

45 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said:

I wonder if the red sox would sell low on Benintendi 

Given that the farm system is/was in decline and top-heavy due to MLB graduations, I did not like the idea of trading for Mazara, or giving away Basabe. [And I liked Delmonico/his story before he was found out to be AAAA quality.]

 

Given what are/will be some of the other needs that we can ALREADY forecast [bullpen depth, a closer, a SP or two, etc...], I'd rather not trade increasingly-scarce resources for an opportunity to pay a guy who may or may not work out as a RFer. Given that this upcoming offseason may feature suppressed FA valuation, I'd rather just pay money to find an everyday RFer. [i.e. "Be greedy when others are fearful; be fearful when others are greedy..."]

My preference would be to sign a pillow contract to someone whose likely to give us a cromulent glove and ~1-2 fWAR, AND sign one of the Cubanos [Colas or Cespedes] as a 2nd tier solution. Then, reserve whatever remaining MiLB depth to find the future closer, and/or to find that last piece at a trade deadline someday in the near future.

Edited September 5, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[ChiSox1917]

4 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

I don't even know if we should be doing that at this point.

We are ready to contend. We should be aiming for someone that'll come in and hit the mark, not another Mazara level wishful thinking project.

 

Benitendi was a 4.5 WAR player in 2018 at 24.  Hes been bothered by injuries the last two years but if healthy, hes a much better option than most other right field targets out there.  With the exception of springer, theyre all major gambles.  
 

baseball trade values weights benitendis value to be equal to collins.  Id make that trade straight up

Edited September 5, 2020 by ChiSox1917

[iWiN4PreP]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said:

Benitendi was a 4.5 WAR player in 2018 at 24.  Hes been bothered by injuries the last two years but if healthy, hes a much better option than most other right field targets out there.  With the exception of springer, theyre all major gambles.  
 

baseball trade values weights benitendis value to be equal to collins.  Id make that trade straight up

Absolutely, I was major IN on beni this year and strongly wanted him, but then the W'Sox got Mazara and Beni has continued to suck. 

But right now, we can pry away a competent/strong OF for almost nothing in the offseason. I wouldn't be mad if we got Beni (for contrast, I was mad at getting Mazara), but I don't know if it's the right move for the team right now. For example, look at the Marlins acquiring Starlin Marte. Why didn't we do that? Could of got Marte for pretty cheap and he is hitting really well with good speed (and I imagine a decent defender). Would a team heading into 2021 as top dogs rather have a guy like Starlin or a project like Beni?

 

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said:

Benitendi was a 4.5 WAR player in 2018 at 24.  Hes been bothered by injuries the last two years but if healthy, hes a much better option than most other right field targets out there.  With the exception of springer, theyre all major gambles.  
 

baseball trade values weights benitendis value to be equal to collins.  Id make that trade straight up

Why would the Red Sox make that trade though?

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why would the Red Sox make that trade though?

DUH! Because it would give RH a reason to re-sign McCann! Ya stoopid!! [j/k]