2021 Offseason Prediction: Who We Lose and What Will Be Our Needs?

[ChiSox1917]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why would the Red Sox make that trade though?

3 years of extra control.  If theyre at all worried about his health going forward, why not?

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, ChiSox1917 said:

3 years of extra control.  If theyre at all worried about his health going forward, why not?

Because they could probably get something and if they couldn’t why sell at a low point?

[ChiMaverick]

Just found this message board and this will be my first post. I believe we have $45m coming off the books next year and the James McCann debate is a big one. Any chance we take the risk and offer him a QO in hopes that he rejects it because he wants to be a starter somewhere? I know it's a lot of money for a backup if he accepts (last years number was $17.8m) but if you release EE then he can be in the DH rotation with Abreu and I'm assuming Vaughn may be up sometime in 2021

[Chicago White Sox]

35 minutes ago, ChiMaverick said:

Just found this message board and this will be my first post. I believe we have $45m coming off the books next year and the James McCann debate is a big one. Any chance we take the risk and offer him a QO in hopes that he rejects it because he wants to be a starter somewhere? I know it's a lot of money for a backup if he accepts (last years number was $17.8m) but if you release EE then he can be in the DH rotation with Abreu and I'm assuming Vaughn may be up sometime in 2021

Welcome to the board!

IMO, zero chance McCann turns down a QO as the pay would be substantial and most teams would be turned away from signing him if attached to a draft pick.

[South Side Hit Men]

5 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Welcome to the board!

IMO, zero chance McCann turns down a QO as the pay would be substantial and most teams would be turned away from signing him if attached to a draft pick.

 

5 hours ago, ChiMaverick said:

Just found this message board and this will be my first post. I believe we have $45m coming off the books next year and the James McCann debate is a big one. Any chance we take the risk and offer him a QO in hopes that he rejects it because he wants to be a starter somewhere? I know it's a lot of money for a backup if he accepts (last years number was $17.8m) but if you release EE then he can be in the DH rotation with Abreu and I'm assuming Vaughn may be up sometime in 2021

Welcome to the board @ChiMaverick! I agree McCann wouldn't turn one down. However, that is far beyond any budget the White Sox have ($40M for catchers).

I like McCann, and expect a depressed FA market regardless of whether fans can attend or not next year. Beyond a cost friendly contract (similar to this season's salary), I don't see him coming back. Any available money should be dedicated to pitching (not many good RF FAs next year) and perhaps utility depth.

Edited September 6, 2020 by South Side Hit Men

[Perfect Vision]

On 9/6/2020 at 9:36 AM, ChiMaverick said:

Just found this message board and this will be my first post. I believe we have $45m coming off the books next year and the James McCann debate is a big one. Any chance we take the risk and offer him a QO in hopes that he rejects it because he wants to be a starter somewhere? I know it's a lot of money for a backup if he accepts (last years number was $17.8m) but if you release EE then he can be in the DH rotation with Abreu and I'm assuming Vaughn may be up sometime in 2021

I would be in favor of offering McCann a QO.  It's a lot of money for a "back up" (although I don't really consider McCann's usage right now as a back up).  It's also a lot of money for a catcher.  But I think in the big picture, it works.  If the Sox don't pick up EE's option or sign another DH this offseason, then that money moves over to McCann.  If the Sox also don't tender Mazara and instead go with a Leury/Engel platoon, then I think the money would be close to a wash with what it is this year.

It's obvious that the Sox have great chemistry right now.  The ingredients are right.  I'm worried that losing McCann could have numerous adverse effects that extend beyond his actual numbers:  regression of the pitchers (especially Giolito), loss of leadership, etc.  If McCann leaves and the Sox underperform expectations to begin next season, I fully expect there to be rampant speculation on this board that the cause is the absence of McCann.  It seems guaranteed, in fact.

The grouping of Abreu, Grandal, McCann, and Vaughn for 1B, C, and DH can absolutely work.  Very similar to how RR balances Abreu, Grandal, McCann and EE for those three spots right now.

[southsider2k5]

57 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

I would be in favor of offering McCann a QO.  It's a lot of money for a "back up" (although I don't really consider McCann's usage right now as a back up).  It's also a lot of money for a catcher.  But I think in the big picture, it works.  If the Sox don't pick up EE's option or sign another DH this offseason, then that money moves over to McCann.  If the Sox also don't tender Mazara and instead go with a Leury/Engel platoon, then I think the money would be close to a wash with what it is this year.

It's obvious that the Sox have great chemistry right now.  The ingredients are right.  I'm worried that losing McCann could have numerous adverse effects that extend beyond his actual numbers:  regression of the pitchers (especially Giolito), loss of leadership, etc.  If McCann leaves and the Sox underperform expectations to begin next season, I fully expect there to be rampant speculation on this board that the cause is the absence of McCann.  It seems guaranteed, in fact.

The grouping of Abreu, Grandal, McCann, and Vaughn for 1B, C, and DH can absolutely work.  Very similar to how RR balances Abreu, Grandal, McCann and EE for those three spots right now.

A QO for McCann probably means the team goes cheap somewhere else as they would have roughly $35 million tied up in just the catching position next year.  Is McCann worth not getting another decent to good starting pitcher?  Is it worth having Mazara in RF again in 21?  Is it worth blocking Andrew Vaughn for another year?  Because that is what this would mean.

[Perfect Vision]

11 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

A QO for McCann probably means the team goes cheap somewhere else as they would have roughly $35 million tied up in just the catching position next year.  Is McCann worth not getting another decent to good starting pitcher?  Is it worth having Mazara in RF again in 21?  Is it worth blocking Andrew Vaughn for another year?  Because that is what this would mean.

I would hope that not picking up EE's option (or signing a free agent to DH), combined with non-tendering Mazara and going with Engel/Leury instead, would compensate for the QO salary going to McCann.  And that would leave the money available from Gio Gonzalez's, Cishek's, and Herrera's salaries coming off the books to pursue a starting pitcher, if they choose.  I don't think bringing McCann back blocks Vaughn, any more than EE is blocked by the presence of McCann.  What it would mean is that instead of Abreu, Grandal, and Vaughn getting 160 starts each next year, Abreu, Grandal, Vaughn, and McCann get 110-130 starts each.

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

I would hope that not picking up EE's option (or signing a free agent to DH), combined with non-tendering Mazara and going with Engel/Leury instead, would compensate for the QO salary going to McCann.  And that would leave the money available from Gio Gonzalez's, Cishek's, and Herrera's salaries coming off the books to pursue a starting pitcher, if they choose.  I don't think bringing McCann back blocks Vaughn, any more than EE is blocked by the presence of McCann.  What it would mean is that instead of Abreu, Grandal, and Vaughn getting 160 starts each next year, Abreu, Grandal, Vaughn, and McCann get 110-130 starts each.

Your math doesn't really work once you consider that Abreu is going to play at least 150 games next year if he is healthy, as he always does.  The team will not leave Abreu on the bench for 30 to 50 games in favor of James McCann, nor should they.

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Your math doesn't really work once you consider that Abreu is going to play at least 150 games next year if he is healthy, as he always does.  The team will not leave Abreu on the bench for 30 to 50 games in favor of James McCann, nor should they.

Its also worth noting that without even looking at arb raises, options, exercises, and free agents, the Sox have ~18 million dollars in raises to pay next year going to players who are signed through at least 21.  They have about another 2 million in options that they would owe if they declined all of them. So while people are talking about having $45 million in salary not coming back next year around ~$20 million of that is already spent just in owed raises and declined options, without replacing a single player.  If we were to QO McCann that is about a $13 million raise just going to him, which would leave something like $12-ish million out of that $45 million in savings to spend to fill RF, SP, any RP positions and replacing guys like Leury, Cishek, etc.

You have to look deeper than just what is coming off of the books next year. 

[Perfect Vision]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Your math doesn't really work once you consider that Abreu is going to play at least 150 games next year if he is healthy, as he always does.  The team will not leave Abreu on the bench for 30 to 50 games in favor of James McCann, nor should they.

Fine, if you insist, let's do the math.

Assuming perfect health, let's give Abreu 155 starts next year.  That's about his average over his career when healthy.

There are 486 total starts among 1B, C, and DH.  Taking Abreu's 155 out, that leaves 331 for McCann, Grandal, and Vaughn.  Let's give Grandal 131 (about his career average), McCann 100, and Vaughn 100.  That works.  Remember, Vaughn is probably staying in the minors the first 15 games of the year or so anyway, to get the extra year of control.  This also assumes perfect health for all four players, which we all know probably won't be the case.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Perfect Vision said:

Fine, if you insist, let's do the math.

Assuming perfect health, let's give Abreu 155 starts next year.  That's about his average over his career when healthy.

There are 486 total starts among 1B, C, and DH.  Taking Abreu's 155 out, that leaves 331 for McCann, Grandal, and Vaughn.  Let's give Grandal 131 (about his career average), McCann 100, and Vaughn 100.  That works.  Remember, Vaughn is probably staying in the minors the first 15 games of the year or so anyway, to get the extra year of control.  This also assumes perfect health for all four players, which we all know probably won't be the case.

So you are going to pay James McCann somewhere around $18 million for 100 games next year?

[Quin]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

So you are going to pay James McCann somewhere around $18 million for 100 games next year?

You could hypothetically trade him at the deadline.

[Perfect Vision]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

So you are going to pay James McCann somewhere around $18 million for 100 games next year?

You got it.

I don't want to get too into this, but McCann has 1.1 fWAR for 20 starts this year.  Maybe he doesn't keep that up over 100 starts, but you're still looking at potentially 4 WAR for that $18 mil over 100 starts.

And again, if there's an injury, or Vaughn struggles, that number of starts could go way up.  100 seems like the minimum.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Quin said:

You could hypothetically trade him at the deadline.

I mean I think 100% of Soxtalk would like James McCann back and is super impressed with how he has played.  But at the same time, not being aware of the impact of resigning him would have on the rest of the roster is an exercise in futility.  The roster numbers, plus McCann needing to be a starting catcher somewhere just don't add up to his being with the White Sox next year.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Perfect Vision said:

You got it.

I don't want to get too into this, but McCann has 1.1 fWAR for 20 starts this year.  Maybe he doesn't keep that up over 100 starts, but you're still looking at potentially 4 WAR for that $18 mil over 100 starts.

And again, if there's an injury, or Vaughn struggles, that number of starts could go way up.  100 seems like the minimum.

There is zero chance the Sox will spent that kind of money on James McCann as a half time starter, when they have other much more significant holes on the roster which will result in WAY more impact on the W/L of this team. It would be almost negligent of the front office to do so.

[SonofaRoache]

My order of needs

1. Bauer

2. Competent RF

3. Super subs that keeps us injury proof, have speed, and play D. We may have a few already, but we will see. 

4. Closer

5. Game plan on keeping all of core guys together through 2027. Have a plan for 2023 and 2024 early. Payroll must grow bigger to have a legit shot at 2 or 3 championships, which would be a huge turning point for the White Sox historically. Time to change the game and the brand. 

[Perfect Vision]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

There is zero chance the Sox will spent that kind of money on James McCann as a half time starter, when they have other much more significant holes on the roster which will result in WAY more impact on the W/L of this team. It would be almost negligent of the front office to do so.

You seem to be getting hung up on this notion of "part time" or "half time" player, and using that as reason for not paying McCann $18 mil next year.  A starting pitcher only impacts 30-35 games a year.  A high end reliever may only pitch 50 innings.  Are those guys part time players in your mind?  Because they only play part time, but still get substantial salaries.  It's about the overall value you're getting.  WAR is probably the best stat we have at assessing that.  I just showed that only playing "part time," McCann could still give you 4+ WAR.  That's worth the $18 mil.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Perfect Vision said:

You seem to be getting hung up on this notion of "part time" or "half time" player, and using that as reason for not paying McCann $18 mil next year.  A starting pitcher only impacts 30-35 games a year.  A high end reliever may only pitch 50 innings.  Are those guys part time players in your mind?  Because they only play part time, but still get substantial salaries.  It's about the overall value you're getting.  WAR is probably the best stat we have at assessing that.  I just showed that only playing "part time," McCann could still give you 4+ WAR.  That's worth the $18 mil.

Even in his all-star year of 2019 he gave us 2.3 fWAR in 118 games.  There is no chance he is going to put up twice as much WAR in half of the games.  This isn't Mike Trout we are talking about here.  I get he has been really good in a SSS this year, but he is playing almost only in ideal match ups this year.  You can't just take his 1.1 war in 20 games and multiply it by 8 to get a full season number.

Those numbers take a hit if he starts facing a lot more RHP, not to mention as a DH he doesn't have the same impact on the game as he does behind the plate.

When he signed in 2018, I never thought the day that people would be expecting Mike Trout numbers out of James McCann, but here we are.

[Perfect Vision]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Even in his all-star year of 2019 he gave us 2.3 fWAR in 118 games.  There is no chance he is going to put up twice as much WAR in half of the games.  This isn't Mike Trout we are talking about here.  I get he has been really good in a SSS this year, but he is playing almost only in ideal match ups this year.  You can't just take his 1.1 war in 20 games and multiply it by 8 to get a full season number.

Those numbers take a hit if he starts facing a lot more RHP, not to mention as a DH he doesn't have the same impact on the game as he does behind the plate.

When he signed in 2018, I never thought the day that people would be expecting Mike Trout numbers out of James McCann, but here we are.

Wasn't it RHPs that he hit 2 bombs against last night?

[Quin]

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Even in his all-star year of 2019 he gave us 2.3 fWAR in 118 games.  There is no chance he is going to put up twice as much WAR in half of the games.  This isn't Mike Trout we are talking about here.  I get he has been really good in a SSS this year, but he is playing almost only in ideal match ups this year.  You can't just take his 1.1 war in 20 games and multiply it by 8 to get a full season number.

Those numbers take a hit if he starts facing a lot more RHP, not to mention as a DH he doesn't have the same impact on the game as he does behind the plate.

When he signed in 2018, I never thought the day that people would be expecting Mike Trout numbers out of James McCann, but here we are.

The Bill Walton game was a sign.

[bmags]

One - people need to just enjoy having two really good players at a position and not try and pit them against each other.

But in defense of James, one thing that was really impressive was last year we had two catchers (him and navarro) that were better against lefties. But James made his presence by smashing Righties out of nowhere last year and not looking back.

[Jack Parkman]

Is there a better option than Colome on the closer market? 

Ok Hendriks or Treinen? 

Edited September 10, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Perfect Vision said:

Wasn't it RHPs that he hit 2 bombs against last night?

If you really want to pull some SSS, those two homers gave him 48 ABs this year against righties and pushed him up to 119 OPS+, against lefties this year it is 223 which is ridiculously unsustainable.

Last year he was exactly an average hitter against RHP with an OPS+ of 100 and 125 against lefties.

For his career he is 85 OPS+ against RHP, and 138 against LHP.

McCann screams platoon hitter.

[pcq]

There are too many variables to just say he is gone. He may step up in the playoffs and we have to keep him. Saying that resources are limited is kind of robotic. If no one signs for a couple of months the whole landscape could change. If teams are losing money the market will be impacted. Will the players panic and sign anywhere? I would highly expect the Sox will make an offer or wait to hear back from his agent. If they find a decent SP for value it could affect McCann.