FS: Top 30 Prospects-16-30

[Y2Jimmy0]

Some interesting names on the back end of this list. What does everyone think? Should someone be higher/lower? https://www.futuresox.com/2020/09/02/top-white-sox-prospect-rankings-midseason-2020-16-30/

[southsider2k5]

Any idea how rookie deadlines are being done this year?  It is the usual number of ABs or are they bring pro-rated?  Curious as to how much longer guys like Heuer will be on the list.

As to the list, I am liking it!  Really like seeing some of the Latin names creeping into the back of the list, and poised for breakout seasons once baseball starts again in the minors.  A guy like Rodriguez is one who could end up in the top 10 this time next year.

[Y2Jimmy0]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Any idea how rookie deadlines are being done this year?  It is the usual number of ABs or are they bring pro-rated?  Curious as to how much longer guys like Heuer will be on the list.

As to the list, I am liking it!  Really like seeing some of the Latin names creeping into the back of the list, and poised for breakout seasons once baseball starts again in the minors.  A guy like Rodriguez is one who could end up in the top 10 this time next year.

We always use 130 at bats, 50 IP or 45 non September days on the active roster. That's what the industry generally uses. Mendick graduated due to at-bats. Collins due to 45 man days. Robert will cross 130 at-bats in a couple days so the "system" is about to get a lot worse haha. 

[bmags]

My only two takeaways:

- I wouldn’t have Yolbert on the list

- I’d probably have Pilkington lower

- I think Fosters writeup kinda misses that his stuff changed. 
 

I really, really disliked Hostetlers drafted pitchers in rounds 2-10 but obviously they found some good bullpen pieces.

 

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Some interesting names on the back end of this list. What does everyone think? Should someone be higher/lower? https://www.futuresox.com/2020/09/02/top-white-sox-prospect-rankings-midseason-2020-16-30/

Great list, James. I appreciate the work you guys put into these lists.

I think I may have asked this question in the past, but what is your thought process while ranking these players?  Specifically, if you are creating your list and you get to a slot where you are debating between a couple players, what drives the decision to rank Player A ahead of Player B?  Higher ceiling?  More likely to reach the majors? Preference to keep one over the other if you had to trade one?

I personally like that latter criteria the best. For example, if on August 31 I heard that we made a trade and it was either Yolbert Sanchez or Matt Foster being shipped to another team, I would prefer to keep Foster.  Therefore, I would probably have Foster high on my rankings.

I'm curious to hear what criteria you (and others) use.

 

[steveno89]

31 minutes ago, bmags said:

My only two takeaways:

- I wouldn’t have Yolbert on the list

- I’d probably have Pilkington lower

- I think Fosters writeup kinda misses that his stuff changed. 
 

I really, really disliked Hostetlers drafted pitchers in rounds 2-10 but obviously they found some good bullpen pieces.

 

Jonathan Stiever is looking like a quality draft pick^

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Little Nicky 1 said:

I disagree with the pitchers in rounds 2-10. Thompson, Dalquist, Heuer, Lambert, Stiever, Flores, McClure, Henzeman, Hansen (Where he was picked was worth a gamble), Sousa has had some success as well. Looks pretty good to me. 

I guess I probably shouldn't run with the "rumor" that hostetler wasn't main guy running the 2019 draft post round 2, as it's 2019 draft when I like our pitchers. The bolded are like the epitome of the pitchers I hated under Hostetler. But you are right, Lambert, Heuer do make decent production despite Lambert's poor injury history.. The rest, no.

 

2016 was a really damn good draft class and I hate everything about how we handled it.

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, Little Nicky 1 said:

If you're going by "rumors" on a message board, yeah you shouldn't believe them. You have 2 examples out of 4 years. Not many high school pitchers/players are signing where those two went. Did Lambert have injury history when he was drafted? SO you say the rest no. Now that you have hindsight I am sure you hate Hansen, but the year after he was drafted there was none of that talk. So you hate Stiever by what I am reading as well. Go ahead and die on that sword. Pitching was never my issue under Hostetler. My issue with him was the Sheets and Walker picks. Those should have been high school. Just like the pick he made in '19. Maybe not taking more pitchers  in the 1st and 2nd round, but by my count there has been 8-9 major league players from 3 drafts and you can't count 19 yet. I'll take my chances with that.

You can't take apart a draft and talk about not drafting college players at specific point in a draft.  With the spending system the way that it is, if you spend up to get early HS picks, it totally changes what you have to do ahead of and behind that pick to afford the over slot price of a HS player.  To get multiple HS players early, you have to draft way underslot with your first pick, or punt pretty much every pick after them to save enough money for the overslot spending.

[bmags]

I don't...know where that response went but, that "rumor" came from a trusted poster who has gotten much of the sox scouting work done well and considering how different 2019 was, and how consistent it was to 2020, I'm not swayed by your argument. Though I suppose it's possible you are Nick Hostetler.

You also...didn't list every pitcher he drafted but are quibbling with me picking out just 2. If you are upset about his hitters, the pitching profile that they so often went after was the physically maxed out, productive in college, control heavy college pitcher in rounds 3-10. Similar to the physically maxed out, productive, good BB:K ratios they looked at in 2017 hitters, but missed out on their already average power and poor athleticism.

Stiever was his obviously good pick and I didn't realize I had to acknowledge him. The reason I liked him is he was touted as being a good athlete who repeated his delivery well. It's not that you only draft people like that, but they were not drafting very athletic pitchers or hitters outside of (and really even in) the first round. It was all college, and they were already showing their ceiling limits by A+.

Hansen had good writeups from sox people. People eat up the "he could have been 1-1 last year". He had talent, but he failed in the most predictable way anyone would have said pre-draft he would fail. He lacked command (understatement) and had maturity issues (understatement). I hope he puts it back together. But to have 3 picks in the top 50, and I hope that we got a very good reliever out of it. 

[bmags]

Now THAT said, I think just having this conversation makes me revise my take level down. The bullpen pieces that have come together this year really do change the complexion of the drafts. That is immensely helpful that a heuer landed right when we needed them to. And it is the 2nd round pick in general that was so obnoxious, espeically going over slot for college juniors for some reason.

But, yeah looking through it, much more productive than I expected due to some real big jumps last year, which was just a phenomenal year for our farm.

[Y2Jimmy0]

5 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

Great list, James. I appreciate the work you guys put into these lists.

I think I may have asked this question in the past, but what is your thought process while ranking these players?  Specifically, if you are creating your list and you get to a slot where you are debating between a couple players, what drives the decision to rank Player A ahead of Player B?  Higher ceiling?  More likely to reach the majors? Preference to keep one over the other if you had to trade one?

I personally like that latter criteria the best. For example, if on August 31 I heard that we made a trade and it was either Yolbert Sanchez or Matt Foster being shipped to another team, I would prefer to keep Foster.  Therefore, I would probably have Foster high on my rankings.

I'm curious to hear what criteria you (and others) use.

 

It's complicated. I generally prefer upside. Others aren't like that though. Looking at the glut of outfielders that the Sox had for example, I always preferred Luis Gonzalez to Blake Rutherford and Steele Walker because I was confident that Gonzalez could stay in CF and that makes him more valuable than a corner only guy. I usually only rank relievers that can be high leverage guys. The Sox system is weird though. We have some writers who think it makes more sense to put Ian Hamilton or even like Will Kincanon at the back end of the list but I'd much prefer an 18 year old catcher that mashed in the DSL. 

Proximity to majors matters for me too though. I would probably trade Jonathan Stiever before I'd trade Matthew Thompson but I rank Stiever higher because he's closer to the majors. It honestly just depends. My personal list went out for Patreon subscribers today. I put Jake Burger at #14. I had him at #30 in the preseason. Him being healthy and me seeing him personally in Schaumburg a few weeks back was a game changer for me. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

I don't...know where that response went but, that "rumor" came from a trusted poster who has gotten much of the sox scouting work done well and considering how different 2019 was, and how consistent it was to 2020, I'm not swayed by your argument. Though I suppose it's possible you are Nick Hostetler.

You also...didn't list every pitcher he drafted but are quibbling with me picking out just 2. If you are upset about his hitters, the pitching profile that they so often went after was the physically maxed out, productive in college, control heavy college pitcher in rounds 3-10. Similar to the physically maxed out, productive, good BB:K ratios they looked at in 2017 hitters, but missed out on their already average power and poor athleticism.

Stiever was his obviously good pick and I didn't realize I had to acknowledge him. The reason I liked him is he was touted as being a good athlete who repeated his delivery well. It's not that you only draft people like that, but they were not drafting very athletic pitchers or hitters outside of (and really even in) the first round. It was all college, and they were already showing their ceiling limits by A+.

Hansen had good writeups from sox people. People eat up the "he could have been 1-1 last year". He had talent, but he failed in the most predictable way anyone would have said pre-draft he would fail. He lacked command (understatement) and had maturity issues (understatement). I hope he puts it back together. But to have 3 picks in the top 50, and I hope that we got a very good reliever out of it. 

Yeah so in hindsight, I'm not a fan of how 2016 and 2017 went but there was kind of an org philosophy to insulate the system with safer talent. It's hard to call the 2016 draft bad because you could have 5-6 big leaguers from that class. 2017 was a problem though. It's just too many college players and low upside college players. The worst thing that they did was overslot college players in round two of drafts. It just never made any sense. Instead of giving Gavin Sheets or Steele Walker $2 million, give that to a high school guy. 

Nick Hostetler would tell you though that he's more proud of the processes he put in place and the changes made to the department than he is any of the players he took. They're in a solid spot going forward in amateur scouting and more importantly in development. 

[oldsox]

Jimmy, can you tell us about prospects in DR and Panama (Ben Bailey).  What are they doing baseball - wise?  I understand our US prospects are working out on their own and taking Zoom courses, etc.  We have facilities in DR.  Are they being used?

[southsider2k5]

1-15

 

[yesterday333]

15 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

It's complicated. I generally prefer upside. Others aren't like that though. Looking at the glut of outfielders that the Sox had for example, I always preferred Luis Gonzalez to Blake Rutherford and Steele Walker because I was confident that Gonzalez could stay in CF and that makes him more valuable than a corner only guy. I usually only rank relievers that can be high leverage guys. The Sox system is weird though. We have some writers who think it makes more sense to put Ian Hamilton or even like Will Kincanon at the back end of the list but I'd much prefer an 18 year old catcher that mashed in the DSL. 

Proximity to majors matters for me too though. I would probably trade Jonathan Stiever before I'd trade Matthew Thompson but I rank Stiever higher because he's closer to the majors. It honestly just depends. My personal list went out for Patreon subscribers today. I put Jake Burger at #14. I had him at #30 in the preseason. Him being healthy and me seeing him personally in Schaumburg a few weeks back was a game changer for me. 

So what is it about seeing Burger that was a game changer for you? Was it just because he is healthy or did he look really good? Did you see him working at positions besides 3rd? Thanks for all this great stuff.

[Y2Jimmy0]

16 hours ago, oldsox said:

Jimmy, can you tell us about prospects in DR and Panama (Ben Bailey).  What are they doing baseball - wise?  I understand our US prospects are working out on their own and taking Zoom courses, etc.  We have facilities in DR.  Are they being used?

They're working out on their own in home countries. Benyamin Bailey told me meets with White Sox staff on Zoom every week. They have Motus sleeves that you use when working out so team can track their progress. The DR facility is open and some players live there 

[Y2Jimmy0]

40 minutes ago, yesterday333 said:

So what is it about seeing Burger that was a game changer for you? Was it just because he is healthy or did he look really good? Did you see him working at positions besides 3rd? Thanks for all this great stuff.

He's healthy. He's hitting and running. He looks fine at 3B. He's got a long way to go because of the missed time but I still think he's a top 15 prospect in the system because health was the main issue. 

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Y2Jimmy0 said:

He's healthy. He's hitting and running. He looks fine at 3B. He's got a long way to go because of the missed time but I still think he's a top 15 prospect in the system because health was the main issue. 

I mean the bat was always expected to play, his question was could he play a serviceable enough 3B to keep him out of the 1B log jam, right?

[Quin]

2 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

He's healthy. He's hitting and running. He looks fine at 3B. He's got a long way to go because of the missed time but I still think he's a top 15 prospect in the system because health was the main issue. 

This is exciting and awesome.

[BamaDoc]

If he plays in the fall and does well or even next spring, Burger may become our best trade chip.  Unless you keep him as legitimate depth for Moncada.  Wish he hit left handed.

[BamaDoc]

Here is something to look at on 16-30 which speaks to some depth problems.  I count 8 unproven teenagers.  2 older unproven prospects and 4 relievers.  The two starting pitchers are Flores and Pilkington who probably profile as #5 or reliever.  At least with the teenagers, it won't impact Rule 5 status for awhile.

[Y2Jimmy0]

There are absolutely depth problems. We need to hope that guys like Bryce Bush, Benyamin Bailey, James Beard, etc turn into legit prospects. They'll likely be adding Vera and possibly Colas to next year's list and then you have 20 draft picks. They need to keep drafting well and keep their system in the 10-20 range. 

[Perfect Vision]

Great to hear Burger is back and healthy.  Ironically, the layoff for him could increase the chances he eventually has a place with the Sox.  Moncada should be at 3B for a long time and Vaughn at 1B, but when Abreu's contract is up after 2022 (about the time Burger may be MLB ready), he could fit in nicely as the DH.  Fingers crossed that Eloy is established and comfortable in LF by that time.