Playoff Pitching Staff

[southsider2k5]

18 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Every time I think about how we’ll have to scrape together a rotation to help this dynamic offense in the playoffs I can’t help but get really annoyed with Kopech.  This season is such a perfect opportunity for him to contribute to something special.  His team needs him; he’s not here.  I’m really not accustomed to finding myself on what’s considered the “meatball” end of the fan spectrum, but here we are. 

I am going to guess he might be more upset about this than anyone else.  It will be interesting to see how he gets back at it next year, or if there are lasting problems either in the franchise or with Kopech beacuse of it.

[southsider2k5]

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The overuse of the bullpen has been building up since the first couple of weeks. Guys always want to know why certain guys aren't pitching and certain are and it has a lot to do with the year long management as well as the day to day.

The White Sox are averaging 4.85 IP per Start; it's not good, but it's actually not anywhere near the worst this year. The Red Sox are only getting 3.8 IP per start. The Sox are actually 11th in baseball in IP per start, so they are not alone in this issue. Is that different than most years? 

The Sox would be on pace to throw 785 IP with their starters over the course of a 162 game season. Last year that would have ranked them 26th out of 30 teams in all of baseball in fewest IP by starters. That means clearly this year has moved the needled heavily in favor of bullpens. What does that mean? Really, who knows. If the Bullpens are worn down earlier, it could lead to a higher scoring post season or more reliance on the starters to go longer since they were the ones preserved earlier in the season. If Cease can figure it out that bodes well for the Sox, imo, as the starting pitching around baseball is struggling in general. 

Last year, White Sox relievers threw 574 IP in 162 games; this year, the Sox are on pace to throw 311 innings in just 60 games, which would equate to 839.7 IP in the course of a regular year. The Sox are leaning on their bullpen significantly more than years past, and they're hoping it bends at points but never breaks. Time will tell, but next time you're wondering why Renteria doesn't pull every starter at the first sign of weakness, this is why.

Its a combination of everything

Lack of Spring Training

Lack of conditioning

Lack of normal rate of off days

Guys starting to get exposed after overusage

A lot of young SP struggling to learn on the job as starters

[South Side Hit Men]

52 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Every time I think about how we’ll have to scrape together a rotation to help this dynamic offense in the playoffs I can’t help but get really annoyed with Kopech.  This season is such a perfect opportunity for him to contribute to something special.  His team needs him; he’s not here.  I’m really not accustomed to finding myself on what’s considered the “meatball” end of the fan spectrum, but here we are. 

Whatever they are able to salvage via trade or performance in the future is a bonus. The whole drama surrounding leaving the team would only be an unnecessary distraction to the team at this point.

If he is willing and able to return to baseball in a future season, perhaps he can contribute beyond four starts for the White Sox, or be included in a trade that nets players who can contribute.

 

Edited September 8, 2020 by South Side Hit Men

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

And I'll add what Rick Renteria is doing to Jimmy Cordero is criminal; even if Cordero says he feels good every day.

I also think stranded runners should lower a relievers ERA based on the expected runs scored when he enters the game. Cordero's ERA is inflated but he's actually been pretty damn good this year.

Edited September 8, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Chisoxfn]

10 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

No I was a member here then. You can see that as my signature at the bottom of my posts where I list a bunch of Soxtalk members who were in So Cal at the time. There really was no official So Cal Chapter of Soxtalk. It was just something I made up in my head. I did attend the game 5 clincher in Anaheim with my buddy White Sox Murph who I got to join this site but he never became a contributing member. If you have the DVD of the Chicago White Sox 2005 World Series Collectors Edition  the fifth game to win the pennant in Anaheim, there was a part of it during the Pepsi 7th inning fan cam where they showed a little boy sitting on his fathers lap. That was White Sox Murph and his son Cooper.We grew up together in Chicago on the SW side. I was right next to them but it was a tight shot so I wasn't on camera.

As far as the bullpen goes I didn't really care how they have been used to this point only with how I envision them being used in the playoffs. I want our best guys on in the 7th and 8th before Colome when we are ahead in order of who I see as the best options without Bummer. 1. Foster 2. Tossup between Heuer and Marshall 3. Detwiler but of course it all depends on who is batting. Detwiler if the upcoming hitters are left handed. I'd haven't checked their splits but that's for more in depth analysis.

Cordero I see as being used to bail out a starter with men on base and not much more than that.

We definitely had a good contingent at those Angel series. 

[gusguyman]

1 hour ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Every time I think about how we’ll have to scrape together a rotation to help this dynamic offense in the playoffs I can’t help but get really annoyed with Kopech.  This season is such a perfect opportunity for him to contribute to something special.  His team needs him; he’s not here.  I’m really not accustomed to finding myself on what’s considered the “meatball” end of the fan spectrum, but here we are. 

FWIW, its perfectly normal and not a meatball reaction at all to experience anger or frustration that we are missing a pitcher we hoped would be turning into a future ace this year. What would make you a meatball fan is if you can't then put those emotions aside, and instead blame, judge, and/or castigate Kopech the person for making a decision that had ramifications far beyond baseball, and was completely his right to make.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I see Cease has a FIP of 6.3.. Is this accurate?  How could that be?

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

51 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

And I'll add what Rick Renteria is doing to Jimmy Cordero is criminal; even if Cordero says he feels good every day.

I also think stranded runners should lower a relievers ERA based on the expected runs scored when he enters the game. Cordero's ERA is inflated but he's actually been pretty damn good this year.

If he comes in with a runner on 2nd that runner does not count towards his ERA.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

If he comes in with a runner on 2nd that runner does not count towards his ERA.

Thanks Yermin, I understand that; I'm saying a reliever should almost receive credit for stranding a runner that he inherits in some way.

[Chicago White Sox]

16 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I see Cease has a FIP of 6.3.. Is this accurate?  How could that be?

It’s true, unfortunately he’s been bad at all three core FIP metrics (BB rate, K rate, & HR rate).

[gusguyman]

11 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Thanks Yermin, I understand that; I'm saying a reliever should almost receive credit for stranding a runner that he inherits in some way.

I've plugged it before but there is a really cool stat with a really uncool name that does what you are talking about: RE24 (Run Expectancy based on 24 base-out states)

Jimmy Cordero has an RE24 of 1.09 right now, which is ok but not particularly good. 

[southsider2k5]

One of more thing of note with Kopech, I know everyone who is trying to plug him into this season is trying to do so while assuming he would be healthy, but we really can't make that assumption when you look at how bad health has been for pitchers.

[Quin]

1 hour ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Every time I think about how we’ll have to scrape together a rotation to help this dynamic offense in the playoffs I can’t help but get really annoyed with Kopech.  This season is such a perfect opportunity for him to contribute to something special.  His team needs him; he’s not here.  I’m really not accustomed to finding myself on what’s considered the “meatball” end of the fan spectrum, but here we are. 

 

38 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

FWIW, its perfectly normal and not a meatball reaction at all to experience anger or frustration that we are missing a pitcher we hoped would be turning into a future ace this year. What would make you a meatball fan is if you can't then put those emotions aside, and instead blame, judge, and/or castigate Kopech the person for making a decision that had ramifications far beyond baseball, and was completely his right to make.

I think we can ultimately agree that what we should be angriest about is a global pandemic, because Kopech's newborn child needs him more than this team ever will.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

30 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Thanks Yermin, I understand that; I'm saying a reliever should almost receive credit for stranding a runner that he inherits in some way.

They do have stranded runner rates but I'm sure you know  that also.

[Chicago White Sox]

Here’s what I’d like to see for our postseason pitching staff after the Crotchet call-up and seeing the how the playoff schedule actually works.  I still don’t think we’ll go with a five man rotation, so that means Lopez & Gonzalez serve as emergency long relievers.  And I’m still scared about relying too much on Cease, so I’d have Rodon serve as an opener for him.

Rotation:

1. Giolito
2. Keuchel*
3. Dunning
4. Rodon* + Cease

Bullpen:

• 9th: Colome
• 8th: Bummer*
• 8th: Marshall
• 7th: Crotchet*
• 7th: Foster
• 6th: Fry*
• 6th: Heuer
• 5th: Detwiler*
• 5th: Cordero
• LR: Gonzalez*
• LR: Lopez

Edited September 19, 2020 by Chicago White Sox

[ptatc]

35 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Here’s what I’d like to see for our postseason pitching staff after the Crotchet call-up and seeing the how the playoff schedule actually works.  I still don’t think we’ll go with a five man rotation, so that means Lopez & Gonzalez serve as emergency long relievers.  And I’m still scared about relying too much on Cease, so I’d have Rodon serve as an opener for him.

Rotation:

1. Giolito
2. Keuchel*
3. Dunning
4. Rodon* + Cease

Bullpen:

• 9th: Colome
• 8th: Bummer*
• 8th: Marshall
• 7th: Crotchet*
• 7th: Foster
• 6th: Fry*
• 6th: Heuer
• 5th: Detwiler*
• 5th: Cordero
• LR: Gonzalez*
• LR: Lopez

They will need a 5th starter if they make it to the ALCS. They will really put themselves at a disadvantage for the WS due to the limited time off if they dont use a 5th.

Who will that be? I was leaning Stiever until yesterday as he didnt show the control. I guess the advantage goes to Lopez. 

Edited September 19, 2020 by ptatc

[Chicago White Sox]

19 minutes ago, ptatc said:

They will need a 5th starter if they make it to the ALCS. They will really put themselves at a disadvantage for the WS due to the limited time off if they dont use a 5th.

Who will that be? I was leaning Stiever until yesterday as he didnt show the control. I guess the advantage goes to Lopez. 

There are two days off between the ALCS and the World Series and one after the first two games of the World Series.  If you can retain your normal rotation order heading into the ALCS, I’m starting Lucas in game 5, Dallas in game 6, & Dunning in game 7 if needed.  Lucas & Dallas would then be able to start games 1 & 2 on normal rest, while Dunning would actually start on an extra day of rest.  A 5th starter isn’t needed in the World Series given the off days.  The key is avoiding a game 5 in the ALDS.  If that can be done, we can avoid using a 5th starter and force our top three starters to only pitch on short rest at max once.

[Dominikk85]

That pitching staff is super thin, the no off days hurt the sox here. If Hahn would have known he likely would have made a trade. 

I said it in the game thread already, imo it was a mistake to do nothing. No need to mortgage the future and they definitely should keep their top 6 prospects but why not get a good reliever or a rental package for two 40fv prospects who likely get rule 5ed or become bench players at best? 

They sox will get more chances but sometimes year 1 of the window is the year you go all the way.

 

RR sometimes leaves guys out who are in trouble and then get shellacked throwing away games but really the staff is so thin that he sometimes needs to keep struggling guys in and just pray that hit a liner at somebody. There just is not much depth albeit the top guys were great.

Edited September 19, 2020 by Dominikk85

[ptatc]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There are two days off between the ALCS and the World Series and one after the first two games of the World Series.  If you can retain your normal rotation order heading into the ALCS, I’m starting Lucas in game 5, Dallas in game 6, & Dunning in game 7 if needed.  Lucas & Dallas would then be able to start games 1 & 2 on normal rest, while Dunning would actually start on an extra day of rest.  A 5th starter isn’t needed in the World Series given the off days.  The key is avoiding a game 5 in the ALDS.  If that can be done, we can avoid using a 5th starter and force our top three starters to only pitch on short rest at max once.

Are you not starting Giolito in game 1 of the ALCS? If he starts game 1 and game 5 that's only 3 days rest. No way they do that.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Are you not starting Giolito in game 1 of the ALCS? If he starts game 1 and game 5 that's only 3 days rest. No way they do that.

You don’t think starters go on short rest in the post season ever?

[ptatc]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You don’t think starters go on short rest in the post season ever?

They do in crucial games. I dont think they would plan it out for a game 5 of a 7 game series. If they are down 3-1 maybe.

[Tnetennba]

9/29 - WC - Game 1 - Giolito
9/30 - WC - Game 2 - Keuchel
10/1 - WC - Game 3* - Dunning
10/2 - off
10/3 - off
10/4 - off
10/5 - DS - Game 1 - Giolito
10/6 - DS - Game 2 - Keuchel
10/7 - DS - Game 3 - Dunning
10/8 - DS - Game 4* - Cease
10/9 - DS - Game 5* - Lopez or Giolito on short rest
10/10 - off
10/11 - CS - Game 1 - Giolito
10/12 - CS - Game 2 - Keuchel
10/13 - CS - Game 3 - Dunning
10/14 - CS - Game 4 - Cease
10/15 - CS - Game 5* - Giolito*(ShortRest)
10/16 - CS - Game 6* - Keuchel*(ShortRest)
10/17 - CS - Game 7*  - Dunning*(ShortRest)
10/18 - off
10/19 - off
10/20 - WS - Game 1 - Giolito
10/21 - WS - Game 2 - Keuchel
10/22 - off
10/23 - WS - Game 3 - Dunning
10/24 - WS - Game 4 - Cease or Giolito on short rest
10/25 - WS - Game 5* - Giolito 
10/26 - off
10/27 - WS - Game 6*- Keuchel
10/28 - WS - Game 7* - Dunning

Edited September 19, 2020 by SouthWallace

[Tnetennba]

ALCS with no off days gets trickier.  Their top 3 might have to go on short rest.  Try to keep the Cease and Lopez starts to a minimum.  If Rodon is magically available he factors in somewhere possibly.

[wegner]

Any chance we would see Foster as an opener in the playoffs?

[flavum]

1 minute ago, wegner said:

Any chance we would see Foster as an opener in the playoffs?

If it’s a possibility, then I hope they try it out next weekend against the Cubs. Get him the feel for starting a game.