NFL Thread 2020-2021

[Jack Parkman]

14 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Part of it is defense is really hard in this no crowd world (just think what that means in regards bears offense). 
 

I just don’t think Pagano runs much any sort of a real advantageous scheme and don’t like his very conservative approach. It would make sense for a defense that has minimum talent - not this unit. 

Pagano has been handed the keys to a Ferrari and is driving it like a Smart Car. 

[southsider2k5]

[The Beast]

On 12/5/2020 at 5:12 PM, Two-Gun Pete said:

This is difficult to assess in the year of COVID, and a declining salary cap. Some teams that would have had more salary caps space may have been more aggressive in the trade market, if the cap was to stay the same or increase. We've never ever seen an offseason that will be like this one coming up. What's more, there are still 5 games to be played, and players can either set themselves up in the shop window, or totally fuck up their trade values.

For example, Quinn has sucked a horse's ass all year long. BUT, if he catches fire, and piles up the sacks down the stretch, he could be more valuable. Likewise, Mack might be a ~top 10 or so overall player in the NFL. If he gets hurt, or sucks down the stretch, forget about getting anything in value in trade. But if he lights up the league down the stretch, he could be worth a lot more.

 

On balance, it depends on what happens to the team down the stretch. I certainly don't think that Nagy or Pace are the answer. I think Pace is, at best, a pro scouting director; he's out of his league as an executive, because he makes bad decisions. I think Nagy is, at best, an OC; he's similarly overmatched as a HEAD coach. But, if they make the playoffs, they should stick around.

But, even if the BEARS make the playoffs, consider this link.  If Spotrac is correct, you're looking at the BEARS currently being @ ~$179MM in salary responsibilities for 2021; Hub Arkush thinks the salary cap is going down to ~$175MM. So, just to get down there I think you're looking at

1. Leno and Massie being cut, saving $10MM or so,

2. Graham being cut, saving $3.9MM or so,

3. Either trading Hicks, or cutting him, saving $8-9MM

THEN, the BEARS will have to find a way to sign Robinson [Market Value of $18MM], and at a minimum, a punter, a backup QB, a return man to replace Patterson, a DB or two, and an O-Lineman or two.

 

And that's part of why I prefer a fire sale NOW, because this offseason will be ugly for the BEARS, no matter what happens.

I appreciate this post, thanks for making the points that you did. The next GM has a lot of work to do to get under the cap and field a competitive team.

Leno, Massie and Graham have to go. If they have to let Hicks go they really need a replacement to make up for the loss of production and intangibles.

I’m also wondering how you rid yourself of Foles and if they cut him, how much they would have to pay him in dead money. Fuller, Skrine, Trevathan and Quinn would be on my chop block list (if this were Madden) but realistically all of them don’t have deals that are movable. Losing Patterson is one thing but losing Robinson is going to suck.

I couldn’t get over the approach that Pagano took in the second half today with giving up the yardage it did with soft coverage. That 96 yard drive sucked. Giving up that amount of points sucked. Nagy’s call and Trubisky’s fumble sucked. Robinson having a mental mistake and Montgomery not getting the first down sucked.

I get more upset with Pace even if I thought Nagy was a bone head today. Since NFL coaching contracts are guaranteed (I think) and the pandemic is going to hurt teams financially, I can’t see them making a move in season and I think it is more likely the Bears move on from Pace instead of Nagy and the new GM will decide Nagy’s fate. But if they fire Nagy and Pace, I hope they move on from Phillips if it were possible. I just don’t think Bears ownership can get out of their own way and will screw up whatever decision they decide to do. It would be great if they could go with John Dorsey and have him draft like he did in Cleveland and Kansas City, but that might be a pipe dream.

[Dick Allen]

11 hours ago, champagne030 said:

31/140 might be "running the shit out of the ball" for Nagy.  The offense scored 7 points in the 2nd half and gave away the game winning 7 points at the end of the game.  The defense is/was way overrated and the offensive play calling was garbage.  Whoever called plays, played to not lose and it still blew up in their face.  They took a 10 point lead and then proceeded to run 3 series, that totaled 9 plays and 0 yards, plus the game losing turnover.  It was a complete failure from both sides of the ball.......

They play calling at the end is what killed the Bears. On Mitch’s fumble, Trubisky is not a good pocket passer. If you had to throw there, and I don’t know why you just don’t run, why not call a play with him rolling out, something he is better at? He has never been very good in the pocket. The linemen suck and Mitch has never been good at feeling a rush. 
I think the defensive problems have a lot to do with a Goldman not playing, and I think Mack is playing hurt. He is on the injury report every week.

[bmags]

Here are some miracles that need to happen:

- bears need to lose out (this is a miracle just because they always win bs games that don’t matter)

- WAS needs to win NFC E

- Hurts needs to keep looking promising

- Falcons need to keep winning

- San Fran needs to win

- Panthers need to win

2 QBs are going 1-2.

This puts bears in probable range for the best of the rest QBs if they like them (Whether QB3 is Wilson, Fields, or by some chance the small school guy or Jones)

 

[NWINFan]

14 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Did you notice how soft the coverage was? That's on Pagano. 

It was ye olde prevent defense prevents you from winning. 

Pagano or not, prevent defense or not, this type of drive should not have happened. Even if the Lions still scored, time should have been running out making the later stupid play call not happen.

[Two-Gun Pete]

On 12/6/2020 at 10:15 PM, The Beast said:

The next GM has a lot of work to do to get under the cap and field a competitive team.

Leno, Massie and Graham have to go. If they have to let Hicks go they really need a replacement to make up for the loss of production and intangibles.

I’m also wondering how you rid yourself of Foles and if they cut him, how much they would have to pay him in dead money. Fuller, Skrine, Trevathan and Quinn would be on my chop block list (if this were Madden) but realistically all of them don’t have deals that are movable. Losing Patterson is one thing but losing Robinson is going to suck.

I couldn’t get over the approach that Pagano took in the second half today with giving up the yardage it did with soft coverage. That 96 yard drive sucked. Giving up that amount of points sucked. Nagy’s call and Trubisky’s fumble sucked. Robinson having a mental mistake and Montgomery not getting the first down sucked.

I get more upset with Pace even if I thought Nagy was a bone head today. Since NFL coaching contracts are guaranteed (I think) and the pandemic is going to hurt teams financially, I can’t see them making a move in season and I think it is more likely the Bears move on from Pace instead of Nagy and the new GM will decide Nagy’s fate. 

With respect to the bolded, the next GM was going to have a hard time the second Pace made the cavalcade of errors around the QB position lo those many years ago. But then, he's made blunders at the WR position that he had to re-do, at TE, at LB, and elsewhere. Pace just might be a dandy scouting director, but he's a fooking simpleton who has no business as a chief executive. He's simply too stupid.

 

With respect to the underlined, there's a whole lot of suck that has happened, is about to happen soon, or will happen over the next few months and years. A big part of this is that Pace is a moronic mouthbreather who can't make proper decisions without fucking them up. FFS, he'd fuck up a ham sandwich. One of his fuckups was to hire a guy who just wants to be an unsupervised offensive coordinator as head coach. Nagy has a compelling backstory, and you REALLY, REALLY want to root for him. The players love him, probably because if you're a starter, you're not held to account, and you don't have to bother with preseason or training camp.

But he's not a HEAD coach, in the sense that a HC is the overseer of everything on-field within an organization. He never was, and he likely never will be. That said, I think you're right, in that the BEARS will [once again] do it piecemeal, and fire ONLY Pace, while retaining a lame-duck Nagy. In the process, the rebuild will waste a year while so-called "evaluating" a guy who's in over his head in Nagy. If they want to have a chance to win while Virginia McCaskey is still with us, they really, really need to do "the red wedding" on the front office, and then hold a firesale.

 

Fortunately, there's a real TANK WIN lined up this Sunday. I think the Texans are better than their record, in that their 8 losses are all against winning teams. I think this is a real chance for the BEARS to make a real move up from the 13th pick. TANKATHON!!!!

[The Beast]

20 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

With respect to the bolded, the next GM was going to have a hard time the second Pace made the cavalcade of errors around the QB position lo those many years ago. But then, he's made blunders at the WR position that he had to re-do, at TE, at LB, and elsewhere. Pace just might be a dandy scouting director, but he's a fooking simpleton who has no business as a chief executive. He's simply too stupid.

 

With respect to the underlined, there's a whole lot of suck that has happened, is about to happen soon, or will happen over the next few months and years. A big part of this is that Pace is a moronic mouthbreather who can't make proper decisions without fucking them up. FFS, he'd fuck up a ham sandwich. One of his fuckups was to hire a guy who just wants to be an unsupervised offensive coordinator as head coach. Nagy has a compelling backstory, and you REALLY, REALLY want to root for him. The players love him, probably because if you're a starter, you're not held to account, and you don't have to bother with preseason or training camp.

But he's not a HEAD coach, in the sense that a HC is the overseer of everything on-field within an organization. He never was, and he likely never will be. That said, I think you're right, in that the BEARS will [once again] do it piecemeal, and fire ONLY Pace, while retaining a lame-duck Nagy. In the process, the rebuild will waste a year while so-called "evaluating" a guy who's in over his head in Nagy. If they want to have a chance to win while Virginia McCaskey is still with us, they really, really need to do "the red wedding" on the front office, and then hold a firesale.

 

Fortunately, there's a real TANK WIN lined up this Sunday. I think the Texans are better than their record, in that their 8 losses are all against winning teams. I think this is a real chance for the BEARS to make a real move up from the 13th pick. TANKATHON!!!!

Who would you hire if you were George and Virginia for coach, GM and team president?

[nitetrain8601]

36 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

With respect to the bolded, the next GM was going to have a hard time the second Pace made the cavalcade of errors around the QB position lo those many years ago. But then, he's made blunders at the WR position that he had to re-do, at TE, at LB, and elsewhere. Pace just might be a dandy scouting director, but he's a fooking simpleton who has no business as a chief executive. He's simply too stupid.

 

With respect to the underlined, there's a whole lot of suck that has happened, is about to happen soon, or will happen over the next few months and years. A big part of this is that Pace is a moronic mouthbreather who can't make proper decisions without fucking them up. FFS, he'd fuck up a ham sandwich. One of his fuckups was to hire a guy who just wants to be an unsupervised offensive coordinator as head coach. Nagy has a compelling backstory, and you REALLY, REALLY want to root for him. The players love him, probably because if you're a starter, you're not held to account, and you don't have to bother with preseason or training camp.

But he's not a HEAD coach, in the sense that a HC is the overseer of everything on-field within an organization. He never was, and he likely never will be. That said, I think you're right, in that the BEARS will [once again] do it piecemeal, and fire ONLY Pace, while retaining a lame-duck Nagy. In the process, the rebuild will waste a year while so-called "evaluating" a guy who's in over his head in Nagy. If they want to have a chance to win while Virginia McCaskey is still with us, they really, really need to do "the red wedding" on the front office, and then hold a firesale.

 

Fortunately, there's a real TANK WIN lined up this Sunday. I think the Texans are better than their record, in that their 8 losses are all against winning teams. I think this is a real chance for the BEARS to make a real move up from the 13th pick. TANKATHON!!!!

I love this post. 

 

Bears won't fire Nagy in season. It's not their MO. And whether we care or not, head coaches around the league care about that. In addition, I think the Bears have a huge job ahead of them, it doesn't matter if you fire Nagy next year or not. They are going to suck hard. So from a purely financial decision, might as well as hold onto Nagy and not pay two coaches. Plus, there isn't anyone compelling out there this year IMO. 

Next GM should look to remediate the cap situation right away and start building an offensive line. No matter what, you will need a good line regardless of system. Sadly, I think the Bears will have to blow up their defense pennies on the dollar because Pagano has tanked the value of damn near everyone but Hicks and their CBs.

[Jack Parkman]

19 hours ago, nitetrain8601 said:

I love this post. 

 

Bears won't fire Nagy in season. It's not their MO. And whether we care or not, head coaches around the league care about that. In addition, I think the Bears have a huge job ahead of them, it doesn't matter if you fire Nagy next year or not. They are going to suck hard. So from a purely financial decision, might as well as hold onto Nagy and not pay two coaches. Plus, there isn't anyone compelling out there this year IMO. 

Next GM should look to remediate the cap situation right away and start building an offensive line. No matter what, you will need a good line regardless of system. Sadly, I think the Bears will have to blow up their defense pennies on the dollar because Pagano has tanked the value of damn near everyone but Hicks and their CBs.

As much as it sucks, Fuller and Hicks should not be retained and they should be traded this spring. Get value while you still can. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

21 hours ago, The Beast said:

Who would you hire if you were George and Virginia for coach, GM and team president?

I'd go with this guy: Rick Smith 

Hes had a good track record as BOTH a scout, and executive. You can read about why he stepped down, which is/was a tragedy.

For coach, I'd let Smith pick him. Whoever he picks, here's hoping he would pick a competent one.

21 hours ago, nitetrain8601 said:

I love this post. 

 

Bears won't fire Nagy in season. It's not their MO. And whether we care or not, head coaches around the league care about that. In addition, I think the Bears have a huge job ahead of them, it doesn't matter if you fire Nagy next year or not. They are going to suck hard. So from a purely financial decision, might as well as hold onto Nagy and not pay two coaches. Plus, there isn't anyone compelling out there this year IMO. 

Next GM should look to remediate the cap situation right away and start building an offensive line. No matter what, you will need a good line regardless of system. Sadly, I think the Bears will have to blow up their defense pennies on the dollar because Pagano has tanked the value of damn near everyone but Hicks and their CBs.

Agreed with all of the bolded, though based on general fucking principle, Nagy should be launched.

Any fire sale will be underwhelming in terms of the potential return. Part of it is/was the performances and coaching. But part of it will be the decrease in the cap caused by COVID.

A fire sale would just be for the purpose of trying to hit the reset button. The defense, when healthy, could be championship caliber. However, the offense and the coaching are collectively replacement level.

The problem with such a yawning mismatch is that the defense will get old/injured before the offense improves enough to be cromulent. So, trying to patch this team together (without cap space and without multiple high draft picks) is a fools errand. (Minnesota went through this same experience over the past few years as well, and look where they are now.)

This draft, I'd be ok if they worked on the O-Line right away, just as you suggested.

That said, as a lifelong Chicago sports fan, I'm accustomed to shitty teams and rebuilds. I think I can ignore several futile seasons, thanks to our many decades of experience in having shitty teams. So, why not go full-out tank, & restart the process?

The next tank victory is the next game on this schedule.

Edited December 10, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[The Beast]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I'd go with this guy: Rick Smith 

Hes had a good track record as BOTH a scout, and executive. You can read about why he stepped down, which is/was a tragedy.

For coach, I'd let Smith pick him. Whoever he picks, here's hoping he would pick a competent one.

Agreed with all of the bolded, though based on general fucking principle, Nagy should be launched.

Any fire sale will be underwhelming in terms of the potential return. Part of it is/was the performances and coaching. But part of it will be the decrease in the cap caused by COVID.

A fire sale would just be for the purpose of trying to hit the reset button. The defense, when healthy, could be championship caliber. However, the offense and the coaching are collectively replacement level.

The problem with such a yawning mismatch is that the defense will get old/injured before the offense improves enough to be cromulent. So, trying to patch this team together (without cap space and without multiple high draft picks) is a fools errand.

This draft, I'd be ok if they worked on the O-Line right away, just as you suggested.

That said, as a lifelong Chicago sports fan, I'm accustomed to shitty teams and rebuilds. I think I can ignore several futile seasons, thanks to our many decades of experience in having shitty teams. So, why not go full-out tank, & restart the process?

The next tank victory is the next game on this schedule.

I would want to see what John Dorsey does as president and have him hire the GM who in turn decides what to do with Nagy and hires a coach. I don’t think the Bears need someone with fire as coach, there’s too many meatball fans in Chicago who have Ditka in mind and think that would work. One idiot called in the other day and wanted them to hire someone who worked within or played for the organization before since “he would know what being a Bear is all about.”

Smith sounds fantastic, hopefully he gets hired by the Falcons.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Here's a question I have.  Lets assume the Bears end up with a middle (12-18) draft pick: Are they better off taking the 4th or 5th best QB in this draft or trading for Sam Darnold?

[Chicago White Sox]

38 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Here's a question I have.  Lets assume the Bears end up with a middle (12-18) draft pick: Are they better off taking the 4th or 5th best QB in this draft or trading for Sam Darnold?

With this class I’d go with the rookie.  Darnold is a somewhat interesting reclamation project given the Gase factor, but even if you fix him he’ll quickly become expensive.

[Two-Gun Pete]

51 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Here's a question I have.  Lets assume the Bears end up with a middle (12-18) draft pick: Are they better off taking the 4th or 5th best QB in this draft or trading for Sam Darnold?

How good are the OL prospects this year? Is there an Anthony Munoz-type or Jimbo Covert-type or Olin Kreutz-type on offer?

[I'm asking because I give zero fucks about freeloading NCAA sports, and I know little about who is in this draft.]

 

Also, under your query, who will be making the draft pick, a competent executive, or the moron who signed Mike Glennon for $19MM or so?

Edited December 12, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[Two-Gun Pete]

On 12/9/2020 at 7:17 PM, The Beast said:

I would want to see what John Dorsey does as president and have him hire the GM who in turn decides what to do with Nagy and hires a coach. I don’t think the Bears need someone with fire as coach, there’s too many meatball fans in Chicago who have Ditka in mind and think that would work. One idiot called in the other day and wanted them to hire someone who worked within or played for the organization before since “he would know what being a Bear is all about.”

Smith sounds fantastic, hopefully he gets hired by the Falcons.

I don't have an opinion either way about Dorsey, and I'm not meaning to impugn you or your opinion in any way. But, the first link I saw about him was this:

SI Story about Dorsey

 

[nitetrain8601]

2 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Here's a question I have.  Lets assume the Bears end up with a middle (12-18) draft pick: Are they better off taking the 4th or 5th best QB in this draft or trading for Sam Darnold?

I think this QB class is pretty overrated. I wouldn't go after Darnold either to be honest. I never liked him dating back to USC. I felt he was vastly overrated as he wouldn't light the world against good competition. He's sort of like Rosen. 

 

With that stated, I think you draft a QB and sign someone in the offseason for cheap like Winston.

 

As far as Rick Smith - he's like the anti-Pace. He's great at top end draft picks, not so good in middle rounds. If you can combine him and Pace, you would have a great combo.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

13 minutes ago, nitetrain8601 said:

I think this QB class is pretty overrated. I wouldn't go after Darnold either to be honest. I never liked him dating back to USC. I felt he was vastly overrated as he wouldn't light the world against good competition. He's sort of like Rosen. 

 

With that stated, I think you draft a QB and sign someone in the offseason for cheap like Winston.

 

As far as Rick Smith - he's like the anti-Pace. He's great at top end draft picks, not so good in middle rounds. If you can combine him and Pace, you would have a great combo.

Darnold would be able to step in and play right away while the defense is (supposedly) still good.  Lance or Trask would probably take a year or two to get rolling.  

[The Beast]

1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I don't have an opinion either way about Dorsey, and I'm not meaning to impugn you or your opinion in any way. But, the first link I saw about him was this:

SI Story about Dorsey

 

Bummer, I was looking at his draft results. Maybe Smith would be a better choice.

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, nitetrain8601 said:

I think this QB class is pretty overrated. I wouldn't go after Darnold either to be honest. I never liked him dating back to USC. I felt he was vastly overrated as he wouldn't light the world against good competition. He's sort of like Rosen. 

 

With that stated, I think you draft a QB and sign someone in the offseason for cheap like Winston.

 

As far as Rick Smith - he's like the anti-Pace. He's great at top end draft picks, not so good in middle rounds. If you can combine him and Pace, you would have a great combo.

How is Rick Smith on executive decisionmaking? Does he shit his pants, and give away picks like a $10 whore gives it up, or does he properly value assets? Also, does he constantly have to re-do acquisitions, because he keeps fucking them up, like Tre Burton/Adam Shaheen/Jimmy Graham/Cole Kmet all poured into one position, with little-to-no positive outcome?

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Darnold would be able to step in and play right away while the defense is (supposedly) still good.  Lance or Trask would probably take a year or two to get rolling.  

I feel like the ~2015-2018 Minnesota Vikings tried to do the same thing. They had a great defense, but a shitty offense, with a mediocre QB trying to lead it. They kept trying to patch it together with this QB signing or that QB signing.  

Ultimately, the defense got old and injured, and the myriad of QB signings and fixes on the offense never really panned out. And while they made an NFC Championship game, they were never able to get to the promised land. [Does any of this sound familiar, with respect to the BEARS?]

 

I agree with signing some veteran mediocrity to keep the QB position warm for a season or two. Or hell, let Foles get his brains beaten in while they try to assemble an O-Line and some skill position players. But, I think this team should really try to bottom out, tank for a year or two, and get a top QB prospect as close to #1 overall in the draft as is reasonably possible. 

Edited December 12, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[Dick Allen]

Mitch is having a great game.

[SoxAce]

The Bears put up 30 points? In one half?!?!?!

[Dick Allen]

Maybe the best half Mitch has ever played. 

[southsider2k5]

Mitch is much better in up tempo, don't know why it took so long to try it outside of the 2 minute drill, but nice to see it.