NFL Thread 2020-2021

[bmags]

16 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

One thing about Watson - if you are Houston - despite the Jets and Dolphins having better chips - do you want to trade Deshaun within the conference or do you feel better sending him to the NFC.  Would be great if Houston's ownership group had a view of keeping Deshaun out of their conference as that a number of the best suitors off the table (Colts, Jets, Dolphins).  

I saw somewhere, might have been ESPN - but basically someone suggested 3 way deal with Bears getting Tua for the 20th pick plus some future picks.  While I don't love Tua - I wouldn't hate it either. If you are right - you quickly have shifted the franchise and if you are wrong - you take another swing in a year.  In this case - you really haven't mortgaged the future (which is what it will take to get Deshaun and while I've always felt Deshaun is a bit on the over-rated side...I'd still be open to just doing it to get a young QB in his prime...even though you know they'll be in asset/cap trouble for at least 2 years).  

I feel like this is something that owners absolutely care about, but if I'm forced to trade watson, I feel like your #1, #2, and #3 obligation is get as much back possible to get a winning team together. 

[Stinky Stanky]

On 1/26/2021 at 8:16 AM, NWINFan said:

You're right, but the Franks Thomas supplement ads are worse.

Man pills.  Embarrassing.

On 1/25/2021 at 5:04 PM, pcq said:

Or this. Kick an FG and you still need a TD. Lose the ball on downs and you still need a TD. 

Fail on 4th down and you turn the ball over on the 8 yard line or closer.  Kick off after a FG and the Bucs get it at the 20 or 25.  This should haunt Coach Mc forever.

[Jack Parkman]

The only way the Bears are getting Watson is if he can use his NTC to force a trade here. Even then, why would he want to come here? 

In a truly open competition for his services, the Bears have nothing comparable to offer. 

[bmags]

I kinda want some poster to take the mantle of believing bears will get watson, making packages, etc.

I want to read about it and dream on it without getting made fun of mercilessly.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

I kinda want some poster to take the mantle of believing bears will get watson, making packages, etc.

I want to read about it and dream on it without getting made fun of mercilessly.

If someone could figure out the cap details, I’d listen.

[bmags]

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If someone could figure out the cap details, I’d listen.

I vote @Chisoxfn

We have a real need for content here, you must pick up the mantle.

[Kyyle23]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

I kinda want some poster to take the mantle of believing bears will get watson, making packages, etc.

I want to read about it and dream on it without getting made fun of mercilessly.

Sir have you heard of twitter, on the internet 

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Sir have you heard of twitter, on the internet 

No sorry bears Twitter is the absolute worst

[Kyyle23]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

No sorry bears Twitter is the absolute worst

It will scratch that itch you have.  Zero guilt 

[CentralChamps21]

The Texans just finished a 4-12 season and got the living shit beat out of them by, among other teams, the Bears.

If the Bears are going to give up enough players and draft picks to land Watson, they're going to have a team just as lousy as the one Watson is leaving.

I don't see any scenario by which the Bears pick up a franchise QB without giving up enough assets to ensure that franchise QB doesn't have a terrible team surrounding him until he hits free agency.

The Bears need to acquire all the good OL, DL and DB they can get, and anybody not in those position groups should be traded if they can bring back talent in those position groups and/or valuable draft picks. Build the core of the team for a couple years, THEN go after your franchise QB. Get Fitzpatrick or someone comparable to hold down the fort for a couple years.

[bmags]

well thats not what I was looking for.

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

The Texans just finished a 4-12 season and got the living shit beat out of them by, among other teams, the Bears.

If the Bears are going to give up enough players and draft picks to land Watson, they're going to have a team just as lousy as the one Watson is leaving.

I don't see any scenario by which the Bears pick up a franchise QB without giving up enough assets to ensure that franchise QB doesn't have a terrible team surrounding him until he hits free agency.

The Bears need to acquire all the good OL, DL and DB they can get, and anybody not in those position groups should be traded if they can bring back talent in those position groups and/or valuable draft picks. Build the core of the team for a couple years, THEN go after your franchise QB. Get Fitzpatrick or someone comparable to hold down the fort for a couple years.

There is a scenario that they can pick up a franchise QB without giving up a ton of assets......they have to draft one. 

I don't trust Ryan Pace to get that done. If Kyle Trask is sitting there somewhere from pick 28-32 I'd jump up and grab him though. You want that 5th year option for a QB. 

I'd rather they they pick an OL at 20 and jump into the end of the 1st if Trask or Mac Jones are sitting there. The other option is to trade down 5-7 spots if you think your QB will be there. 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[CentralChamps21]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

There is a scenario that they can pick up a franchise QB without giving up a ton of assets......they have to draft one. 

I don't trust Ryan Pace to get that done. If Kyle Trask is sitting there somewhere from pick 28-32 I'd jump up and grab him though. You want that 5th year option for a QB. 

I'd rather they they pick an OL at 20 and jump into the end of the 1st if Trask or Mac Jones are sitting there. The other option is to trade down 5-7 spots if you think your QB will be there. 

Trading up to get a QB is still giving up assets--other draft picks. The bears can't afford to not take the best OL available at 20. Now if there are several closely grouped OL available when that 20th pick comes up, then yes, trade down from 20, get your OL and then use what you get from that trade to go back up to get Trask or Jones if still available, but that's a very specific scenario that needs a lot of dominoes to fall just right to be available.

[Jack Parkman]

9 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

Trading up to get a QB is still giving up assets--other draft picks. The bears can't afford to not take the best OL available at 20. Now if there are several closely grouped OL available when that 20th pick comes up, then yes, trade down from 20, get your OL and then use what you get from that trade to go back up to get Trask or Jones if still available, but that's a very specific scenario that needs a lot of dominoes to fall just right to be available.

I agree with this sentiment. 

[Chisoxfn]

3 hours ago, bmags said:

I vote @Chisoxfn

We have a real need for content here, you must pick up the mantle.

So I'll bite...even though I shouldn't. Have to give a presentation to like 100 people in a few hours - and just as much of a presentation as it is an open grilling session (good grilling - hopefully - but one where you got to be agile and nimble and know your "sh*t:", but this is a nice small distraction, hopefully to help clear my head.

I'll caveat that I agree with whichever posted said trading the farm for Watson is going to make building a good team around him tough - at least in the near term - which is part of why my trading only works if the Bears can accumulate some extra assets this year so that really you are making a huge investment in Watson today - recognizing the step to greatness isn't going to happen overnight (because from a cap/asset perspective - they will have issues) - but having that true franchise QB is where you have to start.  If Bears unequivocally believe Watson is that guy - than I think almost any price is worth it - because it isn't just about the next 1-2 years - it is about the 5-8 year window you have with an elite QB.    

I will also note - I don't see the Bears getting Watson by having the absolute strongest package - so at some point - Watson is going to have to tip the scales a bit in the Bears favor for this to work.  The Bears will clearly not be the best team looking to acquire Watson - so for this to work - Bears are going to have to convince Watson (from ownership to GM to coach) that he is their guy and that they are going to build this entire franchise around him and make him a legend in Chicago and around the NFL. Endorsement deals - Love of the City - etc.  But realistically - they are going to have to sell them on their commitment to do that over time - cause there is almost no scenario where I see Watson arriving and the Bears just being immediate superbowl contenders - unless instead of what I do below - the Bears sell like the next 4 years worth of draft picks - which I do not condone.  

Step 1: Move Mack - Get maximum value and my hope is you are talking at least 2 2nd round picks (ideally you get a 1st and a 2nd - even if one of those is a future pick - I don't care).  And for those that say you can't get that - I don't believe it. All advance metrics still say Mack is a well above average pass-rusher and while his production dipped with the Bears - he's still widely viewed as an elite player and pass rushers (next to QB's) still have high value.  This is a move that is necessary - as Bears need to find other assets - plus I think they need to move Mack for increased flexibility in terms of future cap usage (think 2022 & beyond).  

Note: I do this in almost any scenario if I were the Bears front office - because I think they need to find a way to develop their offense and I think Mack gets in the way. Although I would caveat this is something they could always do in another year (presuming Mack doesn't suffer a serious injury) and potentially under a new front office (depending on how 2021 goes).  

Step 2: Franchise and trade Allen Robinson - Get whatever you can for him - maybe it is a 2nd round pick - maybe it is a future 2nd round pick or 3rd round pick - but you can not fit Robinson's contract on the Bears.  As much as I like Robinson - with the holes this club has - you can't afford paying Allen Robinson $20M per year; 

Note: I do not know whether the Bears can do what I outline above and still be in a cap position to fit Watson's contract under the books - but I'll leave that to another post who can verify or not.  

Step 3: Trade your 1st round pick, your 2nd round pick, the picks you acquired for Mack (1st round & future 2nd round) and next years 1st round and 2nd round pick - for Deshaun Watson.  

That would be 3 1st round picks (2 in this years draft; 1 next year) & 3 2nd round picks (1 this year & 2 next year (1 being the Bears & 1 being a pick you got from Robinson or the other Mack pick).    I personally don't think that deal alone is going to be as good as what a team like Miami could offer - and maybe it isn't enough or I'm unrealistic in what I can get for Mack/Robinson (its possible).  

If that is the case - an alternative would be packaging Roquan Smith in the deal - although my preference would be to keep him as a young defender.  

In this scenario - Bears still potentially have a 2nd round pick and than the rest of their draft after 1st round and only essentially mortgaged next years 1st / 2nd rounders as well.  

None of the above is probably realistic - but hey - its a starting point.  The thing I don't know is how much cap space / would they have cap space to do this? 

 

[Chisoxfn]

By the way - I still think the most likely scenario is the Bears drafting a young pick and grabbing a veteran FA QB.  And while I think a lot of people assume Lions won't move Stafford to the Bears - I have a feeling the Lions are going to do Stafford a solid and move him wherever he wants to go.  

Mac Jones has apparently been crushing it at the senior bowl (although I think he rolled his ankle and won't play).  He had massive talent around him - but made a lot of NFL type throws and seems to be a very good decision maker and accurate with the ball. Reality is in the new NFL - it is less about the elite arm strength and more about the mental game, accuracy and your ability to anticipate reads.  And those last pieces can be so hard to evaluate in the college game when so many of the top qb's play on teams where they don't really have to throw the ball into a lot of tight windows and anticipate because they can wait until there guy is wide open.  

If I'm Pace/Nagy and want to save my job - as long as I find a young QB who shows promise - that alone probably buys you time (regardless of record - if the young QB shows hope/promise - that is all I think McCaskey will care about).  For those reasons - the last thing I see Pace/Nagy doing is not drafting a young QB (or acquiring someone like Tua/D'Arnold); They might go after a Winston or something - but not alone - because if they get Winston and he stinks - they are dead. 

To me it is either a Watson or Stafford - where you are going all in on them. In Stafford's case - you are betting change of scenery and defense bounce back give your team hope (probably unlikely you get the ceiling you expect - but who knows). 

Or you are going all in on getting a young QB of some sort (whether a Tua/D'Arnold or a QB not named Wilson/Fields/Lawrence - but in the Trask/Jones/Lance bucket.  

Note: I don't think Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater types are going to move the needle at all.  Also note - Matt Stafford is only 32 - kind of crazy when you think about it.  

[bmags]

17 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

So I'll bite...even though I shouldn't. Have to give a presentation to like 100 people in a few hours - and just as much of a presentation as it is an open grilling session (good grilling - hopefully - but one where you got to be agile and nimble and know your "sh*t:", but this is a nice small distraction, hopefully to help clear my head.

I'll caveat that I agree with whichever posted said trading the farm for Watson is going to make building a good team around him tough - at least in the near term - which is part of why my trading only works if the Bears can accumulate some extra assets this year so that really you are making a huge investment in Watson today - recognizing the step to greatness isn't going to happen overnight (because from a cap/asset perspective - they will have issues) - but having that true franchise QB is where you have to start.  If Bears unequivocally believe Watson is that guy - than I think almost any price is worth it - because it isn't just about the next 1-2 years - it is about the 5-8 year window you have with an elite QB.    

I will also note - I don't see the Bears getting Watson by having the absolute strongest package - so at some point - Watson is going to have to tip the scales a bit in the Bears favor for this to work.  The Bears will clearly not be the best team looking to acquire Watson - so for this to work - Bears are going to have to convince Watson (from ownership to GM to coach) that he is their guy and that they are going to build this entire franchise around him and make him a legend in Chicago and around the NFL. Endorsement deals - Love of the City - etc.  But realistically - they are going to have to sell them on their commitment to do that over time - cause there is almost no scenario where I see Watson arriving and the Bears just being immediate superbowl contenders - unless instead of what I do below - the Bears sell like the next 4 years worth of draft picks - which I do not condone.  

Step 1: Move Mack - Get maximum value and my hope is you are talking at least 2 2nd round picks (ideally you get a 1st and a 2nd - even if one of those is a future pick - I don't care).  And for those that say you can't get that - I don't believe it. All advance metrics still say Mack is a well above average pass-rusher and while his production dipped with the Bears - he's still widely viewed as an elite player and pass rushers (next to QB's) still have high value.  This is a move that is necessary - as Bears need to find other assets - plus I think they need to move Mack for increased flexibility in terms of future cap usage (think 2022 & beyond).  

Note: I do this in almost any scenario if I were the Bears front office - because I think they need to find a way to develop their offense and I think Mack gets in the way. Although I would caveat this is something they could always do in another year (presuming Mack doesn't suffer a serious injury) and potentially under a new front office (depending on how 2021 goes).  

Step 2: Franchise and trade Allen Robinson - Get whatever you can for him - maybe it is a 2nd round pick - maybe it is a future 2nd round pick or 3rd round pick - but you can not fit Robinson's contract on the Bears.  As much as I like Robinson - with the holes this club has - you can't afford paying Allen Robinson $20M per year; e I said - the Bears investment in Watson has to be a long-term play and I'd have to think ownership and front office etc would essentially need to sel

Note: I do not know whether the Bears can do what I outline above and still be in a cap position to fit Watson's contract under the books - but I'll leave that to another post who can verify or not.  

Step 3: Trade your 1st round pick, your 2nd round pick, the picks you acquired for Mack (1st round & future 2nd round) and next years 1st round and 2nd round pick - for Deshaun Watson.  

That would be 3 1st round picks (2 in this years draft; 1 next year) & 3 2nd round picks (1 this year & 2 next year (1 being the Bears & 1 being a pick you got from Robinson or the other Mack pick).    I personally don't think that deal alone is going to be as good as what a team like Miami could offer - and maybe it isn't enough or I'm unrealistic in what I can get for Mack/Robinson (its possible).  

If that is the case - an alternative would be packaging Roquan Smith in the deal - although my preference would be to keep him as a young defender.  

In this scenario - Bears still potentially have a 2nd round pick and than the rest of their draft after 1st round and only essentially mortgaged next years 1st / 2nd rounders as well.  

None of the above is probably realistic - but hey - its a starting point.  The thing I don't know is how much cap space / would they have cap space to do this? 

 

LOL YES

The hardest stuff for me to understand is say we do trade mack. He actually should be tradeable but for the bears this year it saves us like no money. Obviously it opens up money after that. You could either use that to re-sign a roquan, or supplement elsewhere. Typically MILB isn't hardest to find people, so if you get a 1st round pick for him, you do it.

But yeah, I don't think it's possible for bears to offer best deal, mainly because we can't explicitly offer a top 5 pick. So it does require Watson to basically say "trade me here", which may be a bridge too far for houston. They may just say screw it, you are under contract, you already forcing a trade, enjoy NYJ.

[Chisoxfn]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

LOL YES

The hardest stuff for me to understand is say we do trade mack. He actually should be tradeable but for the bears this year it saves us like no money. Obviously it opens up money after that. You could either use that to re-sign a roquan, or supplement elsewhere. Typically MILB isn't hardest to find people, so if you get a 1st round pick for him, you do it.

But yeah, I don't think it's possible for bears to offer best deal, mainly because we can't explicitly offer a top 5 pick. So it does require Watson to basically say "trade me here", which may be a bridge too far for houston. They may just say screw it, you are under contract, you already forcing a trade, enjoy NYJ.

I'm with you on the cap stuff - its kind of why I think it will be pretty hard to have a really good team around Watson his first year here.  And to be honest - even if I move Mack and Robinson - with Watson coming on - that is still a pretty decent team and the defense is still middle of the road.  If Eddie Jackson were to bounce back (not betting on it) and Johnson were able to take a step forward (and before he got hurt - the advanced metrics on Johnson said he was an OUTSTANDING man corner - who struggled in zone - zone is way easier - so he should be able to improve with a regular offseason there and make a next step). A defense with Fuller and Johnson (if both play to their capabilities) will be pretty decent, especially with a Hicks/Goldman duo on the line - enabling them to not get destroyed in the rushing attack.  

Honestly - I think if you did the above - Bears are still potentially a playoff team - but highly unlikely they are a super bowl team.  

[Tony]

Sorry, not sure if this has been covered yet, if it has, my B. 

I was texting with a few buddies yesterday and I fully believe that is the Bears somehow had the assets to acquire Watson (I don't think they do), does Pace hesitate because of the optics of it? At the end the day, Bears fans will be happy getting Watson in the fold no doubt. But think about all the capital Pace would have spent on Mitch, Foles and now Watson all because he screwed up the draft so badly.......it's just a TERRIBLE look and I think it could give him pause, specifically for Watson. 

[bmags]

7 minutes ago, Tony said:

Sorry, not sure if this has been covered yet, if it has, my B. 

I was texting with a few buddies yesterday and I fully believe that is the Bears somehow had the assets to acquire Watson (I don't think they do), does Pace hesitate because of the optics of it? At the end the day, Bears fans will be happy getting Watson in the fold no doubt. But think about all the capital Pace would have spent on Mitch, Foles and now Watson all because he screwed up the draft so badly.......it's just a TERRIBLE look and I think it could give him pause, specifically for Watson. 

I don't think so. I think he knows a worse look would be trotting out Winston.

From what it sounds like, Mac Jones is not a late round 1st anymore. So, best case scenario is likely Bridgewater in FA. They are giving up assets for a QB regardless, his tally is now a 2nd overall pick, 2 thirds, a fourth, and a fifth and $50 mill plus for Nick Foles, Mitch Trubisky, and Mike Glennon.

[Kyyle23]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

Sorry, not sure if this has been covered yet, if it has, my B. 

I was texting with a few buddies yesterday and I fully believe that is the Bears somehow had the assets to acquire Watson (I don't think they do), does Pace hesitate because of the optics of it? At the end the day, Bears fans will be happy getting Watson in the fold no doubt. But think about all the capital Pace would have spent on Mitch, Foles and now Watson all because he screwed up the draft so badly.......it's just a TERRIBLE look and I think it could give him pause, specifically for Watson. 

I think if he were to pass on Watson twice the optics would be infinitely worse than if he were to correct a previous mistake and trade for Watson

[Tony]

1 minute ago, Kyyle23 said:

I think if he were to pass on Watson twice the optics would be infinitely worse than if he were to correct a previous mistake and trade for Watson

I agree, especially if the story somehow leaked the Bears put together the best package but then backed out, but that specific story probably doesn’t leak. 
 

I agree with you that end of day they probably do the deal if they somehow could offer the best package, I guess my point was I wonder if it gives them pause up at Halas Hall thinking “Wait, we’ve given up this much capital to end up with Watson when we could have just drafted him 3rd overall a few years ago?” It just makes Pace look SO bad in my eyes. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

I don't think so. I think he knows a worse look would be trotting out Winston.

From what it sounds like, Mac Jones is not a late round 1st anymore. So, best case scenario is likely Bridgewater in FA. They are giving up assets for a QB regardless, his tally is now a 2nd overall pick, 2 thirds, a fourth, and a fifth and $50 mill plus for Nick Foles, Mitch Trubisky, and Mike Glennon.

Isn’t Bridgewater signed to a multi year deal?

[Kyyle23]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

I agree, especially if the story somehow leaked the Bears put together the best package but then backed out, but that specific story probably doesn’t leak. 
 

I agree with you that end of day they probably do the deal if they somehow could offer the best package, I guess my point was I wonder if it gives them pause up at Halas Hall thinking “Wait, we’ve given up this much capital to end up with Watson when we could have just drafted him 3rd overall a few years ago?” It just makes Pace look SO bad in my eyes. 

Yea the internal optics from McCaskey should look bad.  But, George McCaskey apparently only wears rose colored glasses

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Isn’t Bridgewater signed to a multi year deal?

yeah sorry, I guess assumption is he may be available and panthers may go for new qb.