NFL Thread 2020-2021

[bmags]

I'm going to say something insane that I'm ok getting roasted for endlessly.

I kinda think the bears end up with Watson.

My thought process currently is: my brain has slowly been rotting away during the pandemic so it doesn't function well

- the other teams in the running have more assets to give. But they also are too close to their own QB solution. The Jets, Dolphins, Jaguars are all going to sit with their scouts who will all be having scouted the top QBs in the class, and all could say "should we really give that up or just have our wealth of picks to build around X".

- The Bears do not have an easy solution to finding a QB, and I think will be far less worried about giving up the best total package even if it isn't the best 2020 package.

The biggest concern I have is actually not even the jets/dolphins but actually the 49ers. They have the 12th overall pick, which would help if Houston loves Jones. They have 10 picks this draft, bears, naturally, have just 5 (lol pace still has a job).

 

Damn I've already talked my way out of this. Oh well. But yeah I think bears offer 3 firsts out of the gate.

[Soxbadger]

20 minutes ago, bmags said:

I'm going to say something insane that I'm ok getting roasted for endlessly.

I kinda think the bears end up with Watson.

My thought process currently is: my brain has slowly been rotting away during the pandemic so it doesn't function well

- the other teams in the running have more assets to give. But they also are too close to their own QB solution. The Jets, Dolphins, Jaguars are all going to sit with their scouts who will all be having scouted the top QBs in the class, and all could say "should we really give that up or just have our wealth of picks to build around X".

- The Bears do not have an easy solution to finding a QB, and I think will be far less worried about giving up the best total package even if it isn't the best 2020 package.

The biggest concern I have is actually not even the jets/dolphins but actually the 49ers. They have the 12th overall pick, which would help if Houston loves Jones. They have 10 picks this draft, bears, naturally, have just 5 (lol pace still has a job).

 

Damn I've already talked my way out of this. Oh well. But yeah I think bears offer 3 firsts out of the gate.

 

Watson has a full no trade clause. The Bears have to be one of the bottom teams based on desirability. I cant see any scenario where they could convince him to join, unless they offer to let him pick a new GM and HC. 

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

 

Watson has a full no trade clause. The Bears have to be one of the bottom teams based on desirability. I cant see any scenario where they could convince him to join, unless they offer to let him pick a new GM and HC. 

I'm not swayed by these arguments. But one pro-side for the bears, is that despite George's faults, he really dug in and listened to his players and worked with them positively regarding their activism in the past several years. At least by outside accounts. This at least appears to be part of Watson's unhappiness in Houston.

[Balta1701]

28 minutes ago, bmags said:

I'm going to say something insane that I'm ok getting roasted for endlessly.

I kinda think the bears end up with Watson.

My thought process currently is: my brain has slowly been rotting away during the pandemic so it doesn't function well

- the other teams in the running have more assets to give. But they also are too close to their own QB solution. The Jets, Dolphins, Jaguars are all going to sit with their scouts who will all be having scouted the top QBs in the class, and all could say "should we really give that up or just have our wealth of picks to build around X".

- The Bears do not have an easy solution to finding a QB, and I think will be far less worried about giving up the best total package even if it isn't the best 2020 package.

The biggest concern I have is actually not even the jets/dolphins but actually the 49ers. They have the 12th overall pick, which would help if Houston loves Jones. They have 10 picks this draft, bears, naturally, have just 5 (lol pace still has a job).

 

Damn I've already talked my way out of this. Oh well. But yeah I think bears offer 3 firsts out of the gate.

I still think the biggest impediment is the cap drop. I could see the Bears being all about a Watson deal and going all-in with like their 1-2 picks in the next 3 drafts all given up for him, and it might even work out. 

But I just can't see how a team can start off $10 million over the cap and be able to add a $16.4 million cap hit for Watson...While Also having to worry about Robinson. If they had $10 million in cap space, they could probably maneuver around to make that happen, but to pull of Watson, Robinson, and get under the cap they would have to clear what, $40 million?

[southsider2k5]

19 minutes ago, bmags said:

I'm not swayed by these arguments. But one pro-side for the bears, is that despite George's faults, he really dug in and listened to his players and worked with them positively regarding their activism in the past several years. At least by outside accounts. This at least appears to be part of Watson's unhappiness in Houston.

He also really seemed to feel like he had the right to be involved in the decision making processes for staffing.

[bmags]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

I still think the biggest impediment is the cap drop. I could see the Bears being all about a Watson deal and going all-in with like their 1-2 picks in the next 3 drafts all given up for him, and it might even work out. 

But I just can't see how a team can start off $10 million over the cap and be able to add a $16.4 million cap hit for Watson...While Also having to worry about Robinson. If they had $10 million in cap space, they could probably maneuver around to make that happen, but to pull of Watson, Robinson, and get under the cap they would have to clear what, $40 million?

This part I'm not that worried about. Nfl Cap is too malleable. That said, as noted multiple times, I don't really understand the nfl but this is my kinda working mindset. Hopefully these aren't too bad.

1) If you get Watson, you re-sign Robinson because even if you are paying him more than you wanted, you'll be better off getting a deal that you can work the cap around with.

2) You will likely need to trade Kyle Fuller, to make it easy let's say this is in the Deshaun Watson. This would net you +$11 million

3) Restructure Mack can net you a lot but puts you in a dead money for rest of his deal, but hey, you live with it. Spotrac shows a restructure converting base into signing bonus nets you +$14 mill (+$25 million total)

4) Release Jimmy Graham +$7 million (+$32 million total)

5) Cut Bobby Massie +6.8 mill (38.8 mill)

6) Convert more of Deshaun Watson's deal into signing bonus (+$2 million)

Spotrac says Watson is actually only +$10 mill this year. so this has bears at +$18 million. So if you re-sign Robinson you could get his 2020 cap hit lower hopefully, and have some money to re-sign an Ifedi for RT.

[Soxbadger]

16 minutes ago, bmags said:

I'm not swayed by these arguments. But one pro-side for the bears, is that despite George's faults, he really dug in and listened to his players and worked with them positively regarding their activism in the past several years. At least by outside accounts. This at least appears to be part of Watson's unhappiness in Houston.

Youre not swayed by the fact that Watson isnt going to want to come to a team with a garbage offense? Let alone coming to a team where the GM and HC have no security?

If I was Watson's agent the Bears would be pretty much at the bottom. If they loved my client so much, they could have drafted him over Trubisky.

Not to mention, when the Bears trade away all of their draft capital, they will have garbage to surround Watson with. They probably wont even be able to keep Robinson. Watson would possibly have the worst WRs in the NFL.

[bmags]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

He also really seemed to feel like he had the right to be involved in the decision making processes for staffing.

so George can tell him that he would. But pretty sure no team that acquires him is going to say "IF you agree to come here, I will fire myself so you can hire my replacement".

In chicago he's more likely than any to be able to name a replacement coach!

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

so George can tell him that he would. But pretty sure no team that acquires him is going to say "IF you agree to come here, I will fire myself so you can hire my replacement".

In chicago he's more likely than any to be able to name a replacement coach!

Do the Bears include their players in that process?  I honestly have no idea.

[bmags]

Just now, Soxbadger said:

Youre not swayed by the fact that Watson isnt going to want to come to a team with a garbage offense? Let alone coming to a team where the GM and HC have no security?

If I was Watson's agent the Bears would be pretty much at the bottom. If they loved my client so much, they could have drafted him over Trubisky.

Not to mention, when the Bears trade away all of their draft capital, they will have garbage to surround Watson with. They probably wont even be able to keep Robinson. Watson would possibly have the worst WRs in the NFL.

I mean, all they need to do is franchise Robinson, so of course they can keep him.

And what is this amazing offense he'll go to. The Jets? The Dolphins? The Falcons are the only offense really in the running. If it happens it happens. But you are basically arguing that we should pre-emptively assume Watson would nix the Bears. Until I hear that, as I said, I'm not swayed by any of your arguments that I should stop thinking about how this could work.

 

[bmags]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

Do the Bears include their players in that process?  I honestly have no idea.

Include is doing a lot of work in this sentence. WIth Watson we are talking about empowering him to assist in the coaching pool and decisionmaking options. 

Players are included for feedback and in rare cases interviews, but I don't know of many where they'd choose a coach.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, bmags said:

Include is doing a lot of work in this sentence. WIth Watson we are talking about empowering him to assist in the coaching pool and decisionmaking options. 

Players are included for feedback and in rare cases interviews, but I don't know of many where they'd choose a coach.

This seems to be more like, "hey give my guy a call and interview him at least" which Houston ignored and broke the final straw.

[Soxbadger]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

I mean, all they need to do is franchise Robinson, so of course they can keep him.

And what is this amazing offense he'll go to. The Jets? The Dolphins? The Falcons are the only offense really in the running. If it happens it happens. But you are basically arguing that we should pre-emptively assume Watson would nix the Bears. Until I hear that, as I said, I'm not swayed by any of your arguments that I should stop thinking about how this could work.

 

If Im Watson, there are the Colts, 49ers, Panthers. That isnt even getting into the more exotic ideas.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This seems to be more like, "hey give my guy a call and interview him at least" which Houston ignored and broke the final straw.

I guess I was confused by what you are asking. I don't think there is a team in the league aside from the Houston Texans that could have screwed this up this way. Even the Jets. In part just because their weird situation post-Rick Scott of no real executives around Bill O'Brien then firing Bill O'Brien and having their owner who Watson hates in charge.

I don't know that the Bears have a reputation of being more inclusive in regards to their players in coaching/gm switchovers. I'm sure they don't have a worse reputation.

But if I'm the owner of the texans I'd be firing everyone in the front office if it got so bad that my star 25 year old QB demanded out of his contract. Obviously in this case, the owner is a big part of the problem.

But yeah, not the browns, not the jets, not the bengals, not the bears, that this really happened is unbelievable. And obviously they still may just say "tough" and force him to sit out and lose the money or have a year long resolution like with Carson Palmer.

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

I guess I was confused by what you are asking. I don't think there is a team in the league aside from the Houston Texans that could have screwed this up this way. Even the Jets. In part just because their weird situation post-Rick Scott of no real executives around Bill O'Brien then firing Bill O'Brien and having their owner who Watson hates in charge.

I don't know that the Bears have a reputation of being more inclusive in regards to their players in coaching/gm switchovers. I'm sure they don't have a worse reputation.

But if I'm the owner of the texans I'd be firing everyone in the front office if it got so bad that my star 25 year old QB demanded out of his contract. Obviously in this case, the owner is a big part of the problem.

But yeah, not the browns, not the jets, not the bengals, not the bears, that this really happened is unbelievable. And obviously they still may just say "tough" and force him to sit out and lose the money or have a year long resolution like with Carson Palmer.

But knowing there is already some bad blood there, I would imagine something about the Bears situation would have to actually stand out in the positive and not just be "not as bad as Houston" to be a place that Watson wants to go.  The whole not even talking to him around the draft is a thing for him.  He has already shown that he is willing to raise a stink when he doesn't like things.  I just don't see what about Chicago would sell Watson on wanting to come here.

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

But knowing there is already some bad blood there, I would imagine something about the Bears situation would have to actually stand out in the positive and not just be "not as bad as Houston" to be a place that Watson wants to go.  The whole not even talking to him around the draft is a thing for him.  He has already shown that he is willing to raise a stink when he doesn't like things.  I just don't see what about Chicago would sell Watson on wanting to come here.

I mean again until I hear he'd nix the bears, they can only worry about providing Houston with the best package.

And I did raise one positive Bears have at least compared to the Houston and Jets situations is an Owner who has had a positive and empowering relationship with his players activism.

Now, there's been some reports that the JEts are Watson's #1, and Matt Miller - who gets stuff wrong a lot - intimated that Watson wouldn't want to go play for an owner accused of the stuff Woody Johnson has been accused of. But it's all speculation at this point.

My only thing is I think the Bears will be aggressive with a package due to them not really having a backup aside from Mac Jones - no sure thing.

Everything else is speculation until we hear that Watson is specifically using his no-trade clause.

[southsider2k5]

I mean obviously it is all speculation, but lining up what we already know indicates the Bears probably aren't a favorite.

[bmags]

additional Mort tweet indicating Jets not being a choice of Watson - which would have to be the character of the owner as the issue.

[Chisoxfn]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

I'm not swayed by these arguments. But one pro-side for the bears, is that despite George's faults, he really dug in and listened to his players and worked with them positively regarding their activism in the past several years. At least by outside accounts. This at least appears to be part of Watson's unhappiness in Houston.

I like the way your thinking and there is some pretty sound logic on teams at the top of the draft falling in love with their scouting and the concept that they can hit with a top pick, save assets and build a better team, plus have a QB on a rookie scale contract. I see many reasons why if I'm Miami, maybe the longer it goes I go down that path.  

That doesn't take the Colts/Niners out of the equation though - and they obviously are going to be attractive destinations as well. I would think San Fran / Indy are more attractive - but that doesn't mean they go as bold as the Bears do and I don't see why Watson would veto a trade to one of the big market teams and one where he could turn a historic franchise around.  And it isn't as if there are a bunch of players saying Chicago has been a bad place to play under Nagy or anything like that (at least not yet).  

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

This part I'm not that worried about. Nfl Cap is too malleable. That said, as noted multiple times, I don't really understand the nfl but this is my kinda working mindset. Hopefully these aren't too bad.

1) If you get Watson, you re-sign Robinson because even if you are paying him more than you wanted, you'll be better off getting a deal that you can work the cap around with.

2) You will likely need to trade Kyle Fuller, to make it easy let's say this is in the Deshaun Watson. This would net you +$11 million

3) Restructure Mack can net you a lot but puts you in a dead money for rest of his deal, but hey, you live with it. Spotrac shows a restructure converting base into signing bonus nets you +$14 mill (+$25 million total)

4) Release Jimmy Graham +$7 million (+$32 million total)

5) Cut Bobby Massie +6.8 mill (38.8 mill)

6) Convert more of Deshaun Watson's deal into signing bonus (+$2 million)

Spotrac says Watson is actually only +$10 mill this year. so this has bears at +$18 million. So if you re-sign Robinson you could get his 2020 cap hit lower hopefully, and have some money to re-sign an Ifedi for RT.

If the Rams have figured out a way to work all the various moves and trading of picks they have done over the past handful of years - than I'm sure the Bears can figure out creative ways to do it.  

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

additional Mort tweet indicating Jets not being a choice of Watson - which would have to be the character of the owner as the issue.

And I think we are all harder on Bears as maybe an outsider. An outsider would say the defense is still good - as elite as it was viewed a year ago, no, but still pretty good - yes. I could even make a case that Pace and Nagy and even outsiders would say - if you add in a QB of Watson's caliber - that alone upgrades to QB would be MASSIVE - and probably also help a defense that has been bit up by such a bad offense (and I imagine if you are the Bears you are probably saying a TON of that issue was on the QB).  

So yeah - if Bears could just give up a ton of picks and fit Watson under the cap and keep Arob and the rest of the team relatively status quo - I'd actually say they would have a chance to be pretty good.  Even the oline - it isn't great, but the young players showed enough and getting James Daniels back - that with a QB like Watson you probably can live with that oline (not love it - but live with it).

The problem with the Bears is the team will get worse in the next couple years because it doesn't have picks to inject other new talent - which will make things hard - but if Watson is as good as he is - you can still get creative and find ways to acquire players, etc.  And everything should be easier when you have a QB like Watson (if you truly believe he's a top 3 QB - there isn't a price out there that isn't worth it).  

Note: Watson probably has pretty vivid memories of going against the Bears defense too - they played a dang good game against Watson and were in his business the whole day.  I definitely could see Watson going - yeah - that can work (not saying it would be his top choice - but to say it can't work - nah).  

[bmags]

26 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

And I think we are all harder on Bears as maybe an outsider. An outsider would say the defense is still good - as elite as it was viewed a year ago, no, but still pretty good - yes. I could even make a case that Pace and Nagy and even outsiders would say - if you add in a QB of Watson's caliber - that alone upgrades to QB would be MASSIVE - and probably also help a defense that has been bit up by such a bad offense (and I imagine if you are the Bears you are probably saying a TON of that issue was on the QB).  

So yeah - if Bears could just give up a ton of picks and fit Watson under the cap and keep Arob and the rest of the team relatively status quo - I'd actually say they would have a chance to be pretty good.  Even the oline - it isn't great, but the young players showed enough and getting James Daniels back - that with a QB like Watson you probably can live with that oline (not love it - but live with it).

The problem with the Bears is the team will get worse in the next couple years because it doesn't have picks to inject other new talent - which will make things hard - but if Watson is as good as he is - you can still get creative and find ways to acquire players, etc.  And everything should be easier when you have a QB like Watson (if you truly believe he's a top 3 QB - there isn't a price out there that isn't worth it).  

Note: Watson probably has pretty vivid memories of going against the Bears defense too - they played a dang good game against Watson and were in his business the whole day.  I definitely could see Watson going - yeah - that can work (not saying it would be his top choice - but to say it can't work - nah).  

The Bears will also have Eddie Goldman back, and the hope with Desai is the ability to get Eddie Jackson's mojo back. Playing with a lead more often wouldn't hurt either.

And on offense, younger players did step-up. Tackles are the issue, but if Montgomery's late season surge and getting Daniels back to a new interior oline with Mustipher/Whitehair could help a lot, especially if they can find some WR talent in another deep draft to go along with Robinson/Mooney.

Ideally, the bears pass rush and takeaways improve playing more with a lead than from behind constantly.

All to say the bears do not have a surplus of offensive talent by any stretch. But just one more skill player does a lot there, and this years WR draft looks very good.

[Chisoxfn]

14 minutes ago, bmags said:

The Bears will also have Eddie Goldman back, and the hope with Desai is the ability to get Eddie Jackson's mojo back. Playing with a lead more often wouldn't hurt either.

And on offense, younger players did step-up. Tackles are the issue, but if Montgomery's late season surge and getting Daniels back to a new interior oline with Mustipher/Whitehair could help a lot, especially if they can find some WR talent in another deep draft to go along with Robinson/Mooney.

Ideally, the bears pass rush and takeaways improve playing more with a lead than from behind constantly.

All to say the bears do not have a surplus of offensive talent by any stretch. But just one more skill player does a lot there, and this years WR draft looks very good.

Yeah - if you keep Robinson - who I still contend is not a great use of cap space - but he's clearly an above average wideout (just not elite) plus you have Mooney and a Kmet (who is definitely solid with upside)...get Cohen as a gadget player back and Montgomery who I still think is just a guy - but he is a balanced guy and at least flashed a lot better in 2nd half of the year when line did something.  

Bottom line - If you just switched Watson and Trubisky - I think you are talking about an 11-12 win team (on the upside).  Would it have flaws - absolutely - but very few teams in the cap era don't have flaws.  

[T R U]

You guys are funny. There is no chance the Bears get Watson, none. Matt Stafford just got traded for 2 firsts and a third, what do you think it’s gonna cost to get Watson?
 

How are the Bears going to a field a team with all their money tied up in two players? Watsons cap hit is 40 million in 2022, Mack is 27 million. They haven’t made a first round pick since 2018 and wouldn’t be making one until 2023 and that may be stretching it.

Stop giving yourself false hopes, you wouldn’t want that trade anyway. Just look at the Texans, they have Watson and no draft picks and are 4-12. If you can’t get good cheap talent around these monster QB contracts you can’t win, that’s the game. 

[The Beast]

26 minutes ago, T R U said:

You guys are funny. There is no chance the Bears get Watson, none. Matt Stafford just got traded for 2 firsts and a third, what do you think it’s gonna cost to get Watson?
 

How are the Bears going to a field a team with all their money tied up in two players? Watsons cap hit is 40 million in 2022, Mack is 27 million. They haven’t made a first round pick since 2018 and wouldn’t be making one until 2023 and that may be stretching it.

Stop giving yourself false hopes, you wouldn’t want that trade anyway. Just look at the Texans, they have Watson and no draft picks and are 4-12. If you can’t get good cheap talent around these monster QB contracts you can’t win, that’s the game. 

While you’re probably right you do know why the Lions got the deal they did, right? Goff’s massive deal offset by the second first round pick.

Watson will command three first rounders at a minimum.

Edited February 2, 2021 by The Beast