Crunching the SoS Numbers

[BRDSR]

I keep hearing about the relative strength of schedules between the Sox, Indians, and Twins, so I decided to crunch some numbers using their weighted strength of schedules.  A weighted strength of schedule accounts not just for who each team plays, but how often.  So two games against the Pirates is good for a team, but it may not outweigh four games against a division rival.  The teams’ weighted strength of schedules are:

Sox: .541

Indians: .524

Twins: .549

So, the Indians have the easiest remaining schedule, the Sox have the next easiest, and the Twins have the toughest.  But over the course of 17 games, we're talking about some pretty thin margins.

Now, let’s assume each team wins at a clip the average of their own winning percentage and the winning percentage of their weighted strength of schedule. 

At .628 facing .541, we can expect the Sox to win at a .585 clip, or 10-7 in their remaining 17 games.

At .591 facing .524, we can expect the Indians to win at a .558 clip, or 9-7 in their remaining 16 games.

At .600 facing .549, we can expect the Twins to win a ta .575 clip, or 9-6 in their remaining 15 games.

Using those numbers, Sox beat the Twins by one game and the Indians by two to win the division!

But now, let’s factor in the pitching depth issues the Sox currently have and the fact that they play 17 games while their division rivals play 16 and 15 over the remaining 17 days of the season.  Let’s adjust the Sox win total down by one to factor that in, and they tie the Twins and come out a game ahead of the Indians, and surely all three are making the postseason.  This is officially my prediction for how the three teams will end the season. 

Assuming for the sake of argument that it plays out this way, is there a tiebreaker game between the Sox and Twins for the division title and seeding?  I can’t recall a scenario in the past where two teams played a tiebreaker, both of whom were guaranteed a playoff spot, so I’m thinking not.  But the Internet did not yield an obvious answer for me.

[joejoesox]

No, the division winner would go to the team who won the season series between them.

[ChiSox1917]

17 games in 17 days is going to be absolutely brutal.  I really hope the bullpen can survive

[hi8is]

1 hour ago, BRDSR said:

I keep hearing about the relative strength of schedules between the Sox, Indians, and Twins, so I decided to crunch some numbers using their weighted strength of schedules.  A weighted strength of schedule accounts not just for who each team plays, but how often.  So two games against the Pirates is good for a team, but it may not outweigh four games against a division rival.  The teams’ weighted strength of schedules are:

Sox: .541

Indians: .524

Twins: .549

So, the Indians have the easiest remaining schedule, the Sox have the next easiest, and the Twins have the toughest.  But over the course of 17 games, we're talking about some pretty thin margins.

Now, let’s assume each team wins at a clip the average of their own winning percentage and the winning percentage of their weighted strength of schedule. 

At .628 facing .541, we can expect the Sox to win at a .585 clip, or 10-7 in their remaining 17 games.

At .591 facing .524, we can expect the Indians to win at a .558 clip, or 9-7 in their remaining 16 games.

At .600 facing .549, we can expect the Twins to win a ta .575 clip, or 9-6 in their remaining 15 games.

Using those numbers, Sox beat the Twins by one game and the Indians by two to win the division!

But now, let’s factor in the pitching depth issues the Sox currently have and the fact that they play 17 games while their division rivals play 16 and 15 over the remaining 17 days of the season.  Let’s adjust the Sox win total down by one to factor that in, and they tie the Twins and come out a game ahead of the Indians, and surely all three are making the postseason.  This is officially my prediction for how the three teams will end the season. 

Assuming for the sake of argument that it plays out this way, is there a tiebreaker game between the Sox and Twins for the division title and seeding?  I can’t recall a scenario in the past where two teams played a tiebreaker, both of whom were guaranteed a playoff spot, so I’m thinking not.  But the Internet did not yield an obvious answer for me.

You’re not statistically or analytically inclined, are you?

[Harry Chappas]

31 minutes ago, ChiSox1917 said:

17 games in 17 days is going to be absolutely brutal.  I really hope the bullpen can survive

Every team is in this boat.  It is a 60 game schedule with normal off days.  The bullpen will be better suited for these playoffs then after a 162 game grind.  I think all playoff pitching will be better this fall as guys will be more fresh. 

[BRDSR]

21 minutes ago, hi8is said:

You’re not statistically or analytically inclined, are you?

Heh, a trial lawyer by trade, actually.  So maybe analytically inclined.  And I showed promise in math, you know, in elementary school...but what you see is about the outer limits of my abilities with statistics. 

[EloyJenkins]

those numbers look about right. Crazy to think, but the Cubs are the real wildcard in all this. I really wish Cardinals were a bit closer for division to really push them. But Cubs face both of Indians/Twins when games still matter and before they have the soft Pirates series to start aligning their rotation and rest for playoffs and the closing series with the Sox. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

47 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

Every team is in this boat.  It is a 60 game schedule with normal off days.  The bullpen will be better suited for these playoffs then after a 162 game grind.  I think all playoff pitching will be better this fall as guys will be more fresh. 

Harry, I don't know if you've noticed but no one feels more fresh. Pitching injuries are at a historical high. 

17 games in 17 days never happens in a regular 162 game season (wrong). I have no idea why baseball gave 4 off-days in such a short span the way they did.

Some of the veteran starters may feel a bit more fresh for the playoffs if they have their legs under them finally. I think the majority of bullpen arms across baseball are not feeling great though.

Edited September 11, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[flavum]

17 games in 17 days never happens in a regular 162-game season? Would you like me to provide about 500 examples? Of course it happens. The rule used to be no longer than 20 days in a row, and that would happen often. Now with the extra four days off, it’s less common. 

[Dick Allen]

The Sox are going to make the playoffs, but more important than winning the division or even coming in second, is lining up the rotation for round one. If it is lined up for round one, it will probably be lined up for round two.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, flavum said:

17 games in 17 days never happens in a regular 162-game season? Would you like me to provide about 500 examples? Of course it happens. The rule used to be no longer than 20 days in a row, and that would happen often. Now with the extra four days off, it’s less common. 

you are correct; sox played 17 games in 17 days last year between July 12th and July 28th and again in August. I was wrong.

I guess it just feels more draining given the lack of off-days outside of the 4 collected together. Pitching injuries moreso related to lack of lead up to the season and not sure anyone has caught their legs yet.

Edited September 11, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[BRDSR]

27 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The Sox are going to make the playoffs, but more important than winning the division or even coming in second, is lining up the rotation for round one. If it is lined up for round one, it will probably be lined up for round two.

I've been thinking about the importance of winning the division, and I think it's actually more important than many here think.  Win the division, get a banner.  Win the division, face a lower seeded opponent, should give a higher chance of winning that first round.  (Of course, if they're not well-aligned, the lower the chance, I get it.)  But can you imagine what a division championship and a series win would mean to the confidence of this young team?

I'm not saying it's either/or, just that winning the division should be prioritized accordingly with aligning the team "perfectly" for the post season.  I actually think the Keuchel move to the IL is a good balance in that regard (assuming that it is what we think it is and he's able to go 4-6 strong starts when he returns, if necessary).  A division win can't be taken away, but there are no guarantees in that first 3-game series, no matter how well-aligned the team looks on paper.

[Harry Chappas]

46 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Harry, I don't know if you've noticed but no one feels more fresh. Pitching injuries are at a historical high. 

17 games in 17 days never happens in a regular 162 game season (wrong). I have no idea why baseball gave 4 off-days in such a short span the way they did.

Some of the veteran starters may feel a bit more fresh for the playoffs if they have their legs under them finally. I think the majority of bullpen arms across baseball are not feeling great though.

I think in the playoffs pitchers that are still around will be stronger in the playoffs this year then prior years. 

Hitters will be more fresh as well so there are trade offs. 

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by Harry Chappas

[smellysox]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Harry, I don't know if you've noticed but no one feels more fresh. Pitching injuries are at a historical high. 

17 games in 17 days never happens in a regular 162 game season (wrong). I have no idea why baseball gave 4 off-days in such a short span the way they did.

Some of the veteran starters may feel a bit more fresh for the playoffs if they have their legs under them finally. I think the majority of bullpen arms across baseball are not feeling great though.

Really, I was just thinking this. I can't remember the Sox ever playing 17 games in a row with no off days! 

My bad. I see that they did last year. Weird. I really don't remember that happening. 

Edited September 11, 2020 by smellysox