Offseason Targets

[Capital G]

25 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

The ideal model for this rotation will be proven excellence at the top and open spots at the back saved for the developement of our other players.  We already have Keuchel as a depth piece even though he pitched like a top end guy this season.  There should be an attempt to make one addition at the front end and then give Cease and Dunning a spot.  Stroman and Bauer aren't really the ideal top end guys but they're good enough to slot in near the top of this rotation.  

Even if the idea is to one day trade Dunning, if you give him a full season to establish himself at the MLB level then maybe he could be a 1st piece or a big second piece in a deal next year.  We really need to manage the pieces we are trading well.  The farm system quality is going to drop off very fast after our top few guys and it's hard to replenish it while contending.  If we manage things well, we should be able to smartly develop players and then trade others after they have proven to be MLB pieces for the chance to turn the window into a 6-8 year contention window instead of otherwise, which would be like a 3-5 year window only.

You dont think Bauer is a TOR starter?

[bmags]

15 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

The Sox already have Cease, Dunning, Kopech, Stiever, and Crochet at or near the MLB level with Kelly, Thompson, Dalquist, and Vera potentially 2-3 years behind them.  I really don't see why adding 2 of those types helps us win later.  We should be trying to win now and later, and we can't win later if we fail to give opportunities to our own player.  Notice I am already completely omitting Reynaldo which at least some other teams wouldn't do.

Just think about the Cubs for a second.  Their fans have to be excited about Alec Mills, in part because he threw a no-no.  He's got less upside than Phil Humber did.  We're in a great position so we shouldn't ruin it.  We have a list of guys who could be as good or better than all of three of those names by 2022 or even a couple by next year.

I mean, read the last sentence of what you quoted. The reason they are fine is because they are not an obstacle to any of what you said.

[YourWhatHurts]

38 minutes ago, Capital G said:

You dont think Bauer is a TOR starter?

No, not really.  A 2/3 IMO.

[YourWhatHurts]

34 minutes ago, bmags said:

I mean, read the last sentence of what you quoted. The reason they are fine is because they are not an obstacle to any of what you said.

If you cut out 1 rotation slot in 2021 then you stop at least 1 if not 2 or more pitchers from developing during that season.  These guys need rotation slots not pen work.

[YourWhatHurts]

IMO Scherzer and DeGrom are #1s that could be available.  Maybe there are others I am not thinking about.  I don't see Lynn as a #1 either and I wouldn't trade for him at all.

[iWiN4PreP]

16 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

IMO Scherzer and DeGrom are #1s that could be available.  Maybe there are others I am not thinking about.  I don't see Lynn as a #1 either and I wouldn't trade for him at all.

I highly doubt deGrom is available after the Mets got new management... but i guess we will have to see the direction they go. 

[fathom]

9 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

I highly doubt deGrom is available after the Mets got new management... but i guess we will have to see the direction they go. 

He absolutely, positively won’t be.  Scherzer won’t be either.

[SonofaRoache]

44 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

No, not really.  A 2/3 IMO.

That is a top of rotation starter. Bauer imo is definitely a high quality number 2 at his best. 

[bmags]

1 hour ago, YourWhatHurts said:

If you cut out 1 rotation slot in 2021 then you stop at least 1 if not 2 or more pitchers from developing during that season.  These guys need rotation slots not pen work.

Develop in AAA. None of the pitchers you mentioned are good enough to demand a starting spot on a playoff team. I remember just 6 months ago when people argued the 2020 white Sox were deep at starting rotation

[Timmy U]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

Develop in AAA. None of the pitchers you mentioned are good enough to demand a starting spot on a playoff team. I remember just 6 months ago when people argued the 2020 white Sox were deep at starting rotation

I wonder if the change in pitching coach is going to have an effect on this calculus.  In recent years, Cooper's record of helping top prospects transition into MLB starters was abysmal.  Lopez regressed, and this year when they wanted to fix him they sent him to Zaleski.  Cease looks considerably worse  than he did in AA.  Sure, his ERA was better this year but his peripherals collapsed from 2019 to 2020.  I guess you can cite Giolito, but there's no evidence Cooper was involved in that at all.  Long term, if they don't get that fixed, it's not going to matter if they sign Bauer or trade for somebody.  No organization is gonna thrive if they can't develop their players.

[striker]

27 minutes ago, bmags said:

Develop in AAA. None of the pitchers you mentioned are good enough to demand a starting spot on a playoff team. I remember just 6 months ago when people argued the 2020 white Sox were deep at starting rotation

This. The time to develop in the majors has passed. You do that when you don't care about winning. Now you push your chips in to put yourself in the best position to win every day. 

Too many good pitchers is a good problem to have.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, YourWhatHurts said:

No, not really.  A 2/3 IMO.

If Bauer isn't a #1, there are only a handful of #1 in the whole game. 

Everyone's definition of a #1 is different.  Is it a true shut down ace?  Is it a team's best starter?  Is it a top 15 SP in each league?  Top 30 in the game?  

Doesn't really matter, but Bauer is really really good.  He's a "#1" by all definitions above, but perhaps not one of the best 3-5 SP in the game.  

[EloyJenkins]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

He absolutely, positively won’t be.  Scherzer won’t be either.

yeah, Mets getting new ownership absolutely killed the pipe dream of DeGrom. They will spend and honestly be up against FAs the Sox are pursuing. 

Scherzer is an interesting idea actually. He only has one year left...is not the ace he once was by Age...but still could be a great playoff piece. He is owed 27.3 mil salary  & 7.1 signing bonus defer. If Sox strike out on Bauer and Stroman - honestly trading for him without paying any of the future deferral 7yrs/105mil could be a smart move. Gives Sox a win now experienced WS and playoff master, as well as first rights to sign him for another season or two if things go well at a manageable price (since the dude makes 15 mil/season til 2028). The question is how much would the Nationals want for him? It would take at least Dunning back plus 2 prospects. But I think this actually is a smart way to hit balls to the wall next season and still let the 2-4 young 2022 SP candidates sort themselves out.

Edited October 16, 2020 by EloyJenkins

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

53 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

I wonder if the change in pitching coach is going to have an effect on this calculus.  In recent years, Cooper's record of helping top prospects transition into MLB starters was abysmal.  Lopez regressed, and this year when they wanted to fix him they sent him to Zaleski.  Cease looks considerably worse  than he did in AA.  Sure, his ERA was better this year but his peripherals collapsed from 2019 to 2020.  I guess you can cite Giolito, but there's no evidence Cooper was involved in that at all.  Long term, if they don't get that fixed, it's not going to matter if they sign Bauer or trade for somebody.  No organization is gonna thrive if they can't develop their players.

I mean, there's only no evidence if you ignore Giolitos own words.

[Timmy U]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I mean, there's only no evidence if you ignore Giolitos own words.

Giolito credited Renteria and Cooper for standing by him; the actual changes were suggested by Adam Katz.  For the record, I stood by Giolito during that time as well. Not sure if it helped.

[SonofaRoache]

4 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Giolito credited Renteria and Cooper for standing by him; the actual changes were suggested by Adam Katz.  For the record, I stood by Giolito during that time as well. Not sure if it helped.

To be fair, your manager having confidence in you to explore your options is a big thing. Confidence is very important to a pitcher. I'll give Coop and Ricky some credit for the turnaround. 

Edited October 16, 2020 by SonofaRoache

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Giolito credited Renteria and Cooper for standing by him; the actual changes were suggested by Adam Katz.  For the record, I stood by Giolito during that time as well. Not sure if it helped.

I've posted the article here a few times but cooper is directly credited with helping turn it around in an August piece done by Fegan from two years back. 

[oneofthemikes]

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I've posted the article here a few times but cooper is directly credited with helping turn it around in an August piece done by Fegan from two years back. 

Not to suggest that Coop didn't do anything, but what else is Giolito going to say in that situation? "Boy, my current pitching coach really isn't worth a damn so I went back to my high school coach to fix me." Of course he is going to credit Coop, especially on the record. Only Lucas knows exactly how the turnaround happened and he's never going to come right out and say it because he's not that type of guy.

[SonofaRoache]

6 minutes ago, oneofthemikes said:

Not to suggest that Coop didn't do anything, but what else is Giolito going to say in that situation? "Boy, my current pitching coach really isn't worth a damn so I went back to my high school coach to fix me." Of course he is going to credit Coop, especially on the record. Only Lucas knows exactly how the turnaround happened and he's never going to come right out and say it because he's not that type of guy.

He and his father could have said nothing or gave a more generic answer. 

[bmags]

35 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I've posted the article here a few times but cooper is directly credited with helping turn it around in an August piece done by Fegan from two years back. 

That was nice of him to say, but he completely revamped his entire motion over the course of an offseason that was not overseen by Cooper. I'm sure cooper taught him stuff about pitching but I'd put more of his success to Farquhar teaching him about pitching his fastball high in the zone and the team that re-designed his motion than coop keeping him prepared or whatever.

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, oneofthemikes said:

Not to suggest that Coop didn't do anything, but what else is Giolito going to say in that situation? "Boy, my current pitching coach really isn't worth a damn so I went back to my high school coach to fix me." Of course he is going to credit Coop, especially on the record. Only Lucas knows exactly how the turnaround happened and he's never going to come right out and say it because he's not that type of guy.

 

45 minutes ago, bmags said:

That was nice of him to say, but he completely revamped his entire motion over the course of an offseason that was not overseen by Cooper. I'm sure cooper taught him stuff about pitching but I'd put more of his success to Farquhar teaching him about pitching his fastball high in the zone and the team that re-designed his motion than coop keeping him prepared or whatever.

 

I agree with both of you, for the record .

[joejoedairy]

Does anyone know how Morton's vesting option works with the shortened season?

If we miss on Bauer, he would be a  good option 

[bmags]

1 hour ago, joejoedairy said:

Does anyone know how Morton's vesting option works with the shortened season?

If we miss on Bauer, he would be a  good option 

Good question that I can’t answer...but last night the announcers made it seem like it would be a team option that prior to last night Morton didn’t think they’d pick up the $14 mill.

[YourWhatHurts]

Crazy but IMO actually sensible deal if the Red Sox want to dump salary:

Sale + Vazquez for Grandal + Keuchel + Lopez + Rodon + Mazara, pre-nontender deadline

Why for Sox:  They are probably looking at trying to dump Rodon and Mazara anyway, and probably looking at least at a change of scenery deal with Lopez.  They effectively swap out Keuchel's spot and contract for Sale's, meaning that there's more risk and more money, but way more upside also.  Vazquez slots in at C and Collins sits behind him.  In reality, Vazquez is an upgrade over Grandal as a C immediately, and he is under control through 2022 with also a chance at a QO if he is worthy for 2023.  Grandal is guaranteed through 2023 so it's almost a wash on control, and Vazquez is more easily extendable for 2023-2024 because his current contract basically would mean that the Sox have him by the balls a bit.  I bet Hahn could extend Vazquez's deal.

Why for Red Sox: They get to dump all of the remaining salary owed to Sale.  Also they can choose whether they want to try to take a shot on Rodon as a SP or closer as a deadline piece, and a shot at Mazara also as a deadline trade piece.  Keuchel gives them rotation certainty at a much more reasonable cost and Grandal really fits the Red Sox as a part time C part time DH with OBP and power.  Lopez is also a reclamation project they have rotation space form, but one they could try to keep if they can fix him.  If the Red Sox wanted they could nontender everyone but Keuchel and Grandal.

Not sure on arb raises but in 2020 salary the Sox send out 18.25M for Grandal + 18M for Keuchel + 4.45M for Rodon + 5.56M for Mazara + 0.605M for Lopez = 46.865M in 2020 salary, and send out 110.75M in guaranteed obligations to Keuchel (56M through 2023) and Grandal (54.75M through 2023).  Meanwhile the Red Sox send out 30M for Sale + 4.2M for Vazquez = 34.2M in 2020 salary and send out 142.25M in guaranteed obligations to Sale (135M through 2025) and Vazquez (6.25M in 2021 with a club option on 2022 for 7M with a 0.25M buyout).  The Sox would take on about 31M more in guaranteed money but would get Sale through 2025 and Vazquez through at least 2022, again with a great chance of keeping him beyond that point.

Personally I would chance it with Sale if the medical staff and pitching coaches could look at him.  The contract lessens in value over time, down to 27.5M then 20M in 2025 for his age 36 season.  We would be betting on a successful return from TJ and paying for his age 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36 seasons, probably hoping we get some help in the second half of 2021, an ace in 2022-23, maybe a #3 in 2024, and a #5 or reliever in 2025.  

**Edit: I like this deal because it redirects 2 contracts that I think are going to be at least somewhat regretful in 2022-23 anyway, and allows us a chance to put a legit #1 and a LHP at the top of our rotation (again) while making a defensive upgrade at C for our playoff window.  And hopefully it would keep enough salary available to still go after Stroman/Bauer/etc. this offseason.  I really am not a huge fan of Grandal behind the plate overall and as a leader of the pitching staff and defense, and I also don't like him taking DH ABs from Eloy who should be there now and Abreu who should be there pretty soon.  And additionally I still think Keuchel is more likely to be a #3-#5 than the top-end guy he pitched like this season, and the guy who once won a Cy Young.

Edited October 18, 2020 by YourWhatHurts

[RagahRagah]

13 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Crazy but IMO actually sensible deal if the Red Sox want to dump salary:

Sale + Vazquez for Grandal + Keuchel + Lopez + Rodon + Mazara, pre-nontender deadline

Why for Sox:  They are probably looking at trying to dump Rodon and Mazara anyway, and probably looking at least at a change of scenery deal with Lopez.  They effectively swap out Keuchel's spot and contract for Sale's, meaning that there's more risk and more money, but way more upside also.  Vazquez slots in at C and Collins sits behind him.  In reality, Vazquez is an upgrade over Grandal as a C immediately, and he is under control through 2022 with also a chance at a QO if he is worthy for 2023.  Grandal is guaranteed through 2023 so it's almost a wash on control, and Vazquez is more easily extendable for 2023-2024 because his current contract basically would mean that the Sox have him by the balls a bit.  I bet Hahn could extend Vazquez's deal.

Why for Red Sox: They get to dump all of the remaining salary owed to Sale.  Also they can choose whether they want to try to take a shot on Rodon as a SP or closer as a deadline piece, and a shot at Mazara also as a deadline trade piece.  Keuchel gives them rotation certainty at a much more reasonable cost and Grandal really fits the Red Sox as a part time C part time DH with OBP and power.  Lopez is also a reclamation project they have rotation space form, but one they could try to keep if they can fix him.  If the Red Sox wanted they could nontender everyone but Keuchel and Grandal.

Not sure on arb raises but in 2020 salary the Sox send out 18.25M for Grandal + 18M for Keuchel + 4.45M for Rodon + 5.56M for Mazara + 0.605M for Lopez = 46.865M in 2020 salary, and send out 110.75M in guaranteed obligations to Keuchel (56M through 2023) and Grandal (54.75M through 2023).  Meanwhile the Red Sox send out 30M for Sale + 4.2M for Vazquez = 34.2M in 2020 salary and send out 142.25M in guaranteed obligations to Sale (135M through 2025) and Vazquez (6.25M in 2021 with a club option on 2022 for 7M with a 0.25M buyout).  The Sox would take on about 31M more in guaranteed money but would get Sale through 2025 and Vazquez through at least 2022, again with a great chance of keeping him beyond that point.

Personally I would chance it with Sale if the medical staff and pitching coaches could look at him.  The contract lessens in value over time, down to 27.5M then 20M in 2025 for his age 36 season.  We would be betting on a successful return from TJ and paying for his age 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36 seasons, probably hoping we get some help in the second half of 2021, an ace in 2022-23, maybe a #3 in 2024, and a #5 or reliever in 2025.  

**Edit: I like this deal because it redirects 2 contracts that I think are going to be at least somewhat regretful in 2022-23 anyway, and allows us a chance to put a legit #1 and a LHP at the top of our rotation (again) while making a defensive upgrade at C for our playoff window.  And hopefully it would keep enough salary available to still go after Stroman/Bauer/etc. this offseason.  I really am not a huge fan of Grandal behind the plate overall and as a leader of the pitching staff and defense, and I also don't like him taking DH ABs from Eloy who should be there now and Abreu who should be there pretty soon.  And additionally I still think Keuchel is more likely to be a #3-#5 than the top-end guy he pitched like this season, and the guy who once won a Cy Young.

Dealing Dallas to get another starter kinda defeats the purpose of going after one in the first place. We take one step forward and back at the same time. We also have McCann, so why trade a star catcher and seek another catcher rather than more pitching?. Not sure what the thought process is here...

Edited October 18, 2020 by KonerkoFan1