Offseason Targets

[Orlando]

My pitching choice is Stroman. I think a lot of people don’t realize just how good he has been. Opting out last year right after hitting the mark of being eligible for free agency (while injured) and now getting hit with the QO may have suppressed his value. He has had a very comparable career to Bauer. Bauer is going to get PAID and I think if the Sox pony up they will either be upset they did because he falls off or it will stop them from spending elsewhere. Merkin said the type of pitcher the Sox will pursue are pitchers “like Odorizzi” but that was before La Russa.

Edited November 1, 2020 by Orlando

[Tnetennba]

Does Archer have anything left?

[Harold's Leg Lift]

I'd absolutely take a chance on him.  Recent history has showed Pirate pitchers get better when they leave there.  

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

3 hours ago, SouthWallace said:

Does Archer have anything left?

 

2 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I'd absolutely take a chance on him.  Recent history has showed Pirate pitchers get better when they leave there.  

He's been recovering from the dreaded Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Wish the guy well and all, but this pretty much destroyed Matt Harvey's career. He's a hard pass for me. Take a chance on another guy, there's plenty out there.

Edited November 1, 2020 by CWSpalehoseCWS

[iWiN4PreP]

11 hours ago, Orlando said:

My pitching choice is Stroman. I think a lot of people don’t realize just how good he has been. Opting out last year right after hitting the mark of being eligible for free agency (while injured) and now getting hit with the QO may have suppressed his value. He has had a very comparable career to Bauer. Bauer is going to get PAID and I think if the Sox pony up they will either be upset they did because he falls off or it will stop them from spending elsewhere. Merkin said the type of pitcher the Sox will pursue are pitchers “like Odorizzi” but that was before La Russa.

I agree -- I'd love Stroman.

But I'd really love Stroman + Bauer :). 

[bmags]

Though lacking star power this FA really has a lot of quality depth, which is exactly what Sox need.

[Ducksnort]

14 hours ago, SouthWallace said:

 

That is ALOT of money for 1 season...He may very well accept it considering the pa demic and its effects on the game... then again he is a pitcher and you never know when injuries will happen so he will be looking for security

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

Though lacking star power this FA really has a lot of quality depth, which is exactly what Sox need.

Agreed, although I think we still need to acquire one legit #1-#3 starter

[Chicago White Sox]

It’s amazing how differently James McCann is valued by his diehard fans on this site vs. other baseball analysts.  Keith Law doesn’t even have him ranked amongst the top 40 free agents.  Fangraphs has him ranked 33rd overall, but only projects him to get a deal around 2/$14M.  I personally think he’s being undervalued, but it does go to show how ridiculous the idea is that’s he suddenly the better catcher than Grandal.  

[Flash]

Anyone think Brewers would entertain moving Yelich? Arguably top 3 in MLB prior to last season. Wonder if their financial situation warrants trying to move his contract?

[EloyJenkins]

53 minutes ago, Flash said:

Anyone think Brewers would entertain moving Yelich? Arguably top 3 in MLB prior to last season. Wonder if their financial situation warrants trying to move his contract?

I like the thought. Major bounce back candidate. Cease/Collins/Madrigal get it done? Or would you have to include Vaughn? I don't think I can stomach him, but that trio plus another young arm would be okay. Buying a 2nd base FA wouldn't be that hard and Yelich may be the one guy worth Madrigal.

[Springfield Soxfan]

Do the Sox strike quickly and make any signings tonight?

[Chicago White Sox]

33 minutes ago, Tony said:

James McCann is 100% a better FA signing then Robinson Chirinois and Jon Lester, no doubt in my mind. 

I 100% agree.  I think he’s way undervalued by both Law & Fangraphs, but my point is Grandal was a consensus top 7 free agent last year in a class with at least a couple major stars whereas McCann is ranked fairly low (or not at all) despite pretty nice numbers the last two seasons.  This idea that McCann is the better player is just kind of crazy to me and I think most baseball experts would agree with that.

[Flash]

5 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

I like the thought. Major bounce back candidate. Cease/Collins/Madrigal get it done? Or would you have to include Vaughn? I don't think I can stomach him, but that trio plus another young arm would be okay. Buying a 2nd base FA wouldn't be that hard and Yelich may be the one guy worth Madrigal.

Brewers don't need 2B (have Hiura) but have needs across the IF and OF, especially after letting Gyorko and Braun go. Cease and Collins make sense but probably a bit light...maybe add Sheets and Stiever (WI kid) and they'd entertain it.  

[EloyJenkins]

28 minutes ago, Flash said:

Brewers don't need 2B (have Hiura) but have needs across the IF and OF, especially after letting Gyorko and Braun go. Cease and Collins make sense but probably a bit light...maybe add Sheets and Stiever (WI kid) and they'd entertain it.  

I forgot about Hiura. Yelich had a .259 babip last season. I love targeting him. There would need to be a controlled position player though out of the deal. It would have to either be Vaughn, madrigal or another starter, plus cease to even get them to answer phone. So it never happens. Love targeting guys with big contracts on smaller budget teams. The one year that getting money off the books may result in a smaller return than normal. 

Edited November 1, 2020 by EloyJenkins

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Agreed, although I think we still need to acquire one legit #1-#3 starter

OK, I read this post, and many here take this to mean that the 2021 SOX need a #1, which means "BAUER OR BUST!!!"

But, I look at a few teams' staffs, TOP TO BOTTOM:

White Sox Rotation

Tampa Bay Rotation

LAD Rotation

Cleveland Rotation

 

If you look at the two WS teams, the White Sox, and what I think is the best rotation in the division, Cleveland, what jumps out to me are the following:

1. By fWAR, only Cleveland had a TOR SP to rival Giolito. The others? TB's top SP by fWAR produced less than even Keuchel, and LAD's top SP only matched Keuchel.

2. [And I think this more important] By fWAR, the SOX had more negative fWAR SPs than the other teams in this sampling.  Moreover, the SOX's negative fWAR SPs were more negative than the other teams', except for LAD's one negative fWAR SP.

 

To me, this speaks MORE to the DEPTH of the rotation/avoidance of negative value players in the 26 man roster. And, this has been a running joke with this organization, going back to the "stars-and-scrubs" teams of Sale, et. al. IOW, it isn't/wasn't the dire need for "Top Talent," so much it's the avoidance of player that outright suck at baseball. I happen to believe in Giolito as a TOR SP going forward. I happen to have little faith in Cease or Lopez.

 

Relating this to this offseason/this team's offseason targets, I think DEPTH is the more dire need than "top talent," for top prices. Where this org has gone wrong is to target geezing geezers/"C-level FAs," and moronically thinking that Gio Gonzalez-types are better than they are.

 

So, for me, if you take the SOX rotation from 2020, then:

1. Subtract shitty SPs Dylan Cease [-0.4 fWAR this year] and Reynaldo Lopez [-0.5 fWAR this year],

2. Add above average SPs [call them #3s?] Marcus Stroman [ZIPS 2021 Projection: 3.2 fWAR] and  Jose Quintana [ZIPS 2021 Projection: 2.3 fWAR]  to the returning SPs from the 2020 WHITE SOX rotation,

 

Then, the 2021 rotation looks a LOT more like the rotations of LAD, Tampa, or Cleveland. To me, this doesn't mean "Bauer or bust."

YMMV.

Edited November 1, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[bmags]

33 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

OK, I read this post, and many here take this to mean that the 2021 SOX need a #1, which means "BAUER OR BUST!!!"

But, I look at a few teams' staffs, TOP TO BOTTOM:

White Sox Rotation

Tampa Bay Rotation

LAD Rotation

Cleveland Rotation

 

If you look at the two WS teams, the White Sox, and what I think is the best rotation in the division, Cleveland, what jumps out to me are the following:

1. By fWAR, only Cleveland had a TOR SP to rival Giolito. The others? TB's top SP by fWAR produced less than even Keuchel, and LAD's top SP only matched Keuchel.

2. [And I think this more important] By fWAR, the SOX had more negative fWAR SPs than the other teams in this sampling.  Moreover, the SOX's negative fWAR SPs were more negative than the other teams', except for LAD's one negative fWAR SP.

 

To me, this speaks MORE to the DEPTH of the rotation/avoidance of negative value players in the 26 man roster. And, this has been a running joke with this organization, going back to the "stars-and-scrubs" teams of Sale, et. al. IOW, it isn't/wasn't the dire need for "Top Talent," so much it's the avoidance of player that outright suck at baseball. I happen to believe in Giolito as a TOR SP going forward. I happen to have little faith in Cease or Lopez.

 

Relating this to this offseason/this team's offseason targets, I think DEPTH is the more dire need than "top talent," for top prices. Where this org has gone wrong is to target geezing geezers/"C-level FAs," and moronically thinking that Gio Gonzalez-types are better than they are.

 

So, for me, if you take the SOX rotation from 2020, then:

1. Subtract shitty SPs Dylan Cease [-0.4 fWAR this year] and Reynaldo Lopez [-0.5 fWAR this year],

2. Add above average SPs [call them #3s?] Marcus Stroman [ZIPS 2021 Projection: 3.2 fWAR] and  Jose Quintana [ZIPS 2021 Projection: 2.3 fWAR]  to the returning SPs from the 2020 WHITE SOX rotation,

 

Then, the 2021 rotation looks a LOT more like the rotations of LAD, Tampa, or Cleveland. To me, this doesn't mean "Bauer or bust."

YMMV.

Part of this is just usage. Snell and Kershaw were fantastic last year but their teams don’t have them go CGSO like Bieber/Giolito had.

But I’m not particularly in love with any of this crop, so I’d rather take advantage of the quality depth and wait until a big SP becomes available.

[Chicago White Sox]

44 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

OK, I read this post, and many here take this to mean that the 2021 SOX need a #1, which means "BAUER OR BUST!!!"

But, I look at a few teams' staffs, TOP TO BOTTOM:

White Sox Rotation

Tampa Bay Rotation

LAD Rotation

Cleveland Rotation

 

If you look at the two WS teams, the White Sox, and what I think is the best rotation in the division, Cleveland, what jumps out to me are the following:

1. By fWAR, only Cleveland had a TOR SP to rival Giolito. The others? TB's top SP by fWAR produced less than even Keuchel, and LAD's top SP only matched Keuchel.

2. [And I think this more important] By fWAR, the SOX had more negative fWAR SPs than the other teams in this sampling.  Moreover, the SOX's negative fWAR SPs were more negative than the other teams', except for LAD's one negative fWAR SP.

 

To me, this speaks MORE to the DEPTH of the rotation/avoidance of negative value players in the 26 man roster. And, this has been a running joke with this organization, going back to the "stars-and-scrubs" teams of Sale, et. al. IOW, it isn't/wasn't the dire need for "Top Talent," so much it's the avoidance of player that outright suck at baseball. I happen to believe in Giolito as a TOR SP going forward. I happen to have little faith in Cease or Lopez.

 

Relating this to this offseason/this team's offseason targets, I think DEPTH is the more dire need than "top talent," for top prices. Where this org has gone wrong is to target geezing geezers/"C-level FAs," and moronically thinking that Gio Gonzalez-types are better than they are.

 

So, for me, if you take the SOX rotation from 2020, then:

1. Subtract shitty SPs Dylan Cease [-0.4 fWAR this year] and Reynaldo Lopez [-0.5 fWAR this year],

2. Add above average SPs [call them #3s?] Marcus Stroman [ZIPS 2021 Projection: 3.2 fWAR] and  Jose Quintana [ZIPS 2021 Projection: 2.3 fWAR]  to the returning SPs from the 2020 WHITE SOX rotation,

 

Then, the 2021 rotation looks a LOT more like the rotations of LAD, Tampa, or Cleveland. To me, this doesn't mean "Bauer or bust."

YMMV.

I’m definitely not suggesting it’s Bauer or bust this offseason, although I do think he’d be the ideal addition for us.  That being said, we do need to add a legit #2 / #3 starter worst case scenario and to me that means either signing Stroman or trading for one.  And obviously if we can add a backend starter as well so we have both depth and the ability to give Cease some time in AAA even better.  All that said, I truly think there will be 14 playoff teams next year and if constrained I’d rather commit my resources to that top spot (to set us up better for October) than spread it over two rotation pieces (as our offense should hopefully get us there).

[Two-Gun Pete]

32 minutes ago, bmags said:

Part of this is just usage. Snell and Kershaw were fantastic last year but their teams don’t have them go CGSO like Bieber/Giolito had.

 But I’m not particularly in love with any of this crop, so I’d rather take advantage of the quality depth and wait until a big SP becomes available.

I think I agree that I like the depth moreso than the top-end quality. Beyond Bauer, there just isn't much "top-end" SP talent this offseason, IMO.

13 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m definitely not suggesting it’s Bauer or bust this offseason, although I do think he’d be the ideal addition for us.  That being said, we do need to add a legit #2 / #3 starter worst case scenario and to me that means either signing Stroman or trading for one.  And obviously if we can add a backend starter as well so we have both depth and the ability to give Cease some time in AAA even better.  All that said, I truly think there will be 14 playoff teams next year and if constrained I’d rather commit my resources to that top spot (to set us up better for October) than spread it over two rotation pieces (as our offense should hopefully get us there).

I think that if you add +5 fWAR with Bauer, but have to suffer through -3.0 fWAR between Lopez/Cease, this club may not even make it to the postseason. I think that if you take Tampa's lowest 2 SPs in place of Lopez/Cease, that the 2020 SOX may have made it to the ALCS, even WITH renteria and his stupid tactical decisions. I think that Bauer's probable 9-figure contract demands will prevent this team from adding other pieces that will avoid negative WAR in other spots. [#4/5 SPs, perhaps a closer, RF, and perhaps another BP arm.]

After all, the negative fWAR piles of trash at the end of the rotation limited the SOX to a mere 3.6 fWAR from the rotation this season. Most of the other top teams did NOT have the top-end performances of Giolito/Keuchel [by fWAR], yet they had more production overall from their rotations. Why? No/fewer shitty, negative WAR SPs than the SOX.

 

As an aside, who is/was Cease's biggest supporter in the org? If it was Coop, I'm ALL IN for trading his @ss and his fvkc-ton of walks the fvkc outta here.

Edited November 1, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[maloney.adam]

I wonder if we will try to trade for Lance Lynn since we missed out on him during the trade deadline. He played for La Russa and the Cardinals in 2011 but was injured for most of the season.

Edited November 1, 2020 by maloney.adam

[Chicago White Sox]

16 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think I agree that I like the depth moreso than the top-end quality. Beyond Bauer, there just isn't much "top-end" SP talent this offseason, IMO.

I think that if you add +5 fWAR with Bauer, but have to suffer through -3.0 fWAR between Lopez/Cease, this club may not even make it to the postseason. I think that if you take Tampa's lowest 2 SPs in place of Lopez/Cease, that the 2020 SOX may have made it to the ALCS, even WITH renteria and his stupid tactical decisions. I think that Bauer's probable 9-figure contract demands will prevent this team from adding other pieces that will avoid negative WAR in other spots. [#4/5 SPs, perhaps a closer, RF, and perhaps another BP arm.]

After all, the negative fWAR piles of trash at the end of the rotation limited the SOX to a mere 3.6 fWAR from the rotation this season. Most of the other top teams did NOT have the top-end performances of Giolito/Keuchel [by fWAR], yet they had more production overall from their rotations. Why? No/fewer shitty, negative WAR SPs than the SOX.

 

As an aside, who is/was Cease's biggest supporter in the org? If it was Coop, I'm ALL IN for trading his @ss and his fvkc-ton of walks the fvkc outta here.

I’m not sure how you’re getting -3.0 fWAR out of Cease or López as we’d hopefully only need one of them to start next year and that’s if we only add one starter.  Bauer, Gioltio, Keuchel, & Dunning would be your 1-4 to open the season. Kopech should be ready at some point for that #5 spot.  We basically would need Cease or López for a couple months (baring injury) and even then we have like seven off-days in April & May which reduces the need for a #5 starter.  I would still add a depth piece, but you could probably survive with a cheaper swing-man if you add the certainty of high end performance that Bauer brings to the table.

[bear_brian]

I do not think JR will put up the money for Bauer. What about Charlie Morton? He has been an excellent starter. The question with him is whether or not he is serious about retiring. If not he would be an outstanding #2 or #3 starter.

 

[2Deep]

Cease/Lopez/one top minor league prospect not named Vaugh 

For

Yellich

[spiderman]

Trevor Bauer and a left handed bat who can play RF. That's it. 

[tray]

I liked Jarred Kelenic as LH outfield prospect in the the Draft.   He is a LH bat that can play Center or RF. I would trade Vaughn plus Kopech (or Vaughn plus Cease and Collins) for him. 

I also still like Benintendi, even though his value has diminished some.  Either one could thrive in the White Sox line-up.