Offseason Targets

[ron883]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Yoan Moncada was the consensus #1 prospect in baseball at the time and Kopech was consensus top 30. Compare the value of the top 2 - Kopech and Vaughn are what, top 20 or top 30 right now if they counted? Kopech might even be top 50? If Vaughn is the centerpiece, he's way below the value of Moncada at the time, generally he's somewhere around #10 so something else has to make up the difference between a #1 prospect included and a #10-15 prospect, and that has to be pieces 3-4. That's how I got to Vaughn, Kopech, Cease, and Madrigal - top 2 don't match the Sale deal, but back 2 make up the difference. 

Madrigal (top 100), Dunning might be borderline top 100 based on what he did this year, Cease and Stiever are outside the top 100 but moderately close? Even if Tampa Bay really, really liked those guys, they can easily find better talent. 

Madrigal Cease Vaughn are 3 major league ready players. Cease obviously needs work, but he has ace potential still. Madrigal and Vaughn are locks to be above average at their positions IMO. 

Kopech was no guarantee to be a starter during the time of the trade, and Moncada did have some question marks as to whether his strikeout rate would allow him to hit enough in the majors.  

[ron883]

27 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If I were Tampa Bay, I would not give up Snell for that deal as if I were moving Snell I would expect I could get better than that from someone else. You are adding Kopech to the list or I'll find better elsewhere. Kopech, Vaughn, Madrigal, and Cease - you've probably got a deal. That contract is expensive for Tampa Bay, but under control for 3 years for that money, with a Cy Young award, money that works for 28/30 teams, you're talking a Sale level deal for him.

This is easily more than the Sale trade, and it's not even close. 4 players that are MLB ready next year and all have all star potential? Rick Hahn should be fired if he offers a trade like that. Sheesh

[ron883]

Madrigal, Cease, Dunning is as far as I would go for Snell. The problem is you are trying to snag an ace from a competitive team. You're better off trying to acquire an ace from a rebuilding team. Going for Marquez from the rockies makes more sense.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

Not for only two years of Musgrove. Dunning isn’t great, but he should be a solid number 5 at worst going forward.

Son of a gun does he only have two years left?

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Madrigal, Cease, Dunning is as far as I would go for Snell. The problem is you are trying to snag an ace from a competitive team. You're better off trying to acquire an ace from a rebuilding team. Going for Marquez from the rockies makes more sense.

As I said, that's a rotten return for Snell even if they really like those guys. And that doesn't even note the fact that Tampa Bay has Lowe firmly ensconced at 2b, and Madrigal seems pretty position limited. 

[ron883]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

As I said, that's a rotten return for Snell even if they really like those guys. And that doesn't even note the fact that Tampa Bay has Lowe firmly ensconced at 2b, and Madrigal seems pretty position limited. 

Yep, it is just a poor fit for a trade. You need to find a rebuilding team IMO. I still think Marquez is your best bet. His numbers are really impressive away. He's a great #2, possibly a #1

Edited November 22, 2020 by Yearnin' for Yermin

[Balta1701]

Just now, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Yep, it is just a poor fit for a trade. You need to find a rebuilding team IMO. I still think Marquez is your best bet. His numbers are really impressive away. He's a great #2, possibly a #1

I mean, the problem with Marquez is that his comp is Quintana, and that comp is Vaughn + Kopech also. 2 really good prospects, top 30 quality. We're talking about guys I won't give up in order to make either of these guys work. If they get a Cease, Madrigal, and Dunning offer, they're at least going to call around to other teams knowing the White Sox won't rescind that offer, and they'll get better talent for him.

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, maloney.adam said:

Only if it’s for the backend of the rotation. They need someone for the top of the rotation as well.

A 3 WAR starter would be a good enough plug to allow the young guns to develop, especially if he's not too costly. It's not Bauer, which is the ideal solution, but it's at least plugging the hole.

[ron883]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I mean, the problem with Marquez is that his comp is Quintana, and that comp is Vaughn + Kopech also. 2 really good prospects, top 30 quality. We're talking about guys I won't give up in order to make either of these guys work. If they get a Cease, Madrigal, and Dunning offer, they're at least going to call around to other teams knowing the White Sox won't rescind that offer, and they'll get better talent for him.

Cease was not at Kopech's level during the trade. Eloy then was comparable to Vaughn now in value. 

Vaughn and Kopech are both major league ready. Neither Eloy or Cease were. 

Cease, Dunning, Madrigal is fair I would say

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Cease was not at Kopech's level during the trade. Eloy then was comparable to Vaughn now in value. 

Vaughn and Kopech are both major league ready. Neither Eloy or Cease were. 

Cease, Dunning, Madrigal is fair I would say

Cease was top 50 or better at the time of that deal, and Eloy was top 5. This is just illustrating the problem - we don't want to give up fair value in these proposed deals, we're assuming the Rockies or Rays will give their players up for less than they're worth. 

[bmags]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Cease was top 50 or better at the time of that deal, and Eloy was top 5. This is just illustrating the problem - we don't want to give up fair value in these proposed deals, we're assuming the Rockies or Rays will give their players up for less than they're worth. 

Eloy was 11, cease was 90 in BA.

[ron883]

19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Cease was top 50 or better at the time of that deal, and Eloy was top 5. This is just illustrating the problem - we don't want to give up fair value in these proposed deals, we're assuming the Rockies or Rays will give their players up for less than they're worth. 

Eloy was top 10 and Cease was barely top 100. They also weren't major league ready. Madrigal, Cease, Dunning gives you 3 major league ready players. Madrigal and Dunning are almost sure things to stick as starters. Cease still has ace potential. I think the Rockies accept that deal. 

[Balta1701]

12 minutes ago, bmags said:

Eloy was 11, cease was 90 in BA.

MLB.com had Cease 57.

[Balta1701]

12 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Eloy was top 10 and Cease was barely top 100. They also weren't major league ready. Madrigal, Cease, Dunning gives you 3 major league ready players. Madrigal and Dunning are almost sure things to stick as starters. Cease still has ace potential. I think the Rockies accept that deal. 

I mean, the Rockies might, but that's because I'm not sure they're run that well. I'd scoff at that if I was the Rockies GM. 

[bmags]

42 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

MLB.com had Cease 57.

Ok so if those are gospel (despite 57 not being top 50) Vaughn is 13 and kopech is 18 currently at mlb. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, bmags said:

Ok so if those are gospel (despite 57 not being top 50) Vaughn is 13 and kopech is 18 currently at mlb. 

So Kopech and Vaughn is a pretty fair price for them to ask for Marquez (particularly since Kopech has lost a year of control). Comparable to the Quintana deal. Maybe a little higher price, but you get 4 years of Marquez right now and the Cubs got 3.4 of Quintana, and Quintana was not performing that great in the few months prior while Marquez just had a great season, led the league in IP and did so quite effectively.

Maybe, maybe, you could talk me into Vaughn + Madrigal + Dunning or something like that instead of Kopech, but the 3rd piece has to be pretty good to offset the 2nd piece being worse. But you don't get him without Vaughn as the centerpiece, that's not even up for discussion, he's not available without that piece.

[ron883]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So Kopech and Vaughn is a pretty fair price for them to ask for Marquez (particularly since Kopech has lost a year of control). Comparable to the Quintana deal. Maybe a little higher price, but you get 4 years of Marquez right now and the Cubs got 3.4 of Quintana, and Quintana was not performing that great in the few months prior while Marquez just had a great season, led the league in IP and did so quite effectively.

Maybe, maybe, you could talk me into Vaughn + Madrigal + Dunning or something like that instead of Kopech, but the 3rd piece has to be pretty good to offset the 2nd piece being worse. But you don't get him without Vaughn as the centerpiece, that's not even up for discussion, he's not available without that piece.

Q put up 4.9, 4.3, and 4.9 fWAR in the seasons leading up to that trade. Marquez has 1 season above 4, with a 4.1 fWAR two seasons ago. 

Cease was in A and Eloy was in A+ during those trades. They weren't close to being MLB ready. I would bet that Vaughn and Kopech together put up a similar WAR total to Marquez NEXT season, even with service time gaming. 

You're doing our prospects dirty, Balta. Hahn should get tarred and feathered if he trades Vaughn and Kopech for Marquez

Edited November 22, 2020 by Yearnin' for Yermin

[ChiSoxFanMike]

I didn’t realize how good Joe Musgrove is. It just sucks that he only has 2 more years of team control, though I guess the Sox could try to get him to sign an extension if they traded for him.

[tray]

Sox really don't need to make many moves. 

Don't create a hole at second base by trading Madrigal who  is a perfect fit on this team.

If Kopech and Crochet make a starting rotation that already has Giolito and Keuchel  that would be awesome.

Sox would still have  Cease/Rodon/Dunning/ ReyLo  for the fifth spot or the bullpen.

I would like the Sox to sign McCann and then hold their cards unless they get blown away with some trade offer.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

7 hours ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Would any of you include Dane Dunning in Musgrove trade? Dunning had some great starts at the beginning of the season. Stuff isn't too overwhelming. He needs great command to be effective. Might be the time to sell high on him. 

I wouldn’t.  Dunning looks like the real deal, even if his ceiling is limited to being a quality #3 starter.  I’m giving up six years of that for two years of Musgrove.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

If I were Tampa Bay, I would not give up Snell for that deal as if I were moving Snell I would expect I could get better than that from someone else. You are adding Kopech to the list or I'll find better elsewhere. Kopech, Vaughn, Madrigal, and Cease - you've probably got a deal. That contract is expensive for Tampa Bay, but under control for 3 years for that money, with a Cy Young award, money that works for 28/30 teams, you're talking a Sale level deal for him.

Lol...four top 50 prospects is more than a Sale level package.  Your package is unprecedented and is candidly speaking a ridiculous proposal.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol...four top 50 prospects is more than a Sale level package.  Your package is unprecedented and is candidly speaking a ridiculous proposal.

Lol at Madrigal and Cease being top 50 prospects. People are trying to dump them because they’ve lost or never had confidence in them.

[Dick Allen]

41 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Lol at Madrigal and Cease being top 50 prospects. People are trying to dump them because they’ve lost or never had confidence in them.

If you go to their BP minor league page they will tell you if they were top 100 in BA, MLB and BP. They both were pre 2020. In fact, they both were top 26 guys for BP coming into this past 60 game season. 

Edited November 22, 2020 by Dick Allen

[poppysox]

4 hours ago, tray said:

Sox really don't need to make many moves. 

Don't create a hole at second base by trading Madrigal who  is a perfect fit on this team.

If Kopech and Crochet make a starting rotation that already has Giolito and Keuchel  that would be awesome.

Sox would still have  Cease/Rodon/Dunning/ ReyLo  for the fifth spot or the bullpen.

I would like the Sox to sign McCann and then hold their cards unless they get blown away with some trade offer.

 

I'm on your wavelength.  Free agency works fine for plugging holes with decent players but seldom for teams that win bidding wars.  Trades for other teams' stars usually result in overpays.  Trading our stars for their package of prospects works well as that is how we got where we are today.  Use our resources to strengthen the bullpen, solidify RF, and fine some depth for the rotation.  RH has a knack for signing great extensions and ultimately that leads to top dollar received when trading players down the line.  That is a good recipe for long term success.

[Dick Allen]

5 minutes ago, poppysox said:

I'm on your wavelength.  Free agency works fine for plugging holes with decent players but seldom for teams that win bidding wars.  Trades for other teams' stars usually result in overpays.  Trading our stars for their package of prospects works well as that is how we got where we are today.  Use our resources to strengthen the bullpen, solidify RF, and fine some depth for the rotation.  RH has a knack for signing great extensions and ultimately that leads to top dollar received when trading players down the line.  That is a good recipe for long term success.

This offseason will be interesting. There are going to be guys available for a lot less than they normally would command in prospect collateral as long as you take their contract.  Any team that is willing to add significantly to their payroll can improve a lot more this offseason than normal. Plus with Cleveland letting Santana walk, probably trading Lindor, you have to think they are getting to the point where holding on is going to be difficult,

Personally, as much as a guy like Springer makes the Sox offense nuts, I prefer they spend their cash on pitching, Dunning should be stronger in 2021. Kopech will be back, but who really knows with him. Hopefully Cease takes a step forward. Hopefully Lopez takes a step forward. But they still need more. And if everyone else works out, you have pieces to trade.