Offseason Targets

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Would much, much rather trade Madrigal than Cease

Same here and I say that as a Madrigal fan.

[bmags]

The case for cease is it might hurt but you are just pulling that production forward. We need some immediate impact.

Really hope Darvish happens, more so than even Springer.

[ChiSox59]

Just now, fathom said:

Because there’s only one difference making pitcher you can pay for and he’s going to make almost double what Yu will with way more years as well.

It's going to be interesting to see what Bauer signs for.  Mentioned this in another thread earlier today, but the only way he gets close to $40M AAV is if he takes a short term deal.  Cole is better and just signed for $32M AAV a year ago pre-pandemic.  

I'd happily pay Bauer $32M AAV over 4 years as opposed to trading two of Madrigal/Cease/Dunning to get Darvish on basically a slightly below market deal.  Plus, now they have to go spend at least $10M to fill 2B via FA, and now a future rotation fixture is also gone.  The cost for next year is basically the same once you add in the 2B FA.  

I am all for trading pieces that don't really fit our future puzzle, or moving some premier guys for a super elite player (such as Yelich, just as an example).  But I am not really looking to fill a hole with an expensive injury prone vet and create a hole that was filled by a cost controlled future fixture that will cost less than $1M for the next few seasons.  Doesn't compute to me unless the Sox are going to all of a sudden be one of the big spenders in baseball, and if that is the case, just go sign Bauer.    

[Flash]

With Clevinger TJS and out for '21, Padres will be aggressive. Mets will be aggressive. Angels will be aggressive. Dodgers will likely bid....maybe Red Sox and anyone who misses out on Bauer. If Cubs decide to market Darvish to highest bidder (and why wouldn't they?) The winner will either need to overpay in players or by taking on salary. Darvish finished 2nd in Cy Young voting and, when he is right, is among the best in the game. Darvish, Giolito and Keuchel would be amazing. The problem is there would be little left in the budget for RF, let alone Springer. 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

WHY TRADE OUR GOOD YOUNG FUTURE CORE PLAYERS WHEN WE CAN EASILY SIGN THE PLAYERS THAT WE NEED?
 

IT STILL MAKES NO SENSE TO ME.

It depends on your budget and how much FV you’re willing to give up to maximize your ability to win in the near-turn.  If we can sign Springer, I’m much more open to trading pieces for Darvish.

[ChiSox59]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

It depends on your budget and how much FV you’re willing to give up to maximize your ability to win in the near-turn.  If we can sign Springer, I’m much more open to trading pieces for Darvish.

Well, until we're proven otherwise, I think we need to operate under the assumption that $140M or so is going to be the top of budget.  Therefore trading cheap cost controlled assets for expensive vets on market rate deals is much less attractive than just filling holes via FA.  For the cost of Darvish + FA 2B youre likely damn near the AAV that Bauer would cost.  Obviously that discounts future years, but your still paying Darvish in 2022 and still need pay a 2B.  

Its the same analysis we went through on Machado vs. the collection of shit we brought in instead that cost the same amount.  

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, Flash said:

With Clevinger TJS and out for '21, Padres will be aggressive. Mets will be aggressive. Angels will be aggressive. Dodgers will likely bid....maybe Red Sox and anyone who misses out on Bauer. If Cubs decide to market Darvish to highest bidder (and why wouldn't they?) The winner will either need to overpay in players or by taking on salary. Darvish finished 2nd in Cy Young voting and, when he is right, is among the best in the game. Darvish, Giolito and Keuchel would be amazing. The problem is there would be little left in the budget for RF, let alone Springer. 

We have no idea who will be aggressive in terms of adding salary.  We also don’t know how teams will value Darvish going forward.  He was beyond awesome last year and during the 2H of 2019, but he’s had rough stretches before, has had injury issues in the past, and will be 34 years old next season.  Just a point of reference, but ZIPS has him as a 2.7 win pitcher over the remaining years of his contract.  While I think he will likely outperform that, some teams’ projection models may also see serious regression coming.  You are also assuming he’s the only impact pitcher that could be available other than Bauer.  We already know that Lynn is likely to be traded.  Marquez’s name has been floated around.  There could be other guys we’re unaware that could be had.  I certainly don’t think Darvish will come cheap, but let’s not get crazy & pretend this is the Chris Sale sweepstakes.

[black jack]

Trading the depth is stupid, short sighted, and always bites you in the ass.

I'd rather sign a B level pitcher and roll with what we have then trade anyone of substance. 

Give the new pitching coach a chance.  Cease, Lopez, Kopech, and Dunning might be all we need. 

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Well, until we're proven otherwise, I think we need to operate under the assumption that $140M or so is going to be the top of budget.  Therefore trading cheap cost controlled assets for expensive vets on market rate deals is much less attractive than just filling holes via FA.  For the cost of Darvish + FA 2B youre likely damn near the AAV that Bauer would cost.  Obviously that discounts future years, but your still paying Darvish in 2022 and still need pay a 2B.  

Its the same analysis we went through on Machado vs. the collection of shit we brought in instead that cost the same amount.  

Look, I don’t disagree.  IMO, Bauer should be the priority.  Unfortunately, it could be as simple as Reinsdorf not willing to go to a certain year or dollar amount threshold with a pitcher, which takes Bauer out of the equation and forces us to consider guys like Darvish & Lynn via trade.  It would dumb, but it honestly wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

[fathom]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Look, I don’t disagree.  IMO, Bauer should be the priority.  Unfortunately, it could be as simple as Reinsdorf not willing to go to a certain year or dollar amount threshold with a pitcher, which takes Bauer out of the equation and forces us to consider guys like Darvish & Lynn via trade.  It would dumb, but it honestly wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

Yep chisox was right with everything but I think a lot of us are skeptical.

[Flash]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We have no idea who will be aggressive in terms of adding salary.  We also don’t know how teams will value Darvish going forward.  He was beyond awesome last year and during the 2H of 2019, but he’s had rough stretches before, has had injury issues in the past, and will be 34 years old next season.  Just a point of reference, but ZIPS has him as a 2.7 win pitcher over the remaining years of his contract.  While I think he will likely outperform that, some teams’ projection models may also see serious regression coming.  You are also assuming he’s the only impact pitcher that could be available other than Bauer.  We already know that Lynn is likely to be traded.  Marquez’s name has been floated around.  There could be other guys we’re unaware that could be had.  I certainly don’t think Darvish will come cheap, but let’s not get crazy & pretend this is the Chris Sale sweepstakes.

Since you told me to stress it through BTV, I did. Cease and Darvish are of approximately equal SV. That said, Darvish is a win now, top of the rotation stud. Every one of the teams I mentioned would love to have Darvish, hence he will cost more than Cease will straight up. Of course no one knows who will be aggressive in terms of adding payroll in this environment but, as with every opinion offered on this board, we can only make assumptions based upon prior behavior. Otherwise, we might as well just sit back and let Portillos drive the narrative.     

[Tnetennba]

If he has real intel, there's no way that guess is accurate.  Why would the Cubs add cash to move a Cy candidate, while also taking back such a light package in return?

[Harold's Leg Lift]

21 minutes ago, black jack said:

Trading the depth is stupid, short sighted, and always bites you in the ass.

I'd rather sign a B level pitcher and roll with what we have then trade anyone of substance. 

Give the new pitching coach a chance.  Cease, Lopez, Kopech, and Dunning might be all we need. 

This is why self scouting is paramount right now.  They have to trade the players they don't see as future difference makers before they lose all their value.  

[bmags]

I disagree trading from depth always backfires. No more often than maxing out budget too early prevents needed upgrades. You gotta take what’s in front of you. 

[iWiN4PreP]

No way do you trade Madrigal.

My dream scenario is what @YourWhatHurts posted.

Taking Darvish by also taking Heywards contract.

Heyward is actually PERFECT for our team. Amazing defense, left handed, and a decent enough bat. His contract is awful, which would allow us to get Darvish for little IMO.

I don't know just *how* realistic that is, but that is the type of trade a winning franchise looks to make. 

 

P.S. the part where YourWhatHurts losses us is when the Cubs have to add their #1 prospect to the deal, lol

Edited November 18, 2020 by iWiN4PreP

[maloney.adam]

1 hour ago, black jack said:

Trading the depth is stupid, short sighted, and always bites you in the ass.

I'd rather sign a B level pitcher and roll with what we have then trade anyone of substance. 

Give the new pitching coach a chance.  Cease, Lopez, Kopech, and Dunning might be all we need. 

Stuck in the rebuild years eyyy?

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

Yep chisox was right with everything but I think a lot of us are skeptical.

I’m skeptical too. It’s hard not to be. But that’s what makes trading a guy like Madrigal so tough. He’s every bit as good as any FA short of Lamaheiu and to a lease extent Semien and he’s cheap as dirt for awhile. For a team with a budget, why just punt that $10-12M a year in savings on 2B to take on a very good SP, but an injury prone one, making 8-90% what he’d get on the open market this offseason. Not to mention Cease / Dunning too. The math doesn’t make sense. It’s the same reason some (most?) think the math doesn’t work in Bauer. It’s the same issue. 

Now if we’re playing with limited regard for a budget, trade Madrigal+ for Yu and sign Semien to play 2B along with at worst at Joc type and another SP and a closer, then OK. But I just don’t see it. 

Love or hate Madrigal, he has a very clear role on this team and we’re not exactly in the position to be giving away young cheap controllable and potentially impact SP. The proposed move doesn’t make sense.  

[Harold's Leg Lift]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I’m skeptical too. It’s hard not to be. But that’s what makes trading a guy like Madrigal so tough. He’s every bit as good as any FA short of Lamaheiu and to a lease extent Semien and he’s cheap as dirt for awhile. For a team with a budget, why just punt that $10-12M a year in savings on 2B to take on a very good SP, but an injury prone one, making 8-90% what he’d get on the open market this offseason. Not to mention Cease / Dunning too. The math doesn’t make sense. It’s the same reason some (most?) think the math doesn’t work in Bauer. It’s the same issue. 

Now if we’re playing with limited regard for a budget, trade Madrigal+ for Yu and sign Semien to play 2B along with at worst at Joc type and another SP and a closer, then OK. But I just don’t see it. 

Love or hate Madrigal, he has a very clear role on this team and we’re not exactly in the position to be giving away young cheap controllable and potentially impact SP. The proposed move doesn’t make sense.  

That's not true.  They offered him in a trade proposal at the deadline. 

[SoCalChiSox]

Id like to see what Katz can do with Cease. 

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, SouthWallace said:

If he has real intel, there's no way that guess is accurate.  Why would the Cubs add cash to move a Cy candidate, while also taking back such a light package in return?

I wish Portillo's guy would stop tweeting and call out my number for my Combo and Fries while they are still warm. 

Dipped with sweet peppers. Have my own hot peppers at home.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

That's not true.  They offered him in a trade proposal at the deadline. 

That's not even what I meant.  I mean he has an obvious place within the construction of the roster.  Which he does.

So let me ask you this, since I am sure you'd be tickled to see the Sox trade him.  Who do they sign to play 2B?

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

That's not even what I meant.  I mean he has an obvious place within the construction of the roster.  Which he does.

So let me ask you this, since I am sure you'd be tickled to see the Sox trade him.  Who do they sign to play 2B?

He thinks Mendick is better than Madrigal so don’t be surprised if that’s his answer.

[Flash]

There is no reason to believe the Sox would consider trading Madrigal, no reason the Cubs would have interest in him and no reason to believe that PortillosHamburger has any information on anything. 

[The Hawk]

3 hours ago, bmags said:

The case for cease is it might hurt but you are just pulling that production forward. We need some immediate impact.

Really hope Darvish happens, more so than even Springer.

I like Darvish a lot. Who would you think it would take to get him?

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Flash said:

There is no reason to believe the Sox would consider trading Madrigal, no reason the Cubs would have interest in him and no reason to believe that PortillosHamburger has any information on anything. 

Well there is reason to believe Portillo’s may have information given their past Tweets on the Bummer extension and Jared Kelley’s bonus.

And there is reason to believe the Sox would consider trading Madrigal as they offered him up in a deadline trade this year.