Offseason Targets

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, GreenSox said:

There should be no "all-in" years from where the Sox are now. Every year for the foreseeable future should be a playoff team, with a chance to win (unless they decide to resume their 2014-16 clown show).

My theory is that if you keep your guys and let them sort themselves out, you get more cracks at the playoffs which gives you more opportunities to win a WS. 

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

The Cubs rebuild went very similar...and they had a "suprise" good team a year early and won the world series the next season. Sox had their surprise year in 2020 and 2021 should be all in with one more starter, right? What is holding them back since every position player is basically locked in. 

They should learn from the Cubs that the window closes very quickly if you trade your 2nd wave of prospects. The Sox have a more numerous 2nd wave than the Cubs did. Should they trade some of them? Sure. There are some guys that you absolutely have to keep. Kopech, Vaughn and Crochet are in that group. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Orlando]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

This is the first offseason in which the window is officially open. Be patient and see what you have in your guys before making moves. 

I am sorry but I can't get behind this. Patience is over. If the window is open its open. 

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Orlando said:

I am sorry but I can't get behind this. Patience is over. If the window is open its open. 

If they're running 162 I'd wait until the TDL to make a move, and give some of their guys another 1/2 season to prove themselves or not.

Like I said, I'm not a huge Cease or Madrigal fan so I'd trade them in a deal this  winter for a pitcher with 3+ years of control. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Orlando]

1 minute ago, EloyJenkins said:

The Cubs rebuild went very similar...and they had a "suprise" good team a year early and won the world series the next season. Sox had their surprise year in 2020 and 2021 should be all in with one more starter, right? What is holding them back since every position player is basically locked in. 

Yes. The Cubs did not have their core locked up the way the Sox do. We cannot say that if the Sox trade like the Cubs, their window will close soon. Cease, Dunning, Steiver etc can all be replaced 

[ChiSox59]

3 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

The Cubs rebuild went very similar...and they had a "suprise" good team a year early and won the world series the next season. Sox had their surprise year in 2020 and 2021 should be all in with one more starter, right? What is holding them back since every position player is basically locked in. 

I don't think anything is "holding them back", except for maybe Jerry's reluctance to spend the cash necessary to turn this team into an immediate WS contender by going out and signing Bauer, Springer, Quintana, Pederson and a closer and going to business.

But now is not the time to push all our chips in via trade and move really any of our élite young talent.  Trade from the second tier, or just use money and sign players.  

[EloyJenkins]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

There are some guys that you absolutely have to keep. Kopech, Vaughn and Crochet are in that group. 

100% agree on those 3. Cease and Dunning for hopefully 2+ years of control preferably and everyone else should be tradable for rentals outside of Jared Kelley added to your untouchables. 

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, Orlando said:

Yes. The Cubs did not have their core locked up the way the Sox do. We cannot say that if the Sox trade like the Cubs, their window will close soon. Cease, Dunning, Steiver etc can all be replaced 

Those guys? sure. You don't trade Kopech, Crochet or Vaughn though. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Chisoxfn]

16 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It covers one season, and costs you some amount of capital that can be helping you in years 2-6 of this run.  If I am trading those kinds of guys, I want a difference maker that will be around.

I concur.  

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, EloyJenkins said:

100% agree on those 3. Cease and Dunning for hopefully 2+ years of control preferably and everyone else should be tradable for rentals outside of Jared Kelley added to your untouchables. 

Yeah Agreed on Kelley. 

[35thstreetswarm]

1 minute ago, Orlando said:

I am sorry but I can't get behind this. Patience is over. If the window is open its open. 

Precisely.  The time for punting whole seasons is long gone.  You can’t predict in advance which part of your window will give you the best shot.  Every season is precious now. 
 

That being said, I’m dead against depleting our hard-won assets to fill holes that could just as easily be filled through free agency, especially when we have plenty to spend.  I think that’s where we are this offseason.

[Jack Parkman]

If I'm the Sox seeing if Giolito is willing to take a 5/65-70 deal to buy out the remaining Arb years and 2 years of FA is high on my priority list. He's proven enough to me. 2 seasons of strong #2 performance and a no-hitter are enough to pay him in my book. 

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Precisely.  The time for punting whole seasons is long gone.  You can’t predict in advance which part of your window will give you the best shot.  Every season is precious now. 
 

That being said, I’m dead against depleting our hard-won assets to fill holes that could just as easily be filled through free agency, especially when we have plenty to spend.  I think that’s where we are this offseason.

Yep. Upgrade with money, not prospects. 

The Sox offense and top of the rotation is good enough that they aren't punting seasons if they keep all of the prospects and sign one B tier pitcher this winter. 

Like I said, Sugano and Arihara are also options.....if they're willing to go somewhere other than the West Coast/NYC/Boston. 

I think that the Sox should sign one B tier pitcher and let Cease/Dunning/Kopech compete for the other two spots and sort themselves out. If none do well, add at the TDL. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[35thstreetswarm]

13 minutes ago, Orlando said:

Yes. The Cubs did not have their core locked up the way the Sox do. We cannot say that if the Sox trade like the Cubs, their window will close soon. Cease, Dunning, Steiver etc can all be replaced 

See, I take a slightly different lesson from the Cubs.  Whether they had their core “locked up” at the time or not, they basically kept it together and still declined faster than most predicted.  Hell, they’re talking about non-tendering their MVP centerpiece five years after fighting for an extra season of control.  Just because we’ll have our core together in, say, 2024 doesn’t mean we’ll be good then.  

Edited November 30, 2020 by 35thstreetswarm

[GreenSox]

6 minutes ago, Orlando said:

Yes. The Cubs did not have their core locked up the way the Sox do. We cannot say that if the Sox trade like the Cubs, their window will close soon. Cease, Dunning, Steiver etc can all be replaced 

They got 2 of those guys through rebuilding trades; Steiver is the only pitcher in the rotation or near-term prospect that they got from drafting, so I'm not so sure how easy it is for this organization.  And you need some depth as well.  Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, Dunning, Lopez (who probably should be in the pen), Steiver.  The Sox need a solid starter, but they need one on top of those guys, not in lieu.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

58 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I agree with the Dunning part... but Lynn is far better right now.

But if we don't win the World Series now what? Give up another 6 years of another promising young pitcher for another rental. Can't keep doing that. That's why most would rather just sign a pitcher or 2 for a year or 2 and see what we got with Kopech , Dunning ,Cease and Crochet at least. We can give up pitchers behind those 4 since they won't fit the window as well .

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

But if we don't win the World Series now what? Give up another 6 years of another promising young pitcher for another rental. Can't keep doing that. That's why most would rather just sign a pitcher or 2 for a year or 2 and see what we got with Kopech , Dunning ,Cease and Crochet at least. We can give up pitchers behind those 4 since they won't fit the window as well .

As much as I like Jared Kelley, he's a guy that I see as a top trade chip in a year or two to acquire a guy that can put them over the top. As a HS kid, unless he just flies through the minors, he's not going to be ready for at least 3-4 seasons from this one. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[he gone.]

I don't understand why our window needs to be open for only a certain amount of time. I'd like to have a beachfront villa with the window open continuously for decades. Sure there will be times when storms roll in and you need to close the window for a day or two (year or two), but in general, we should have that window open forever. 

 

With how a lot of our contracts are structured we should be able to add a few FA to supplement this current run while adding more minor league talent over the next 3-5 years that should be able to take the reigns from a Moncada, Anderson, Grandal, Giolito, etc, etc. We can now focus our attention to adding higher upside high school guys rather than always focusing on the college ready seniors. We can use that time to develop young signings from Cuba or Latin America. There's no reason we cant be the Rays but with financial flexibility to be in the top 1/4th in regards to payroll when we need to be aggressive and strike when the iron is hot . This team is set up for success & i personally don't see any reason why we already need to begin mortgaging any minor league system to supplement this current team when there are plenty readily available pieces in FA at reasonable demands. 

In a perfect world you make smart business decisions like trading McCann midseason for a prospect knowing that 2020 wasn't the year. You make a decision when a Moncada or Eloy contract ends that you can let them walk because you have another young talented guy ... 

 

Just don't think the Cubs model is the one to follow here. The Cubs in my opinion weren't all that successful in their handling of the situation. They gave up a lot of good, young talent in Eloy, Torres, etc. - overpaid for Kimbrel, Chatwood as supplemental pieces, and now are in a position where they have to do another tear down rather than a retool. The Sox can avoid that with how this is all setting up and that shoudl be the goal. In order to do so? I would say someone like a Bauer fits very well asuming he goes for the AAV over the duration of contract. It would allow for his contract to expire as some of our other bigger FA contracts expire and allow us to foster a new round of supplemental pieces for the next turnover of talent. Just my two cents. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

Lance Lynn is much better, much much better than Dunning is today.

Of course he is because Lynn has a track record and Dunning doesn't. Also because of that the odds are he will be better than Dunning next year. But I wouldn't book it.

Every promising pitcher you give up in a trade for 1 year of a player is a good way to shorten your window of contention when you don't win the World Series and you have to rinse and repeat the next year until you 're out of the playoffs with no prospects left and no championship.

We desperately need another young pitcher to step up. Keuchel isn't going to be around forever and Lynn would be just a year. Our odds increase of a pitcher stepping up to join Giolito if we keep the ones who are MLB ready.

[southsider2k5]

38 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

The Cubs rebuild went very similar...and they had a "suprise" good team a year early and won the world series the next season. Sox had their surprise year in 2020 and 2021 should be all in with one more starter, right? What is holding them back since every position player is basically locked in. 

I said it last year, and will say it again this year.  The Sox are not really a World Champion team as of now.  Even a Bauer and Springer type set of additions doesn't put them into the elite level.  I think they are probably a playoff team, but there is a clear separation between them and say the Dodgers.h That isn't to say they couldn't win if a lot of things break their way, but they definitely aren't in the stage where they are at their peak.  With so many kids on the roster still learning on the job, it feels like 22 or 23 is when you get into more of a sense of urgency.

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I said it last year, and will say it again this year.  The Sox are not really a World Champion team as of now.  Even a Bauer and Springer type set of additions doesn't put them into the elite level.  I think they are probably a playoff team, but there is a clear separation between them and say the Dodgers.h That isn't to say they couldn't win if a lot of things break their way, but they definitely aren't in the stage where they are at their peak.  With so many kids on the roster still learning on the job, it feels like 22 or 23 is when you get into more of a sense of urgency.

Agreed. They still need to grow. They're absolutely not at the level of the Dodgers, Yankees, or Rays yet. 

Are they the AL Central favorites going into the offseason? Absolutely. but they're still a year or two from being at the peak of their powers. 

Plus, we have no idea what Moncada is or isn't going to be post-covid. Him not being at least an allstar caliber player creates another problem, because they're paying him as such. I tend to be optimistic that he'll be ok.

Edited November 30, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

33 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If I'm the Sox seeing if Giolito is willing to take a 5/65-70 deal to buy out the remaining Arb years and 2 years of FA is high on my priority list. He's proven enough to me. 2 seasons of strong #2 performance and a no-hitter are enough to pay him in my book. 

That is incredibly low.  You are probably looking for something like 70 million just for the last three years of that deal.  You need a number like $25 million (or more) for those two free agency years.  Lucas is probably at least a $30 million per year pitcher on the open market.  He is probably something like a 6/12/20 for his arb years, plus 30 per if he goes year to year.  That's almost 90 million dollars.  Maybe you get by with 5/10/17.5 and 25/25 an a 30 option for year 6?

[EloyJenkins]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Agreed. They still need to grow. They're absolutely not at the level of the Dodgers, Yankees, or Rays yet. 

Sox will never be the 240 million dollar payroll Dodgers. Rays were just a young team in 2019 as well and honestly...the Yankees are good, but are very beatable in the playoffs especially. I also think 2022-23 is probably the realistic "win the world series" peak of this team...but 2021 could be very well winnable with a couple key FA acquisitions. 

[Tnetennba]

46 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

This is the first offseason in which the window is officially open. Be patient and see what you have in your guys before making moves. 

Patience is for rebuilding, the window is now.  The roster holes are well known as are the MLB ready prospects available to step in.  There is no reason the enter the season without addressing team needs.  

[Flash]

Bauer - w/Yankees out of the picture and Mets a big question mark, I don't see too many teams lining up to throw @$30M/AAV at him. Dodgers don't need him and Boston seems unlikely. It wouldn't shock me if WS quietly got something done here.