Offseason Targets

[Jack Parkman]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

That is incredibly low.  You are probably looking for something like 70 million just for the last three years of that deal.  You need a number like $25 million (or more) for those two free agency years.  Lucas is probably at least a $30 million per year pitcher on the open market.  He is probably something like a 6/12/20 for his arb years, plus 30 per if he goes year to year.  That's almost 90 million dollars.  Maybe you get by with 5/10/17.5 and 25/25 an a 30 option for year 6?

Oops. I was doing the math over 4 years instead of 5. 

Yeah, 5/90 is about right. 

 

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Flash said:

Bauer - w/Yankees out of the picture and Mets a big question mark, I don't see too many teams lining up to throw @$30M/AAV at him. Dodgers don't need him and Boston seems unlikely. It wouldn't shock me if WS quietly got something done here. 

Don't sleep on the Padres, Blue Jays and Braves. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[35thstreetswarm]

4 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

Sox will never be the 240 million dollar payroll Dodgers. Rays were just a young team in 2019 as well and honestly...the Yankees are good, but are very beatable in the playoffs especially. I also think 2022-23 is probably the realistic "win the world series" peak of this team...but 2021 could be very well winnable with a couple key FA acquisitions. 

Agreed.  Plenty of teams that turn out to be contenders are not obvious, consensus contenders before their first contending season--last year's Rays being the most recent example.  I wouldn't bet my house on 2021 being the best year of the Sox window, but it wouldn't shock me if that turned out to be the case.  Since we keep talking about the Cubs, it would have seemed ridiculous to suggest in November of 2014 that the Cubs would have a better shot at a title in 2015 than they would in, say, 2018.  But they did.

[scs787]

Am I the only one comfortable "Trusting the process" and letting Cease, Dunning, and Kopech all have spots in the rotation? 

 

We spent years getting excited about these guys and now were already looking to replace at least one of them. 

 

Maybe sign a swing guy who gives you some starts while Kopech gets his feet wet again. How was Q out of the pen? 

 

That said, while I'm comfortable with it, and don't think its them simply being cheap, I'm still game for Bauer and trading Cease for a RFer. 

[Flash]

9 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Don't sleep on the Padres, Blue Jays and Braves. 

Blue Jays and Braves maybe due to publicly traded corporate parents but I think Braves are set and that kind of move isn't their style. Padres...maybe, but they're carrying some hefty commitments already although it might make sense w/Clevenger out.

[MiddleCoastBias]

50 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

As much as I like Jared Kelley, he's a guy that I see as a top trade chip in a year or two to acquire a guy that can put them over the top. As a HS kid, unless he just flies through the minors, he's not going to be ready for at least 3-4 seasons from this one. 

Weren't you also arguing that this is what happened to the cubs when they traded away the next wave? Kelley maturing in 3-4 years is EXACTLY why I want to keep him (and Crochet) to step in to be effective once Keuchel et al are old/gone.

Having high-ceiling arms in the farm to act as the next wave is exactly the kind of prospect I want to keep.

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

Weren't you also arguing that this is what happened to the cubs when they traded away the next wave? Kelley maturing in 3-4 years is EXACTLY why I want to keep him (and Crochet) to step in to be effective once Keuchel et al are old/gone.

Having high-ceiling arms in the farm to act as the next wave is exactly the kind of prospect I want to keep.

Pitching prospects are fickle. Kelley's status to me depends on whether or not the Sox can extend Giolito. 

As much as I want them to do it, I kinda find a Giolito extension unlikely at this point due to money tied up in the position player group. 

 

I'm on the fence with Kelley. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, scs787 said:

Am I the only one comfortable "Trusting the process" and letting Cease, Dunning, and Kopech all have spots in the rotation? 

 

We spent years getting excited about these guys and now were already looking to replace at least one of them. 

 

Maybe sign a swing guy who gives you some starts while Kopech gets his feet wet again. How was Q out of the pen? 

 

That said, while I'm comfortable with it, and don't think its them simply being cheap, I'm still game for Bauer and trading Cease for a RFer. 

With the pitching coach change, I would like to see this group given at least one new year for sure.

 

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

Weren't you also arguing that this is what happened to the cubs when they traded away the next wave? Kelley maturing in 3-4 years is EXACTLY why I want to keep him (and Crochet) to step in to be effective once Keuchel et al are old/gone.

Having high-ceiling arms in the farm to act as the next wave is exactly the kind of prospect I want to keep.

Yes.  The longer term arriving crowd is very important for this to be a Cubs type of rebuild, or a Dodgers/Yankees type of one where this isn't like a 3-5 year thing, but a long term thing for the White Sox.  This franchise HAS to learn how to produce its own prospects  a high rate.

[MiddleCoastBias]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Pitching prospects are fickle. Kelley's status to me depends on whether or not the Sox can extend Giolito or not. 

As much as I want them to do it, I kinda find a Giolito extension unlikely at this point due to money tied up in the position player group. 

I agree on all counts, and also think adding Gio to the list of studs that needs to be replaced means holding onto Kelley and Crochet as long as possible.

[bmags]

57 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Of course he is because Lynn has a track record and Dunning doesn't. Also because of that the odds are he will be better than Dunning next year. But I wouldn't book it.

Every promising pitcher you give up in a trade for 1 year of a player is a good way to shorten your window of contention when you don't win the World Series and you have to rinse and repeat the next year until you 're out of the playoffs with no prospects left and no championship.

We desperately need another young pitcher to step up. Keuchel isn't going to be around forever and Lynn would be just a year. Our odds increase of a pitcher stepping up to join Giolito if we keep the ones who are MLB ready.

Listen, you don't have to like trading Dunning to see what I was responding to was saying that Lynn was only a marginal upgrade (if any) over dunning was pure silliness.

[Baron]

15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

With the pitching coach change, I would like to see this group given at least one new year for sure.

 

Yes yes I too would like to see Cease and Dunning in the playoffs. I would love to see  AL teams that aren't afraid to start winning tee off on those guys. They won't take the time they have in the playoffs for granted like many on here do. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Baron

[Baron]

38 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Don't sleep on the Padres, Blue Jays and Braves. 

Damn someone forgot to tell those guys to have patience! What the hell are they doing trying to compete for a World Series next year. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Baron

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Baron said:

Yes yes I too would like to see Cease and Dunning in the playoffs. I would love to see how far AL teams that aren't afraid to start winning tee off on those guys. They won't take the time they have in the playoffs for granted like many on here do. 

Good to know that players can never grow and change, and will always be the same in perpetuity.  I wonder why we had management changes if nothing else was going to change and only trades and free agency can save us?

[SCCWS]

29 minutes ago, Flash said:

Bauer - w/Yankees out of the picture and Mets a big question mark, I don't see too many teams lining up to throw @$30M/AAV at him. Dodgers don't need him and Boston seems unlikely. It wouldn't shock me if WS quietly got something done here. 

It seems like there were a lot of rumors mid- November but seems like has gone quiet. San Francisco and San Diego could be dark-horses. I don't think Yankees are out of picture when Boston and Mets still have interest. 

[southsider2k5]

 

[Baron]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Good to know that players can never grow and change, and will always be the same in perpetuity.  I wonder why we had management changes if nothing else was going to change and only trades and free agency can save us?

Times a wasting whether you like it or not. Cease and Lopez should have stepped up last year if they wanted to cement themselves in the rotation. That's why they didn't get a playoff start. 

Hell if your good with the rotation. Why not give Lopez a shot? Stop leaning on the bullpen too let them eat the games they blow up in. We can waste years for more development what's more games during the season? 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Baron

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Baron said:

Times a wasting whether you like it or not. Cease and Lopez should have stepped up last year if they wanted to cement themselves in the rotation. That's why they didn't get a playoff start. 

So what you are saying is that you would have released Lucas Giolito after 2018?

[Baron]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

So what you are saying is that you would have released Lucas Giolito after 2018?

Here's a better question. Can we go through a year of having more pitchers with their struggles happening throughout the season? How many more years do you give them? 1,2 or 3? Why not keep trying in that case. 

[EloyJenkins]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

So what you are saying is that you would have released Lucas Giolito after 2018?

Touché. Does Cease have the ceiling that Gio has? Wasn't Gio the top pitching prospect in all of baseball for 2 years? I can't remember where Dylan peaked at. 

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

Touché. Does Cease have the ceiling that Gio has? Wasn't Gio the top pitching prospect in all of baseball for 2 years? I can't remember where Dylan peaked at. 

Cease peaked at about 25-ish. 

And yes, Giolito was the top pitching prospect in baseball for 2 seasons. 

But he's a completely different pitcher now than he was then. That guy had a 98-99 mph fastball and a hammer of a curveball. 

Now he's a 95 mph fastball with insane late life and a ++change and +slider. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Baron said:

Here's a better question. Can we go through a year of having more pitchers with their struggles happening throughout the season? How many more years do you give them? 1,2 or 3? Why not keep trying in that case. 

Pitchers struggle every year, sometimes even really good ones.  How quickly do we quit on each pitcher?  Dylan Cease still has yet to pitch an entire season's worth of games.  Lucas Giolito was a complete failure after his first year.  Were you trading him away for a pitcher with one year of control?  Greg Maddux's first year and a half in MLB were Cease-esque.  Randy Johnson didn't start to get it until 26, but was still leading the world in walks at ages 26-28.  Carlos Carrasco struggled in parts of 4 different major league seasons before breaking out at age 27.  Trevor Bauer didn't put up an ERA+ of over 100 until his 3rd full season in the majors, plus two more partial ones.  Lance Lynn himself is two seasons removed from an 84 ERA+ season with his career world BB/9 stat.

I could go on and on here, but hopefully the point is clear by now.

[Baron]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Pitchers struggle every year, sometimes even really good ones.  How quickly do we quit on each pitcher?  Dylan Cease still has yet to pitch an entire season's worth of games.  Lucas Giolito was a complete failure after his first year.  Were you trading him away for a pitcher with one year of control?  Greg Maddux's first year and a half in MLB were Cease-esque.  Randy Johnson didn't start to get it until 26, but was still leading the world in walks at ages 26-28.  Carlos Carrasco struggled in parts of 4 different major league seasons before breaking out at age 27.  Trevor Bauer didn't put up an ERA+ of over 100 until his 3rd full season in the majors, plus two more partial ones.  Lance Lynn himself is two seasons removed from an 84 ERA+ season with his career world BB/9 stat.

I could go on and on here, but hopefully the point is clear by now.

How many years and struggles do you think we are going to give him then? Also why not Lopez? Let's give Lopez a shot. Your good with watching them "develop" during the 8 run innings during important games right? 

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, Baron said:

How many years and struggles do you think we are going to give him then? Also why not Lopez? Let's give Lopez a shot. Your good with watching them "develop" during the 8 run innings during important games right? 

I have zero problems with adding another starter up front in free agency, adding a depth starter, and then letting Lopez, Cease, Kopech and Dunning battle it out for the last spot or two.  You own all of these guys rights for 4 to 7 years still, why waste that ownership?  The need to act rashly just isn't prudent here.  You have all of these assets, why not try to maximize them as the cheapest possible options for your own team?

What I don't want to do is start giving these guys away after a minimal amount of major league struggles and then needing them down the line after they break out when the guy who you got in the deal has left in free agency.

[fathom]

Cease deserves another chance as a starter. Lopez deserves nothing.